2024 Rosterbation

[tzill]

Good candidates, but I wonder if any of them actually NEED protection. I wouldn’t be knocked out of my chair if any of these guys get protected, though (or, conversely, get taken in the draft or traded).

I think Miller, Teng and Sanchez get snatched up if we don't protect them. The rest? Low probability of losing them, IMO.

 

[LHG]

Rule 5 candidates:

Erik Miller
Tyler Fitzgerald
Kai-Wei Teng
Juan Sanchez
Aeverson Arteaga
Victor Bericoto
Ben Madison
Grant McCray

My guess: we protect Teng, Sanchez, Miller, and maybe McCray

Miller, Teng and Sanchez were all exposed to the Rule 5 draft last year. Not saying that doesn't mean that they won't be protected this time but it makes me less likely to think that they will be protected.

(By the way Ben Madison has been eligible since after the 2021 season. He won't be protected.)

 

[calsnowskier]

Miller, Teng and Sanchez were all exposed to the Rule 5 draft last year. Not saying that doesn't mean that they won't be protected this time but it makes me less likely to think that they will be protected.

(By the way Ben Madison has been eligible since after the 2021 season. He won't be protected.)

Sanchez has gotten some attention this year for his leaps. Imho, I think he is actually probably LIKELY to be protected. Possibly Teng and Miller as well. I am less optimistic about McCray.

 

[LHG]

Here is what should be the complete list of Rule 5 eligible players this offseason, including minor league free agents (indicates highest level played, or, if injured all year, rostered):

Minor league free agents:
Pitchers (14) - Melvin Adon (Sac), Ray Burgos (Sac), Seth Corry (Eug), Sam Delaplane (Rich), Parker Dunshee (Sac), Tanner Kiest (Eug), Kade McClure (Sac), Luis Moreno (ACL), Ljay Newsome (SJ), Joe Ross (SJ)*, Logan Shore (ACL), Cody Stashak (Sac), Drew Strotman (Sac), Miguel Yajure (Sac)
Catchers (2) - Brett Cumberland (ACL), Ricardo Genoves (Rich)
Infielders (6) - Armando Alvarez (Sac), Johan Camargo (SF), Ronald Guzman (ACL), Ghordy Santos (Eug), Donovan Walton (Sac), Brady Whalen (Rich)
Outfielders (7) - Trenton Brooks (Sac), Luis Gonzalez (Sac), Bryce Johnson (SF), Jack Larsen (Sac), Shane Matheny (Sac), Ismael Munguia (Rich), Jackson Reetz (Sac)
*Possibly signed 2 year minor league deal at start of 2023

Rule 5 eligible since 2021:
Pitchers (6) - Tanner Andrews (Sac), Matt Frisbee (Sac), Clay Helvey (Rich), Ben Madison (Rich), Darien Nunez (Sac), Blake Rivera (Rich)
Catchers (1) - Braden Frankfort (ACL)
Infielders (2) - Sean Roby (Rich), Michael Wielansky (Eug)
Outfielders (0)

Rule 5 eligible since 2022:
Pitchers (13) - Nick Avila (Sac), Wilkelma Castillo (Eug), Jorge Garcia (SJ), Erik Miller (Sac), Roberto Monegro (ACL), Nick Morreale (Eug), Kanoa Pagan (ACL), Jose Perez (DSL), Julio Rodriguez (SJ), Juan Sanchez (Sac), Kai-Wei Teng (Sac), Michael Stryffeler (Rich), Chris Wright (Sac)
Catchers (2) - Cesar Gonzalez (Sac), Brandon Martorano (Rich)
Infielders (6) - Carter Aldrete (Rich), Connor Cannon (SJ), Tyler Fitzgerald (Sac), Luis Toribio (Eug), Will Wilson (Sac), Logan Wyatt (Rich)
Outfielders (5) - Victor Bericoto (Rich), Hunter Bishop (Rich), Patrick Hilson (SJ), Jairo Pomares (Eug), Alexander Suarez (SJ)

Rule 5 starting this offseason:
Pitchers (15) - Larry de Jesus (DSL), Lisander de la Cruz (ACL), RJ Dabovich (Sac), Rolfi Jimenez (ACL), Carlos Lopez (ACL), Mikell Manzano (SJ), Jorge Martinez (DSL), Trevor McDonald (Eug), Manuel Mercedes (SJ), Ryan Murphy (Rich), Ruben Ortiz (DSL), Carson Ragsdale (Eug), Esmerlin Vinicio (SJ), Ty Weber (Sac), Luis Yepez (DSL)
Catchers (0)
Infielders (4) - Brett Auerbach (Rich), Hayden Cantrelle (Rich), Garrett Frechette (SJ), Jimmy Glowenke (Rich), Dilan Rosario (Sac)
Outfielders (2) - Grant McCray (Eug), Yoshi Tsutsugo (Rich)*
*Unsure if he will be a minor league free agent due to his original contract in U.S. or if Giants still have control of his rights

 

[calsnowskier]

Avila was taken in the draft last year, so I would guess there is a chance he is protected, if they actually like him.

 

[LHG]

Avila was taken in the draft last year, so I would guess there is a chance he is protected, if they actually like him.

Looking at my lists, my thoughts on possible adds to the 40:
Minor league free agents - it could be possible the Giants re-sign a player and add him to the 40 man roster as part of retaining him. If that happens, I think the likeliest are Armando Alvarez or Trenton Brooks (or Sam Delaplane, just kidding, hopefully). Joe Ross may be added if they feel he is healthy enough another team will go for him in the draft (assuming that he is signed to a two year deal).

2021 class - There is no one in this group that suggests even a faint possibility for protection.

2022 class - Nick Avila, Erik Miller, Juan Sanchez, Kai-Wei Tang, Tyler Fitzgerald and Victor Bericoto all should get consideration. However, I wouldn't be surprised if none of them are protected. I do think that at least a couple of these guys would get drafted if left unprotected.

2023 class - Trevor McDonald, Jimmy Glowenke and Grant McCray stick out as the most likely players in this group to get added to the 40. However, McDonald has dealt with some major injuries and hasn't pitched much professionally; Glowenke has had some middling seasons and could probably pass through the draft safely and McCray didn't hit all that well in Eugene but is young. I could see none from this class being protected as well.

I still think that there will not be many guys (maybe 1 or 2) protected. The Giants seem less likely to protect guys the past few years. We'll see what happens this November.

 

[tzill]

Blake Sabol has done well against RHP this year, slashing .263/.322/.454 (112 wRC+) with a 31.2% K, 6.9% BB, and a .191 ISO. All 13 of his HR have come against RHP. Perhaps, he won't be in the middle of the order in those matchups but could add some nice length to the lineup. The strikeouts remain pretty high but, I guess, the one caveat is that he only had 101 plate appearances in AAA before reaching the majors. Plus, the Giants will need to solidify a position for him, but the platoon leverage will keep getting him at-bats.

 

[LHG]

Looking further at the 2023 class, there are 3 guys that stick out to me, but in a what could have been way. Brett Auerbach, RJ Dabovich and Carson Ragsdale all looked like potential locks for protection heading into the 2023 season. Auerbach impressed at big league camp, Dabovich shot up quickly through the system and Ragsdale was a prospect pick up in a trade from the Phillies. Auerbach bombed, however, in Richmond and got bumped down to Eugene. He didn't do much better there. Dabovich and Ragsdale lost significant time to injuries. Dabovich didn't look good in limited early season action but Ragsdale did look good but at Eugene (limited to 7 starts).

 

[LHG]

Looks like Waites is out for all of 2024:

Sept 13: RHP Cole Waites undergoes Tommy John surgery
The Giants announced that Waites underwent successful right elbow ulnar collateral ligament reconstruction surgery on Wednesday morning in Dallas with Dr. Keith Meister. His timetable for return to play is 12 to 16 months, meaning he'll likely miss the entire 2024 season while rehabbing.

 

[LHG]

Giants owner says Farhan Zaidi, Gabe Kapler ‘will both be here next year’

San Francisco Giants owner Greg Johnson reiterated that president of baseball operations Farhan Zaidi and manager Gabe Kapler aren’t going anywhere.

www.sfchronicle.com

 

[calsnowskier]

Giants owner says Farhan Zaidi, Gabe Kapler ‘will both be here next year’

San Francisco Giants owner Greg Johnson reiterated that president of baseball operations Farhan Zaidi and manager Gabe Kapler aren’t going anywhere.

www.sfchronicle.com

The dreaded “show of support”?

 

[tzill]

The dreaded “show of support”?

Nah, face value here.

They aint goin nowhere

 

[LHG]

The dreaded “show of support”?

Nah, face value here.

They aint goin nowhere

From what I read, both are currently under contract through 2024. It seems FZ has some weird opt out in his clause that will not be triggered. What I cannot remember if the opt out was for the club or him to exercise.

 

[calsnowskier]

As much as I vocally dislike FZ, I dislike organization chaos even more. I as reluctantly OK with both FZ and Kap coming back to finish their contracts. But I am also OK with their contracts NOT getting renewed.

IMHO, the org will need to demonstrate a firm direction and marked improvements in numerous areas (not all SF on-field areas). Seeing as it took FZ 5+ years to get to THIS point, I highly doubt he will be able to show the improvement I would like to see next season, but I am ok with Johnson, Baer, etc giving him one last year to show SOMETHING.

 

[tzill]

As much as I vocally dislike FZ, I dislike organization chaos even more. I as reluctantly OK with both FZ and Kap coming back to finish their contracts. But I am also OK with their contracts NOT getting renewed.

IMHO, the org will need to demonstrate a firm direction and marked improvements in numerous areas (not all SF on-field areas). Seeing as it took FZ 5+ years to get to THIS point, I highly doubt he will be able to show the improvement I would like to see next season, but I am ok with Johnson, Baer, etc giving him one last year to show SOMETHING.

The blueprint for a successful org is already there - the doyers and rays have show how to do it. You need an extremely strong minor league system churning out ML level players regularly. You hope for the occasional Bumgarner, Posey, Lincecum but you need the constant infusion of Crawfords, Cains, etc. SabeySabes wasn't great at this, despite some spectacular hits.

I think the minors are in the best shape they've ever been. FZ gets credit for this. He also gets credit for bringing in Pete Petulia, who was outstanding in the development role in Houston. If your minors are loaded, you either are promoting stars OR you have the assets to trade for them.

In the interim, he's churned the roster looking for small advantages wherever he can find them (waiver wire, minor trades, Rule 5 draft, etc.). We can call this "dumpster diving" but he's been effective with this strategy. As our talent increases, we will see less and less of this moving forward.

Shit takes time. Our minors were a mess when FZ got here.

 

[msgkings322]

The blueprint for a successful org is already there - the doyers and rays have show how to do it. You need an extremely strong minor league system churning out ML level players regularly. You hope for the occasional Bumgarner, Posey, Lincecum but you need the constant infusion of Crawfords, Cains, etc. SabeySabes wasn't great at this, despite some spectacular hits.

I think the minors are in the best shape they've ever been. FZ gets credit for this. He also gets credit for bringing in Pete Petulia, who was outstanding in the development role in Houston. If your minors are loaded, you either are promoting stars OR you have the assets to trade for them.

In the interim, he's churned the roster looking for small advantages wherever he can find them (waiver wire, minor trades, Rule 5 draft, etc.). We can call this "dumpster diving" but he's been effective with this strategy. As our talent increases, we will see less and less of this moving forward.

Shit takes time. Our minors were a mess when FZ got here.

Are the minors that great though? Where are our can't miss future stars? We got some nice players but I don't see any Acuna/Tatis/De La Cruz level studs. Bailey/Schmitt/Matos ain't that level.

 

[tzill]

Are the minors that great though? Where are our can't miss future stars? We got some nice players but I don't see any Acuna/Tatis/De La Cruz level studs. Bailey/Schmitt/Matos ain't that level.

I don't know that you necessarily need to produce stars. It's helpful for sure, but not necessary. That said, we have no idea if Lucy, Harry, Heliot, Whisenhunt, Birdsong, Casey, Bailey, etc. will turn out to be stars. Point is the org is stronger than it's EVER been. They've poured a TON of resources into it and it's starting to show. You ever remember a season with this many rookies making impact?

 

[stanford the manford]

OK roster gurus….. when I look at our lad’s roster I ask myself how does this roster compare against MLB division leaders

Outside of Webb and Doval is there any Giant who’d land a starting position on any of the division leaders? On any of the Wild Card contenders?

I dont think Kap makes up for the lack of talent and until we have a few position players on par with the best we’ll continue to aspire to a WC slot. IMO we’ve been behind on the talent curve since around ‘16. High productive free agent aren’t coming here for a variety of reasons.

is there realistic hope in the minors or snagging elite internationals?

Or is the plan just to hope we get a B talent team to have a career year?

 

[calsnowskier]

I don't know that you necessarily need to produce stars. It's helpful for sure, but not necessary. That said, we have no idea if Lucy, Harry, Heliot, Whisenhunt, Birdsong, Casey, Bailey, etc. will turn out to be stars. Point is the org is stronger than it's EVER been. They've poured a TON of resources into it and it's starting to show. You ever remember a season with this many rookies making impact?

But are they making positive impacts?

Bailey is for sure a positive, but how much of an impact can a glove-only catcher really be?

Walker has been nice, but he is just a bully arm. Maybe a nice 8th inning guy eventually, sure, but still just a bully arm.

Matos looks like he may be nice someday, but he has not REALLY been a contributor THIS year. Same goes for Schmitt and Harry.

 

[LHG]

But are they making positive impacts?

Bailey is for sure a positive, but how much of an impact can a glove-only catcher really be?

Walker has been nice, but he is just a bully arm. Maybe a nice 8th inning guy eventually, sure, but still just a bully arm.

Matos looks like he may be nice someday, but he has not REALLY been a contributor THIS year. Same goes for Schmitt and Harry.

Man, this year has been a mixed bag for me in terms of org guys playing. Yes, a lot of them have gotten a decent look. Not many have looked good. I'm not ready to throw any of them out (Johnson will likely sign elsewhere but the Giants CAN retain the rest) but I feel a little discouraged about many of them. And the ones that have redeemed themselves a bit in the minors are not getting a fair shot. But at least it seems possible that the farm guys will at least get shots on the big league club.