ESPN's Mike Sando's starting QB ranking

[iowajerms]

Matthew Stafford, Detroit Lions
What he has already: All the physical ability required, and then some.
Biggest question areas: Mechanics and decision-making mindset.

Stafford was the player mentioned first most regularly when I asked coaches and personnel people which QB outside the top tier was best equipped to reach that top status. But one GM said he thought Calvin Johnson, not Stafford, was the biggest difference-maker for the Lions. And for coaches who value the fundamentals that have helped make Brady and Manning so consistent, Stafford can be a frustrating player to watch.

"It's good that he can throw it from every arm angle and everything, but let's complete the ball," an offensive coach said.

A GM took another view, noting that people said similar things about Brett Favre. He said Stafford and possibly Jay Cutler are the only QBs outside Tier 1 with the arm talent to dominate a game the way Favre could back when Green Bay went toe-to-toe with the 1990s Dallas Cowboys. However, having the talent to do it and actually doing it are not the same.

"Mechanically, he is flawed," a different offensive coach said. "He has not been coached very well. Peyton and those guys have worked hard on their footwork. San Diego did it with Rivers and he had not done that. If you get Stafford to do those things, he can be a two for sure."

That coach made Stafford a three. A third offensive coach said the Lions need a more disciplined culture for Stafford to reach his Tier 1 potential.

"If he finds someone to force him to be disciplined, and they run the ball, he can be any of those guys," this coach said. "That guy is way above average physically, really competitive, really quick with the ball -- way faster than people give him credit for, especially his quickness to avoid. He has the whole deal if he is not too far gone with the, 'I just have to make a play and do it my way.' You need someone willing to coach him on a daily basis. He was raised by wolves over there."

 

[iowajerms]

Russell Wilson, Seattle Seahawks
What he has already: Leadership, decision-making, mobility, Super Bowl pedigree
Biggest question areas: How much his lack of height lowers his ceiling

Wilson has done just about everything right to this point in his career, but coaches and personnel people aren't going to place him in the top tier until they see him carry more of the offensive load from week to week. Of course, it's not Wilson's fault that he has a dominant running back and an even better defense to lighten the load on his shoulder. It's not his fault coach that Pete Carroll throttles back the offense to minimize risk and improve the Seahawks' chances for winning.

The five Tier 1 QBs averaged between 38-42 dropbacks, 33-38 pass attempts and 250-315 passing yards per game over the past five seasons (two seasons for Luck). Wilson has averaged 30.5 drop-backs, 25 pass attempts and 202 yards passing per game.

"I don't know if he’ll ever be the pocket passer to beat you from a spot like all those number ones," a former GM said. "Eventually, people will stop rushing him and make him beat them from the pocket. Time will tell if he can do that at 5-foot-10."

Another former GM noted that Wilson could not carry the Seahawks late last season. Seattle ranked 21st in offensive EPA from Week 14 forward, one spot behind Cleveland.

"To be a one, you can win it by yourself," this former GM said. "Fourth quarter, here is the ball. You're John Elway and you have to go 90 yards. We'll only win because of you. Watch the second half of last year for Seattle and it was a grind. If it wasn't for Marshawn Lynch, they had nothing. I'm a huge fan of Russell Wilson, but if they relied just on him late, they would have been 4-4. He played some bad games, and ball security was an issue."

That sounds harsh, but we're not talking about whether Wilson is a good QB. He is. The question is whether he can join Tier 1. I remember sitting next to a scout in the press box at Soldier Field for a Seahawks-Bears game late in the 2012 season. The scout came into the game thinking Wilson was a nice player. He called him a "monster" after Wilson took over the game and led 97- and 80-yard touchdown drives late in the game to pull out a 23-17 victory. It seemed like a Tier 1 performance.

"When they pay him and that defense goes to the middle of the pack and he starts throwing for 250-plus a game, then he is there," an offensive coach said.

A veteran safety who has played multiple games against Seattle said he wanted to see how Wilson grows in terms responsibilities before the snap.

"I don’t think he really does well reading defenses and checking plays [at this point]," the safety said. "He does a great job getting out of the pocket and extending plays and not taking hits, which I think is the difference between him and [Robert] Griffin III. The reason I like Russell, though, is because he is smart enough not to make mistakes. He knows how to manage a game. He is not trying to win the game on his own. They are going to run the ball, run calculated play-action passes, and when they do throw it, he is making it happen. He will check a play here or there to a good call, but he is not very flashy with it. It is not all on his shoulders."

 

[iowajerms]

Cam Newton, Carolina Panthers
What he has already: Rare physical ability in every area
Biggest question areas: Offensive system/weapons, and offensive pedigree

There is no questioning Newton's physical ability. Some said that ability alone makes Newton a candidate to achieve Tier 1 status. That was not a majority opinion, however.

"I think he is forever a two at the best," one offensive coach said. "He is coming from so far back. He was at Florida a bit, at the JC a bit, then Auburn. There just hasn't been a basis for a football IQ at the level of Rivers and Brees and those guys, and I do not think Carolina is pushing him that way with their scheme. They are going to play what is called, they have a QB-involved run game where he does not audible out of plays because there are too many guys in the box. Is that because of them or him?"

Newton has come closer than Wilson to reaching the per-game averages Tier 1 QBs have shown in dropbacks, pass attempts and passing yardage. Those statistics say nothing about how well a QB is playing, but they do provide a gauge for how much of the load the QB is carrying. If you're a Tier 1 QB, your coaches will want to run the offense through you. Those figures for Newton dropped some last season as Carolina improved significantly on defense.

"You have to throw to win unless you have an extreme situation like San Francisco, Carolina and Seattle," the offensive coach said. "When you get a QB who can do Rivers-type stuff mentally, the whole world opens up to you. If you have a Newton or Kaepernick, it opens up other things. But if you have to throw to win, which you have to do if you do not have a top-10 defense, then it matters to coaches. You can win with those other guys, but you have to play a particular style."

So, can Newton reach Tier 1? "He has the potential, just based on the fact that he has an NFL passer's skill set and has flashed the ability to beat you from the pocket," a GM said.

 

[iowajerms]

Colin Kaepernick, San Francisco 49ers
What he has already: Plenty of arm, good coaching and a playoff pedigree
Biggest question areas: Whether he can become a polished passer

Kaepernick's dynamic running ability has defined him more than his passing. Several coaches and personnel people thought Kaepernick was more likely than Wilson to achieve Tier 1 status, but these people also thought Kaepernick would be more apt to settle into the third or fourth tier. They typically thought Wilson had a higher floor and a lower ceiling, in other words. And they did not think Kaepernick had shown an ability to win with his arm consistently. That theme was strong when I consulted veteran defensive backs as well.

"Kaepernick is OK, but you look at his game, and it's his legs," one safety said. "He has a strong arm, but I don't know if he can make every throw."

A veteran corner put it this way: "He is definitely not on Luck's level. He made a lot of plays with his legs, not as many with his arm or his smarts, knowing the game."

That is understandable. Kaepernick has fewer than two full seasons as a starter. He played in a pistol offense at Nevada. The 49ers have tailored their offense to him as well.

"From a throwing standpoint, I don't know if he will be regarded in the same neighborhood as those [Tier 1] guys," a defensive coordinator said. "He might play to his ceiling and be really good."

An offensive coach also questioned whether Kaepernick would throw the ball well enough to reach the highest level.

"He throws one kind of ball: flat and hard," this coach said. "You miss out on touch throws, arm angles, those kinds of things. But if anybody can get really close, he can because he is a wonderfully high-character person who has not been changed an ounce by what has happened to him. He is a better person than player, and I think that really will go a long way for consistency over time."

 

[seafandoghawk]

The gameplan against Seattle is to get pressure. Their oline is far and away the weakest part of their roster, imo. Get Lynch in the backfield so dlinemen can tackle him and not secondary players. Get pressure in Wilsons face and make him make a decision.

Somehow completely forgot to address the first part of your post, which makes a very good point in my opinion. I'd only add that it's easier said than done, because you need a talented and disciplined front seven to pull that off. Seattle runs a zone-read run blocking scheme on offense, which is designed to open up cutback lanes-- and Lynch doesn't hesitate, but rather goes full speed through the handoff and then looks to find lanes "in the phone booth" (while he's accelerating into the trenches). It's just the style that he's explicitly worked to develop since he's been in Seattle. So you need a pair DTs that can blow up their part of the trenches to get that kind of penetration. Unless your willing to throw some LBs there on run-blitzes. Which creates a vulnerability for the pass defense (play-action passes et al).

And Russell Wilson is elite and finding escape lanes when under pressure. So again, you need to be getting strong pressure from the DTs well as at least one DE-- it needs to be a disciplined as well as a strong pass rush.

Bottom line is that not every team has the front sevens of the Rams, Cards, Panthers, and 49ers. But yeah, if your front seven is strong enough to stop Lynch in the backfield and close off Wilson's escape lanes, then the game is going to like like they normally do when the Seahawks have to play especially against their division rivals.

 

[Scooby-Doo]

Uh oh prepare for the onslaught of Seahawks fans being ticked that anybody would rate Russell Wilson out of the top-5 quarterbacks. This is the 2nd article done by experts (one by ESPN and one by NFL.com) that have rated him right around 10th-12th in the league. My guess is those who watch every game and are paid to do so have a pretty good idea where a player is ranked. I understand they all are not the greatest of experts but when you have a wide range of coaches, scouts, GM's, analyst, ex-players, and so on they can come up with a pretty good list.


Looking at it I for the most part would agree. Matt Ryan being so high is not quite where I would put him but at the same time I don't think he has had much talent other than at WR around him. Yet he has a pretty darn good winning record in his career so I think if you give him some more talent on both sides of the ball he really could make some noise. Also disagree some with Cam Newton being so low. He really showed me something this last year as a leader. I think his numbers will be down this year some but that is mostly because he just has no talent around him on offense. I also think RGIII will shoot up this list for next year. The article says he was downgraded because of injury so again when healthy he is definitely top-10 in the league.


Also a big fan of them rating Tom Brady where they did. I know after this last season everybody has been screaming that he is slipping but the guy is a winner. Even on a down year they still found a way to dominate and a big part of that is Tom Brady just willing his team to victory. This year with more time with his WR's and maybe a healthy Gronk they will be a top-5 offense easy in this league.

I was thinking the same thing about the Seahawks fans. However their argument is much harder considering how poorly he played in the playoffs and the fact that he threw the game losing int in the SB. A little humility does wonders.

 

[cdumler7]

I was thinking the same thing about the Seahawks fans. However their argument is much harder considering how poorly he played in the playoffs and the fact that he threw the game losing int in the SB. A little humility does wonders.

Amazing how quickly the perspective of a player can change. If Wilson throws that game winning touchdown at the end of the Super Bowl he is easily talked about as a top-5 quarterback in the league even after his horrible NFC Championship game. With that pick though I think it keeps him right in that 10-12 range. Now contract wise though we are going to see him easily getting top-5 money here pretty soon. Which honestly I don't blame the Seahawks for paying him that as probably his greatest skill in my opinion is the ability to rise and carry the team when they absolutely need him to (other than the last game of course). Hard to find a player with that ability and it becomes worth the money. Although stats have shown that once you pay a quarterback like a top player your chances of going to the Super Bowl greatly decrease.

 

[gohusk]

How the hell did he play poorly? He had a 110 rating in the Super Bowl and a 149 rating in the Cards game. He played like shit against the packers but they were horrible throwing conditions and Rodgers was having issues himself with them. The last play is what it is. It was an awful play call that was an automatic throw at the snap if the pre-snap read looks ok. If not for that play and the Seahawks pull it off he's a no-brainer for Super Bowl MVP.

 

[BoBlake]

Amazing how quickly the perspective of a player can change. If Wilson throws that game winning touchdown at the end of the Super Bowl he is easily talked about as a top-5 quarterback in the league even after his horrible NFC Championship game. With that pick though I think it keeps him right in that 10-12 range.

My opinion of him hasn't changed. I've watched every game this kid has played and he's solidly in the 4-7 grouping with the potential to go higher...and after Brady/Manning retire he's going to be up there by default.

 

[SonnyCID]

My opinion of him hasn't changed. I've watched every game this kid has played and he's solidly in the 4-7 grouping with the potential to go higher...and after Brady/Manning retire he's going to be up there by default.

If the guy was 6'4", and everything else was equal (same production), he would be considered higher. People seem to spend a lot of time convincing themselves that he's not as good as he really is, the positives get downplayed, while the negatives get exaggerated.

 

[Uhsplit]

The only reason this gets plus one, is because I couldn't hit plus 10. All the Seahawks fans squealing like baby bird, ''Russell Smurf is number 1''

I have looked for the expected onslaught of Seahawk fans and so far from what I have seen is both cd and UK are out of touch. Maybe I missed the posts you refer to. Which #'s should I look at so I can prepare my apology to you 2?

 

[cdumler7]

Having him at that #10 spot is not an insult. That is where so many of you Hawks fans seem to get so upset is thinking that is some kind of insult. There are just a lot of good quarterbacks in the NFL right now and honestly depending who you ask those from about 5-12 are pretty interchangeable depending what you are looking for. The big knock for me on him is that he really does struggle playing from the pocket. If his legs ever go his game is really going to struggle. A great example is in the Super Bowl how often he made guys miss (which I understand is a big part of his game and why he is so good) to then run and make a play. I look at a guy like Andrew Luck as one though that plays 90% of the time from the pocket and only uses his legs as a very last resort so he is one that say he suffers a serious leg injury I still think he is a top-10 quarterback. I think if Wilson has a leg injury he becomes a middle of the pack type quarterback. I just don't see his running around like he does lasting much longer than another 5 years if that. He could be like RGIII this next season and just take a bad hit (yes I understand that could happen to any quarterback but again when he depends so much on his legs as part of his game he becomes very limited once that happens).

 

[cdumler7]

I have looked for the expected onslaught of Seahawk fans and so far from what I have seen is both cd and UK are out of touch. Maybe I missed the posts you refer to. Which #'s should I look at so I can prepare my apology to you 2?

Sheesh I put the guy at #10 and I am considered a hater? Wow sensitive much?

 

[SonnyCID]

Sheesh I put the guy at #10 and I am considered a hater? Wow sensitive much?

Nobody called you a hater.

 

[cdumler7]

Nobody called you a hater.

Ok so the word "Out of touch" was used. In my book that is a polite way of saying "hater." Maybe I am reading that wrong.

 

[SonnyCID]

Having him at that #10 spot is not an insult. That is where so many of you Hawks fans seem to get so upset is thinking that is some kind of insult. There are just a lot of good quarterbacks in the NFL right now and honestly depending who you ask those from about 5-12 are pretty interchangeable depending what you are looking for. The big knock for me on him is that he really does struggle playing from the pocket. If his legs ever go his game is really going to struggle. A great example is in the Super Bowl how often he made guys miss (which I understand is a big part of his game and why he is so good) to then run and make a play. I look at a guy like Andrew Luck as one though that plays 90% of the time from the pocket and only uses his legs as a very last resort so he is one that say he suffers a serious leg injury I still think he is a top-10 quarterback. I think if Wilson has a leg injury he becomes a middle of the pack type quarterback. I just don't see his running around like he does lasting much longer than another 5 years if that. He could be like RGIII this next season and just take a bad hit (yes I understand that could happen to any quarterback but again when he depends so much on his legs as part of his game he becomes very limited once that happens).

See, this what I'm talking about. So many of the arguments and comparisons used against Wilson are built around hypothetical(he's gonna get hurt), and exaggerations(Luck plays 90% in the pocket).

 

[cdumler7]

See, this what I'm talking about. So many of the arguments and comparisons used against Wilson are built around hypothetical(he's gonna get hurt), and exaggerations(Luck plays 90% in the pocket).

Actually that is not an exaggeration. Right now Wilson plays over 25% of his passes outside the pocket (given some of those are designed roll outs but a vast majority are just broken plays with some of them not even having pressure but him just thinking there is pressure).

Understand this that saying Wilson has some limitations to his game doesn't make him a bad quarterback. I can do the same for any quarterback such as Manning because of his poor arm strength and lack of movement is limited to actually having to stay in the pocket. Only about 3% of his throws are outside the pocket throughout a given season. This makes him an easier target and easier to know where to send the blitz. With Luck it comes down to he just seems to have brain farts on a semi regular basis. He can play out of this world for a while then just makes a crucial mistake that he doesn't need to make. He tries to force it way too much. Again though why I rank Andrew Luck above Wilson is I think Luck's game translates to just about any style of football that you need him to play. If he needs to play from the pocket he can tear a team apart. If he needs to get out of the pocket or make plays with his legs he can do that too. You take one away he is still very good at the other. Wilson again is a bit limited in if teams can force him to stay in the pocket (like we saw Green Bay do in the NFC Championship game) then he is more prone to mistakes as he just doesn't feel comfortable in the pocket. Throw in his lack of height does limit his abilities to throw over the middle. I would say the same thing about Brees in he does have some limitations over the middle which is why a majority of his passes are completed to the outside.

 

[Uhsplit]

I went back to the 1st post in this thread

Sheesh I put the guy at #10 and I am considered a hater? Wow sensitive much?

I went back to the beginning of this thread. It only took until post 3 for you to say Uh oh prepare for the onslaught of Seahawks fans being ticked that anybody would rate Russell Wilson out of the top-5 quarterbacks.

You truly sound like a bitch. Now, you say you are considered a hater by rating him at #10.
Piss off and stop putting words in my mouth.
I noted that you were incorrect about the Seahawk fans coming to RW's rescue as you usually are when talking about us.
Then UK jumps in and that is who I quoted above.
Through the 5th page, I have not seen any Hawk fans embarrass us. How many even said RW is top 5?
BTW, I would take RW over either Manning on my team. That is not saying RW is top 5, but it is saying what I think about the Mannings. Peighton's best days are behind him while RW's bet days are in front of him.

 

[Uhsplit]

Ok so the word "Out of touch" was used. In my book that is a polite way of saying "hater." Maybe I am reading that wrong.

You are out of touch because you incorrectly bashed Seahawk fans in post #3 and I have seen no evidence of that.

 

[cdumler7]

I went back to the 1st post in this thread

I went back to the beginning of this thread. It only took until post 3 for you to say Uh oh prepare for the onslaught of Seahawks fans being ticked that anybody would rate Russell Wilson out of the top-5 quarterbacks.

You truly sound like a bitch. Now, you say you are considered a hater by rating him at #10.
Piss off and stop putting words in my mouth.
I noted that you were incorrect about the Seahawk fans coming to RW's rescue as you usually are when talking about us.
Then UK jumps in and that is who I quoted above.
Through the 5th page, I have not seen any Hawk fans embarrass us. How many even said RW is top 5?
BTW, I would take RW over either Manning on my team. That is not saying RW is top 5, but it is saying what I think about the Mannings. Peighton's best days are behind him while RW's bet days are in front of him.

So saying a 39 year old quarterback's best days are behind him and a what 25 year olds best days are ahead of them is big news? I would take Wilson over Manning at this point too because of the quality years ahead of him compared to the maybe 1 more year of Manning.

Now about this thread I haven't gone back and read everything on this post. I saw that ScoobyDoo had quoted one of my posts and just responded. Now whether it was this thread or another I can't remember but I do remember getting attacked quite heavily by Seahawks fans for putting Wilson at that 10-spot before. Heck I had him at the 7 spot at one point and was still called a hater for doing such a thing. Others ran into the same problem. I think it might have been on the thread about whether Andrew Luck was a top-5 quarterback and it turned quickly into a debate not so much about Luck but about Wilson and his abilities on the field. Again I actually like Wilson and would only take a few of the quarterbacks in the league over him and would have a tough decision compared to a few others. I see a few weaknesses to his game just like I do any quarterback in the league.