2016 Rosterbation

[tzill]

Most of you are arguing for patience, and that this is not the time to go for broke and grab a Chapman, Hamels, etc. Makes sense to me.

I wonder though: how much does winning three of the last five years influence that conclusion? The argument could be made that this roster, with its excellence defense and improved hitting, could beat anyone with another great starter to go with Bum. With Timmeh and Hud coming off the books, why not grab Hamels while you can?

If we don't win the whole thing last year, I think I might be swayed into joining the "this team is ready to win now/the minor leaguers might never perform at the MLB level" camp.

Several reasons to NOT "grab Hamels." In descending order:

1. The cost. Philly is being dumb about this, but they are not going to give up Hamels for anything less than Beede, Susac, and Osich. At a minimum.
2. The Giants prospects, for whatever reason, are undervalued. So we'd have to trade more of them than another org with better rankings would. You'd think with all of the homegrown players we have our prospects would be valued higher, but they are not.
3. Payroll -- BT, JA and Huddy, McCrap, Kobe and Tron are coming off the books ($46MM) but we have the following raises: Buster 3.5; Pagan 1.0; Peavy 6.0; Bum 3.0; Romo 3.0; KCya 1.0; Aoki 1.5; JLo 1.0; Belt 2.0; Shark 0.5; Craw 2.0; Biggie 1.0; Max 0.5; Hacktor 0.5; Panik 0.3; Kontos 1.0; Duffman 0.3; Hesto 0.3, Strick 0.3; Suss 0.3. Thats about $29MM in raises IF no new contracts are signed. So you're looking at $17MM to spend and four or five open spots on the roster (SP, RP, 2 IF, maybe OF). Hamels will get 23.5 for the next four years. We'd blow past this years budget with just him alone, and still have 3 or 4 roster spots left to fill. Even assuming a 5% raise in payroll (the average for us over the last 5 years), I can't see committing $70MM a year to the SP.
4. Blocking -- Less of a concern, as adding a talent like Hamels would make the entire org stronger, but this ties into number 3. A rotation of Cain/Peavy/Bum/Hesto/Hamels blocks our young arms. Beede would likely be gone, but there are several SP that are close to ML ready in the system now, and there would be no ML spot for them to come up. Thus, we'd be paying a lot more for SP than if, say, Beede makes the team next year. That's a $23MM difference in the payroll.

That all said, if we were still waiting for our first trophy in SF, I'd be more inclined to throw money and caution to the wind in an attempt to grab a ring. Glad we are NOT that franchise, though.

 

[Stokes1931]

Several reasons to NOT "grab Hamels." In descending order:

1. The cost. Philly is being dumb about this, but they are not going to give up Hamels for anything less than Beede, Susac, and Osich. At a minimum.
2. The Giants prospects, for whatever reason, are undervalued. So we'd have to trade more of them than another org with better rankings would. You'd think with all of the homegrown players we have our prospects would be valued higher, but they are not.
3. Payroll -- BT, JA and Huddy, McCrap, Kobe and Tron are coming off the books ($46MM) but we have the following raises: Buster 3.5; Pagan 1.0; Peavy 6.0; Bum 3.0; Romo 3.0; KCya 1.0; Aoki 1.5; JLo 1.0; Belt 2.0; Shark 0.5; Craw 2.0; Biggie 1.0; Max 0.5; Hacktor 0.5; Panik 0.3; Kontos 1.0; Duffman 0.3; Hesto 0.3, Strick 0.3; Suss 0.3. Thats about $29MM in raises IF no new contracts are signed. So you're looking at $17MM to spend and four or five open spots on the roster (SP, RP, 2 IF, maybe OF). Hamels will get 23.5 for the next four years. We'd blow past this years budget with just him alone, and still have 3 or 4 roster spots left to fill. Even assuming a 5% raise in payroll (the average for us over the last 5 years), I can't see committing $70MM a year to the SP.
4. Blocking -- Less of a concern, as adding a talent like Hamels would make the entire org stronger, but this ties into number 3. A rotation of Cain/Peavy/Bum/Hesto/Hamels blocks our young arms. Beede would likely be gone, but there are several SP that are close to ML ready in the system now, and there would be no ML spot for them to come up. Thus, we'd be paying a lot more for SP than if, say, Beede makes the team next year. That's a $23MM difference in the payroll.

That all said, if we were still waiting for our first trophy in SF, I'd be more inclined to throw money and caution to the wind in an attempt to grab a ring. Glad we are NOT that franchise, though.

Good points. What if the Philth paid half of Hamels' salary? Would that make a difference?

I was glad we signed Peavy last year, as he was a difference maker. But I was not thrilled about resigning him, and that to a two-year deal. He's turned into a 5 inning starter.

Hamels has averaged 210 innings per year the last 8 years, and is on pace for 214 innings this season. He is durable, and reliable. He is also 31 (32 in December). He would add another LHP to the rotation, which at this point has 4 righties and Bum. More balanced.

And if were going to raid the Philth, why not try to add Roman Quinn? A Switch hitting OF with speed and a + OF arm, 22 years old. I was very impressed with him at last year's AFL.

Our system has a plethora of young IF, but OF aside from Jones in Augusta is not strong. Duvall is going to be a DH in the majors, Mac has not gotten out of AA, the cupboard appears relatively empty with quality OF in our system.

We do have some catchers coming up, though some years away. Garcia is putting up good numbers in Augusta. He's got good power, some plate discipline, and has a .989 fielding percentage. (Posey's MLB career is .993)

Who would I give up for Hamels and Quinn? Good question. I don't think anyone in the system is untouchable, except perhaps Beede, but he seems at least a year or two away. We have a ton of ML -ready relievers already, and will need those when Patty, JLo, Romo, etc run out their contract.

Would I do Beede, Susac and Osich for Hamels? No way. But the Philth need to offload some expensive assets. Would love to have Hamels, though.

 

[calsnowskier]

I am not familiar with Quinn, but why would the Philth part with him if he is a solid prospect? They are looking to build for 2-3 years down the road. You dont do that by trading 22 yo OFers.

 

[GiantsPackersChamps2011]

I am not familiar with Quinn, but why would the Philth part with him if he is a solid prospect? They are looking to build for 2-3 years down the road. You dont do that by trading 22 yo OFers.

They wouldn't

 

[Stokes1931]

I am not familiar with Quinn, but why would the Philth part with him if he is a solid prospect? They are looking to build for 2-3 years down the road. You dont do that by trading 22 yo OFers.

They have no reason to get rid of Quinn. Just wishful thinking.

 

[GiantsPackersChamps2011]

Brewers apparently willing to make Carlos Gomez available

 

[Mays-Fan]

Cafardo On Mariners, Pirates, Zobrist - MLB Trade Rumors

Then there is always Ben Zobrist.

 

[tzill]

Good points. What if the Philth paid half of Hamels' salary? Would that make a difference?

I was glad we signed Peavy last year, as he was a difference maker. But I was not thrilled about resigning him, and that to a two-year deal. He's turned into a 5 inning starter.

Hamels has averaged 210 innings per year the last 8 years, and is on pace for 214 innings this season. He is durable, and reliable. He is also 31 (32 in December). He would add another LHP to the rotation, which at this point has 4 righties and Bum. More balanced.

And if were going to raid the Philth, why not try to add Roman Quinn? A Switch hitting OF with speed and a + OF arm, 22 years old. I was very impressed with him at last year's AFL.

Our system has a plethora of young IF, but OF aside from Jones in Augusta is not strong. Duvall is going to be a DH in the majors, Mac has not gotten out of AA, the cupboard appears relatively empty with quality OF in our system.

We do have some catchers coming up, though some years away. Garcia is putting up good numbers in Augusta. He's got good power, some plate discipline, and has a .989 fielding percentage. (Posey's MLB career is .993)

Who would I give up for Hamels and Quinn? Good question. I don't think anyone in the system is untouchable, except perhaps Beede, but he seems at least a year or two away. We have a ton of ML -ready relievers already, and will need those when Patty, JLo, Romo, etc run out their contract.

Would I do Beede, Susac and Osich for Hamels? No way. But the Philth need to offload some expensive assets. Would love to have Hamels, though.

I can't see the Philth trading Quinn. They're in full rebuild and will be looking to aggregate young cheap assets, not trade them.

 

[calsnowskier]

They have no reason to get rid of Quinn. Just wishful thinking.

In that case, why not go after Fernandez, Harper, Correia and Trout as well?

 

[Stokes1931]

In that case, why not go after Fernandez, Harper, Correia and Trout as well?

Great idea! Maybe Kershaw is available, too!

 

[calsnowskier]

Bump...

 

[calsnowskier]

Update...

Options
Byrd (8M - not sure of buy out) - Vests with 550 PAs (strong possibility)
Aoki (5.5M/0.7M) - Becomes mutual option with 550 PAs (impossible)
Casilla (5.5M/1M) - Option becomes 6.5M with 55 GF in '15 (he is at 48)

I like all these options (Byrd is expensive, but he would be a solid option as a 3/4). Even if all three do not play for the Giants in '16, these are all doable. Aoki could be a decent trade chip.

Under MLB contract
Cain (20.83M)
Posey (20.78M)
Pence (18.5M)
Peavy (15M)
Pagan (11.25M)
Bumgarner (9.95M)
Romo (9M) (ouch!!)
Lopez (5M)
Blanco (3.9M)

Arbitration (2015 sal)
Belt (Arb 3 - 3.6M)
Petit (Arb 3 - 2.1M)
Crawford (Arb 2 - 3.175M)
Sanchez (Arb 2 - 0.8M)
Gearrin (Arb 1 - Min)
Kontos (Arb 1 - 517.5K)

Belt, Craw and Kontos are no-brainers. Petit may be a roster-crunch casualty. Gearrin needs to do well this month, but is likely getting non-tendered. With the promotion of Brown, I think Sanchez is gone.

Free Agents
Hudson (retired)
Scutaro (retired)
Affeldt (likely retired)
Vogelsong
Lincecum
Leake
De Aza

Sounds like there is strong mutual interest in Timmeh coming back on a minor-league deal, with an inside track to a roster-spot in ST. I am OK with that. I like what I have seen from De Aza, but there just isnt any room. Leake is the #1 priority for the team in the off-season, so he will almost certainly be back. Vogey will try to latch on with another team, I think, but his time with the Giants is over. There just isnt any room.

Controlled 40-man roster (options going into '16/Arb 1 year)
Panik (3/??)
Adrianza (0/'17)
Duffy (3/??)
Black (3/??)
Bochy (2/??)
Broadway (0/??)
Brown (3/??)
Gregorio (2/??)
Hall (2/??)
Heston (2/'18)
Law (2/??)
Noonan (0/??)
Osich (2/??)
Parker (1/??)
Perez (0/'17)
Strickland (0/??)
Susac (2/??)
Tomlinson (3/??)
Williams (2/??)
Williamson (3/??)

Noonan, Williams, Bochy, Broadway, Adrianza and Perez are all either 0-option players on the bubble or DFA candidates. Strickland is out of options, but basically guaranteed a roster-spot. Panik and Duffy are 100% locks for the 25-man while Osich, Tomlinson, Strickland and Heston are north of 90% locks. Adrianza will likely make it to ST, but he will have to earn his spot. Broadway will likely get the same treatment, but if the 40-spot is needed, he could be DFA'd and invited back.

 

[SFGRTB]

But I liked creating multiple threads about one specific aspect of the offseason that turn into general offseason discussions...

 

[calsnowskier]

Here is what we look like going into 2016, using assumed Arbs and locks...

Bumgarner
Cain
Peavy

Romo
Lopez
Kontos
Strickland

Posey
Belt
Panik
Crawford
Duffy

Pence
Pagan
Blanco

Susac

This leaves 2 SP, 3/4 relievers, 3/4 util/OFs open spots.


Heston, Osich and Tomlinson are just shy of being 100% locks for the roster. Casilla, Byrd and Aoki are pretty close to being locks as well.

This leaves 1 SP, 1/2 relievers, 1/2 util/OFs.

Heston is a 120 pitch SP, but he hits the wall early in the season. Does he convert to the pen, work his endurance, or become closer to a 100 pitch SP? I think he is a solid enough SP that he needs to be in the rotation. That leaves 1 SP needed, likely Leake. But a rotation of Bum/Leake/Heston/Cain/Peavy is iffy at best, with 3 BIG question marks. If '16 is truly going to be a contention-year, we need AT LEAST one more non-question.

The bully will be decided, I think, after the rotation. Is Cain/Peavy moved to the bully? Does Petit come back? Are there trades-galore that redefines the bully? Still too early to breakout the permanent-ink here.

I think right now, EA has the early track on the last bench job. However, I think Aoki is going to be traded in the off-season, so there will likely be 2 open bench spots.

 

[SFGRTB]

There will be trades to clear up some roster junk.

With all these injuries, the Giants have been forced to add guys to the 40-man roster they may not have been ready for.

Unfortunately, Kontos may be expendable. He has decent trade value right now. Remember, the Giants got Pagan for Ramon Ramirez and a broken Andres Torres. Romo's $9M salary pretty makes him impossible to move in any good trade for the Giants.

Also, with 5 catchers on the 40-man, two probably have to go (smart to carry 3). Unfortunately, 4 of them don't have great trade value right now and the 5th is an MVP. Williams is an easy call, but the Giants would probably lose Brown if exposed to waivers, so Sanchez is probably the one to go.

 

[calsnowskier]

There will be trades to clear up some roster junk.

With all these injuries, the Giants have been forced to add guys to the 40-man roster they may not have been ready for.

Unfortunately, Kontos may be expendable. He has decent trade value right now. Remember, the Giants got Pagan for Ramon Ramirez and a broken Andres Torres. Romo's $9M salary pretty makes him impossible to move in any good trade for the Giants.

I am 100% OK with dealing Greek. We are SUPER-deep in the bully, and I seriously doubt Kontos' value will ever be as high as it is now.

 

[calsnowskier]

Assuming I am looking at this correctly (BIG assumption), HS players form the '11 draft and college players from the '12 draft are eligible for the Rule V draft this year.

Potential players who we will need to protect...

Crick
Agosta (having a BIG second half, and may be a huge break-out next year)
Blach
Okert
Blackburn
Biagini
Stratton
Forjet
Turner

I think Blackburn, Okert, Blach, Stratton, and Crick are no-brainers. Agosta MIGHT be low enough to leave unprotected. Biagini and Forjet are stretches. Turner had a decent year in AAA, but the Giants are already deep at catcher on the 40, so he may be a casualty.

Before signing any FAs or picking up any options, but before non-tenders, the 40-man has 35 players. That covers the "no-brainers". But if they want to protect Turner or Agosta, they will need to non-tender/DFA. I think they have the flexibility to do what they want with Sanchez, Gearrin, Broadway, Bochy, Noonan and Williams.

 

[MarcoPolo]

I have to agree about H Sanchez & T Brown. Brown still has 3 option years, so would be perfect as the third/emergency catcher to play in Sac. He'd only be making around $80k while in the minors. (And I'm sure that Brown will be more than happy to play all year in Sacramento - he'll be earning about 4 times what he made this year, and now knows that he's on the short list to maybe become a full-time major-leaguer. In fact, his 2 weeks in the majors will earn him more than he made the entire season in AAA!) Sanchez has shown that he can't stay healthy and that he can't hit consistently. It would also be dangerous for him to continue playing after repeated concussions over 2 years. He should be gone.

 

[MarcoPolo]

Assuming I am looking at this correctly (BIG assumption), HS players form the '11 draft and college players from the '12 draft are eligible for the Rule V draft this year.

Potential players who we will need to protect...

Crick
Agosta (having a BIG second half, and may be a huge break-out next year)
Blach
Okert
Blackburn
Biagini
Stratton
Forjet
Turner

I think Blackburn, Okert, Blach, Stratton, and Crick are no-brainers. Agosta MIGHT be low enough to leave unprotected. Biagini and Forjet are stretches. Turner had a decent year in AAA, but the Giants are already deep at catcher on the 40, so he may be a casualty.

Before signing any FAs or picking up any options, but before non-tenders, the 40-man has 35 players. That covers the "no-brainers". But if they want to protect Turner or Agosta, they will need to non-tender/DFA. I think they have the flexibility to do what they want with Sanchez, Gearrin, Broadway, Bochy, Noonan and Williams.

I think Biagini is a pretty big stretch. This is his best year (by far) since he's been in the org, and he's had some real stinkers. And this year his K/9 went *down* considerably, to below 6. I'd be surprised if they protected him. I also think that Ben Turner is a massive reach as well (unless he's a *great* receiver). He's never had an OPS over .699, and he was promoted to Sac from SJ mid-year. He doesn't hit for power, and since they promoted Trevor Brown yesterday, I think that's a pretty good indication of who the 3rd catcher on the 40-man is going to be next year.

I would be not at all surprised if either Agosta or Forjet (or both) are added to the 40-man, even though both were in SJ this season. I also wouldn't be surprised to see either leave as part of a trade to get a major leaguer.

 

[LHG]

I have to agree about H Sanchez & T Brown. Brown still has 3 option years, so would be perfect as the third/emergency catcher to play in Sac. He'd only be making around $80k while in the minors. (And I'm sure that Brown will be more than happy to play all year in Sacramento - he'll be earning about 4 times what he made this year, and now knows that he's on the short list to maybe become a full-time major-leaguer. In fact, his 2 weeks in the majors will earn him more than he made the entire season in AAA!) Sanchez has shown that he can't stay healthy and that he can't hit consistently. It would also be dangerous for him to continue playing after repeated concussions over 2 years. He should be gone.

I have to remind myself that Sanchez is going to be 26 years old and has already accumulated 597 at-bats in the past 5 seasons. I do so because my thought about letting him go is that he's young and still needs to prove himself. It seems easy to forget he first came up in 2011. I think its time to move on from him but I wonder if the front office feels the same way.