ESPN's Mike Sando's starting QB ranking

[cdumler7]

Sorry but I doubt that this is even remotely true. Wilson can beat teams with his arm and his legs, which means that teams must game plan for Wilson. Furthermore, he's probably the most elusive QB in the NFL, and makes big plays while scrambling on a regular basis. You can say that teams "now have the book" on Wilson-- but unless those teams have the personnel to get disciplined pressure from the ends and up the middle simultaneously while rushing only four, then they won't have the personnel to put that book into application. Every QB will suffer if a team can get both interior and edge pressure rushing only four. Wilson's 'slump' at the end of last year came against great defenses with good/great front sevens (Niners, Cards, Rams, Saints)-- and this while getting very poor pass protection due multiple OL injuries, and missing his top two WRs for the same reason. On top of that, Pete Carroll is fanatical about protecting the football on offense, and became ultra-conservative during that stretch because he believed that the D and running game could grind out wins on the way to preserving home field advanatge for the Hawks.

I don't have a problem with Wilson being ranked around #8 in this poll. But I think you're kidding yourself if you believe that Wilson is an easy QB to game plan for.

I think what he means by the game planning comment is more geared towards who teams spend a majority of their time focusing on. For the Seahawks most teams probably spend more time focused on stopping the run game with Lynch than they do with what Wilson and the receivers are going to do. Coaches talk all the time about there are just certain players in the league that you spend the whole week up at night worrying about. Obviously the elite four quarterbacks on this list and I do think this is why they put Luck in with them in for the Colts he is the offense. Now again that doesn't mean that you completely ignore the rest of the team it just means you understand that the best way to win the game is to take out the best player of your opponent and force anybody else on the team to beat you. Bill Belichick has said that he would dare Peyton Manning to have to run against him. He knew by forcing Peyton to have to take what he was giving him in the run game that it would make Peyton frustrated that he couldn't pass and get him out of his rhythm that makes him so dangerous.

 

[Caliskinsfan]

I think what he means by the game planning comment is more geared towards who teams spend a majority of their time focusing on. For the Seahawks most teams probably spend more time focused on stopping the run game with Lynch than they do with what Wilson and the receivers are going to do. Coaches talk all the time about there are just certain players in the league that you spend the whole week up at night worrying about. Obviously the elite four quarterbacks on this list and I do think this is why they put Luck in with them in for the Colts he is the offense. Now again that doesn't mean that you completely ignore the rest of the team it just means you understand that the best way to win the game is to take out the best player of your opponent and force anybody else on the team to beat you. Bill Belichick has said that he would dare Peyton Manning to have to run against him. He knew by forcing Peyton to have to take what he was giving him in the run game that it would make Peyton frustrated that he couldn't pass and get him out of his rhythm that makes him so dangerous.

I'm sure that is the point UK was trying to make, just not nearly as eloquently stated as yourself...

 

[Uhsplit]

I have no problem with the RW disbelievers and the ranking in the area of 10th best QB. His trend line is pointed up and every year I expect to see him rise in the standings.
Go Hawks

 

[Clayton]

Really there is 4 elite Qb's and then everyone else.

I think its much more nuanced than that. The QB position is very diverse across the league.

-Brees is the king of domes but is average on grass.
-Peyton can put great touch on many different type of passes but doesn't have nearly the arm strength he used to and can sometimes be overconfident against elite defenses.
-Brady is the king of the short pass but his accuracy goes down when you get in his face.
-Rodgers does everything but he can hold on to the ball a little too long.
-Big Ben holds on to the ball more than anyone but he can improvise better than anyone and isnt the easiest guy to sack.
-Rivers routinely makes throws when he actually has weapons and an oline but he can make some of the most boneheaded lapses.
-Romo does everything but fails to make adjustments and well...he's the king of 8-8
-Cam is like Big Ben but he is younger and hasnt had as many clutch moments
-Luck is captain comeback but he gets hit too much and hasn't really been surrounded with weapons yet
-Wilson is elusive and has underrated arm strength but isnt the best against complex pressure (yet)
-Flacco has a cannon but is average in every other way
-Eli and Cutler have arm talent but they turn the ball over way too much.
-Guys like Alex Smith and Nick Foles seem like expert game managers
-Dalton is pretty solid in most cases but he holds on to the ball too much and forces throws his arm cant make
-RG3, Bradford and Locker...are these guys even going to stay healthy in the league?
-Tannehill and Manuel have potential but we needs more time before we make a call

The league is about matchups right now. Not sure having an elite QB is a guarantee for anything because outside of Rodgers, I think you can gameplan for every other QB if you have a top 10 defense.

 

[cdumler7]

I'm sure that is the point UK was trying to make, just not nearly as eloquently stated as yourself...

If you can weed through all the BS that UK throws out you can find a few comments every once in a while with some actual thought put into them. Not many but a few. This is one of those that I actually do agree with him on in I will be interested to see what happens when Wilson actually becomes the real face of the Seattle offense. I think he can still succeed say they ask him to pass 30-40 times a game but I do see his numbers dropping off a bit as teams would have more and more tape plus more time devoted during the week to figure out the best way to stop him. Again I think he would succeed.

 

[cdumler7]

I think its much more nuanced than that. The QB position is very diverse across the league.

-Brees is the king of domes but is average on grass.
-Peyton can put great touch on many different type of passes but doesn't have nearly the arm strength he used to and can sometimes be overconfident against elite defenses.
-Brady is the king of the short pass but his accuracy goes down when you get in his face.
-Rodgers does everything but he can hold on to the ball a little too long.
-Big Ben holds on to the ball more than anyone but he can improvise better than anyone and isnt the easiest guy to sack.
-Rivers routinely makes throws when he actually has weapons and an oline but he can make some of the most boneheaded lapses.
-Romo does everything but fails to make adjustments and well...he's the king of 8-8
-Cam is like Big Ben but he is younger and hasnt had as many clutch moments
-Luck is captain comeback but he gets hit too much and hasn't really been surrounded with weapons yet
-Wilson is elusive and has underrated arm strength but isnt the best against complex pressure (yet)
-Flacco has a cannon but is average in every other way
-Eli and Cutler have arm talent but they turn the ball over way too much.
-Guys like Alex Smith and Nick Foles seem like expert game managers
-Dalton is pretty solid in most cases but he holds on to the ball too much and forces throws his arm cant make
-RG3, Bradford and Locker...are these guys even going to stay healthy in the league?
-Tannehill and Manuel have potential but we needs more time before we make a call

The league is about matchups right now. Not sure having an elite QB is a guarantee for anything because outside of Rodgers, I think you can gameplan for every other QB if you have a top 10 defense.

All of those points I definitely agree on. I will say though that obviously there are some of those guys that can overcome their weaknesses better than others. There are also some on the list that are relied on a lot more than the rest. I look at guys like Manning and Brady where Brady has made the playoffs 11 of the 12 years he has started and Manning has made it 13 of the 15 he has been in the league. Neither have missed the playoffs since 2002 when healthy. The one constant other than Bill Belichick for Brady has been them on the team. So obviously they impact a team more than most in the league. Rodgers is now following in the same footsteps.

 

[Caliskinsfan]

If you can weed through all the BS that UK throws out you can find a few comments every once in a while with some actual thought put into them. Not many but a few. This is one of those that I actually do agree with him on in I will be interested to see what happens when Wilson actually becomes the real face of the Seattle offense. I think he can still succeed say they ask him to pass 30-40 times a game but I do see his numbers dropping off a bit as teams would have more and more tape plus more time devoted during the week to figure out the best way to stop him. Again I think he would succeed.

Oh yes, I'm more than familiar with UK as a skins fan... And I agree with you here

All of those points I definitely agree on. I will say though that obviously there are some of those guys that can overcome their weaknesses better than others. There are also some on the list that are relied on a lot more than the rest. I look at guys like Manning and Brady where Brady has made the playoffs 11 of the 12 years he has started and Manning has made it 13 of the 15 he has been in the league. Neither have missed the playoffs since 2002 when healthy. The one constant other than Bill Belichick for Brady has been them on the team. So obviously they impact a team more than most in the league. Rodgers is now following in the same footsteps.

Oh lookee, I agree with you again

 

[Clayton]

I look at guys like Manning and Brady where Brady has made the playoffs 11 of the 12 years he has started and Manning has made it 13 of the 15 he has been in the league. Neither have missed the playoffs since 2002 when healthy.

Sure, these are elite guys. No doubt. But having Peyton and Brady just isnt what it used to be. They've gotten older and they've regressed to just elite QBs and not unstoppable forces. The big thing I noticed about Peyton last year is if you had a bad CB somewhere, he would find him and ride that matchup. He can probably beat at least 15 teams just from doing that. Brady when given a healthy TE weapon is the same way. They are going to make the playoffs every year because not every team is going to field a good passing defense.

I think what important to note is that if Brady and Peyton actually have healthy players around them next year, they'll be scary. The Broncos had more than a few injuries and Brady was surrounded by some pathetic offensive talent at times

 

[cdumler7]

Sure, these are elite guys. No doubt. But having Peyton and Brady just isnt what it used to be. They've gotten older and they've regressed to just elite QBs and not unstoppable forces. The big thing I noticed about Peyton last year is if you had a bad CB somewhere, he would find him and ride that matchup. He can probably beat at least 15 teams just from doing that. Brady when given a healthy TE weapon is the same way. They are going to make the playoffs every year because not every team is going to field a good passing defense.

I think what important to note is that if Brady and Peyton actually have healthy players around them next year, they'll be scary. The Broncos had more than a few injuries and Brady was surrounded by some pathetic offensive talent at times

I agree and it is why especially come playoff time a team needs more than a quarterback. A great quarterback can get you to the playoffs. Only a great team though can actually stand a chance of winning the Super Bowl. It is why Manning for most of his career has struggled quite a bit in the playoffs is he is asked to do more than he can leading to mistakes. He can't count on his defense most of the time to do well compared to what you saw this past year with teams like the 49ers and Seahawks where they had more well-rounded teams. Like you said if the Broncos and Patriots can stay healthy though they can join that group of being well-rounded teams that can win against those top tier teams especially come playoff time. Have to see how all those injured players come back though.

 

[seafandoghawk]

I think what he means by the game planning comment is more geared towards who teams spend a majority of their time focusing on. For the Seahawks most teams probably spend more time focused on stopping the run game with Lynch than they do with what Wilson and the receivers are going to do. Coaches talk all the time about there are just certain players in the league that you spend the whole week up at night worrying about. Obviously the elite four quarterbacks on this list and I do think this is why they put Luck in with them in for the Colts he is the offense. Now again that doesn't mean that you completely ignore the rest of the team it just means you understand that the best way to win the game is to take out the best player of your opponent and force anybody else on the team to beat you. Bill Belichick has said that he would dare Peyton Manning to have to run against him. He knew by forcing Peyton to have to take what he was giving him in the run game that it would make Peyton frustrated that he couldn't pass and get him out of his rhythm that makes him so dangerous.

You made his point more eloquently; but I'm not sure that it's true. I'm not privvy to game-plan meetings and just have to conjecture. But Wilson has killed teams that focused too heavily on shutting down Lynch (eg, Monday night game vs, the Saints). Here's the thing: if he had a weak arm or was generally inaccurate, then yes, just load the box. But he's got plenty of arm strength and generally is a very accurate passer. Factor in that Wilson can and does run the read-option when teams don't game-plan for it (eg, the Bears at Chicago in 2012). Right there you have a deliberate adjustment that must be made by defenses, with the DEs not crashing down on running plays (or else the LBs 'scraping' to cover that abandoned space). Either way, Wilson's threat as a running QB-- and the defensive adjustments necessary to cope with that-- actually open up the running game for Lynch, because a player or two on the D is necessarily playing more flat-footed right around the line of scrimmage. And then factor in Wilson's elite elusiveness and his penchant for finding open receivers while scrambling, and yeah, a smart defense really better game-plan for Wilson. He can stress defenses in multiple ways; and the Hawks coaching staff will look to exploit the advantages.

I could be wrong, but I have to believe that defensive coordinators around the league are game-planning for the multiplicity of problems that Wilson can cause a defense. I know that I would. Much as I love Marshawn Lynch, it's essentially a power running game that averages five yards a pop, give or take. Overemphasize that in game-planning and suddenly you get busted for big plays by Wilson, can't get off the field on third downs, and find yourself having to come from behind against the Hawks D.

 

[cdumler7]

As a coach and player watching the Seahawks my first thought when thinking of the offense is Lynch. Yes teams will game plan for Wilson. That is not the question. The question here is who do teams spend a majority of the week really worrying about beating them. For me and most I would think it would be Lynch as he has the ability to not only have a big game but really wear down a defense. Again that doesn't mean that you spend the whole week just focused on Lynch and ignore everything else. Wilson is great in his own right and yes I am sure teams spend plenty of time preparing for what he can do on the field. At the same time a lot of Wilson's game is tough to game plan for because a lot of it does involve him running around just waiting for a guy to get open. Hard to game plan much for that. He isn't the biggest on timing routes or having to worry about him passing up the seam or things that a lot of quarterbacks like Manning, Brady, and Rodgers do on the field.


Again this isn't about whether they game plan for Wilson or not. Of course they do. It is a matter though of who scares teams the most and who do teams know they have to try and stop to win against Seattle...that guy would be Lynch. Wilson can go out and win games and has shown as much in his two years but he can't do it quite like Lynch can.


This is where understanding what teams do throughout the week really comes into play. I don't understand it fully but I have listened to coaches speak on the topic and most will say they work to take away a teams greatest strength. For the Seahawks that is the run game. Now Wilson is a part of that of course but a majority of it is Lynch. Lynch understands that and is probably why he tried to hold out a bit this off season even though he is already paid in the top-5 for his position. You don't usually hold out unless you have some kind of leverage and for Lynch it is that he is the true face of the offense.

 

[Clayton]

I could be wrong, but I have to believe that defensive coordinators around the league are game-planning for the multiplicity of problems that Wilson can cause a defense. I know that I would. Much as I love Marshawn Lynch, it's essentially a power running game that averages five yards a pop, give or take. Overemphasize that in game-planning and suddenly you get busted for big plays by Wilson, can't get off the field on third downs, and find yourself having to come from behind against the Hawks D.

The gameplan against Seattle is to get pressure. Their oline is far and away the weakest part of their roster, imo. Get Lynch in the backfield so dlinemen can tackle him and not secondary players. Get pressure in Wilsons face and make him make a decision.

Denvers road through the NFC West might not be as awful as we once thought. Seattle in Denver, and then the Niners with maybe a banged up Bowman. Niners secondary also probably doesn't cause Peyton as much issues. Washington is out for the whole year for Arizona. Rams secondary is mostly unknown right now. It wouldn't be unheard of for them to go 3-1 against the NFC West. Even 2-2 and they're in good shape

 

[seafandoghawk]

As a coach and player watching the Seahawks my first thought when thinking of the offense is Lynch. Yes teams will game plan for Wilson. That is not the question. The question here is who do teams spend a majority of the week really worrying about beating them. For me and most I would think it would be Lynch as he has the ability to not only have a big game but really wear down a defense. Again that doesn't mean that you spend the whole week just focused on Lynch and ignore everything else. Wilson is great in his own right and yes I am sure teams spend plenty of time preparing for what he can do on the field. At the same time a lot of Wilson's game is tough to game plan for because a lot of it does involve him running around just waiting for a guy to get open. Hard to game plan much for that. He isn't the biggest on timing routes or having to worry about him passing up the seam or things that a lot of quarterbacks like Manning, Brady, and Rodgers do on the field.


Again this isn't about whether they game plan for Wilson or not. Of course they do. It is a matter though of who scares teams the most and who do teams know they have to try and stop to win against Seattle...that guy would be Lynch. Wilson can go out and win games and has shown as much in his two years but he can't do it quite like Lynch can.


This is where understanding what teams do throughout the week really comes into play. I don't understand it fully but I have listened to coaches speak on the topic and most will say they work to take away a teams greatest strength. For the Seahawks that is the run game. Now Wilson is a part of that of course but a majority of it is Lynch. Lynch understands that and is probably why he tried to hold out a bit this off season even though he is already paid in the top-5 for his position. You don't usually hold out unless you have some kind of leverage and for Lynch it is that he is the true face of the offense.

You may be right about the perception or the application around the league, but if it were me personally, I would prioritize containing Wilson in the pocket first and most of all when playing the Hawks.

Az, St.L, and (sometimes) SF have provided the best blueprint in my opinion. First priority is to keep Wilson in the pocket. Make Lynch beat you if he can. But again, it's just how I look at it.

 

[seafandoghawk]

The gameplan against Seattle is to get pressure. Their oline is far and away the weakest part of their roster, imo. Get Lynch in the backfield so dlinemen can tackle him and not secondary players. Get pressure in Wilsons face and make him make a decision.

Denvers road through the NFC West might not be as awful as we once thought. Seattle in Denver, and then the Niners with maybe a banged up Bowman. Niners secondary also probably doesn't cause Peyton as much issues. Washington is out for the whole year for Arizona. Rams secondary is mostly unknown right now. It wouldn't be unheard of for them to go 3-1 against the NFC West. Even 2-2 and they're in good shape

Seattle's in Denver for the preseason, but at the Clink during Week 3 of the regular season.

 

[Tapey]

Luck needs to go down, and Newton needs to go up.

 

[ckhokie]

I am surprised by all the hate Luck is getting in this thread. He has had a god awful defense, no run game, and nothing amazing at WR, and has turned a team around.

I would be very interested to see Russell Wilson and Andrew Luck switch teams and see how successful each were.

 

[UK Cowboy]

I am surprised by all the hate Luck is getting in this thread. He has had a god awful defense, no run game, and nothing amazing at WR, and has turned a team around.

I would be very interested to see Russell Wilson and Andrew Luck switch teams and see how successful each were.

Luck would have won a Super Bowl. Wilson would have led the Colts as constructed to 8-8 or 9-7 IMO

 

[Uhsplit]

Luck would have won a Super Bowl. Wilson would have led the Colts as constructed to 8-8 or 9-7 IMO

It is my belief, that the more you post, the less your opinion matters.

 

[UK Cowboy]

It is my belief, that the more you post, the less your opinion matters.

Ditto

 

[iowajerms]

Sando has a new article out that says he believes there are 4 young QBs who could join Tier 1.

ESPN Insider:Which young quarterbacks can reach Tier 1? - NFL - ESPN


Twenty-six NFL coaches and personnel evaluators almost unanimously placed Tom Brady, Aaron Rodgers, Peyton Manning and Drew Brees in the top tier of starting quarterbacks for our recently published QB Tiers project. Most thought Andrew Luck was in the process of joining them (he cracked Tier 1 as the No. 5 QB in the rankings), and that veterans Philip Rivers and Ben Roethlisberger weren't far behind.

Another question lingered. What about some of the other potential Tier 1 candidates? Russell Wilson, Colin Kaepernick, Matthew Stafford and Cam Newton are four ascending young players who generated enough discussion during the QB Tiers project to address in some detail here. What would they have to do to reach Tier 1 status? Coaches and personnel people weren't short on opinions.

****I will put what he said about the four in 4 different posts for those who don't have Insider.*****