SteelersPride
Well-Known Member
Wow. Awesome break down. Much appreciates. Thanks!Only the 2021 $5.4M pro-rata portion of the signing bonus would be on the line. The $17M bonus, (2023), and $20M salary for the same year don't become guaranteed until 2022. If he's on a roster with this contract in 2022 then those will become guaranteed regardless of any action he takes in 2021 - so that's not an issue. The CBA racks up substantial fines, up to 11/17ths of salary and all of the pro-rata signing bonus, but it stops at that point until the player misses any/all of the last 6 weeks of the season. (I haven't checked to see if this has changed in the latest CBA but I would be amazed if it had). The Texans could revoke the guarantee of Watson's $35M salary in 2022 but if they did that Watson would almost certainly sit out until Week 11 of the 2021 season and then go through the motions to stay safe, (to minimise the injury risk). The $35M salary would then become guaranteed in Week 1 of 2022, (assuming no injury). There's no realistic prospect of the Texans cutting Watson unless he was seriously injured so withdrawing the 2022 guarantee would be counter-productive.
Watson could still rack up fines of $6.82M + most/all of the $5.4M signing bonus very quickly, (certainly before the season started). If/when that happened there would be no reason for Watson to return before Week 11, (unless his team agreed to a contract re-write with weekly roster bonuses in 2021).
There's no financial 'win' scenario for Watson if he holds out. Financially he can only lose. If Watson sits out ALL of 2021 he will lose $15.94M. It comes down to whether Watson is serious about not returning to the Texans. If so the longer it takes to resolve the less he will be worth to other teams and the weaker the Texans trade position will be. After a year out he couldn't be worth as much as he is now.
All that said I don't think he sits out.