2014 Rosterbation

[tzill]

(Credit tzill for the template)

Under contract:
Cain 20.8
Lincecum 17.5
Pence 16.0
Pagan 10.3
Scutaro 6.7
Affeldt 6.0
Sandoval 8.3
Casilla 4.5
Posey 11.3
Romo 5.5
Bumgarner 4.0
Crawford 0.6
Sanchez 0.6

Total: 13 players @ $112.1MM

Minor League Options (guys who will earn the league min if they make Opening Day roster):

Dunning
Kontos
Hembree
Moscoso
Rosario
Machi
Kickham
Surkamp
Pill (out of options)
Noonan
Adrianza
Kieschnick
Peguero
Perez

Arbitration eligible and estimated 2014 salaries:
Mijares 2.1
Blanco 2.2
Arias 1.2
Belt 2.4
Abreu 0.7
Petit 1.3

Options:
Zito 18MM (7.5 buyout)
Vogelson 6.5MM (0.3 buyout)

Free agents
Lopez
Gaudin


SP: Bum/Cain/Lincecum/(open)/(open)
RP: Romo/KCya/JA/(open)/(open)/(open)/(open)
C: Buster/Chez3
IF: BB9/Moped/Stamos/Panda/(open)/(open)
OF: Herk/Oxy/(open)/(open)/(open)

All these guys are pretty much a given, the 13 under contract + Belt. That put's the total at $114.5MM for 14 guys. 11 spots to fill.

Lopez+ 3 of Hembree, Dunning, Kickham, Kontos, Machi, Rosario will fill out the bullpen. I predict Lopez gets a 2 year-$12MM deal so between Lopez and the 3 minor league guys it's $7.5MM putting the total at $122MM with 7 spots to fill.

IF bench can be filled with Pill and Abreu for around $1.5MM putting the total at $123.5MM with 5 spots to fill.

In the outfield, Blanco is likely to return as a 4th OFer and a minor leaguer/minor league FA can fill the 5th OF spot in Spring Training, adding $2.7MM, bringing the total to $126.2MM for 3 spots.

Volgey seems like a prime candidate to have his contract "re-worked" in a way. Giants could decline his option and resign him to a cheaper base-deal where incentives get him back up to his $6.5MM salary, maybe even exceeding it to sweeten the deal.

Giants 2013 salary commitments was about $137MM, and they are likely to bump that up a little for a LFer. It's looking like we may have around $15-20MM in 2014 salaries to find a LFer and 2 starting pitchers.

Arias is a lock to make the club as a reserve IF. The other spot will come from Pill/Abreu/Noonan/Panik

The bullpen will almost definitely have Mijares and Hembree, and may have Gaudin. Machi is another candidate, but I doubt Kontos makes it. The rest are org depth at Fresno. Vogey may take Gaudin's spot. I'd expect them to pick up someone like Bronson Arroyo to fill out the rotation, with Petit being the #5 guy. Agosta will challenge to make the club in ST as well.

 

[Villain]

Please sign Bronson Arroyo.

 

[tzill]

The Giants could trade for someone like Brandon Phillips and Nate McLouth, and then Scoots would become a super utility guy. My roster guess:

SP: Bum/Cain/Timmy/Arroyo/Petit
RP: Romo/JA/KCya/JLo/Hembree/Mijares/Tron
C: Buster/Chez3
IF: BB9/Phillips/Stamos/Panda/Kobe/Scoots
OF: Herk/Oxy/McLouth/Shark/JCP

 

[tzill]

Please sign Bronson Arroyo.

Please continue to make a mockery of payroll.

 

[SFGRTB]

Arias is a lock to make the club as a reserve IF. The other spot will come from Pill/Abreu/Noonan/Panik

The bullpen will almost definitely have Mijares and Hembree, and may have Gaudin. Machi is another candidate, but I doubt Kontos makes it. The rest are org depth at Fresno. Vogey may take Gaudin's spot. I'd expect them to pick up someone like Bronson Arroyo to fill out the rotation, with Petit being the #5 guy. Agosta will challenge to make the club in ST as well.

Already addressed Arias and I agree.

I don't think it's such a sure thing with Mijares, he wasn't exactly effective and is not cheap. 1.77 WHIP :mmph:. Granted a .410 BABIP is ridiculously high, but he was pretty rough most of the year. I don't think Mijares+Lopez can happen (don't know if you meant Mijares instead of Lopez or both but regardless), and if I had to choose one, I'd choose Lopez and roll the dice with Kickham as Affeldt's inevitable injury replacement. Plus, don't count out Osich as a potential dark horse, could appear next summer.

I'd like Arroyo a lot too, but likely at the expense of Volgey and Gaudin if we want to find any kind of serviceable 3rd outfielder.

 

[Villain]

Please continue to make a mockery of payroll.

This is a thread about the Giants roster. Not a team payroll pissing contest.

And speaking of the Giants payroll... What kinda cash do you expect Arroyo to sign for now that a similar pitcher just signed for 2 years and 35 million dollars?

 

[tzill]

Already addressed Arias and I agree.

I don't think it's such a sure thing with Mijares, he wasn't exactly effective and is not cheap. 1.77 WHIP :mmph:. Granted a .410 BABIP is ridiculously high, but he was pretty rough most of the year. I don't think Mijares+Lopez can happen (don't know if you meant Mijares instead of Lopez or both but regardless), and if I had to choose one, I'd choose Lopez and roll the dice with Kickham as Affeldt's inevitable injury replacement. Plus, don't count out Osich as a potential dark horse, could appear next summer.

I'd like Arroyo a lot too, but likely at the expense of Volgey and Gaudin if we want to find any kind of serviceable 3rd outfielder.

I think they keep Mijares AND JLo AND Vogey. Gaudin only if they cut Tron loose. Agosta would be the AA guy I'd think with the best shot at coming up this year (in fact a long shot for the #5 starter). As is, Hembree and Dunning probably break camp with the big club. Kick and Kamp go to Fresno as org depth, with the loser of the Agosta/Petit battle.

 

[tzill]

This is a thread about the Giants roster. Not a team payroll pissing contest.

And speaking of the Giants payroll... What kinda cash do you expect Arroyo to sign for now that a similar pitcher just signed for 2 years and 35 million dollars?

Then stop pissing on the thread, jackass.

Arroyo is probably 1/10 or 1/12.

 

[Villain]

Arroyo is probably 1/10 or 1/12.

2012-2013, Player A: 4.76 ERA, 3.9 BB/p, 9.0 K/9, 2.31 K/BB, 72 ERA+, and 1.389 WHIP
2012-2013, Player B: 3.76 ERA, 1.5 BB/9, 5.6 K/9, 3.67 K/BB, 105 ERA+, and 1.181 WHIP

Which one deserves more money?

 

[tzill]

2012-2013, Player A: 4.76 ERA, 3.9 BB/p, 9.0 K/9, 2.31 K/BB, 72 ERA+, and 1.389 WHIP
2012-2013, Player B: 3.76 ERA, 1.5 BB/9, 5.6 K/9, 3.67 K/BB, 105 ERA+, and 1.181 WHIP

Which one deserves more money?

Depends. Not enough information. What are their FIPs, how many awards have they won, what are their ages, how have they looked over their last 20 starts, how durable are they?

 

[calsnowskier]

tz, I suspect you mean Escobar, not Agosta. Agosta had a rather disappointing season in A- this year, and is no where near MLB ready. Escobar was the breakout of the Uber-Arms.

 

[calsnowskier]

2012-2013, Player A: 4.76 ERA, 3.9 BB/p, 9.0 K/9, 2.31 K/BB, 72 ERA+, and 1.389 WHIP
2012-2013, Player B: 3.76 ERA, 1.5 BB/9, 5.6 K/9, 3.67 K/BB, 105 ERA+, and 1.181 WHIP

Which one deserves more money?

Arroyo is 38. Timmeh is 30 with some serious recent hardware and a high level of marketability. No way Arroyo even sniffs 17.5 per. I suspect a decent amount of Timmeh's contract will fall under the marketing budget rather than on-field talent budget.

Arroyo is a fine pitcher, but I am not a huge fan of signing him. Old pitchers are a HUGE risk. Signing someone like him next year MAY make sense since more of the Uber-Arms will be near-MLB ready, but with only one of them with experience at AA or higher, it is not a good risk.

 

[VASFfan]

tz, I suspect you mean Escobar, not Agosta. Agosta had a rather disappointing season in A- this year, and is no where near MLB ready. Escobar was the breakout of the Uber-Arms.

9-3, 2.06 ERA, 1.09 WHIP, 109 K's in 91 innings is disappointing? I know he had a couple of injury stints, but other than that we should all be so disappointing. Or maybe you were thinking of Stratton? Given that he was a first round pick, he WAS disappointing.

 

[moxie]

Arroyo is 38. Timmeh is 30 with some serious recent hardware and a high level of marketability. No way Arroyo even sniffs 17.5 per. I suspect a decent amount of Timmeh's contract will fall under the marketing budget rather than on-field talent budget.

Arroyo is a fine pitcher, but I am not a huge fan of signing him. Old pitchers are a HUGE risk. Signing someone like him next year MAY make sense since more of the Uber-Arms will be near-MLB ready, but with only one of them with experience at AA or higher, it is not a good risk.

So true. Aside from merchandise bearing his name/likeness, there's no real way to calculate his contributions. I know for me personally, if I have to choose, I will go to the game he is pitching in a 3 game series just because I like watching him. (Unless my other option is Vogey hehehe)

 

[calsnowskier]

9-3, 2.06 ERA, 1.09 WHIP, 109 K's in 91 innings is disappointing? I know he had a couple of injury stints, but other than that we should all be so disappointing. Or maybe you were thinking of Stratton? Given that he was a first round pick, he WAS disappointing.

I was basing my comment on scouting reports that I have read stating that his velocity was not where it was hoped to be and his secondary pitches were not plus. On the other hand, I have read that the org was actually relatively pleased with Stratton. Apparently he was working on aspects of his game instead of his stats in '13.

Regardless, I stand behind my comment that tz was mistaken and intended to "say" Escobar.

 

[Villain]

Depends. Not enough information. What are their FIPs, how many awards have they won, what are their ages, how have they looked over their last 20 starts, how durable are they?

You factor in past awards to pitcher salary?

Can't wait to see how much you're willing to pay RA Dickey and Johan Santana.

 

[SFAnthem]

You factor in past awards to pitcher salary?

Can't wait to see how much you're willing to pay RA Dickey and Johan Santana.

Past awards are a result of past performance..are you saying one shouldn't take past performance into account when determining a new contract?


What should anyone put on their resume then?

It's just one of the factors but past performance should absolutely count.

 

[Villain]

Past awards are a result of past performance..are you saying one shouldn't take past performance into account when determining a new contract?

No, I'm saying that I posted a plethora of stats and he said "nope, not enough! need to know how many awards those guys have!"

What should anyone put on their resume then?

It's just one of the factors but past performance should absolutely count.

Yeah, I posted 2 year samples of statistics. Those count as "past performance." I'm not sure what other category you're thinking these other stats belong in.

Andre Ethier, a terrible outfield defender, has a gold glove. Are you going to factor that into his next contract?

 

[calsnowskier]

No, I'm saying that I posted a plethora of stats and he said "nope, not enough! need to know how many awards those guys have!"



Yeah, I posted 2 year samples of statistics. Those count as "past performance." I'm not sure what other category you're thinking these other stats belong in.

Andre Ethier, a terrible outfield defender, has a gold glove. Are you going to factor that into his next contract?

Are you really going to equate World Series Rings and Cy Young awards to Golden Gloves? Also, you apparently completely disregard age and marketability.

 

[Villain]

Are you really going to equate World Series Rings and Cy Young awards to Golden Gloves? Also, you apparently completely disregard age and marketability.

Age is huge. I do not disregard it. I did not include it because it would make it too obvious that I was comparing Bronson Arroyo and Tim Lincecum. Marketability... I get what you're saying but that's no way to build a winning baseball team. Honestly, I think the Giants could've kept Lincecum and all his marketing potential if they signed him for 2 year and 22MM.

Having won CY Young awards only means that you were, at one time, good. Lincecum was fucking awesome and I actually wish he still was. He was one of my favorite non-Dodgers to watch when he was at his peak. Guess what? That means nothing now. Look at Johan. Look at RA Dickey.

The fact remains, Arroyo had empirically superior stats than Lincecum over the past two seasons. He was also playing in an extremely hitter-friendly park (compared to Lincecum in one of the most pitcher-friendly parks) and his ERA was a full run lower than Timmy's. You can not disregard that despite a 6 year age gap.

I don't know how anyone could logically look at the 2012 & 2013 numbers for those two pitchers and rationally think that one deserves 2 years 35MM, and the other deserves only 1 year for 10MM. Arroyo is old, and he's not that good.