2014 Rosterbation

[msgkings322]

I'm not trolling you. I asked you a straight up question and never got a straight up answer. All you do is respond like I'm coming at you with personal attacks when in reality I've only posted stats. First, not enough to your liking so I got more. Those still weren't good enough but you have the names of player a and b so you can do your own homework.

I don't know why you can't admit that 2 years for 17 and 18 million is an overpay. It's not like it was something you did wrong - sometimes your own team makes mistakes, bro. I get mad at my own team all the team. Look at Brandon League's joke of a contract. That was a mistake instantly. Ethiers' as well (though I didn't realize it at the time). I'm pretty sure the Dodger fans on this board get more annoying with my critical eye than you do.

For some reason you think I'm just here to start shit. In reality, I'm just talking baseball. Since I'm a Dodger fan, maybe you think it's my MO to come in and be a shithead, but I'm not. Granted, I'm being critical of Lincecum's deal (because it is an overpay), but come on, that's not too hard to see.

You do realize that it's possible for opposing fans to talk sports without personal attacks, right (despite the countless attacks you've made at me)?

But Villain, he DID post a very detailed analysis of the Lincecum deal, and referenced Arroyo too, and you are apparently willfully ignoring it. Your question got answered. You seem to be trying to stir up shit. Post #108 in this very thread.

This deal, factoring in marketing, and treating homegrown beloved stars well, and Tim's clear improvement in the second half of last year, and the short nature of the deal, is not much of an overpay if at all. A 'proper pay' might have been 2/30, with the QO at 14+. So they 'overpaid' by 2 mil a year at MOST, and if he has a couple of 3 WAR years it will be a very fair deal,especially considering the intangibles wherein he's worth more to us than any other team. If they don't cry poor on filling in other slots it's even better.

There, you have your answer. Whether you accept it or not means nothing to us. It's a good deal from the perspective of informed fans.

 

[Mays-Fan]

But Villain, he DID post a very detailed analysis of the Lincecum deal, and referenced Arroyo too, and you are apparently willfully ignoring it. Your question got answered. You seem to be trying to stir up shit. Post #108 in this very thread.

This deal, factoring in marketing, and treating homegrown beloved stars well, and Tim's clear improvement in the second half of last year, and the short nature of the deal, is not much of an overpay if at all. A 'proper pay' might have been 2/30, with the QO at 14+. So they 'overpaid' by 2 mil a year at MOST, and if he has a couple of 3 WAR years it will be a very fair deal,especially considering the intangibles wherein he's worth more to us than any other team. If they don't cry poor on filling in other slots it's even better.

There, you have your answer. Whether you accept it or not means nothing to us. It's a good deal from the perspective of informed fans.

All well said.

In short, he is worth more to us than he is to almost anyone else. The only other team in that category is Seattle, his hometown. It goes beyond stats here.

Not knocking the Dodgers here, but right now they don't have anyone like that, so perhaps they don't understand. Timmy pitched the biggest game in SF history in Game 5 of the 2010 WS and brought the Championship home to SF for the first time ever (SF, not the NY Giants). Over 50 years of frustration - gone forever. The impact of that cannot be overstated. He could become the worst pitcher in baseball over the next two years and he will always be a hero to Giants fans.

The Giants without Timmy would be like the Dead without Garcia, the Beatles without John Lennon.

 

[Villain]

But Villain, he DID post a very detailed analysis of the Lincecum deal, and referenced Arroyo too, and you are apparently willfully ignoring it. Your question got answered. You seem to be trying to stir up shit. Post #108 in this very thread.

I must not have been paying close enough attention. I did not read that post carefully enough. Thank you for directing me to it.

Sorry for pursuing the subject for so long. I missed your previous answer, tzill, and I was under the impression that you were ducking the point through your name-calling and "give-me-more-stats"-ing. Thank you for your response.

This deal, factoring in marketing, and treating homegrown beloved stars well, and Tim's clear improvement in the second half of last year, and the short nature of the deal, is not much of an overpay if at all. A 'proper pay' might have been 2/30, with the QO at 14+. So they 'overpaid' by 2 mil a year at MOST, and if he has a couple of 3 WAR years it will be a very fair deal,especially considering the intangibles wherein he's worth more to us than any other team. If they don't cry poor on filling in other slots it's even better.

I get the whole, "it's okay to give him more because we love him" thing, but I just really think that's a recipe for disaster *coughandreethiercough* but, at 2 years it's not really the end of the world. Also, I guess it should be fair to say that the Giants aren't poor (though sometimes that impression is given) so it's not like they're strapped to a KC or Tampa Bay budget restriction.

Honestly, I think Lincecum could've been had for 2 years and 25 million (which is LESS than 2 qualifying offers), or maybe at a compromise revolving around incentives and team/player options for about the same (or more, depending on how it's laid out).

What kills me about the deal is that it gives guys like Ricky Nolasco, Ubaldo Jimenez, and even Bronson friggin Arroyo the leverage to ask for deals that they have no business sniffing.

There, you have your answer. Whether you accept it or not means nothing to us.[/QUOTE[

Of course I accept it, thank you.

It's a good deal from the perspective of informed fans.

That's a little smarmy and pretentious, lol. If I still think it's a bad deal, does that make me uninformed?

 

[tzill]

I must not have been paying close enough attention. I did not read that post carefully enough. Thank you for directing me to it.

Sorry for pursuing the subject for so long. I missed your previous answer, tzill, and I was under the impression that you were ducking the point through your name-calling and "give-me-more-stats"-ing. Thank you for your response.



I get the whole, "it's okay to give him more because we love him" thing, but I just really think that's a recipe for disaster *coughandreethiercough* but, at 2 years it's not really the end of the world. Also, I guess it should be fair to say that the Giants aren't poor (though sometimes that impression is given) so it's not like they're strapped to a KC or Tampa Bay budget restriction.

Honestly, I think Lincecum could've been had for 2 years and 25 million (which is LESS than 2 qualifying offers), or maybe at a compromise revolving around incentives and team/player options for about the same (or more, depending on how it's laid out).

What kills me about the deal is that it gives guys like Ricky Nolasco, Ubaldo Jimenez, and even Bronson friggin Arroyo the leverage to ask for deals that they have no business sniffing.

There, you have your answer. Whether you accept it or not means nothing to us.[/QUOTE[

Of course I accept it, thank you.



That's a little smarmy and pretentious, lol. If I still think it's a bad deal, does that make me uninformed?

Pretty much. We offered you a good deal of fine-grained analysis as to the FO's thinking regarding the money they gave Tim. You can still "think it's a bad deal," but the stats you've cited and analysis you've given is too simplistic to fit the situation.

Nolasco will get 3/36, Ubaldo will get 3/39, and Arroyo will get 2/24. Timmy will get more than all three, both in terms of total dollars and per annum. Timmy is the only one of the bunch who projects to 3.0 WAR and that's why he's paid more. I would note that on the open market he'd get a bit less since any team acquiring him would have to give up a draft pick.

If you can't see why we'd think that a doyerfan who comes in here for the first time and 1) bemoans the Lincecum signing and then 2) when challenged on it goes to the "this guy says past awards are what's important" false summary of argument, and THEN 3) fails to read the reasoned response well -- is a troll, then I don't know what to do for you. If you truly want to "talk baseball," then you may want to rethink your strategy of engagement.

Because the way you've conducted yourself is pretty trollish.

 

[msgkings322]

I must not have been paying close enough attention. I did not read that post carefully enough. Thank you for directing me to it.

Sorry for pursuing the subject for so long. I missed your previous answer, tzill, and I was under the impression that you were ducking the point through your name-calling and "give-me-more-stats"-ing. Thank you for your response.



I get the whole, "it's okay to give him more because we love him" thing, but I just really think that's a recipe for disaster *coughandreethiercough* but, at 2 years it's not really the end of the world. Also, I guess it should be fair to say that the Giants aren't poor (though sometimes that impression is given) so it's not like they're strapped to a KC or Tampa Bay budget restriction.

Honestly, I think Lincecum could've been had for 2 years and 25 million (which is LESS than 2 qualifying offers), or maybe at a compromise revolving around incentives and team/player options for about the same (or more, depending on how it's laid out).

Nope. A team or two like Seattle woulda bid more. It's not a recipe for disaster to overpay a marketing goldmine 2 mil/yr

What kills me about the deal is that it gives guys like Ricky Nolasco, Ubaldo Jimenez, and even Bronson friggin Arroyo the leverage to ask for deals that they have no business sniffing.

There, you have your answer. Whether you accept it or not means nothing to us.[/QUOTE[

Of course I accept it, thank you.



That's a little smarmy and pretentious, lol. If I still think it's a bad deal, does that make me uninformed?

Just about the only accurate thing you've said here.

 

[tzill]

I must not have been paying close enough attention. I did not read that post carefully enough. Thank you for directing me to it.

Sorry for pursuing the subject for so long. I missed your previous answer, tzill, and I was under the impression that you were ducking the point through your name-calling and "give-me-more-stats"-ing. Thank you for your response.



I get the whole, "it's okay to give him more because we love him" thing, but I just really think that's a recipe for disaster *coughandreethiercough* but, at 2 years it's not really the end of the world. Also, I guess it should be fair to say that the Giants aren't poor (though sometimes that impression is given) so it's not like they're strapped to a KC or Tampa Bay budget restriction.

Honestly, I think Lincecum could've been had for 2 years and 25 million (which is LESS than 2 qualifying offers), or maybe at a compromise revolving around incentives and team/player options for about the same (or more, depending on how it's laid out).

Nope. A team or two like Seattle woulda bid more. It's not a recipe for disaster to overpay a marketing goldmine 2 mil/yr

What kills me about the deal is that it gives guys like Ricky Nolasco, Ubaldo Jimenez, and even Bronson friggin Arroyo the leverage to ask for deals that they have no business sniffing.



Just about the only accurate thing you've said here.

Heck, Agent Ned would've bid more.

 

[Villain]

Nolasco will get 3/36, Ubaldo will get 3/39, and Arroyo will get 2/24. Timmy will get more than all three, both in terms of total dollars and per annum. Timmy is the only one of the bunch who projects to 3.0 WAR and that's why he's paid more. I would note that on the open market he'd get a bit less since any team acquiring him would have to give up a draft pick.

I was wondering how you could find such specific salaries for each pitcher, but Attempting A Model For Projecting Free Agent Starting Pitcher Salaries: MLB Rumors - MLBTradeRumors.com made it obvious.

Anyways, what I'm interested in is this bit:

Timmy is the only one of the bunch who projects to 3.0 WAR and that's why he's paid more.

Where did that projection come from? He hasn't pitched over 1.6 WAR in two years.

Heck, Agent Ned would've bid more.

Well yeah, he's an idiot.

 

[MarcoPolo]

Heck, Agent Ned would've bid more.

Well, he was trained by the best! (and by 'best', I mean 'idiot').

 

[MarcoPolo]

Anyways, what I'm interested in is this bit:


Where did that projection come from? He hasn't pitched over 1.6 WAR in two years.

It wouldn't surprise me if the answer is "because of his most recent 20 starts".

 

[tzill]

I was wondering how you could find such specific salaries for each pitcher, but Attempting A Model For Projecting Free Agent Starting Pitcher Salaries: MLB Rumors - MLBTradeRumors.com made it obvious.

Anyways, what I'm interested in is this bit:



Where did that projection come from? He hasn't pitched over 1.6 WAR in two years.

How many times do we have to go around about this: Timmy 2.0 isn't relevant to the discussion. He's not the pitcher he was for the first 40 starts of 2012-13. He IS the pitcher of his last 20 starts. If you project out his last 20 starts over a full season, you get 3.0 WAR. That's worth about $18MM on the market. That, plus the fact that he's 29, plus the fact he was willing to go 2 years, plus the fact that he's part of the cultural fabric of SF made it pretty much a no brainer.


Well yeah, he's an idiot.

You're demonstrating a fidelity to that description.

 

[tzill]

It wouldn't surprise me if the answer is "because of his most recent 20 starts".

Yup, that wouldn't surprise you because you actually followed the conversation. Doyerfan...not so much.

 

[Villain]

Well, he was trained by the best! (and by 'best', I mean 'idiot').

See? We can agree on things!

 

[Mays-Fan]

Possible scrap heap pickup?:

Lance Berkman: Lance Berkman Statistics and History - Baseball-Reference.com

Had a .959 OPS as recently as 2011, and even last year had a .780 OPS as a RHH.

Switch hitter, can play 1B and LF. Might be a viable platoon guy with Blanco if he still wants to play.

Question is can we sign him cheaply enough. He'll be 38 at the start of 2014.

 

[SF11704]

Possible scrap heap pickup?:

Lance Berkman: Lance Berkman Statistics and History - Baseball-Reference.com

Had a .959 OPS as recently as 2011, and even last year had a .780 OPS as a RHH.

Switch hitter, can play 1B and LF. Might be a viable platoon guy with Blanco if he still wants to play.

Question is can we sign him cheaply enough. He'll be 38 at the start of 2014.

Interesting gamble ... would depend on what he wants .... almost reminds of of the PTMFB pick-up. A little older but still interesting. I'd much rather have a fulltime LF starter than this platoon thing .... but I think money will dictate what path we take

 

[calsnowskier]

I thought he fully retired, didn't he?

 

[Mays-Fan]

I thought he fully retired, didn't he?

So did Brett Favre.

 

[Mays-Fan]

Interesting gamble ... would depend on what he wants .... almost reminds of of the PTMFB pick-up. A little older but still interesting. I'd much rather have a fulltime LF starter than this platoon thing .... but I think money will dictate what path we take

Agreed regarding the platoon, but it works much better if we can get someone more productive than Andres Torres.

 

[ColinCoby]

Any chance?

Free Agent Profile: Marlon Byrd: MLB Rumors - MLBTradeRumors.com

I think it was Kuip who said that the Giants left field needs will be addressed through a trade. Any guesses who the Giants could be targeting?

 

[tzill]

Any chance?

Free Agent Profile: Marlon Byrd: MLB Rumors - MLBTradeRumors.com

I think it was Kuip who said that the Giants left field needs will be addressed through a trade. Any guesses who the Giants could be targeting?

If they go FA, I think they will look hard at Cruz, Byrd, and Morse.

 

[MarcoPolo]

Any chance?

Free Agent Profile: Marlon Byrd: MLB Rumors - MLBTradeRumors.com

I think it was Kuip who said that the Giants left field needs will be addressed through a trade. Any guesses who the Giants could be targeting?

I would like to underscore the first 2 sentences in the linked article : When the Mets took a minor league flier (lame pun intended) on Marlon Byrd, the transaction was met with little enthusiasm. Such is the case with minor league deals for veterans.

Taking "a minor league flier" on vets is Sabean's MO. He does it every year, generally multiple times during the off-season and ST. It often comes to absolutely nothing (and the Giants lose virtually nothing). But there have been numerous failures and successes in the last 7 years or so, and I would expect Sabes to try that strategy again this year. Not necessarily as the *main* strategy, simply as insurance.