So, who do the Seahawks sign next?

[boogiewithstu2007]

Well there is speculation that the Broncos are telling Manning that if he is coming back it is with a pay cut. People are reading into Elway at the combine really trying to get around any questions about Manning and his contract. Pretty much Manning's camp has said he is fully healthy and the Broncos want him back but I think the Broncos are trying to see if Manning will live up to his word of saying he would do anything to help the team win a championship and for the Broncos they see that as him saying he is willing to take the pay cut and maybe free up about $9 million in cap space. I'm actually glad the Broncos are possibly playing a bit of hard ball with him and his camp. I love Manning and I want him back and I think he will be back but we have too many young talented players up for contracts to let our rental in Manning hamper us for the future.

Yeah man ... I doubt Manning will have trouble putting food on the table if he takes a pay cut... If he's serious about ending his career with a title he needs to think team first and foremost... It's not like he hasn't had big payday's already.... If he's serious he'll take the cut... Interesting to see how it play's out....

 

[HaroldSeattle]

You make a good point blstoker. No one will ever know about these "what if" At the end of the day SA disappointed the fans and that is what he's going to be remembered for.

 

[HaroldSeattle]

I think

Yeah man ... I doubt Manning will have trouble putting food on the table if he takes a pay cut... If he's serious about ending his career with a title he needs to think team first and foremost... It's not like he hasn't had big payday's already.... If he's serious he'll take the cut... Interesting to see how it play's out....

It's to late for him to win a title, regardless if he takes a pay cut IMO.

 

[jerseyhawksfan79]

I think

It's to late for him to win a title, regardless if he takes a pay cut IMO.

Manning's arm strength may not be what it used to be, but he still has tremendous talent around him. Plus if CJ Anderson is the real deal at RB they still have a very good shot at making a SB run.

 

[HaroldSeattle]

Manning's arm strength may not be what it used to be, but he still has tremendous talent around him. Plus if CJ Anderson is the real deal at RB they still have a very good shot at making a SB run.

Agree to disagree.

 

[JMR]

It's a huge risk giving an older (or high mileage if you don't like that word) RB a big money deal. It doesn't work out often. It didn't with SA, even though you're typing a lot to defend it. That's pretty much the point. High risk.

 

[HaroldSeattle]

It's a huge risk giving an older (or high mileage if you don't like that word) RB a big money deal. It doesn't work out often. It didn't with SA, even though you're typing a lot to defend it. That's pretty much the point. High risk.

It's also a risk not to sign the heart of the team next to RW. Heck he may decide to hang it up any ways. SA wasn't as important IMO.

 

[HaroldSeattle]

It's a huge risk giving an older (or high mileage if you don't like that word) RB a big money deal. It doesn't work out often. It didn't with SA, even though you're typing a lot to defend it. That's pretty much the point. High risk.

It's also a risk not to sign the heart of the team next to RW. Heck he may decide to hang it up any ways. SA wasn't as important IMO.

 

[blstoker]

It's a huge risk giving an older (or high mileage if you don't like that word) RB a big money deal. It doesn't work out often. It didn't with SA, even though you're typing a lot to defend it. That's pretty much the point. High risk.

Any contract is a risk. Aging RB, yeah, it's typically a good thing to avoid big deals, but in this case the contract was more like a QB's contract in that I highly doubt anyone involved ever expected Alexander to receive $62 million, it was just a pat on the back to let him feel good about being the highest paid running back. Alexander's cap number in 2006 and 2007 was actually lower than it was in 2005. The only reason his 2008 number was higher was because they cut him and his dead money was $6.9 million. There was no reason to think that his decline would start in 2006, especially since he had been healthy his entire career. It's unfortunate that he became a walking injury report his last two seasons in Seattle, but it's hard to look at the time of giving him the contract and think that they should have seen their MVP would have that happen after never missing a game.

From 2000-2005 the NFL had 14 1000 yard rushers who were 30 or older (9 more with 800 or more yards). The demise of elite running backs when they turn 30 is overblown. It's mostly that they aren't running for gaudy numbers anymore, not that they aren't effective. Here's the RBs who achieved 1000 yards after 30 from 2000 to 2005:

Emmitt Smith - Played until he was 35, including 3 1000 yard seasons from 30+ (1999-2001) and had under 900 yards only once. Had 3329 touches going into 1999 (the year he turned 30)

Tiki Barber - Played until he was 31, had 2 1000 yard seasons, running for a total of 3522 yards in 2005 and 2006, his best 2 seasons (also had 995 yards receiving). Was criticized for leaving at the age of 31 after being so successful. Had 2007 touches entering 2005.

Curtis Martin - Played until he was 32, had 2 1000 yard seasons, including NFL rushing title in 2004. Had 2981 touches going into 2003.

Corey Dillon - Played until he was 32, had 1 1000 yard season, but had 3180 rushing yards from 2004-2006 and 37 rushing TDs. Had 2057 touches entering 2004 season.

Priest Holmes - Played until he was 34, had 1 1000 yard season, had 2900 yards and 47 touchdowns in 5 years, including missing 45 games from 2004-2007. Had 1319 touches entering 2003 season.

Warrick Dunn - Played until he was 33. had 2 1000 yard seasons, had 4062 yards in 4 seasons. 2065 touches before 2005 season.

Ricky Watters - Played until he was 32, had 2 1000 yard seasons (both we 1200 yard seasons), had 2770 yards rushing in 3 years. 2300 touches entering 1999 season.

Garrison Hearst - Played until he was 32, had 1 1000 yard season, had 3027 yards in 3 years (only 1 under 750). 1279 touches entering 2001 season.

Lamar Smith - Played until he was 33, 1 1000 yard season (his only one in his career) had 2905 yards in 4 years (only 1 under 730). 557 touches before 2000 (had more touches after the age of 30 than before).

Eddie George - Played until he was 31, had 1 1000 yard season. 2658 touches before 2003.

James Stewart - Played until he was 31, had 1 1000 yard season (at age 31). 1255 touches before 2001.

Mike Anderson - Played until he was 34, had 1 1000 yard season (at age 32). 605 touches before 2003 - though played mostly fullback during his career outside of rookie season.

It just isn't as uncommon as people would have you think. There have been 41 1000 yard rushing seasons by 30 year olds since 1980 (23 since 2000, including Frank Gore in 2013 & 2014). Top teir players can break the 30 barrier, and some did so with a splash (4 30 year olds averaged 100 yards per game in 2004 & 2005).At the time he signed, Seattle expect to get at least 4 solid years out of Alexander, and really the only thing they had to fear was injury (which is what happened). Seattle may think they can get 2-4 years out of Lynch still, and barring injury they probably could.

 

[boogiewithstu2007]

I think

It's to late for him to win a title, regardless if he takes a pay cut IMO.

I wouldn't say that ... If they can make some good moves in the offseason they will still be one of the favorites in the AFC West... Manning still has some left in the tank ... I"m not gonna judge him from that Colts playoff game because clearly something was VERY wrong... Give Manning a running game, a decent defense he has a shot ...

 

[ehwq]

I wonder if Greg Hardy would take a cheap 1 or 2 year contract to prove his off the field troubles have gone?

If so, how would the play him with Avril and Bennett?

 

[Mariners_44]

I think it would be nice to see a upgrade from Walters, but not sure if Ginn is the answer. Must not of done much for the Cards if there letting him go.

Ginn isn't necessarily the answer, but when compared to Walters I would take Ginn. Walters is a below average WR, and a fair-ball returner; really no value there. I like Ginn to return kick-offs at the right price, but if not someone like Ginn then we need to address this via draft. It's a huge hole IMO, but one that must come in cheap.

 

[JMR]

Any contract is a risk.

Well of course. I'm not suggesting we only do contracts that have zero risk (there aren't any) but there's a difference between a risk and a gamble. There's a difference between taking a risk and being reckless.

From 2000-2005 the NFL had 14 1000 yard rushers who were 30 or older (9 more with 800 or more yards). The demise of elite running backs when they turn 30 is overblown. It's mostly that they aren't running for gaudy numbers anymore, not that they aren't effective.

I'm not saying Lynch will all of a sudden be a 3 yards per carry guy and be useless, but 1000 yards is only 60 a game. Do you really think we should double his salary for just 60 yards a game? Shoot, RW averaged more than 50 yards a game this year. I'm confident Lynch could be "effective" well into his mid-30s, but why pay him top dollar at the same time his production is tailing off? We are going to have to make some tough calls to stay on top, and often times it's better to cut a guy a year early than a year late.

 

[blstoker]

I'm not saying Lynch will all of a sudden be a 3 yards per carry guy and be useless, but 1000 yards is only 60 a game. Do you really think we should double his salary for just 60 yards a game? Shoot, RW averaged more than 50 yards a game this year. I'm confident Lynch could be "effective" well into his mid-30s, but why pay him top dollar at the same time his production is tailing off? We are going to have to make some tough calls to stay on top, and often times it's better to cut a guy a year early than a year late.

Ok, so I'm obviously playing devils advocate way too well, because I don't want them to give Lynch a pay raise either, but I don't think that giving it to him is the end of the world (especially with how the salary cap is increasing lately). What I've been saying is that I can understand why a front office could feel the need to give top dollar to a star running back who is 29, especially with how well 30+ year olds were running when Alexander got his contract.

Yes, 1000 yards is just above 60 yards a game, but in '04 & '05 there were 3 30 year old backs who ran for over 1600 (including Tiki Barber's NFL record of 1860 in 2005) and 1 more over 1400. I don't think it was reasonable at all that anyone should think that Alexander was ever going to repeat his 2005 season. Only 3 running backs in NFL history have run for 1800 or more yards more than once (Eric Dickerson, Walter Payton and O.J. Simpson). Only 7 more have achieved 1600 or more twice in their careers, including Alexander.

Alexander was given a bonus for his efforts in 2005 ($11.5 million), but he wouldn't have received an actual pay raise until the 5th season of the contract (which would have easily been cut) and his cap number wasn't going to be higher until the 3rd season (which is when he was cut. Looking at how the contract is set up, it was an extension for 3 to four years and then he would been cut, restructured or retired.

As for the reported Lynch deal - 4 years 31 million with the first year's salary being 12 million (I assume it's the cap hit). His base salary would increase in 2015 to $6.75 million with a $4.25 bonus cap* and the original $1.5 million bonus as well. His 2016 salary would be $5.75 million with a $4.25 bonus. 2017 I would specualte his salary would be $1 million with a $4.25 bonus. 2018 would be a $750,000 salary and a $4.25 bonus. We'll just have to see what happens.



* Requires $17 million guaranteed to all be signing bonus, if the guaranteed money (as an example) includes entire 2015 salary then bonuses drop to $2.5 million annually and salaries go up accordingly.

 

[Mariners_44]

As for the reported Lynch deal - 4 years 31 million with the first year's salary being 12 million (I assume it's the cap hit). His base salary would increase in 2015 to $6.75 million with a $4.25 bonus cap* and the original $1.5 million bonus as well. His 2016 salary would be $5.75 million with a $4.25 bonus. 2017 I would specualte his salary would be $1 million with a $4.25 bonus. 2018 would be a $750,000 salary and a $4.25 bonus. We'll just have to see what happens.



* Requires $17 million guaranteed to all be signing bonus, if the guaranteed money (as an example) includes entire 2015 salary then bonuses drop to $2.5 million annually and salaries go up accordingly.

I may be wrong here, but the deal that you are referring to was his extension from three years ago....right? The only figures I have heard is two years $21 million with $11-$12million guaranteed this year, while next year in place to lower this years cap hit.

 

[blstoker]

I may be wrong here, but the deal that you are referring to was his extension from three years ago....right? The only figures I have heard is two years $21 million with $11-$12million guaranteed this year, while next year in place to lower this years cap hit.

Correct, got the numbers mixed up in my head from the reports a couple days ago. Looks like I actually combined them both together...

 

[JMR]

Ok, so I'm obviously playing devils advocate way too well, because I don't want them to give Lynch a pay raise either, but I don't think that giving it to him is the end of the world (especially with how the salary cap is increasing lately). What I've been saying is that I can understand why a front office could feel the need to give top dollar to a star running back who is 29, especially with how well 30+ year olds were running when Alexander got his contract.

Yes, 1000 yards is just above 60 yards a game, but in '04 & '05 there were 3 30 year old backs who ran for over 1600 (including Tiki Barber's NFL record of 1860 in 2005) and 1 more over 1400. I don't think it was reasonable at all that anyone should think that Alexander was ever going to repeat his 2005 season. Only 3 running backs in NFL history have run for 1800 or more yards more than once (Eric Dickerson, Walter Payton and O.J. Simpson). Only 7 more have achieved 1600 or more twice in their careers, including Alexander.

Alexander was given a bonus for his efforts in 2005 ($11.5 million), but he wouldn't have received an actual pay raise until the 5th season of the contract (which would have easily been cut) and his cap number wasn't going to be higher until the 3rd season (which is when he was cut. Looking at how the contract is set up, it was an extension for 3 to four years and then he would been cut, restructured or retired.

As for the reported Lynch deal - 4 years 31 million with the first year's salary being 12 million (I assume it's the cap hit). His base salary would increase in 2015 to $6.75 million with a $4.25 bonus cap* and the original $1.5 million bonus as well. His 2016 salary would be $5.75 million with a $4.25 bonus. 2017 I would specualte his salary would be $1 million with a $4.25 bonus. 2018 would be a $750,000 salary and a $4.25 bonus. We'll just have to see what happens.



* Requires $17 million guaranteed to all be signing bonus, if the guaranteed money (as an example) includes entire 2015 salary then bonuses drop to $2.5 million annually and salaries go up accordingly.

I am not suggesting SA had to get 1800+ yards again the next season (or ever) for that deal to be smart, but he didn't get 50% of that total in either of his remaining 2 years. And I'm not saying a raise for Lynch is the end of the world -- just that I think in general giving players raises as their production tails off (and I'm assuming Lynch is on the verge of tailing off based on history) is not smart. Like you say, I guess we'll see what happens here.

 

[HaroldSeattle]

I am not suggesting SA had to get 1800+ yards again the next season (or ever) for that deal to be smart, but he didn't get 50% of that total in either of his remaining 2 years. And I'm not saying a raise for Lynch is the end of the world -- just that I think in general giving players raises as their production tails off (and I'm assuming Lynch is on the verge of tailing off based on history) is not smart. Like you say, I guess we'll see what happens here.

I get what your saying about paying big $ when production may fall off. Last off season I was singing the same song. Once the season was played a few things changed my mind.

A) Lynch is unique, a RB who gets yards even when he gets hit behind the line of scrimmage.

B) OL just isn't that good. Not sure if another RB could do what Lynch does.

C) Don't have a stud receiver

D) the back ups failed to instill confidence that they could fill the void.

E) Seahawks have other holes to fill, lets not create another.

 

[JMR]

I get what your saying about paying big $ when production may fall off. Last off season I was singing the same song. Once the season was played a few things changed my mind.

A) Lynch is unique, a RB who gets yards even when he gets hit behind the line of scrimmage.

No argument. But Father Time is undefeated.

B) OL just isn't that good. Not sure if another RB could do what Lynch does.

True and probably correct. But again, see above ref Father Time.

C) Don't have a stud receiver

We don't, that's correct. But list out all the stud WRs in the league and then total up the # of SB wins. WRs just don't drive this league. We are probably the best team of the last 3 years w/o one. But I get it... you say keep the running game strong to mitigate. I can see the sense in that....I just think at best Lynch has 2 strong years left, and we're probably not going to see another season as good as 2013...yet we're on the verge of paying him more to do less.

D) the back ups failed to instill confidence that they could fill the void.

I wouldn't think anyone currently on the team would come in and be as good as Lynch, but I'm not sure we need them to be. Also, as Lynch starts fading a tad, I think we could use a committee of guys to at least approach what Lynch is going to produce and for a fraction of the cost. With the dollars saved, maybe we beef up the OL. Maybe we keep Maxwell. Maybe we sign a better WR.

E) Seahawks have other holes to fill, lets not create another.

More or less see above. I think odds are Lynch is still going to be really good in '15, but I doubt he'll be any better than he has been.... reasonable to expect maybe even a slight dip.... and it's going to cost 2x what we've been paying him. At some point there is a tipping point where it no longer makes sense to pay him more. That's pretty much all I'm saying.

 

[HaroldSeattle]

No argument. But Father Time is undefeated.


True and probably correct. But again, see above ref Father Time.


We don't, that's correct. But list out all the stud WRs in the league and then total up the # of SB wins. WRs just don't drive this league. We are probably the best team of the last 3 years w/o one. But I get it... you say keep the running game strong to mitigate. I can see the sense in that....I just think at best Lynch has 2 strong years left, and we're probably not going to see another season as good as 2013...yet we're on the verge of paying him more to do less.


I wouldn't think anyone currently on the team would come in and be as good as Lynch, but I'm not sure we need them to be. Also, as Lynch starts fading a tad, I think we could use a committee of guys to at least approach what Lynch is going to produce and for a fraction of the cost. With the dollars saved, maybe we beef up the OL. Maybe we keep Maxwell. Maybe we sign a better WR.

More or less see above. I think odds are Lynch is still going to be really good in '15, but I doubt he'll be any better than he has been.... reasonable to expect maybe even a slight dip.... and it's going to cost 2x what we've been paying him. At some point there is a tipping point where it no longer makes sense to pay him more. That's pretty much all I'm saying.

As risky as it is, betting on Lynch is the best bet IMO. It gives the Seahawks more time to compensate for his eventual retirement. More time to fix the OL, more time to develop the WRs etc.