2024 Rosterbation

[tzill]

Was just reading an article about Ohtani and why he keeps playing this year.

Thought experiment: would the Giants be willing to pay him to sit out completely next year to rehab a second TJ surgery?

If so, how much should they offer?

WAG: 8/350.

 

[calsnowskier]

Was just reading an article about Ohtani and why he keeps playing this year.

Thought experiment: would the Giants be willing to pay him to sit out completely next year to rehab a second TJ surgery?

If so, how much should they offer?

WAG: 8/350.

50m per for potentially a DH or a bad fielding LFer.

WAY too many moving parts. Too many eggs in a single basket.

Granted, I have no idea what his marketing potential could be. How much of his salary will come back to the team in new revenues? Judging him ONLY by his on-field contributions is short sighted. But that is the only aspect I have visibility to.

 

[msgkings322]

50m per for potentially a DH or a bad fielding LFer.

WAY too many moving parts. Too many eggs in a single basket.

Granted, I have no idea what his marketing potential could be. How much of his salary will come back to the team in new revenues? Judging him ONLY by his on-field contributions is short sighted. But that is the only aspect I have visibility to.

You're correct about the marketing $$, the money isn't the issue. They should take their shot even though we all know he's going to the Dodgers.

Why do you think he'd be a bad LFer? Dude is big and athletic and obviously has an arm when it's not being surgically repaired.

And he could still be used as a pitcher for a few innings once every few days, like a Manaea who's actually good.

 

[LHG]

You're correct about the marketing $$, the money isn't the issue. They should take their shot even though we all know he's going to the Dodgers.

Why do you think he'd be a bad LFer? Dude is big and athletic and obviously has an arm when it's not being surgically repaired.

And he could still be used as a pitcher for a few innings once every few days, like a Manaea who's actually good.

I think there is a narrative that Ohtani is not a good outfielder. However, I haven't dug into his numbers from Japan to find out if that is true. He's only played a total of 8.1 innings in the outfield with the Angels. BBRef gives him a career dWAR of -5.6 but I would guess that comes from his pitching. However, they give him a dWAR of -0.7 in 2019 when all he did was DH. Not sure how that is possible. Makes me start to question BBRef's accuracy on dWAR.

 

[msgkings322]

I think there is a narrative that Ohtani is not a good outfielder. However, I haven't dug into his numbers from Japan to find out if that is true. He's only played a total of 8.1 innings in the outfield with the Angels. BBRef gives him a career dWAR of -5.6 but I would guess that comes from his pitching. However, they give him a dWAR of -0.7 in 2019 when all he did was DH. Not sure how that is possible. Makes me start to question BBRef's accuracy on dWAR.

This might be a case where common sense is more useful than numbers. Will he be a Gold Glover probably not. Will he be better than Joc? I would think very much so. He'll play the OF, DH, and occasionally throw a few innings. Worth it.

 

[calsnowskier]

This might be a case where common sense is more useful than numbers. Will he be a Gold Glover probably not. Will he be better than Joc? I would think very much so. He'll play the OF, DH, and occasionally throw a few innings. Worth it.

I think that it is impossible for us to factor. He is a unicorn in that he has a very distinct marketing value that very few players have. I assume most FOs will have a dollar value for what he would add to their market, and we have no idea what that number would be. Whatever he will be paid, his marketting value has to be factored in.

Will he generate 45m per year for the Giants between ‘24 and ‘31? Probably not. But can he generate 10m? 15m? 25m? Also, signing him will increase visibility of the club, likely increasing the value of the IP. That needs to be factored in as well.

So let’s assume (WAG) he will generate 20 WAR over a contract from ‘24-‘31. That’s 360m. 160m. (Edit: accidentally used 18m per WAR instead of 8m per WAR)

Let’s further assume he will generate 15m (WAG) per year in “non-baseball income”. That’s 120m.

Having a player of his stature has to increase the overall value of the franchise. Let’s place that at 200m total (WAG).

That puts the added value of an 8 year contract at approx 680m. 480m (edit: continuing the edit)

 

[LHG]

I think that it is impossible for us to factor. He is a unicorn in that he has a very distinct marketing value that very few players have. I assume most FOs will have a dollar value for what he would add to their market, and we have no idea what that number would be. Whatever he will be paid, his marketting value has to be factored in.

Will he generate 45m per year for the Giants between ‘24 and ‘31? Probably not. But can he generate 10m? 15m? 25m? Also, signing him will increase visibility of the club, likely increasing the value of the IP. That needs to be factored in as well.

So let’s assume (WAG) he will generate 20 WAR over a contract from ‘24-‘31. That’s 360m. 160m. (Edit: accidentally used 18m per WAR instead of 8m per WAR)

Let’s further assume he will generate 15m (WAG) per year in “non-baseball income”. That’s 120m.

Having a player of his stature has to increase the overall value of the franchise. Let’s place that at 200m total (WAG).

That puts the added value of an 8 year contract at approx 680m. 480m (edit: continuing the edit)

Then it sounds like, based on your numbers, that if tzill's offer would be competitive, it would very much be worth it. Of course its a gamble. Maybe the 2nd TJ surgery affects not just his pitching but his hitting, and only generates 10 WAR over 8 years. And that eventually affects the "non-baseball income" to something closer to 80m. And that takes the value of the franchise closer to 180m. Then the value of the deal is "only" 340m. A 10 million loss on a contract like that still seems tolerable in terms of a gamble.

 

[tzill]

It's a bit of an early preview for the offseason but the Giants will have a lot of money (AAV) coming off of the books including:

Joc Pederson - $19.65M
Brandon Crawford - $16M
Alex Wood - $12.5M
Jakob Junis - $2.8M
John Brebbia - $2.3M
Scott Alexander - $1.15M

Total-$54.4M

Gotta figure that only Brebbiauuugh will be back.

 

[calsnowskier]

It's a bit of an early preview for the offseason but the Giants will have a lot of money (AAV) coming off of the books including:

Joc Pederson - $19.65M
Brandon Crawford - $16M
Alex Wood - $12.5M
Jakob Junis - $2.8M
John Brebbia - $2.3M
Scott Alexander - $1.15M

Total-$54.4M

Gotta figure that only Brebbiauuugh will be back.

2024 locked raises…

Cobb - +$1M (assuming his option is picked up)
Haniger - +$12M
Tay Rogers - +$3M
Jackson - +$3.5M

Estimated Arb raises (WAG)…
+$13M total

$32.5M of that $54M goes to existing liabilities. So that means that we REALLY only have $21.5M coming off the books.

 

[LHG]

2024 locked raises…

Cobb - +$1M (assuming his option is picked up)
Haniger - +$12M
Tay Rogers - +$3M
Jackson - +$3.5M

Estimated Arb raises (WAG)…
+$13M total

$32.5M of that $54M goes to existing liabilities. So that means that we REALLY only have $21.5M coming off the books.

Yup, Haniger was really earned that raise. Too bad he probably will not "earn" that opt out.

 

[tzill]

2024 locked raises…

Cobb - +$1M (assuming his option is picked up)
Haniger - +$12M
Tay Rogers - +$3M
Jackson - +$3.5M

Estimated Arb raises (WAG)…
+$13M total

$32.5M of that $54M goes to existing liabilities. So that means that we REALLY only have $21.5M coming off the books.

My calc:
*estimates

Joc -- (19.7)
Craw -- (16)
Wood -- (12.5)
DeJong -- (100k)
Cobb -- 1
Taylor -- 3
Haniger -- 12
Pollock -- (1.3)
Yaz -- 2*
Webb -- 3.4
JDD -- 1*
Slater -- 2*
Jax -- 3.5
Junis -- (2.8)
Perez -- (2.5)
Brebbia -- 1*
Tyro -- 3*
Tyler -- 1.5*
LWJ -- 3*
Alexander -- (1.1)
Min Contracts (17 players) -- 8*
LaStella -- (10.8)


Total: (22.4M)



LaStella --

 

[tzill]

The Haniger contract hurts, and he also gets 15.5 in 25.

Not crippling, but still.

In 2025 we have 65 coming off the books:

Forto 18
Manaea 12.5
Stripling 12.5
Disco 12
Cobb 10

 

[calsnowskier]

My calc:
*estimates

Joc -- (19.7)
Craw -- (16)
Wood -- (12.5)
DeJong -- (100k)
Cobb -- 1
Taylor -- 3
Haniger -- 12
Pollock -- (1.3)
Yaz -- 2*
Webb -- 3.4
JDD -- 1*
Slater -- 2*
Jax -- 3.5
Junis -- (2.8)
Perez -- (2.5)
Brebbia -- 1*
Tyro -- 3*
Tyler -- 1.5*
LWJ -- 3*
Alexander -- (1.1)
Min Contracts (17 players) -- 8*
LaStella -- (10.8)


Total: (22.4M)



LaStella --

Nice breakdown.

So assuming no increase in team salary (not a likely assumption), we can only afford 1 semi-big FA add. But no Ohtani.

However…

In ‘23, the lux tax cutoff was at 233M. The Giants payroll was 188M (214M against the tax, though). Per COTS, the threshold will be at 237M in ‘24, and the Giants currently are on the hook for approx 113M (before Cobb and Arb players which would account for roughly 40M total). That should put us at approx 155M, or 80M under the threshold. All numbers are rough estimates, of course.

IMHO, this team is not nearly close enough to bother going up to the threshold, though.

 

[tzill]

Nice breakdown.

So assuming no increase in team salary (not a likely assumption), we can only afford 1 semi-big FA add. But no Ohtani.

However…

In ‘23, the lux tax cutoff was at 233M. The Giants payroll was 188M (214M against the tax, though). Per COTS, the threshold will be at 237M in ‘24, and the Giants currently are on the hook for approx 113M (before Cobb and Arb players which would account for roughly 40M total). That should put us at approx 155M, or 80M under the threshold. All numbers are rough estimates, of course.

IMHO, this team is not nearly close enough to bother going up to the threshold, though.

I dunno about that. If they can get Ohtani, they should absolutely do it.

 

[LHG]

Nice breakdown.

So assuming no increase in team salary (not a likely assumption), we can only afford 1 semi-big FA add. But no Ohtani.

However…

In ‘23, the lux tax cutoff was at 233M. The Giants payroll was 188M (214M against the tax, though). Per COTS, the threshold will be at 237M in ‘24, and the Giants currently are on the hook for approx 113M (before Cobb and Arb players which would account for roughly 40M total). That should put us at approx 155M, or 80M under the threshold. All numbers are rough estimates, of course.

IMHO, this team is not nearly close enough to bother going up to the threshold, though.

This team isn't a big name player away from contending. They don't have enough proven young players to find complimentary FA players to fill out the roster. They don't have enough prospects to be trading for good, young players. This team is in need of a blow up and rebuild.

 

[tzill]

This team isn't a big name player away from contending. They don't have enough proven young players to find complimentary FA players to fill out the roster. They don't have enough prospects to be trading for good, young players. This team is in need of a blow up and rebuild.

Ok, but how would you blow it up?

Trade Webb, Tyro, Doval, etc?

I don't see how you can do it, other than just releasing Forto, Haniger, Strip, Manaea, etc.

 

[LHG]

I dunno about that. If they can get Ohtani, they should absolutely do it.

I get the concept purely from the draw fans and have someone with cache perspective. However, this team doesn't even have the level of talent that the Angels had when they signed Ohtani. They already had one of the top 3 players in all of MLB when they pulled that trigger. If the Giants are not going over the tax threshold anytime soon, why invest all their money on one player and hope that they can somehow sneak into the playoffs once or twice?

 

[LHG]

Ok, but how would you blow it up?

Trade Webb, Tyro, Doval, etc?

I don't see how you can do it, other than just releasing Forto, Haniger, Strip, Manaea, etc.

They don't have to trade their good, young players. They do it precisely as you suggest, jettison some older non-performers and see what they can do in the draft. They may be able to get some C level prospects from Conforto and Stripling from another team so some of these guys may not need to be released.

 

[calsnowskier]

I dunno about that. If they can get Ohtani, they should absolutely do it.

Sure. He is a marketing unicorn. His salary should go into many different ledgers.

But they should treat signing him as gravy. Don’t let it get in the way of looking elsewhere. They were so super-focused on Judge last year that they were caught completely flat-footed when he (completely foreseeably) re-upped with the Spanks.

 

[tzill]

I get the concept purely from the draw fans and have someone with cache perspective. However, this team doesn't even have the level of talent that the Angels had when they signed Ohtani. They already had one of the top 3 players in all of MLB when they pulled that trigger. If the Giants are not going over the tax threshold anytime soon, why invest all their money on one player and hope that they can somehow sneak into the playoffs once or twice?

I think the plan would be to get Ohtani and continue to build around him, Webb, Harry, Bailey, Tyro, Schmitt, Ramos, Matos, Whisenhunt, etc. A lot of that is hopium that the kids are worth building around but I think that's the best path forward. And, Ohtani would put butts in the seats. Once you have him, getting other big FAs becomes a lot easier.