2016 Rosterbation

[calsnowskier]

i know, I know. It isn't even the ASB yet and we are in the thick of the hunt for the post season fir 2015. So why am I starting the 2016 Rosterbation thread already?

Well, I brought up the topic in that abortion of a game this morning, and it just got my juices going. I love analyzing the evolution of the roster, pretty much any time, for any season. So why not start the discussion, even if it isn't heated for a few more months?

Anyway, I identified these as our pending FAs with their 2015 salary (according to COTS)...

Lincecum - 18M
Hudson - 12M
Affeldt - 6M
Vogelsong - 4M
Arias - 1.45M
McGehee - 4.8M

And the Arb players (w/ my WAG for their Arb sal for '16)...

Belt (Arb3) - 3.6M (4.2)
Crawford (Arb2) - 3.175M (4.1)
Petit (Arb3) - 2.1M (2.9)
Ishikawa (Arb3) - 1.1M (1.5)
Maxwell (Arb3) - 1M (1.6)
Sanchez (Arb2) - 800K (1.2)
Machi (Arb1) - 527K (.9)
Kontos (Arb1) - 517K (.9)

And the options...

Aoki - 5.5/.7
Casilla - 5/1

Both have performance clauses and other benchmarks, but let's assume they both end up being full club options. I think both are pretty clearly going to have their options picked up.

I included sHits and Ishi since their $$ is still on the books. Obviously neither will back with MLB contracts. Also, I cannot stress enough that my 2016 $$ numbers are a 100% WAG. I did absolutely zero research into what would be expected. Please feel free to correct if you know, basically, how those numbers are derived.

I think all 5 (6 if you count sHits) FAs walk. Arias and Lincecum are really the only ones I would say have a better than 50% chance of even signing MLB contracts for 2016. Huddy has already said he will retire, and I expect Affeldt to hang them up as well, and move behind the scenes with the Giants (maybe broadcasting). Vogey I suspect will either get a low-level MLB contract or a ST invite somewhere, maybe even with the Giants. I would not be surprised if McGehee retires, gets a minor league deal, or heads back to Asia. I think all these possibilities are in play.

For the Arb-players, I think Ishi and Maxwell are the obvious non-tenders. Machi has a shot since his price tag would be so low. But dumpster dives are even cheaper, so maybe they let him walk since he is a dime-a-dozen pitcher. Kontos and Sanchez I would rate as about 85% that they get contracts. Belt, Craw and Petit are no-brainers.

Obviously, there will be a trade or two between now and the deadline, but assuming no trades, this would leave a roster looking something like...

Bum
Cain
Peavy
Heston
(Petit, Stratton, Beede, Blach, Blackburn, Mejia, Hanson)

1 Closer - Casilla/Strickland
2 LOOGY - Lopez/Osich
1 long reliever - Petit
3 Bully - Romo/Machi/Kontos/Casilla/Strickland/Law/Hall/Black/Broadway

Posey/Susac
Belt/Posey
Panik
Crawford
Duffy
Aoki
Pagan
Pence

1 BU catcher - Susac/Sanchez (one will almost certainly be traded)
2 Utils - Adrianza/Tomlinson/Free Agent
2 OFs - Blanco/Parker/Perez/Williamson/Cole/Lollis

 

[MarcoPolo]

Blanco is guaranteed $3.9M for 2016, so unless he is traded, you almost have to count him in as a lock.

 

[msgkings322]

Blanco is guaranteed $3.9M for 2016, so unless he is traded, you almost have to count him in as a lock.

Fine by me with the way he's playing this year.

 

[calsnowskier]

Blanco is guaranteed $3.9M for 2016, so unless he is traded, you almost have to count him in as a lock.

No question he is a lock. He is a low-end starting OF, elite #4. I have been saying that for years.

3.9M is a bargain for what he brings.

 

[tzill]

2016 locks:
SP - Cain, Peavy, Bumgarner, Heston
OF - Pence, Pagan, Blanco, Aoki (Team Option)
C - Posey, Susac
RP - Romo, Lopez, Casilla (Team Option), Petit (Arb), Kontos (Arb), Strickland
IF - Belt (Arb), Crawford (Arb), Panik, Duffy

That's 20 locks with five open spots: one SP, one OF, one RP, two IF

I'd assume both the SP and RP will come from the farm system (Beede, Osich)

That leaves one OF (Williamson?) and two IF (Tomlinson?, EA? Sanchez?)

What we know:
Casilla 5.5 option; Aoki 5.5 option

Arb estimates (based on 80/60/40 rule):
Belt 5.4, Crawford 4.7, Petit 3.0, Sanchez 1.2, Kontos 0.8

Club control:
Panik 0.6, Duffy 0.6, Heston 0.6, Strickland 0.6, Susac 0.6

This adds up to 145.4 M with four spots open (assuming Sanchez on roster). I'd assume a budget of about 185 M given the usual 5-10% increase year to year. So, we've got 40M to fill four spots. Assuming 1M for two rookie pitchers, that leaves 39M for an OF and a backup IF.

Also, expect the Gs to lock up Crawford, and maybe Belt to long term contracts. Duffy and Panik not out of the question either.

 

[calsnowskier]

They MIGHT lock up Panik to a deal that buys out one or two FA years, but I would not hold my breath on that just yet. I dont think Duffy is there yet. One more year before that is even considered. No way the Giants lock themselves into Belt. He plays 1B and should be performing MUCH better to get a lock-down deal. He is also playing Posey's future position.

I agree that they have room in the budget to do quite a bit. But outside of a stud OFer (Upton???), I am not sure where they spend the money. In order to free up a rotation spot, they will need to cut-bait on Peavy and/or Cain. Beede and Stratton are going to be kicking in the door next year, as could Blach, Blackburn or Mejia.

 

[SFGRTB]

I could see a Belt trade to the Huston Astros this offseason. They need someone at 1st. They have a deep farm system, especially with outfielders. Teoscar Hernandez, Brett Phillips to name a couple. I could see a Wil Myers type trade happening, young established player for an advanced prospect.

 

[Stokes1931]

I could see a Belt trade to the Huston Astros this offseason. They need someone at 1st. They have a deep farm system, especially with outfielders. Teoscar Hernandez, Brett Phillips to name a couple. I could see a Wil Myers type trade happening, young established player for an advanced prospect.

I love Belt's "D", but he has not blossomed as a slugger IMHO. He would absolutely crush that bandbox in Houston. We do need some solid OF's coming up. Oxy has no power left at all, and the speed is gone. Gotta find a capable CF, and let Guppy be the very goo 4th OF.

 

[TKellion]

Well here I go with my always outrageously extreme opinion.

I don't think we can wait until the off season to make major changes.This team is floundering and even with the return of Cain and Pence we have big holes in the OF and rotation.And this may be an unpopular opinion but The flailing giraffe needs to go.

Our core is solid,Posey,Susac,Panik,Crawford and Duffy are a solid infield with good defensive and offensive numbers.Pence is the spirit of the team.Blanco is having a renaissance at the plate since Aoki became his teammate.But what we are missing is a legit left handed power bat to hit between Posey and Pence.It isn't Belt.He teases you with it and you want to jump on his bandwagon.Then he goes in the tank and hits like a quadruple A hitter for a few weeks.He makes me sick.Pagan is injured more often than not and can't hit during the summer lol.Arias is Arias.Ehire Adrianza can easily replace Arias and hit just as badly for less money lol.Hell he may even hit better with semi steady at bats as the 1st utility guy off the bench.Thank god McGehee and Ishikawa( I love what he has done for us in the past but he is a mediocre hitter at best) are gone already.

Bumgarner,Cain and Heston are pretty solid as our top 3 starters but I have alot of anxiety when I watch Hudson,Vogelsong,Lincecum and Peavy walk to the mound.Why the hell did they resign Peavy for 2 years after the way he crapped the bed in last years WS.Vogey as well should not have been brought back.I know Peavy looked decent in his 1st start back but he has too many meltdowns for my taste.

Lincecum-Let him come off the DL and see if he can aproach what he did before June.
Hudson -Just leave him on the DL
Pagan-Trade him
Vogelsong,Peavy -ML ready arms you can swap with prospects if you trade for a Starter
Arias -DFA!
Belt -Trade him

And the prospects we can part with since 5 out of 8 position players are not going anywhere for awhile IE,Posey,Panik,Crawford,Duffy and Pence.Plus Bumgarner,Cain and Heston only leave 2 possible rotation spots for anyone in the minors.And you might as well say that Beede is going to take one of those spots sooner than later.

Arroyo(Unless you are thinking he replaces Crawford in 2 years?)
Crick
Blach
Mejia
Williamson
Stratton
Ryder Jones
Austin Slater
Oropesa
Hunter Cole
Duvall
Tomlinson
Blackburn

Now that is the majority of the ammo we have to trade for a Decent starting pitcher or 2,A solid Closer and a power left handed bat.Obviously Beede,Bickford,Fox and maybe even Mella are untouchable in the minors and Posey,Madbum,Cain,Panik and maybe Duffy on the big club.

So the question is who do we target in trades?

My 1st thought is to call the Reds.Offer them there pick of the farm minus the untouchables of course for Cueto and Chapman.

My second move is to call the Brewers.Lind and Parra would fill 2 voids for us.Lind could take Belts place as Posey's platoon partner at 1B and Parra would give us another decent LH hitter to platoon with Maxwell or Blanco when Aoki comes back.

Obviously this is all my fantasy but what the heck it sounds good and we do have ammo to work with.

Bum
Cain
Cueto-He might decide he likes pitching for a winner and resign
Heston
Peavy or( Beede, Blackburn, Mejia,Stratton)

1 Closer - Chapman
2 LOOGY - Lopez/Osich
1 long reliever - Petit
3 Bully - Romo/Kontos/Casilla/Strickland

Posey,Susac
Lind,Posey
Panik
Crawford
Duffy
Pence
Blanco,Parra
Maxwell,Parra(Until Aoki returns)

 

[calsnowskier]

Any discussion for Chapman or Cueto will start with Beede and only go in the direction of adding other large pieces (Arroyo would likely be required as well). No way the Reds will accept a leftover bag for arguably the TWO biggest pieces available at this year's deadline.

I am not against the idea of moving Belt. I am just not certain what we would be able to get for him mid-season. He is an off-season trade piece. And I am not certain he has nearly as much trade value as we may want.

 

[Mays-Fan]

We are only four games back in both the division and in the wildcard. We just got one of our top two everyday players back, .and arguably our number two and three starters back.

We may have to roll the dice and make some hard decisions in the bullpen. But we have options galore there.

I don't see the value in paying above market rates for top shelf help. The farm has been producing quality players lately. Several are on the verge of moving up. Now is not the time to panic and make a foolish deal.

 

[MarcoPolo]

Someone needs to buy a jumbo box of Depends, as the pants-shitting has started so soon ...

Considering all the injuries (and the offensive AND defensive black hole at 3B for 50 games), I think we have a good chance this year. And you know what? If we don't get another ring this year, so be it. I think it would be pretty silly to trade ANY of our top prospects at this point in time. *Personally* I think that it is more important to have a home-grown #2-3 pitcher in early-mid 2016 and a #3-4 pitcher for 2017 than it is to start making panic trades this summer. The core players are going to be here for several years, this isn't an all-or-nothing push like it was back in the 2000s.

 

[msgkings322]

Someone needs to buy a jumbo box of Depends, as the pants-shitting has started so soon ...

Considering all the injuries (and the offensive AND defensive black hole at 3B for 50 games), I think we have a good chance this year. And you know what? If we don't get another ring this year, so be it. I think it would be pretty silly to trade ANY of our top prospects at this point in time. *Personally* I think that it is more important to have a home-grown #2-3 pitcher in early-mid 2016 and a #3-4 pitcher for 2017 than it is to start making panic trades this summer. The core players are going to be here for several years, this isn't an all-or-nothing push like it was back in the 2000s.

This is word for word exactly how I feel about it. Well done.

 

[msgkings322]

We are only four games back in both the division and in the wildcard. We just got one of our top two everyday players back, .and arguably our number two and three starters back.

We may have to roll the dice and make some hard decisions in the bullpen. But we have options galore there.

I don't see the value in paying above market rates for top shelf help. The farm has been producing quality players lately. Several are on the verge of moving up. Now is not the time to panic and make a foolish deal.

This is also an excellent post

 

[tzill]

Someone needs to buy a jumbo box of Depends, as the pants-shitting has started so soon ...

Considering all the injuries (and the offensive AND defensive black hole at 3B for 50 games), I think we have a good chance this year. And you know what? If we don't get another ring this year, so be it. I think it would be pretty silly to trade ANY of our top prospects at this point in time. *Personally* I think that it is more important to have a home-grown #2-3 pitcher in early-mid 2016 and a #3-4 pitcher for 2017 than it is to start making panic trades this summer. The core players are going to be here for several years, this isn't an all-or-nothing push like it was back in the 2000s.

Whereas I'm usually a big fan of the pre-emptive pantshat, I don't think it's warranted this year. We're injured and we need to see what happens when we are relatively healthy. I suspect we'll pick up a reliever and with Seaweed back in two weeks, Oxy to the DL, and Cain and Hesto holding down the rotation, I'm fairly optimistic that we'll make a run for it.

Still, if we could swing a trade for Parra that doesn't give up blue chip prospects I'd be pleased.

 

[GiantsPackersChamps2011]

BURN THE WHOLE DAMN THING TO THE GROUND!
This team is done. Trade Bochy, Posey, Bumgarner, Cain, the seats, McCovey Cove and the glove in the outfield, trade it all.

Burn the park down, relocate the franchise to a new plot of land and start fresh. How many World Series have the Giants won at AT&T Park, NONE. All of them on the road AT&T Park is clearly cursed. So burn it.

We are cursed, the franchise is doomed. Destroy it all on battlebots.

 

[msgkings322]

BURN THE WHOLE DAMN THING TO THE GROUND!
This team is done. Trade Bochy, Posey, Bumgarner, Cain, the seats, McCovey Cove and the glove in the outfield, trade it all.

Burn the park down, relocate the franchise to a new plot of land and start fresh. How many World Series have the Giants won at AT&T Park, NONE. All of them on the road AT&T Park is clearly cursed. So burn it.

We are cursed, the franchise is doomed. Destroy it all on battlebots.

This is outstanding lulz.

 

[TKellion]

Just exactly what I expected to see from all of you lol.I love the part that says we have to trade our #1 pitching prospect for a half year rental.Almost like he was the Reds GM instead of just another forum poster

 

[calsnowskier]

Just exactly what I expected to see from all of you lol.I love the part that says we have to trade our #1 pitching prospect for a half year rental.Almost like he was the Reds GM instead of just another forum poster

I assume you are referring to my post? I did not say we SHOULD send Beede to the Reds, I said that is what it would cost.

So you actually think a collection of our scraps from the fridge will get Cueto and Chapman? Yeah, OK.

 

[MarcoPolo]

Regarding my comment :

*Personally* I think that it is more important to have a home-grown #2-3 pitcher in early-mid 2016 and a #3-4 pitcher for 2017 than it is to start making panic trades this summer. The core players are going to be here for several years, this isn't an all-or-nothing push like it was back in the 2000s.

Cain is signed thru 2017 (inclusive)
Pence is signed thru 2018
MadBum is signed thru (at least) 2017 - he has 2 team options thru 2019
Belt is captive thru 2017 (arbitration)
Craw is captive thru 2017
Kontos is captive thru 2019
Duffy is captive thru 2021
Heston is captive thru 2021
Strickland is captive thru 2021
Susac is captive thru 2021

And then there's that nice 'almost ripe' bunch of pitching prospects coming up soon ...

I just don' think that this is the year to go 'all or nothing'. I think we are in decent shape, and that it's more important to keep our best prospects than it is to do crazy trades that cost a lot. My 2 centavos.