2016 Rosterbation

[tzill]

My previous criticism of Gordon aside, word is that he declined KC's low-ball of roughly 4/50. No surprise there.

He had a groin injury last year on July 9, and he was out Jul/Aug. He came back OK, and even hit to an .836 OPS in the Series..

He was a 24+ WAR player 2011-2014. A lot of that was defense, with 4 GG's.

He turns 32 in Feb.

Is he worth 4/70 to us, or even 4/75? I could see a WAR value by year of 5-4-3-3. That's 15. More value in the early years of Teh Window. If he can stay healthy, I can be talked into this quite easily, and I'd rather have him than Cespedes. He'd be a lock to fit in, unlike YC.

IMO, and we're all pulling numbers out of air here, that's pretty optimistic. I wouldn't invest in a multiyear deal for an OF who's WAR is dependent on his legs who is a) on the wrong side of 30 and b) had a serious lower body injury last year.

I think it's Fowler or Parra on a one year deal and Mac is starting by August.

 

[Mays-Fan]

IMO, and we're all pulling numbers out of air here, that's pretty optimistic. I wouldn't invest in a multiyear deal for an OF who's WAR is dependent on his legs who is a) on the wrong side of 30 and b) had a serious lower body injury last year.

I think it's Fowler or Parra on a one year deal and Mac is starting by August.

My guess, but only a guess, is that we can't get either one on a one-year deal. And that's pretty optimistic regarding Mac. If we aren't going premium, I'd rather go with Byrd.

My gut tells me they intend to go premium, or else we would have signed either Byrd or Aoki when the season ended. But that's only my guess.

 

[tzill]

My guess, but only a guess, is that we can't get either one on a one-year deal. And that's pretty optimistic regarding Mac. If we aren't going premium, I'd rather go with Byrd.

My gut tells me they intend to go premium, or else we would have signed either Byrd or Aoki when the season ended. But that's only my guess.

Yeah, one year for Parra is probably optimistic. Maybe not for Fowler. The OF market is very slow to develop, in part because there are so many FAs and very few of the top 20 teams looking for help there. Hayward has signed, Upton, Gordon and Cespedes are the premium players. There just aren't many more full time openings left, which is why I think we can get someone like Fowler on a one year deal.

Here's a link to Grant's article on the glut: The glut of free agent outfielders could still help the Giants

"No, I count two teams that I expect to spend (Tigers, Royals) and one that just might (White Sox), with a whole bunch of mystery teams lying in the weeds, like the Giants. And you're suddenly understanding why Colby Rasmus took the qualifying offer from the Astros."

I guess we'll see.

 

[Mays-Fan]

Fowler's defensive numbers scare me. But I guess they aren't much worse than Pence's.

Gordon's injury doesn't bother me. It was a muscle pull, not ligament damage. He played quite well in the playoffs. A four year deal for him means he would be 35 at the end. He wouldn't be that much more expensive than Fowler or Parra on an annual basis. IMHO.

I like the idea of having the best defense we can behind our pitchers. Bad defense has a way of killing momentum and introducing fear and doubt. Good defense does the opposite.

Good article, btw. I like the line about Rasmus. I wish we got him.

 

[MarcoPolo]

If he is looking to rebuild value, no way he signs with the Giants. He would go to a team with an offensive park.

AT&T isn't so bad for righties (look at Kent's HR #s at AT&T vs. the Stick) - it does kill all lefties not named Bonds, however.

 

[tzill]

Fowler's defensive numbers scare me. But I guess they aren't much worse than Pence's.

Gordon's injury doesn't bother me. It was a muscle pull, not ligament damage. He played quite well in the playoffs. A four year deal for him means he would be 35 at the end. He wouldn't be that much more expensive than Fowler or Parra on an annual basis. IMHO.

I like the idea of having the best defense we can behind our pitchers. Bad defense has a way of killing momentum and introducing fear and doubt. Good defense does the opposite.

Good article, btw. I like the line about Rasmus. I wish we got him.

Fair point on Fowlers D; however, at 29 with so much of his value tied to his speed I'd be ok with a one year deal. Regarding Gordon -- the muscle pull is EXACTLY the type of injury aging players tend to get (see Pagan, Angel). It's not like we would expect him to get hurt less as he ages. His annual cost isn't as important to me as the length of the deal he will get vs. Fowler or Parra -- I don't want to be tied to another aging OF who relies on his legs for most of his value. We've (Oxy) been there, done (Oxy) that.

If there were a good defensive OF that we could pick up for a 1-2 year contract that is a marked improvement over Blanco, I'd be all for getting him. I just don't see that FA out there. Thus, we are left with second or third options. Fowler would be acceptable on a one year deal, given the paucity of good alternatives.

Then again, we could just sign Upton or Cespdes and be done with it I suppose....

 

[Mays-Fan]

We're all frustrated with the Pagan injury situation, most of all Pagan, I'm sure. His last injury though was a back injury, a bulging disc. And he had a strong September in 2015, With a .790 OPS IIRC.

My point is, I'm not sure it's fair to use Pagan as a small sample size to generalize to the Gordon situation. Gordon had no real injury history prior to 2015 - his 4 prior years he played 150+ games in each. Pagan had only played 150+ games once in his career prior to joining the Giants, and had something of a history of injuries prior to his signing with us.

I will concede there may be small correlation to age/injury in the early 30's for a ballplayer, but I'm not convinced it needs to be the deciding factor as to whether to sign Gordon or not. There is risk there, to be sure. But the upside, IMHO, far outweighs the risk.

The market for OF's is rough. The elite ones mentioned (Cespedes, Gordon, Upton) all have warts. The few in the middle (Fowler, Parra, Span) will likely be expensive and ask for multi-year deals. The best may be to sign Byrd and wait for either a mid-year deal, or Pagan to maybe be relatively injury-free (risky), or maybe Mac or Parker to emerge (see JCP, Lollis, Bowker, et al), or maybe even Belt to make a transition to LF.

 

[Mays-Fan]

As long as we are exploring possibilities (and I have nothing better to do right now), one that has received brief attention here is the possibility of a trade for Carlos Gonzalez aka CarGo.

Objection: He's a lefty who would die in AT&T. But would he? Here's his home run chart fpr 2015, with an AT&T Park overlay:



Pull hitter, yes, but there's a pretty fair cushion for most of his jacks. In fairness, I don't know if the height of the wall comes into play here or not.

Objection: He plays in Coors so his numbers are inflated. Are they? In the last three years, he has hit 36 HR's on the road, and only 24 at home. His OPS in that time - home, .953. Road, .780. Yeah, some disparity, but still, .780 on the road is pretty solid.

Objection: Trade price too high, salary too high. Probably the most valid objections. It would depend if Colorado was looking to rebuild and maybe dump his salary. But he is "only" on the hook for 2 more years at $17mm and $20mm. No option years per BBRef. We could indeed afford him if the Rox were looking to dump his salary. Maybe they would take a couple mid-level prospects to do so. He's only 30, so a two-year commitment isn't bad. And he does have 3 GG's, for what that is worth.

 

[MarcoPolo]

$17M in 2016, $20M in 2017 is a lot of cash. True, it's just for 2 seasons. If the Rox would be willig to pay some of the contract, one could think "eh, maybe". But there are problems w/ Carlos (most of which have been pointed out, but I place a little different emphasis on them):

- He hasn't played CF since 2011. Is that because the Rockies have a decent-hitting, superb young CF in Charlie Blackmon, or is it because he just can't man CF anymore because he's run down? (I'm asking because I don't know.)

- You look at his power numbers and thing "pretty good!!" - then you remember that half his games are played in Mile High Stadium and realize they aren't that stellar. His home/away splits are pretty telling : OPS of .986 home / .752 away (lifetime). Ouch.

- He's a LHB and only 1 LHB has routinely hit well in AT&T - most others just don't hit that many HRs (look at the 2007 ASG's HR derby). In 423 PAs at AT&T, he has hit .243 AVG, 16 HRs, OPS of .764. That is NOT the performance you want to get from a $20M man. Blanco can give us that (well, except the 16 HRs) for a fraction of the price.

I say no to CarGo - it's not the total price per se - it's the price/performance at AT&T that is just a joke. I think that CarGo would have a problem ending the next two seasons with an OPS north of 800 if he played for the Giants. And remember that the price would also include the loss of prospects, ... so NO !!

Why not consider Charlie Blackmon? He's younger, and yes, also a LHB, but his 'plus' isn't power, it's speed (43 SBs in '15). He could hold the CF down thru 2018, and wouldn't block anybody (if he had a problem, or a prospect broke out, he could just be released).

 

[Mays-Fan]

Why not consider Charlie Blackmon? He's younger, and yes, also a LHB, but his 'plus' isn't power, it's speed (43 SBs in '15). He could hold the CF down thru 2018, and wouldn't block anybody (if he had a problem, or a prospect broke out, he could just be released).

The problem is: What incentive does Colorado have to trade Blackmon? He's a very good player who is under their control for three more years. Sure, I'd love it if we had him, but I'm guessing it would cost more in trade value than CarGo, even if the Rox were considering it.

 

[dredinis21]

The problem is: What incentive does Colorado have to trade Blackmon? He's a very good player who is under their control for three more years. Sure, I'd love it if we had him, but I'm guessing it would cost more in trade value than CarGo, even if the Rox were considering it.

After having traded Tulo, CarGo is the face of their franchise. I have a hard time believing that CarGo would cost less then Blackmon even despite the contract and age. But, eh, what the F do I know?

 

[Mays-Fan]

After having traded Tulo, CarGo is the face of their franchise. I have a hard time believing that CarGo would cost less then Blackmon even despite the contract and age. But, eh, what the F do I know?

Are you considering contract cost, and not just on-the-field value? CarGo is due to make $37mm in the next two years. Blackmon is just entering his first year of arbitration.

 

[tzill]

Are you considering contract cost, and not just on-the-field value? CarGo is due to make $37mm in the next two years. Blackmon is just entering his first year of arbitration.

Blackmon has a career OBP of .336 while playing half his games in Coors, what would he do at AT&T? And how sure can we be that he would be even average in center? He's under team control through the 2018 season, so the Rockies don't have to trade him, either. They can pretend they're trading a poor man's Andrew McCutchen instead of someone with Gregor Blanco's skill set, give or take, and see if anyone kicks down the door with a prospect cannon. Considering that he's probably more of a nice player to have rather than a true All-Star, that would be a rough way for the Giants to use their limited trade options.

 

[dredinis21]

Are you considering contract cost, and not just on-the-field value? CarGo is due to make $37mm in the next two years. Blackmon is just entering his first year of arbitration.

Contract cost? Yes. Production? Also, yes. CarGo at 17 mil and 20 mil with extensive history of production vs. Blackmon at minimum (too lazy to look up annual salary) with far less history of production, let alone production anywhere near comparable to CarGo. I'd take CarGo for two seasons every day of the week and twice on Sundays. You can't look at value without production. As Tzill stated already, .336 OBP while playing at Coors isn't stellar for someone whose speed is something we would want to take advantage of. Also, Blackmon is 29 years old, so we aren't exactly getting a young player. Instead, we are getting a player whose single greatest attribute will only get worse as he gets older.

 

[LHG]

Contract cost? Yes. Production? Also, yes. CarGo at 17 mil and 20 mil with extensive history of production vs. Blackmon at minimum (too lazy to look up annual salary) with far less history of production, let alone production anywhere near comparable to CarGo. I'd take CarGo for two seasons every day of the week and twice on Sundays. You can't look at value without production. As Tzill stated already, .336 OBP while playing at Coors isn't stellar for someone whose speed is something we would want to take advantage of. Also, Blackmon is 29 years old, so we aren't exactly getting a young player. Instead, we are getting a player whose single greatest attribute will only get worse as he gets older.

Blackmon is clearly a product of Coors Field. His career home splits are .334/.386/.501. On the road, he looks like a 4-A player - .241/.283/.370.
However, as I've mentioned before, CarGo's home/road split differentials are fairly large too (just not as large as Blackmon's). For 2015, for instance, CarGo hit .299/.355/.617 at home and .243/.294/.464 on the road. In 2014, his home was .336/.376/.569 while road was .160/.224/.319. His last good road year was 2013 when he hit at home at .273/.354/.576 while the road was actually .332/.381/.606. CarGo's career home is .324/.382/.604 while his career road is .255/.310/.441. That includes his first year playing in Oakland. His road numbers are trending badly, suggesting a horrible surprise for any team that may end up trading for him.

 

[Hangman]

Just saw an article on Facebook that says that the Giants are still in play for Cespidas.

 

[calsnowskier]

Just saw an article on Facebook that says that the Giants are still in play for Cespidas.

MLBTR says that the favorites right now are the O's and ChiSox. But the Giants, Angels and Rangers are still in the mix.

 

[Stokes1931]

As long as we are exploring possibilities (and I have nothing better to do right now), one that has received brief attention here is the possibility of a trade for Carlos Gonzalez aka CarGo.

Objection: He's a lefty who would die in AT&T. But would he? Here's his home run chart fpr 2015, with an AT&T Park overlay:

View attachment 69935

Pull hitter, yes, but there's a pretty fair cushion for most of his jacks. In fairness, I don't know if the height of the wall comes into play here or not.

Objection: He plays in Coors so his numbers are inflated. Are they? In the last three years, he has hit 36 HR's on the road, and only 24 at home. His OPS in that time - home, .953. Road, .780. Yeah, some disparity, but still, .780 on the road is pretty solid.

Objection: Trade price too high, salary too high. Probably the most valid objections. It would depend if Colorado was looking to rebuild and maybe dump his salary. But he is "only" on the hook for 2 more years at $17mm and $20mm. No option years per BBRef. We could indeed afford him if the Rox were looking to dump his salary. Maybe they would take a couple mid-level prospects to do so. He's only 30, so a two-year commitment isn't bad. And he does have 3 GG's, for what that is worth.

I think the overlay is not an apples to apples comparison. Balls travel 7.5% further at Coors than "normal", while at Teh Phone Booth. balls travel on average 2.5% shorter than average. That's a 10% cumulative difference between the two parks. No doubt Cargo has the power to be a good HR hitter in SF (aside from whether signing him is worthwhile or even wise.) But this overlay, as I understand it, does not take "carry" and environmental factors like altitude into account. Nor does it take into account, as you pointed out, the height of the wall.



If the ballpark outline is moved back 10%, we can write off almost all the HR's to CF, and most of the HR's to right except those right down the line.

Using hitf/x and hittracker data, I have recently developed a numerical measure of the "carry" of a fly ball for each ball park. In a vacuum, all balls hit with the same initial velocity and launch angle will travel the same distance. In reality, the ball will travel more or less than that, depending on the influence of the aerodynamic effects of drag and the Magnus force, including any influence of wind. A measure of the "carry" is the ratio of the actual distance to the distance it would have traveled in a vacuum. In this plot , I have analyzed 819 home runs from the first 6 weeks of the 2009 season and determined the carry for each park. Actually shown is a "normalized carry", which is the actual carry divided by the average over all ball parks (so that the mean normalized carry is necessarily 1). The striking thing about the plot is that Coors, highlighted in green, is head and shoulders above all the other ball parks, with a carry about 7.5% larger than average. Roughly speaking this corresponds to an extra 30 ft on a home run relative to the average. On the opposite end of the spectrum, Progressive Field in Cleveland, highlighted in cyan, has a carry about 4% lower than the average. Finally, the new Yankee Stadium, highlighted in purple, has a carry about 2% below average. If home runs there were significantly aided by the wind, one might expect an above average carry. The fact that the carry is below average suggests that there is no evidence in the data analyzed for any significant effect of wind at the new Yankee Stadium. For a more detailed account of this analysis, see this link.

Baseball At High Altitude

So, OK, I am bored. When do pitchers and catchers report?

 

[filosofy29]

I think the overlay is not an apples to apples comparison. Balls travel 7.5% further at Coors than "normal", while at Teh Phone Booth. balls travel on average 2.5% shorter than average. That's a 10% cumulative difference between the two parks. No doubt Cargo has the power to be a good HR hitter in SF (aside from whether signing him is worthwhile or even wise.) But this overlay, as I understand it, does not take "carry" and environmental factors like altitude into account. Nor does it take into account, as you pointed out, the height of the wall.

View attachment 71151

If the ballpark outline is moved back 10%, we can write off almost all the HR's to CF, and most of the HR's to right except those right down the line.



Baseball At High Altitude

So, OK, I am bored. When do pitchers and catchers report?

Stokes just done dropped the mic!

 

[SFGRTB]

I think the overlay is not an apples to apples comparison. Balls travel 7.5% further at Coors than "normal", while at Teh Phone Booth. balls travel on average 2.5% shorter than average. That's a 10% cumulative difference between the two parks. No doubt Cargo has the power to be a good HR hitter in SF (aside from whether signing him is worthwhile or even wise.) But this overlay, as I understand it, does not take "carry" and environmental factors like altitude into account. Nor does it take into account, as you pointed out, the height of the wall.

View attachment 71151

If the ballpark outline is moved back 10%, we can write off almost all the HR's to CF, and most of the HR's to right except those right down the line.



Baseball At High Altitude

So, OK, I am bored. When do pitchers and catchers report?

Great statistical analysis! The best I could've done is "the jet stream in Coors field carries balls out in RF, while in AT&T the marine layer knocks balls down in RF".