Free agent targets Offseason Armchair GM Thread

[Cmon_WTF]

Second, Jumbo and patt have lost a step, to me. The improved D is nice to see, but patty's speed does not look impressive, and more importantly, the wear and tear on the body is there. Its a matter of time, and not a lot of time before they either get a nasty injury or they just lose some more steps and find themselves not anywhere near their salary's worth, if they arent there already.

It's not that Marleau has lost a step it's that he's playing in a system and with linemates that don't allow him to utilize it as much or as effectively. Playing with Thornton as much as he has I can understand the belief that Marleau's speed is falling off. Thornton dictates the play when he is on the ice and he tries to slow down the game which is going to force Marleau to do the same a large majority of the time. One slow player (Pavelski) + one player who likes to slow the play down (Thornton) + one speed burner (Marleau) is going to = three slow players. I know a lot of people commented on this and I don't recall if you were one of them but didn't you notice how much faster Marleau appeared when he was playing center between Couture and Havlat as opposed to having Clowe, Pavelski or Thornton on his line? I really wouldn't be surprised if Marleau's relative productivity follows the same path as Selanne's.

 

[Cbrower91]

Marleau hasn't lost a step FYI not by a long shot and neither has thornton, honestly Thornton and slowvelski both improved their speed this off season

 

[sjrules99]

It's not that Marleau has lost a step it's that he's playing in a system and with linemates that don't allow him to utilize it as much or as effectively. Playing with Thornton as much as he has I can understand the belief that Marleau's speed is falling off. Thornton dictates the play when he is on the ice and he tries to slow down the game which is going to force Marleau to do the same a large majority of the time. One slow player (Pavelski) + one player who likes to slow the play down (Thornton) + one speed burner (Marleau) is going to = three slow players. I know a lot of people commented on this and I don't recall if you were one of them but didn't you notice how much faster Marleau appeared when he was playing center between Couture and Havlat as opposed to having Clowe, Pavelski or Thornton on his line? I really wouldn't be surprised if Marleau's relative productivity follows the same path as Selanne's.

Actually I didnt notice this. After cooch was put on the top line vs. stl, I thought marleau might have looked even slower. maybe that's cuz clowe is kinda slow, but I dont recall seeing him use his speed basically at all. I dont know if its becasue he lost a step, or it's just patty being patty, but I was unimpressed. And for around 7M, a 30-30 season is not so great. That kind of money needs to warrant much better and much more consistent play.

I know that what I want is very very hard to come by. Top pairing dmen, like suter, are very rare, and usually teams covet them and try to lock them up for years and years. This is why when one is available by UFA or trade, it's imperative to jump. Soupy might be overrated, but Buffalo hasnt won a PO series since he left, and in the meantime, chicago won a cup, and florida rode him to their first PO appearance in forever. #1 dmen are very rare, but they are truly key. Suter-Boyle-Burns would be real nice to see next year.

lastly, value in the top 9F is super crucial. Wellwood was amazing for his virtually free salary last year. Dougie needs to find more of those great deals for players who produce for very little. Bozak is a 1.5M player next year, very capable of putting up 15-20 goals and 40-50 points. That's the kind of production per dollar that cup winning teams get, and having several of those underpaid players allows a GM to splurge on more hard-to-find talent, like a true #1 C or #1 D.

 

[Cmon_WTF]

Actually I didnt notice this. After cooch was put on the top line vs. stl, I thought marleau might have looked even slower. maybe that's cuz clowe is kinda slow, but I dont recall seeing him use his speed basically at all. I dont know if its becasue he lost a step, or it's just patty being patty, but I was unimpressed. And for around 7M, a 30-30 season is not so great. That kind of money needs to warrant much better and much more consistent play.

I know that what I want is very very hard to come by. Top pairing dmen, like suter, are very rare, and usually teams covet them and try to lock them up for years and years. This is why when one is available by UFA or trade, it's imperative to jump. Soupy might be overrated, but Buffalo hasnt won a PO series since he left, and in the meantime, chicago won a cup, and florida rode him to their first PO appearance in forever. #1 dmen are very rare, but they are truly key. Suter-Boyle-Burns would be real nice to see next year.

lastly, value in the top 9F is super crucial. Wellwood was amazing for his virtually free salary last year. Dougie needs to find more of those great deals for players who produce for very little. Bozak is a 1.5M player next year, very capable of putting up 15-20 goals and 40-50 points. That's the kind of production per dollar that cup winning teams get, and having several of those underpaid players allows a GM to splurge on more hard-to-find talent, like a true #1 C or #1 D.

Bozak wouldn't put up 40-50 playing a 3rd line role on the Sharks. He barely put up those numbers playing the 1st line with Kessel. If you're lucky he might get you 25-30 points.

I'm also not getting this Wellwood love that some have. He really wasn't as good as you are making him out to be. He produced at almost the same rate as a couple of your favorite non-producing 3rd line whipping boys in Torrey Mitchell that same year or Handzus this year. He was okay defensively unless he was matched up against a line that had either a lot of speed or would play a very physical game. When that happened, like in the Vancouver series, he was rendered completely useless.

I don't mean to be busting your balls, Rules. I completely understand, and to a point agree with, you're desire to transition to a younger core and more depth up front. What you're overlooking IMO is the fact that you don't dump players just because there's a chance to sign Suter. You dump them after he's signed and when a GM is in the position of having to dump players the return will be simular to what Ehrhoff garnered. A late 2nd round pick in a draft two years down the road.

IMO what you are asking for, high end future replacements for core players and quality forward depth, is an either-or situation. You might be able to get one or the other but you're not going to get both while keeping a majority of the teams core in tact. And if you're willing to move out as much of the team as it would take to accomplish that then the Sharks would probably be better off going into full rebuild mode and targeting draft picks that would allow them to draft players like Matthew Dumba or Filip Forsberg this year and Nathan Mackinnon or Seth Jones next year.

 

[filosofy29]

IMO what you are asking for, high end future replacements for core players and quality forward depth, is an either-or situation. You might be able to get one or the other but you're not going to get both while keeping a majority of the teams core in tact. And if you're willing to move out as much of the team as it would take to accomplish that then the Sharks would probably be better off going into full rebuild mode and targeting draft picks that would allow them to draft players like Matthew Dumba or Filip Forsberg this year and Nathan Mackinnon or Seth Jones next year.

From your lips to Gods ears!!!

Thornton to Columbus for Ryan Johansen and the 2nd Overall Pick (Grigorenko)
Marleau and to Montreal for Tomas Kaberle, 3rd Overall Pick and Danny Kristo

 

[Ray_Dogg]

THE TENNESSEAN/NASHVILLE EXAMINER: Nashville Predators pending UFA defenseman Ryan Suter acknowledged he’d spoken briefly with Predators GM David Poile on Wednesday, but he wants to take a couple of weeks to unwind before starting negotiations with the club. Suter, 27, said wherever he signs, he’d want to stay there for the rest of his career, citing in part family reasons. Among the teams which could be interested in Suter if he hits the open market are the Detroit Red Wings and Minnesota Wild, who are close to his hometown of Madison, Wisconsin.

VANCOUVER PROVINCE: Jason Botchford mused over what it might take for the Vancouver Canucks to acquire Nashville Predators RFA defenseman Shea Weber, a BC native, if the Preds are unable to re-sign him long-term.

SPECTOR’S NOTE: It’s important to remember Predators ownership is willing to spend whatever it takes to retain Weber and Suter, so money may not be a factor, but rather if Weber and Suter believe their best chances to win a Stanley Cup remains with Nashville. Of the pair, Suter is the priority for the Predators, as he can walk if unsigned by July 1st. If Suter becomes available, you can bet the Philadelphia Flyer will also be very interested in him. That he’s suggesting he’d want to stay with whoever he signs with for the rest of his career suggests he’s seeking a long-term deal, perhaps up to ten years.

 

[SJVP408]

I think Suter ends up a Red Wing.

If it tampering if Pavelski starts trying to recruit Suter before July 1st?

 

[filosofy29]

I think Suter ends up a Red Wing.

If it tampering if Pavelski starts trying to recruit Suter before July 1st?

Only if he gets caught.....

I agree though, Suter makes too much sense in Detroit both for their needs and for him, a consistent chance to win and close to home. I think with his skill set that he's a better fit on Detroit than San Jose anyway.

 

[sjrules99]

From your lips to Gods ears!!!

Thornton to Columbus for Ryan Johansen and the 2nd Overall Pick (Grigorenko)
Marleau and to Montreal for Tomas Kaberle, 3rd Overall Pick and Danny Kristo

Well, if MTL and/or CJB took that deal, it would sure be the rebuild you speak of.

in truth though, I wouldnt hate if both of those deals went through. hell, a Boyle package to the leafs for the #5 pick would pretty much rebuild all the way, especially if they could dump zues and murray somehow.

It would be pretty funny if the sharks traded 25.5M in salary and the whole face of the franchise for the 2nd, 3rd, and 5th overall picks and top prospects. To be honest, it probably would only take a few years before the team would be back in business.

Besides signing a few good UFA's to replace them might not even be that hard. Parise at 7 years, 50M. david jones for 4 years, 12M. Then maybe semin (who may come cheaper than thought), hudler, stempniak, etc. On D, Suter of course, but if not, then stuart as a stopgap, ans maybe another so-so option like sulzer (Who I would love dougie to target) or colaiacovo and give lots of rookies a chance.

Top 9 would be: parise, pavelski, couture, havlat, clowe, jones, hudler, stempniak, wingels. Not much there, but maybe you get lucky?

D would be: Burns, vlasic, stuart, braun, colaiacovo, demers, sulzer. hmmm.....

Not a great team there, but I suppose you can get lucky. Hell look at the phoenix lineup. What the hell are they doing there? Just hard work, great great attention to detail and defense. NJ as well, with their no-name D corps, is a surprise too. I guess you never know...

However, 3 years down the line with grigorenko, Forsberg, and galchenyuk, and olli maata from this year's draft, and another top prospect or two from next year's most likely, the sharks would likely have 5 of the top 20 prospects in hockey, and all would be hitting the NHL with cooch in his prime to boot. There would likely be at least 2 pretty dry years, and we might see subsequent trading of guys like clowe (30) and havlat (31) to get even younger and even faster.

All said said, top draft choices often lead to cups but certianly not always.

a. The Oil has sucked fro many many years, and still havent come out of it. of ocurse their two #1 picks are still very young, but they also picked 6th, 14, and 21st in 2007, and came away with nothing great (gagner and two relative busts).

b. Since 2006 (6 years), the isles have picked at #1, #5, #5, #7, #9, #12. While their two #5 picks are also still very young, they too havent turned all that drafting into success, at least not yet.

c. Dating back to 2000, their initial year, CBJ has drafted in the top 10 a whopping 10 times and has done terribly.

d. Florida made the PO's this year, but was less than impressive. Since 2001, they have picked in the top 10 a total of 9 times, including 5 times within the top 4 picks. Despite this, they too have been underwhelming for quite a while.

e. from 2008-2010, TBL picked #1, #2, and #6 but failed to make the PO's this year, and hasnt made it out of the east. Still early for them to reap the full rewards of those picks, but they certianly havent guarenteed any kind of success just yet.

f. Atlanta/winnipeg, since 1999, has picked in the top 10 a total of 9 times, including two #1 picks, and 2 #2 pickes in four straight years from 1999-2002. Despite those four top 2 picks, they still barely made the POs and have stunk for a while.


The classic counter examples are obviously the pens and hawks but even the pens really did it on luck because they got crosby who wasnt just any normal #1 pick but a generational uberstar.

In other words, many high picks may still translate into still many many years of sucking without other good GMing.

 

[sjrules99]

Bozak wouldn't put up 40-50 playing a 3rd line role on the Sharks. He barely put up those numbers playing the 1st line with Kessel. If you're lucky he might get you 25-30 points.

I'm also not getting this Wellwood love that some have. He really wasn't as good as you are making him out to be. He produced at almost the same rate as a couple of your favorite non-producing 3rd line whipping boys in Torrey Mitchell that same year or Handzus this year. He was okay defensively unless he was matched up against a line that had either a lot of speed or would play a very physical game. When that happened, like in the Vancouver series, he was rendered completely useless.

I don't mean to be busting your balls, Rules. I completely understand, and to a point agree with, you're desire to transition to a younger core and more depth up front. What you're overlooking IMO is the fact that you don't dump players just because there's a chance to sign Suter. You dump them after he's signed and when a GM is in the position of having to dump players the return will be simular to what Ehrhoff garnered. A late 2nd round pick in a draft two years down the road.

IMO what you are asking for, high end future replacements for core players and quality forward depth, is an either-or situation. You might be able to get one or the other but you're not going to get both while keeping a majority of the teams core in tact. And if you're willing to move out as much of the team as it would take to accomplish that then the Sharks would probably be better off going into full rebuild mode and targeting draft picks that would allow them to draft players like Matthew Dumba or Filip Forsberg this year and Nathan Mackinnon or Seth Jones next year.

Dont worry, you're not busting balls. Disagreeing is just fine. Name calling is annoying, but disagreeing about hockey is what we do here

You might be right on Bozak. I just figured bozak had 35 points at EV, which is only 4 fewer than patty marleau, and for just 1.5M rather than 69M, the value play seems great. That's one of the reasons for my thinking...

The ehrhoff dump was just bad GMing. I gotta think that dougie just didnt shop him well enough. Maybe we didnt know the market, but that seemed like a ridiculous return. I understand the idea of only dumping after the signing but in the case of murray and zues, I would dump them for next to nothing today because there are a dozen UFA options that would be better, so even if suter doesnt come, dougie can still improve.

Wellwood was much better than TM. He creating far more chances, he was a factor and the sharks had no good 3rd line until acquiring him. he was very creative player and for 700k, he's a whole lot better than any of the sharks bottom 6. Don't get me wrong, he is not the savior of the universe, but it comes down again to value. He costs half of torrey mitchell's salary and is a better player. His production was more too. He had a 12G, 30P pace per 82 games in his tenure here, and a +10, which was excellent. The 3rd line was extremely effective and productive after he came. He was a really good deal, and losing him did hurt. His salary is also just under 1/3 of zues'. Zues for 700k or even mitchell for 700k would be fine. But for 2.5M and 1.4M, they are bad deals, and they hurt.

 

[sjrules99]

p.s.: I know I harp on it too much, but in the cap era, it's all about good value contracts. Ask MTL about how gomez and gionta's huge money is working out. The same player producing the same amount can be great or terrible completely depending on their contract number. Murray at 800K would be fine. Cooch at 2.8 is super great, but at 7M, it wouldnt be so great. The key is getting the guy at the right price. marleau at 7 is about 1-2M over. Jumbo is just right at 7. Pavs is 1 under at 4. clowe is right about correct, maybe .5 under. havlat at 5 is right on, given his injury history. Cooch at 2.8 is 3 or so under. Boyle is pretty close to right on as is burns.

In other words, many of hte sharks contracts are not too bad. However, there are a few that stand out as well over. Patty is at least 1 over (he's a 5-6M player at this point). Zues is possible 1.5 over (he's worth 1M right now). Murray is 1 over (1 to 1.5M worth IMO). Bascially dumping the bad value guys and deftly adding good value guys is what I look for, and if those three were signed at my percieved value of them, then the sharks would have 3-4M more in cap space, which makes a significant difference.

 

[MrChangoT97]

Only if he gets caught.....

I agree though, Suter makes too much sense in Detroit both for their needs and for him, a consistent chance to win and close to home. I think with his skill set that he's a better fit on Detroit than San Jose anyway.

But remember Suter is a family man, and he might want his kids to grow up in a nice area. Perfect weather, shopping, schools, contender. San Jose has all of this while Detroit has ???

Just trying to make a point. But hey if Pavelski can convince him too, go for it.

 

[Stackem]

From your lips to Gods ears!!!

Thornton to Columbus for Ryan Johansen and the 2nd Overall Pick (Grigorenko)
Marleau and to Montreal for Tomas Kaberle, 3rd Overall Pick and Danny Kristo

I'm with filo on this, time to re-boot the sharks.. works for my PC all the time.

 

[Cmon_WTF]

More Nash trash from Garrioch. I don't know why I bother quoting this idiot but it's been pretty slow around here.

...San Jose Sharks could revisit interest in Nash, as GM Doug Wilson has informed the Blue Jackets the Sharks would “sweeten the pot” in June.

 

[MrChangoT97]

Bull Shit.............that's what I smell!

Sweeten the pot? Yeah right!

 

[filosofy29]

More Nash trash from Garrioch. I don't know why I bother quoting this idiot but it's been pretty slow around here.

Yup, like you said, Garrioch is crap. I'm not sure why a GM (DWil in this case) would tip his hand and just come out and say that he'd "sweeten the pot".

That said, I really do fear that Nash is going to be a San Jose Shark though. The only way I'd be remotely ok with the trade is if it was Clowe, Niemi and the 1st Round pick (but I think Columbus would want more than that).....even then, I'd be a little bummed. I like Nash at $6M a year, but not at $7.8M long term.

 

[SJVP408]

The worst thing that can happen is if NYR made it far into the playoffs, which they have. This means they may not look to make big changes such as acquiring Nash. One less suitor for Nash...crap.

 

[sjrules99]

Yup, like you said, Garrioch is crap. I'm not sure why a GM (DWil in this case) would tip his hand and just come out and say that he'd "sweeten the pot".

That said, I really do fear that Nash is going to be a San Jose Shark though. The only way I'd be remotely ok with the trade is if it was Clowe, Niemi and the 1st Round pick (but I think Columbus would want more than that).....even then, I'd be a little bummed. I like Nash at $6M a year, but not at $7.8M long term.

The only 2 ways I'd like nash is if:

A. patty went the other way, which wont happen 100%.
B. Murray and zues went the other way, which wont happen 200%. if dougie could get rid of either of those in a nash deal, I could consider it, but I just fail to see why CBJ would even consider either of those guys.

How about Murray+Zues+Clowe+Nemo + the compost heap behind HP + most of East San Jose for Nash. Now, that's a deal I could get behind

Even clowe+Nemo, while not a terrible deal, would be OK, though the 1st just sacrifices more future and gives the sharks zero wiggle room with the three huge contracts up front and boyle's on the back end for 2 more years. That's 28.5M to 3 aging vets and an underachieving forward with no PO experience. It would disallow the sharks from adding anyone after next season and just locks the team into the old cycle they have going now, not to mention making a risky move at goalie and adding over 1M or so in cap hit (after replacing nemo), AND they would still be stick with 5M of dead weight for next year.

It's the whack-a-mole move. Plug a hole up front, create a longer term cap space problem and a goaltending risk.

 

[Stackem]

The only 2 ways I'd like nash is if:

A. patty went the other way, which wont happen 100%.
B. Murray and zues went the other way, which wont happen 200%. if dougie could get rid of either of those in a nash deal, I could consider it, but I just fail to see why CBJ would even consider either of those guys.

How about Murray+Zues+Clowe+Nemo + the compost heap behind HP + most of East San Jose for Nash. Now, that's a deal I could get behind

Even clowe+Nemo, while not a terrible deal, would be OK, though the 1st just sacrifices more future and gives the sharks zero wiggle room with the three huge contracts up front and boyle's on the back end for 2 more years. That's 28.5M to 3 aging vets and an underachieving forward with no PO experience. It would disallow the sharks from adding anyone after next season and just locks the team into the old cycle they have going now, not to mention making a risky move at goalie and adding over 1M or so in cap hit (after replacing nemo), AND they would still be stick with 5M of dead weight for next year.

It's the whack-a-mole move. Plug a hole up front, create a longer term cap space problem and a goaltending risk.

Ha..! Pretty funny.

IDK. Nash feels like Heatler v.2.0.

I am gonna have to say no thanks, which means, you can pretty much lock it in, Dougie will make it happen and Nash will be a Shark. My luck with this crap is horrible.

My only hope would be that its part of a larger effort to transition away from our Thornton/Marleau era, which is also unlikely, which means... well, more of the same... with the same results.

 

[Cmon_WTF]

Something to keep in mind which may lessen the blow of Nash's cap hit is if the formula for the cap stays the same under the new CBA and the players can still use the inflator option the cap would rise to just over $69.0m.