2016 Rosterbation

[calsnowskier]

Great statistical analysis! The best I could've done is "the jet stream in Coors field carries balls out in RF, while in AT&T the marine layer knocks balls down in RF".

Dont feel bad.

That is still more scientific than I would have offered up...

 

[MarcoPolo]

Blackmon is clearly a product of Coors Field. His career home splits are .334/.386/.501. On the road, he looks like a 4-A player - .241/.283/.370.
However, as I've mentioned before, CarGo's home/road split differentials are fairly large too (just not as large as Blackmon's). For 2015, for instance, CarGo hit .299/.355/.617 at home and .243/.294/.464 on the road. In 2014, his home was .336/.376/.569 while road was .160/.224/.319. His last good road year was 2013 when he hit at home at .273/.354/.576 while the road was actually .332/.381/.606. CarGo's career home is .324/.382/.604 while his career road is .255/.310/.441. That includes his first year playing in Oakland. His road numbers are trending badly, suggesting a horrible surprise for any team that may end up trading for him.

In 423 PAs at AT&T, he {CarGo} has hit .243 AVG, 16 HRs, OPS of .764. That is NOT the performance you want to get from a $20M man. Blanco can give us that (well, except the 16 HRs) for a fraction of the price.

 

[MarcoPolo]

{Oops, double post}

 

[Stokes1931]

It's like deva vu all over again!

 

[Stokes1931]

It's like deva vu all over again!

 

[SFGRTB]

I'll just put this here. Scott Kazmir has signed with LA.

The projected starting 5 is Kershaw, Kazmir, Ryu, Anderson, and Wood. All lefties.

Cespedes .736 OPS versus left-handers. Hmm...

Gordon .817 OPS versus left-handers...

Upton .558 OPS versus left-handers...

Fowler .865 OPS versus left-handers...

Byrd .820 OPS versus left-handers...

Span .542 OPS versus left-handers...

Jackson .770 OPS versus left-handers...

Fowler had the 13th highest OPS vs. lefties in 2015. Gordon the 19th highest. Byrd the 22nd highest. Jackson the 26th highest.

 

[calsnowskier]

Of the available FA, and all that would likely come with signing them ($$ flexability, years, clubhouse, etc), I think I rate them as follows...

Byrd
Cespedes
Fowler
Gordon
Jackson


Not interested in Span or Upton

 

[Mays-Fan]

Giants interested in Ian Desmond as a super-utility player?

NL East Notes: Dews, Nationals,

Former Nationals shortstop Ian Desmond has long been rumored to be dabbling in the idea of signing as a Zobrist-esque super-utility player, and ESPN.com’s Buster Olney suggests the Giants could be a fit for him in such a role. Desmond could be the regular left fielder, even see time in center, and function as a reserve or injury replacement in the infield, Olney reasons.
​

$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$

Seems like it would be a huge gamble. Desmond has been almost exclusively a shortstop throughout his career. OPS has declined significantly for 3 straight years, from.845 to .674. Made $11mm in his last arb year, now a FA.

Downside: Declining bat. Seemingly expensive - will want to get paid no doubt. Has really played only shortstop.

Upside: Durable, has power, good size, very good glove.

Verdict (IMHO): Pass. Was a very good player, but rapid decline is worrisome. Will likely want more than he's really worth. Not much upside. Maybe if we needed a SS, but obviously we don't.

But there may be some hidden reason why the FO may want him.

 

[Mays-Fan]

Of the available FA, and all that would likely come with signing them ($$ flexability, years, clubhouse, etc), I think I rate them as follows...

Byrd
Cespedes
Fowler
Gordon
Jackson


Not interested in Span or Upton

Agreed re Span and Upton, and I might include Jackson with them.

I'm going with:

Gordon (4 yrs not 5)
Byrd
Cespedes
Fowler a distant 4th.

 

[calsnowskier]

I just think that Gordon world cost too much $$, a pick, multiple years and he has shown a trend of decline. Byrd can almost certainly be had for 1 year, Cespedes does not cost a pick, and does have the decline trend and Fowler plays CF.

 

[Stokes1931]

I'll just put this here. Scott Kazmir has signed with LA.

The projected starting 5 is Kershaw, Kazmir, Ryu, Anderson, and Wood. All lefties.

Cespedes .736 OPS versus left-handers. Hmm...

Gordon .817 OPS versus left-handers...

Upton .558 OPS versus left-handers...

Fowler .865 OPS versus left-handers...

Byrd .820 OPS versus left-handers...

Span .542 OPS versus left-handers...

Jackson .770 OPS versus left-handers...

Fowler had the 13th highest OPS vs. lefties in 2015. Gordon the 19th highest. Byrd the 22nd highest. Jackson the 26th highest.

Saw this today. You beat me to it. An all southpaw lineup? Interesting.

The Dodgers' five left-handed starters and the Giants' search for an outfielder

 

[Stokes1931]

Giants interested in Ian Desmond as a super-utility player?

NL East Notes: Dews, Nationals,

Former Nationals shortstop Ian Desmond has long been rumored to be dabbling in the idea of signing as a Zobrist-esque super-utility player, and ESPN.com’s Buster Olney suggests the Giants could be a fit for him in such a role. Desmond could be the regular left fielder, even see time in center, and function as a reserve or injury replacement in the infield, Olney reasons.
​

$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$

Seems like it would be a huge gamble. Desmond has been almost exclusively a shortstop throughout his career. OPS has declined significantly for 3 straight years, from.845 to .674. Made $11mm in his last arb year, now a FA.

Downside: Declining bat. Seemingly expensive - will want to get paid no doubt. Has really played only shortstop.

Upside: Durable, has power, good size, very good glove.

Verdict (IMHO): Pass. Was a very good player, but rapid decline is worrisome. Will likely want more than he's really worth. Not much upside. Maybe if we needed a SS, but obviously we don't.

But there may be some hidden reason why the FO may want him.

Downside outweighs upside. Too expensive. He does hit well at AT&T, and he does hit lefties reasonably well. Not sure he is an OF, though, and we have quite enough IF's at the moment.

 

[SFGRTB]

Of the available FA, and all that would likely come with signing them ($$ flexability, years, clubhouse, etc), I think I rate them as follows...

Byrd
Cespedes
Fowler
Gordon
Jackson


Not interested in Span or Upton

Yeah I agree, except I don't have Gordon or Jackson on the list.

I'm not sure what the trade market is like, but the Giants are always willing to add at the deadline. That's why I'd be totally fine with Byrd.

 

[SFGRTB]

Alright the dodgers signed a righty. Kenda Meada from Japan. With Ryu's health uncertain, Meada will slot in to the rotation day one. And if/when Ryu is healthy, I'll bet Wood heads to the Pen.

So the Giants, D-Backs and dodgers are more or less set. Here's how they stack

Bum/Cueto/Samardjiza/Peavy/Cain

Greinke/Miller/Cobin/De La Rosa/Ray

Kershaw/Kazmir/Meada/Anderson/Wood(Ryu)

All are pretty solid, but all have some question marks on the back end. The Giants go pretty deep in the rotation with Heston, Blackburn and Mejia ready to step in. It really hinges on if Cain can be reliable again. The D-Backs have Bradley ready to step in, but little after that. The injury risk in the dodgers rotation is pretty high, and Meada is an unknown. There have been questions whether he can consistently go deep into games throughout the season given his slight frame. They do have a number of arms to fill into the rotation though, and they have the best pitcher on the planet.

It's going to be a heck of an arms race in the NL West this year. Except for the Rockies. Their rotation looks as bad as ever.

 

[MarcoPolo]

What about them mini-Pads way down south?

 

[Mays-Fan]

Question for this august compendium:

All financial considerations aside, if we could add just one outfielder of the ones available for opening day 2016, and looking just at 2016, who would it be?

 

[LHG]

Here comes LHG to get on his "Blanco is sufficient" rant. Looking at the 26 remaining free agent outfielders, only 4 of them had a higher OPS+ (OPS adjusted for ballpark) than Blanco's 117. Of those 4, two of them (Gordon - 120 and Upton - 121) were not much higher. Cespedes was at 139 and Ryan Raburn(!) was at 149. Span was 114 and Parra was 110. Looking at 3 year OPS, 11 free agents have had a better three year run than Blanco (with a .721 OPS). However, 4 of them (Byrd, Pearce, Stubbs and Victorino) have been in decline. Another, Parra, is only .007 points ahead of Blanco. That leaves 6 with a 3 year OPS of at least .010 higher. Two of them, however, have posted those numbers in offensively friendly ballparks (Fowler and Span). I really think only 3 free agent outfielders would be an improvement but all three would cost a draft pick, bring significant questions and would severely constrain the front office's ability to make a mid season trade. Rant over.

If the Giants were to go after a backup for the outfield I'd much rather have Ryan Raburn over Marlon Byrd. Raburn posted a .301/.393/.543 in part time play in 2015. His 3 year is a bit more modest (.257/.335/.465) but he is 4 years younger than Byrd, still has a better three year slash than Byrd's (.275/.329/.430) and his OPS+ was 48 points better than Byrd's (149 vs. 101). He has experience in all three outfield spots as well as 1st, 2nd and 3rd (although he's been used exclusively in the outfield the past two years). His defensive WAR (-1.0) was worse than Byrd's (-0.2) in 2015. The big alarm on Raburn is that his even years have been awful recently (2012 and 2014).

 

[SFGRTB]

 

[SFGRTB]

I'm hearing the Giants may be in on Marcell Ozuna. Adalberto Mejia would be headed to Miami

 

[calsnowskier]

I'm hearing the Giants may be in on Marcell Ozuna. Adalberto Mejia would be headed to Miami

One-for-one?

I support that trade!!!