2019 Rosterbation

[SFGRTB]

Yup (about Hundley, not Bart). At this point, I would almost be surprised if he does not return.

I would be SHOCKED if Bart gets a cuppo this year. Even if he destroys the minors, why starthis clock now?

Like I said probably a bit too out on a limb, but if he destroys MiLB pitching and shows enough intangibles, why wait? Don't want to waste prime years of a catcher and he'd be learning at the ML level from Posey and Bochy, which is incredible value.

My thoughts re-service time, sure they start the clock early so he starts making big money earlier, but that isn't really a factor with this franchise. If he turns out to be the next franchise guy, you're paying him whatever it takes. Plus when Bart needs to get paid, there's no one on the books yet anyway.

Service time has always been a big joke that owners have drilled into their GM's heads, and outside observers as well. If the player turns out what you dream they become, you're going to pay them. By holding back a player if anything you're building some ill-will from the start.

Bit of a tangent there because I don't expect that to be an issue for Bart and it's far-fetched to say that they'd be holding him back in his first full season.

I don't anticipate Bart coming up this year, but I wouldn't be surprised if it happened.

 

[LHG]

If Bart plays at all in 2019 with SF, it is REALLY going to be a punt year.

Here's my not very well thought out scenario - Hundley is NOT brought back, but close to the start of spring training, Zaidi picks off a lower end name still available (Butera, Ellis, etc) and has him around just long enough to catch some games before Posey is healthy and then jettisons the short term catcher.

 

[LHG]

Some movement going on in the free agent market (although most of the signings are 1 year deals). Two middle infielders got snapped up and there is this - Giants Interested In DJ LeMahieu, Exploring Joe Panik Trades

Also, Corey Gearrin got signed by the Mariners. Why he is employed while Santiago Casilla and Sergio Romo still don't have deals is beyond me.

Lastly, could this guy be the 40th roster spot soon - White Sox Designate Charlie Tilson For Assignment

 

[LHG]

Was talking with a co-worker the other day (who is a big Angels' fan) and he mentioned that he heard somewhere about a rumor of the Angels looking at a trade with the Giants where Will Smith or Tony Watson is traded along with Evan Longoria in exchange for Zack Cozart and a B level prospect. Supposedly, both teams would take on the contracts of the players that they receive.
I don't know where he heard that so it could be a valid rumor or some wild speculation, but, if true, I hope the Giants say no to that one. While I'd like to see Longoria's contract off the books, I'm not sure about the idea of Cozart manning 3rd at Oracle Park. If he had trouble hitting in Anaheim, he's going to look worse in SF and his defense at the hot corner is nothing to be desired. And a B level prospect seems a little low to get back for either Smith or Watson. However, they may be the going rate for an excellent left handed reliever. So I don't know what to make about whether this would be a good trade or not.

 

[calsnowskier]

Cozart has 2/25.3 with no option for ‘21. That is approx 3 WAR over 2 years. Ignoring his break out ‘17, he is essentially a bit over a 1 WAR player.

Longo has 4/58.2 with a 5M buy out on a 13M ‘23 option. That is approx 8 WAR over 4 years (assuming buy out). He had his worst season BY FAR in ‘18 (1.3 oWAR). I think it fair to expect him to be a 1.5 - 2.5 WAR player moving forward. That’s 6-12 WAR.

Sure, Longo is overpaid, but not horrendously overpaid. Cozart has a short contract, but should not meet his contract value.

I think Longo is closer to a positive asset than Cozart. The Angels should be sweetening the pot in that swap, not the Giants.

 

[SFGRTB]

Cozart has 2/25.3 with no option for ‘21. That is approx 3 WAR over 2 years. Ignoring his break out ‘17, he is essentially a bit over a 1 WAR player.

Longo has 4/58.2 with a 5M buy out on a 13M ‘23 option. That is approx 8 WAR over 4 years (assuming buy out). He had his worst season BY FAR in ‘18 (1.3 oWAR). I think it fair to expect him to be a 1.5 - 2.5 WAR player moving forward. That’s 6-12 WAR.

Sure, Longo is overpaid, but not horrendously overpaid. Cozart has a short contract, but should not meet his contract value.

I think Longo is closer to a positive asset than Cozart. The Angels should be sweetening the pot in that swap, not the Giants.

I also don't think this team should be desperate to shed Longo's contract. They should be using other team's desire to shed their own contracts, like you allude to here.

I think the only deals they should be desperately trying to trade are Melancon's and Cueto's, but both deals have such negative value at this point that it's near-impossible.

If they used someone like Smith, arguably their very best trade piece, in a salary dump, that would be incredibly disappointing.

 

[LHG]

I also don't think this team should be desperate to shed Longo's contract. They should be using other team's desire to shed their own contracts, like you allude to here.

I think the only deals they should be desperately trying to trade are Melancon's and Cueto's, but both deals have such negative value at this point that it's near-impossible.

If they used someone like Smith, arguably their very best trade piece, in a salary dump, that would be incredibly disappointing.

I agree with most of what you are saying. Add to Cueto the fact that he won't even pitch this year, and there's no way he gets traded. If Melancon shows anything decent in the first half of 2019, I hope that they swing something for him by the end of July (unless he is contributing to a legitimate playoff run).

I do think that Watson is a better trade piece than Smith, only because he's put up more consistently good numbers through his career and hasn't had any major injury issues (at least, that I can remember). But using either in a salary dump would be disappointing, unless the other team will give back an A level prospect or a couple of B level prospects.

 

[SFGRTB]

I agree with most of what you are saying. Add to Cueto the fact that he won't even pitch this year, and there's no way he gets traded. If Melancon shows anything decent in the first half of 2019, I hope that they swing something for him by the end of July (unless he is contributing to a legitimate playoff run).

I do think that Watson is a better trade piece than Smith, only because he's put up more consistently good numbers through his career and hasn't had any major injury issues (at least, that I can remember). But using either in a salary dump would be disappointing, unless the other team will give back an A level prospect or a couple of B level prospects.

IDK, I'm picking Smith in almost any situation over Watson. Smith has the nasty factor as well that Watson really doesn't have. Plus he's four years younger. Watson has the contract, which plays a pretty big part though.

At the end of the day, I think both guys could fetch a nice package. Hopefully both are healthy and doing well next July.

 

[MarcoPolo]

Yup (about Hundley, not Bart). At this point, I would almost be surprised if he does not return.

I would be SHOCKED if Bart gets a cuppo this year. Even if he destroys the minors, why starthis clock now?

I have to agree, both on Hundley and Bart. (Unless Hundley gets a 'knock the socks off' offer from somebody'.)

Bart should be moved up through the minors at a nice, regular pace. Starting the year in San Jose, with a possible promo to Richmond mid-year if he kills it in San Jose. Then the following year starting in Richmond (unless he killed it for half a year in Richmond), and moved up to Sacramento only after destroying AA (or 2021 rolls around). Then, kept in Sac until needed. There's no need for him to even visit SF until 2021 or later.

The "clock" has several aspects :
- option years. He will have a max of 3. Once he goes on the 40-man (which he must to play in the bigs) every year he plays even a single game in the minors is an option year (well, except for rehab assignments). Once those option years are used up, he has to pass through wavers for the giants to keep him (or, he has to stay in the majors). The earlier a player is moved to the bigs, the shorter the time to evaluate (and train , and grow) said player. The player will have a max of 3 years in the minors after he first sets foot on a major league field. After that, another team can steal him (one way or another). It makes no sense to start all of that at this point - he was drafted in 2018!

- time before becoming arb-eligible. This is counted in years and days of "service time" (days on an active roster). It changes a bit year by year, but it's two years and change (2 yrs and 120-ish days). That's the demarcation line between "cheap" and "oh shite, we have to pay him closer to what he's worth". Why add days on to that counter this early in his career?

- time before becoming a free agent. This is also determined by "service time". 6 years and zero days. Why add extra days onto the counter, possibly hastening his departure as a free agent? Wouldn't you rather that he have 5 years and 177 days (i.e., still under Giants control) at the beginning of the 2027 season, instead of 6 years and 3 days (making him a free agent) ? Just a week or two CAN make a huge difference.

Bart shouldn't be added to the roster before 2021, at the earliest - unless it is because he is so damn good and has blown away the competition at every level that he has *earned* his way onto the roster. Posey is signed through the end of 2021, and has a 2022 option.

 

[calsnowskier]

I have to agree, both on Hundley and Bart. (Unless Hundley gets a 'knock the socks off' offer from somebody'.)

Bart should be moved up through the minors at a nice, regular pace. Starting the year in San Jose, with a possible promo to Richmond mid-year if he kills it in San Jose. Then the following year starting in Richmond (unless he killed it for half a year in Richmond), and moved up to Sacramento only after destroying AA (or 2021 rolls around). Then, kept in Sac until needed. There's no need for him to even visit SF until 2021 or later.

The "clock" has several aspects :
- option years. He will have a max of 3. Once he goes on the 40-man (which he must to play in the bigs) every year he plays even a single game in the minors is an option year (well, except for rehab assignments). Once those option years are used up, he has to pass through wavers for the giants to keep him (or, he has to stay in the majors). The earlier a player is moved to the bigs, the shorter the time to evaluate (and train , and grow) said player. The player will have a max of 3 years in the minors after he first sets foot on a major league field. After that, another team can steal him (one way or another). It makes no sense to start all of that at this point - he was drafted in 2018!

- time before becoming arb-eligible. This is counted in years and days of "service time" (days on an active roster). It changes a bit year by year, but it's two years and change (2 yrs and 120-ish days). That's the demarcation line between "cheap" and "oh shite, we have to pay him closer to what he's worth". Why add days on to that counter this early in his career?

- time before becoming a free agent. This is also determined by "service time". 6 years and zero days. Why add extra days onto the counter, possibly hastening his departure as a free agent? Wouldn't you rather that he have 5 years and 177 days (i.e., still under Giants control) at the beginning of the 2027 season, instead of 6 years and 3 days (making him a free agent) ? Just a week or two CAN make a huge difference.

Bart shouldn't be added to the roster before 2021, at the earliest - unless it is because he is so damn good and has blown away the competition at every level that he has *earned* his way onto the roster. Posey is signed through the end of 2021, and has a 2022 option.

Actually, a player can be sent down for less than 10 days without using an option.

 

[SFGRTB]

I have to agree, both on Hundley and Bart. (Unless Hundley gets a 'knock the socks off' offer from somebody'.)

Bart should be moved up through the minors at a nice, regular pace. Starting the year in San Jose, with a possible promo to Richmond mid-year if he kills it in San Jose. Then the following year starting in Richmond (unless he killed it for half a year in Richmond), and moved up to Sacramento only after destroying AA (or 2021 rolls around). Then, kept in Sac until needed. There's no need for him to even visit SF until 2021 or later.

The "clock" has several aspects :
- option years. He will have a max of 3. Once he goes on the 40-man (which he must to play in the bigs) every year he plays even a single game in the minors is an option year (well, except for rehab assignments). Once those option years are used up, he has to pass through wavers for the giants to keep him (or, he has to stay in the majors). The earlier a player is moved to the bigs, the shorter the time to evaluate (and train , and grow) said player. The player will have a max of 3 years in the minors after he first sets foot on a major league field. After that, another team can steal him (one way or another). It makes no sense to start all of that at this point - he was drafted in 2018!

- time before becoming arb-eligible. This is counted in years and days of "service time" (days on an active roster). It changes a bit year by year, but it's two years and change (2 yrs and 120-ish days). That's the demarcation line between "cheap" and "oh shite, we have to pay him closer to what he's worth". Why add days on to that counter this early in his career?

- time before becoming a free agent. This is also determined by "service time". 6 years and zero days. Why add extra days onto the counter, possibly hastening his departure as a free agent? Wouldn't you rather that he have 5 years and 177 days (i.e., still under Giants control) at the beginning of the 2027 season, instead of 6 years and 3 days (making him a free agent) ? Just a week or two CAN make a huge difference.

Bart shouldn't be added to the roster before 2021, at the earliest - unless it is because he is so damn good and has blown away the competition at every level that he has *earned* his way onto the roster. Posey is signed through the end of 2021, and has a 2022 option.

My argument against this, for a team like the Giants, is it really shouldn't matter. Absolutely, next year would be very early, but 2021 at the earliest? No way. The Giants are a big money team, service time shouldn't be much of an issue at all. If anything it creates better trust between the organization and the player for not holding them back. I understand all of your arguments and they make sense in general but I just don't think it makes as much sense for this team.

Give Bart all the time he needs, but if he's just way ahead of the curve at every stop I'm not hesitating at all.

 

[LHG]

Some movement going on in the free agent market (although most of the signings are 1 year deals). Two middle infielders got snapped up and there is this - Giants Interested In DJ LeMahieu, Exploring Joe Panik Trades

Also, Corey Gearrin got signed by the Mariners. Why he is employed while Santiago Casilla and Sergio Romo still don't have deals is beyond me.

Lastly, could this guy be the 40th roster spot soon - White Sox Designate Charlie Tilson For Assignment

No LeMahieu for the Giants. He just signed a 2 year, $24 million deal with the Yankees. I really hope the Giants don't ship out Panik just to sign Harrison. Unless Panik brings back a good return, it would be pointless. The only other 2nd basemen on the free agent market are Asdrubal Cabrera, Josh Harrison, Neil Walker, Logan Forsythe, Ryan Flaherty, Sean Rodriguez, Brandon Phillips, Andrew Romine and Gordon Beckham.

 

[SFGRTB]

How about the timing of this article?

Giants expect Bart, Ramos to start 2019 in San Jose

 

[MarcoPolo]

Actually, a player can be sent down for less than 10 days without using an option.

Oops. Yeah, it's not 'a single day'. I think that if a player spends 20 days or more on a minor league roster then they use an option.

Also, a player sent to the minors CANNOT be called back to the majors for 10 days (except to replace an injured player).

And if a player spends 10 days (well, about 10 days) or less in the minors but the rest on the major league roster he will be credited a full year of service time (which has nothing to do with options).

 

[LHG]

This from MLB Trade Rumors:

• The Angels are evidently a team to watch on Giants southpaws Will Smith and Tony Watson, as Andrew Baggarly of The Athletic reports that the teams “have been in constant contact this winter” regarding both pitchers (subscription link). It’s not surprising to see the Halos chasing lefties, as their current staff is quite thin in that area. Whether or not the club will offer up enough to entice the Giants remains to be seen. The San Francisco org is surely willing to deal either or both of these veteran relievers, each of whom is coming off of a strong season with an appealing contract situation, but there figures to be ample interest from other teams as well. With many of the best free agent relievers already off the board, now may be the time for new Giants president of baseball operations Farhan Zaidi to market his southpaws in earnest.

 

[LHG]

How about the timing of this article?

Giants expect Bart, Ramos to start 2019 in San Jose

As I was crunching the numbers on outfielders in the org, I realized that Ramos almost has to be moved up. Not enough guys in front of him and too many behind him.

 

[SFGRTB]

As I was crunching the numbers on outfielders in the org, I realized that Ramos almost has to be moved up. Not enough guys in front of him and too many behind him.

I think they also want to get him in a more hitter friendly league. The SALeague can be pretty rough on bats, and the pitching jump from A to high-A isn't nearly as bad as it is from high-A to AA.

 

[SFGRTB]

Zaidi said yesterday that he expects a "signing or trade" in the next "three or four" days, which is interestingly candid and specific, yet vague.

Some chatter about Panik and the lefty relievers

 

[calsnowskier]

Zaidi said yesterday that he expects a "signing or trade" in the next "three or four" days, which is interestingly candid and specific, yet vague.

Some chatter about Panik and the lefty relievers

When he said that, Murph and Mac (and I agreed) speculated it would be signing LeMahieu and trading Panik.

Well, that ain’t gunna happen...

 

[LHG]

When he said that, Murph and Mac (and I agreed) speculated it would be signing LeMahieu and trading Panik.

Well, that ain’t gunna happen...

They could trade for LeMahieu. The remaining options on the free agent market are not worth replacing Panik, unless Panik brings back some decent prospects (which he probably wouldn't).