2016 Rosterbation

[tzill]

And then there is the Timmeh variable. If surgery is successful, and he is able to regain some velocity, perhaps the #5 is between Heston and Timmeh, and the FO feels that is sufficient. Perhaps we make a run at both Justin Upton and Jason Heyward.

2B Panik
RF Heyward
LF Pence
C Posey
CF Upton
1B Belt
SS Crawford
3B Duffy
P

I think Timmah gets a minor league contract with tons of incentives and an invite to ST. He's a longshot, but if he comes back he'd be an asset in Sacto in case Cain/Peavy get hurt.

 

[Mays-Fan]

I think Timmah gets a minor league contract with tons of incentives and an invite to ST. He's a longshot, but if he comes back he'd be an asset in Sacto in case Cain/Peavy get hurt.

I just can't see Timmeh doing that. And I'm not sure I can the the FO doing that to him.

I think he's either in the majors or he's done.

 

[tzill]

I just can't see Timmeh doing that. And I'm not sure I can the the FO doing that to him.

I think he's either in the majors or he's done.

Hey may decide to retire at the end of ST if he can't come back, but I could see him going to Sacto to work on things if he feels he's getting right.

 

[Mays-Fan]

I could see him going to Sacto for a rehab after surgery. But I can't see him hanging out there waiting in case Peavy or Cain (or whomever) gets hurt.

 

[MarcoPolo]

The competitive balance tax threshold is at $189M. I don't think that the Giants are going to want to go much past $180M, especially if they are going to do so for several years due to adding multiple expensive contracts. The first year the tax is 17.5% of the amount over $189M, the 2nd consecutive year the tax is 30%, then 40%, then 50% for the fourth and succeeding years. So if the Giants end up with a $199M salary budget for the next 5 years, they will pay $1.75M the first year, then $3M, then $4M, and finally $5M for years 4 and 5. The tax goes up even if the salary doesn't. (The dodgers paid almost $10M in '13, but it increased to $26.6M in 2014, and it will be even higher for this season since they both raised the salary AND this is the 3rd consecutive year so they are taxed at the 40% rate. I guess-timate that they will be paying almost $50M in taxes for 2015.)

Anyhow, I don't think the team will try to sign 2 FA starting pitchers this off-season (with the exception of Timmy). If they can sign Leake, then I think the only other pitcher would be Timmy with Heston starting the year in Sac (if Timmy is with the team out of ST) or Timmy will replace Heston in the starting rotation if he ever makes the team (with a possible short stint in the 'pen before hitting the rotation to make *sure* he is ready). If Timmy is signed and makes the team, Heston will spend part of '16 in Sac, and be the #6 starter who be be called up post May to replace whoever is flailing or earlier if a starter is injured.

Another reason that I don't think the team will sign another #2 starter (besides the cost) is because pitching is what the Giants DO. They currently have quite a crop of promising arms in Richmond and Sac. While some *will* be traded to acquire needed talent (say, a promising young OF prospect or year 4/5 major leaguer for 2017) the team *has* to believe that they will have a minimum of one arm ready to promote in 2016 (at least Heston) and another one or two in 2017, and again in 2018. Long term, they don't NEED two expensive multi-year FAs - they only need one new pitcher for 2016 (FA), one for '17 (from minors when Peavy leaves) and one in 18/19 (from minors when Cain's contract is up). Heston replaces Timmy (if he doesn't bounce back to being a decent #4, or is simply not re-signed, or leaves after 2016). One of Blackburn/Stratton/Blach replaces Peavy. When Cain leaves after 2017, hopefully at least one of the remaining 2 listed above can take his place for 2018, or maybe one of Mejia/Beede/Crick/Biagini/Gage/Suarez/Forjet/Bickford/Chase Johnson. Or, if Cain is pitching like a #2, they pick up his '18 option - by 2018, the avg price for a #3 starter might be around $21M (and it's an *additional* cost of 'just' $13.5M, since Cain gets $7.5M if the option isn't picked up). The Giants have MadBum under contract to '17, AND amazingly inexpensive options for '18 and '19. The team simply does NOT need to sign another pitcher. What talented #2 starter is going to want to sign a 1 or 2 year contract? So do they block a pitcher for the next 4-5 years AND go over the luxury tax threshold? To repeat myself, you just have to think that the Giants believe they will get at least one young starting pitcher from their farm system in 2016, 2017, and 2018/19. It would be great if they were #2/#3-class starters, but they don't have to be (at least not the first year or two) because they would be replacing the #4/#5 pitchers. Heck, if nobody is ready and Cain is pitching as our #3, then you bring him back on a new (short!) contract - he'll be 33 at the end of '17. MadBum will turn 30 at the end of the '19 season, so (if he is still pitching like MadBum and you don't have any new #1/#2 pitchers ready in the minors) you bring him back on a new contract for 2020. Leake will turn 28 after this season ends, so hopefully the Giants can sign him to a 4-year contract. He's the only FA starting pitcher that needs to be signed during 2015-2018.

(BTW, The Giants also have a HUGE crop of promising relievers in the upper three levels of the minors, so they shouldn't have to bring in outsiders for the pen before 2020, except maybe a closer - except that Strickland and Osich where doing a bang-up job in Sac and Richmond, respectively.) (I was originally going to make a short post - oops! , and this took me about 45 mins longer than I expected.)

 

[MarcoPolo]

Hey may decide to retire at the end of ST if he can't come back, but I could see him going to Sacto to work on things if he feels he's getting right.

. If Timmy isn't ready out of ST, but he is seeing improvement and he believes that he will 'get there' in a month or two, I can 100% see him going to Sac and working things out. This is based on his behavior and comments every time he was sent to the 'pen, including for the post-season. I wouldn't be surprised if there was an opt-out clause (can become a FA if not called up by Jun 15th, for example).

 

[MarcoPolo]

If Osich starts out 2016 anywhere remotely close to his 2015 performance, he may become the set-up man next season, and maybe the closer when Casilla leaves. He (Osich) has been an absolute STUD for Richmond, Sac, AND SF this year.

 

[MarcoPolo]

Oblig comment that I *must* make at least twice per season : I can't believe that we got George Kontos for that sack-of-shit Chris Stewart.

 

[MarcoPolo]

BTW, I don't think that the 'future salary obligations spreadsheet' on Cot's is correct for the Giants. The total at the bottom is suspiciously the exact same dollar amount as what is listed as 'salary on opening day', it doesn't list McGehee or Arias anymore (even though the Giants are still required to pay the salary). It used to be that when a guy was released (or traded and the Giants are paying a portion of his salary) that the mon(ies) would show up in a 'salary being paid to a player no longer on the team' section at the end of the spreadsheet. Also, the new acquisitions show their full salary for the year, which isn't what the Giants are paying (for Byrd or De Aza or Leake, for example).

 

[MarcoPolo]

Obviously, I am talking about the current year - I haven't even looked at 2016.

 

[calsnowskier]

Marco, you just spelled the problems the Giants face.

1) if they sign a big name pitcher, they go over the threshold and potentially block our existing SP prospects.

2) if they do not sign a big name pitcher, they are stuck with the same rotation we had this year, with the same, if not more questions. Bum/Leake(??)/Cain/Peavy/Timmeh(or Heston) is not a championship rotation.

I think the roster has to go through a semi-blowup in order to fix this issue. Trades have to me made to shuffle the roster, and some trades may hurt. I think we have definite depth in the infield that should be leveraged. Trade Craw/Panik/Duffy/Tomlinson and Susac/Belt. There is serious talent there, and a limited number of starting spots in SF. I am sure the Giants would be able to get a solid, young 3+ SP with some package there.

 

[MarcoPolo]

Marco, you just spelled the problems the Giants face.

1) if they sign a big name pitcher, they go over the threshold and potentially block our existing SP prospects.

2) if they do not sign a big name pitcher, they are stuck with the same rotation we had this year, with the same, if not more questions. Bum/Leake(??)/Cain/Peavy/Timmeh(or Heston) is not a championship rotation.

I think the roster has to go through a semi-blowup in order to fix this issue. Trades have to me made to shuffle the roster, and some trades may hurt. I think we have definite depth in the infield that should be leveraged. Trade Craw/Panik/Duffy/Tomlinson and Susac/Belt. There is serious talent there, and a limited number of starting spots in SF. I am sure the Giants would be able to get a solid, young 3+ SP with some package there.

Ah - now *trading* for a #2/#3 pitcher who would be under our control for 2 years (or even just one) would be a good thing to do. I would hate to lose Craw or Panik or Duffy, any of the three. Tomlinson and either Susac/Belt and an A+ (SJ) stud pitcher - none of our top 5 - maybe even one of our top relievers in AA as well. Of course, then we'd need to find a 1B. Duvall is hitting for massive power for the Reds (yes, SSS)- shame about the DFA, eh? We don't have a 1B anywhere near ready, so it would be great if we traded for one year of a pitcher and 3+ years of a 1B. Or, much as I would hate to see it, it might actually be better to trade Susac, to a team that needs a starting catcher. We can afford to lose the backup catcher a lot more easily than our starting 1B.

 

[LHG]

Ah - now *trading* for a #2/#3 pitcher who would be under our control for 2 years (or even just one) would be a good thing to do. I would hate to lose Craw or Panik or Duffy, any of the three. Tomlinson and either Susac/Belt and an A+ (SJ) stud pitcher - none of our top 5 - maybe even one of our top relievers in AA as well. Of course, then we'd need to find a 1B. Duvall is hitting for massive power for the Reds (yes, SSS)- shame about the DFA, eh? We don't have a 1B anywhere near ready, so it would be great if we traded for one year of a pitcher and 3+ years of a 1B. Or, much as I would hate to see it, it might actually be better to trade Susac, to a team that needs a starting catcher. We can afford to lose the backup catcher a lot more easily than our starting 1B.

If the Giants trade Belt and Susac then they do create a big hole in the lineup. But if its just Belt, then Posey moves over to 1st and Susac takes over catching duties (in hopes that his late season slide was just a fluke as a result of injuries). If its just Susac, then the Giants simply sift through Sanchez, Brown and one or two non-roster invitees to back up Posey.

 

[calsnowskier]

I never intended to say trade BOTH Susac AND Belt. But trading one of them is a possibility.

Also, like most fans, we all want to keep our existing talent while obtaining the talent of other orgs. That is video game thinking. To get something of value, you have to give something of value. We are not going to be able to get a major league #2/3 for a collection of AA relief prospects. That will cost a starting infielder and/or a AAA high ceiling SP

 

[LHG]

I never intended to say trade BOTH Susac AND Belt. But trading one of them is a possibility.

Also, like most fans, we all want to keep our existing talent while obtaining the talent of other orgs. That is video game thinking. To get something of value, you have to give something of value. We are not going to be able to get a major league #2/3 for a collection of AA relief prospects. That will cost a starting infielder and/or a AAA high ceiling SP

That really depends on the GM. Some drive harder bargains than others (see Pence, Hunter). I'm curious though, who do you think may be available that fits that description as a #2/3 starter with a couple of years of control left. There are not many out there.

 

[calsnowskier]

That really depends on the GM. Some drive harder bargains than others (see Pence, Hunter). I'm curious though, who do you think may be available that fits that description as a #2/3 starter with a couple of years of control left. There are not many out there.

Actually, at the time, the price for Pence was quite high. He was technically a rental, and he cost us a stud catching prospect, a B SP prospect and a legit #4 MLB OFer. ToJo has been plagued by injuries since the trade and Pence fell in love with the team and the city. That is why that trade turned out to be incredibly one-sided. But that rating is only in 20/20 hindsight.

As far as potential targets, I have no idea. Maybe Tyson Ross? Maybe is we want to dream a bit, Archer from TB, but he would cost a kings ransom, if it were even possible.

 

[SFGRTB]

That really depends on the GM. Some drive harder bargains than others (see Pence, Hunter). I'm curious though, who do you think may be available that fits that description as a #2/3 starter with a couple of years of control left. There are not many out there.

Alex Cobb, Tyson Ross, Andrew Cashner, Chris Tillman, Jesse Chavez, Julio Teheran, Gio Gonzalez, Steven Strasburg. Best names I could come up with. Some of those are easy to knock out, like the A'ss who never trade with us.

Personally, Tyson Ross is appealing but the Pads will make it tough to deal. Gio could be a good pickup.

edit: one more name, Jose Quintana

 

[LHG]

Actually, at the time, the price for Pence was quite high. He was technically a rental, and he cost us a stud catching prospect, a B SP prospect and a legit #4 MLB OFer. ToJo has been plagued by injuries since the trade and Pence fell in love with the team and the city. That is why that trade turned out to be incredibly one-sided. But that rating is only in 20/20 hindsight.

As far as potential targets, I have no idea. Maybe Tyson Ross? Maybe is we want to dream a bit, Archer from TB, but he would cost a kings ransom, if it were even possible.

Thank you for the wake up call on that one. The trade did look more steep at that the time. I do still think that some GMs will demand more for their pitchers than others. However, I'm not familiar with the trading history of many of the guys currently in office, so its hard to say who will even be willing to listen to offers.

 

[tzill]

I could see him going to Sacto for a rehab after surgery. But I can't see him hanging out there waiting in case Peavy or Cain (or whomever) gets hurt.

I see what you're saying; perhaps there'd be an opt out date at the end of ST if he doesn't make the roster. I think JCG had a clause like that.

 

[Stokes1931]

Pitchers Starts Innings Average
Bum 30 205.67 6.86
Hudson 20 117.67 5.88
Heston 28 164.67 5.88
Peavy 16 92.67 5.79
Leake 7 40.333 5.76
Vogey 22 116 5.27
Cain 10 52.33 5.23
Timmah 15 76.33 5.09