2016 Rosterbation

[LHG]

Pitchers Starts Innings Average
Bum 30 205.67 6.86
Hudson 20 117.67 5.88
Heston 28 164.67 5.88
Peavy 16 92.67 5.79
Leake 7 40.333 5.76
Vogey 22 116 5.27
Cain 10 52.33 5.23
Timmah 15 76.33 5.09

Nice to see Leake fitting right in with the team . . . wait, what?

 

[Stokes1931]

The Dogs' Starters

Pitcher starts innings average
Kershaw 30 215 7.17
Greinke 30 207.67 6.92
Frias 12 71.67 5.97
Anderson 28 164 5.86
McCarthy 4 23 5.75
Wood 9 51.67 5.74
Bolsinger 19 102 5.37
Latos 5 24.33 4.87

 

[calsnowskier]

Bum, Kershaw and Greinke are considered 3 of the best SPs in the game, so those are not surprising.

After those three, the rotations look rather similar (in IP/G at least). I would argue that the Giants SPs probably start with shorter leashes because the Giants have a near-elite bully and the dogs have the Kennel. That has to account for at least 1/3 of an inning or so per game over the season.

 

[tzill]

Pitchers Starts Innings Average
Bum 30 205.67 6.86
Hudson 20 117.67 5.88
Heston 28 164.67 5.88
Peavy 16 92.67 5.79
Leake 7 40.333 5.76
Vogey 22 116 5.27
Cain 10 52.33 5.23
Timmah 15 76.33 5.09

I think you need to look at Leake's whole season:

28 GS 177 IP 6.32 AvIP

 

[Stokes1931]

I think you need to look at Leake's whole season:

28 GS 177 IP 6.32 AvIP

Fair enough.

Before the 3 inning game the other day, he was averaging 6.22 innings per start for the Giants, close to his whole season's average.

He'd be a solid addition, if healthy.

 

[calsnowskier]

Fair enough.

Before the 3 inning game the other day, he was averaging 6.22 innings per start for the Giants, close to his whole season's average.

He'd be a solid addition, if healthy.

This is the key.

 

[Stokes1931]

This is the key.

Yup. I have inherited the moniker "Captain Obvious" from GoldenBears98.

 

[tzill]

This is the key.

Well, his games started over the last four years:
2012 -- 30
2013 -- 31
2014 -- 33
2015 -- 28 (with 2 starts to go)

Further he's saying the forearm tightness is just something everyone works through and that he'll be fine. Bochy hasn't said anything about him missing a start. Finally, he's 27; just coming into his prime.

5/80.

 

[calsnowskier]

Well, his games started over the last four years:
2012 -- 30
2013 -- 31
2014 -- 33
2015 -- 28 (with 2 starts to go)

Further he's saying the forearm tightness is just something everyone works through and that he'll be fine. Bochy hasn't said anything about him missing a start. Finally, he's 27; just coming into his prime.

5/80.

So let me get this straight...

You would expect a 27 year old starting pitcher going into free agency to say something to the effect of "I am really worried about my arm. I may need TJ in the next year or so."

Let me guess. Your field of study in law is NOT contract negotiations...

 

[tzill]

So let me get this straight...

You would expect a 27 year old starting pitcher going into free agency to say something to the effect of "I am really worried about my arm. I may need TJ in the next year or so."

Let me guess. Your field of study in law is NOT contract negotiations...

No, I would expect a 27 yo who averages 30 GS a year over the last four to be durable and put up similar numbers over the next four, maybe even better numbers as he pitches through his prime.

My point wasn't that we should take everything Leake says as gospel. My point was that there are no disaster indicators out there. His arm was stiff; it happens. Could it be TJ? Sure. But that ain't the way to bet. If it were, I'd expect him to get shut down for the last two weeks and for Bochy to say "he's getting tests and visiting Dr. Andrews."

 

[calsnowskier]

No, I would expect a 27 yo who averages 30 GS a year over the last four to be durable and put up similar numbers over the next four, maybe even better numbers as he pitches through his prime.

My point wasn't that we should take everything Leake says as gospel. My point was that there are no disaster indicators out there. His arm was stiff; it happens. Could it be TJ? Sure. But that ain't the way to bet. If it were, I'd expect him to get shut down for the last two weeks and for Bochy to say "he's getting tests and visiting Dr. Andrews."

It comes down to the fact that none of us know jack-shit about jack-shit.

Assuming his issues since coming over have been a combination of SSS and non-major injuries, I am excited about having him back as a worst-case-scenario #2 / ideal #3. If the Giants sign him, I will trust that they are comfortable with his health issues.

However, if he ends up signing a 2 year deal somewhere, that tells me that there ARE major risks with him, and we are not in a situation where taking that risk makes sense. The Giants need constants, not variables.

 

[MarcoPolo]

It comes down to the fact that none of us know jack-shit about jack-shit.

Hey, *I* know Jack Shit (properly spelled Schitt).

Jack Schitt is the only son of Awe Schitt.

Awe Schitt, the fertilizer magnate, married Miss O. Needeep They had one son, Jack.

In turn, Jack Schitt married Noe Schitt. The deeply religious couple produced six children: Holie Schitt, Giva Schitt, Fulla Schitt, Bull Schitt, and the twins Deap Schitt and Dip Schitt.

Against her parents' objections, Deap Schitt married her cousin Dumb Schitt, a high school dropout. After being married 15 years, Jack and Noe Schitt divorced.

Noe Schitt later married Ted Sherlock, and, because her kids were living with them, she wanted to keep her previous name. She was then known as Noe Schitt Sherlock.

Meanwhile, Dip Schitt married Loda Schitt, and they produced a son with a rather nervous disposition named Chick N. Schitt.

Two of the other six children, Fulla Schitt and Giva Schitt, were inseparable throughout childhood and subsequently married the Happens brothers in a dual ceremony.

The wedding announcement in the newspaper announced the Schitt-Happens nuptials.

The Schitt-Happens children were Dawg, Byrd, and Hoarse. Bull Schitt, the prodigal son, left home to tour the world. He recently returned from Italy with his new Italian bride, Pisa Schitt.

 

[tzill]

Hey, *I* know Jack Shit (properly spelled Schitt).

Jack Schitt is the only son of Awe Schitt.

Awe Schitt, the fertilizer magnate, married Miss O. Needeep They had one son, Jack.

In turn, Jack Schitt married Noe Schitt. The deeply religious couple produced six children: Holie Schitt, Giva Schitt, Fulla Schitt, Bull Schitt, and the twins Deap Schitt and Dip Schitt.

Against her parents' objections, Deap Schitt married her cousin Dumb Schitt, a high school dropout. After being married 15 years, Jack and Noe Schitt divorced.

Noe Schitt later married Ted Sherlock, and, because her kids were living with them, she wanted to keep her previous name. She was then known as Noe Schitt Sherlock.

Meanwhile, Dip Schitt married Loda Schitt, and they produced a son with a rather nervous disposition named Chick N. Schitt.

Two of the other six children, Fulla Schitt and Giva Schitt, were inseparable throughout childhood and subsequently married the Happens brothers in a dual ceremony.

The wedding announcement in the newspaper announced the Schitt-Happens nuptials.

The Schitt-Happens children were Dawg, Byrd, and Hoarse. Bull Schitt, the prodigal son, left home to tour the world. He recently returned from Italy with his new Italian bride, Pisa Schitt.

 

[LHG]

Currently, the team has 46 players between the 40 man roster and the 6 players on the 60 day disabled list.

Out of those 48 players, 11 of them will be free agents: Affeldt, Aoki, Byrd, Casilla, de Aza, Frandsen, Hudson, Leake, Lincecum, Scutaro and Vogelsong.

Of the 11 free agents, 3 will probably retire (Affeldt, Hudson and Scutaro). Another two will most likely have options vesting (Byrd, Casilla), putting them back on the 40 man roster. Let's count the third pending option (Aoki), to put the 40 man roster at the maximum.

From what I can tell, the following minor leagues are eligible to be drafted in the Rule 5 draft in December: Bryce Bandilla, rp; Joe Biagini, sp; Ty Blach, sp; Clayton Blackburn, sp; Kyle Crick, rp; Carlos Diaz, rp; E.J. Encinosa, rp; Ian Gardeck, rp; Chris Johnson, sp; Joseph Kurrasch, sp; Andrew Leenhouts, sp; Matt Lujan, sp; Phil McCormick, rp; Adalberto Mejia, sp; Tyler Mizenko, rp; Reyes Moronta, rp; Steven Okert, rp; Randy Ortiz, rp; Eury Sanchez, rp; Jacob Smith, rp; Jack Snodgrass, sp; Jeff Soptic, rp; Chris Stratton, sp; Leo Rojas, c; Ben Turner, c; Mitchell Delfino, 3rd; Rando Moreno, ss; Ricky Oropesa, 1st; John Polonius, 2nd; Travious Relaford, ss; Julio Pena, of

I've bolded the ones I think are most likely to get protected. The position player group is pretty weak (and thin in numbers). The pitchers, however, make for some interesting decisions. If all the ones I've listed are going to be needed protection (I may have calculated wrong, not sure), that leaves anywhere between 4 to 8 spots needing clearance on the 40 man roster.

Thus, I think the following are most likely to get removed from the 40 man roster: Mike Broadway, rp; Brett Bochy, rp; Cory Gearrin, rp; Cody Hall, rp; Derek Law, rp; Trevor Brown, c; Hector Sanchez, c; Jackson Williams, c; Ehire Adrianza, ss; Nick Noonan, 2nd; Juan Perez, of

I've bolded those most likely to be a victim of removal. That only brings half of the guys I think the Giants would most likely be added and does not allow for room to sign any major league free agents or add anyone from the Rule 5 draft (which is highly unlikely anyway). Petit could well be non-tendered but I cannot really see anyone else non tendered.

The Giants are going to have to make some hard decisions on a lot of guys in the system.

 

[LHG]

In my list of players who will need to be protected from the Rule 5 draft, I forgot Martin Agosta, rp. He makes things even more interesting.

 

[calsnowskier]

In my list of players who will need to be protected from the Rule 5 draft, I forgot Martin Agosta, rp. He makes things even more interesting.

I addressed the Rule V guys a couple pages back...

Assuming I am looking at this correctly (BIG assumption), HS players form the '11 draft and college players from the '12 draft are eligible for the Rule V draft this year.

Potential players who we will need to protect...

Crick
Agosta (having a BIG second half, and may be a huge break-out next year)
Blach
Okert
Blackburn
Biagini
Stratton
Forjet
Turner

I think Blackburn, Okert, Blach, Stratton, and Crick are no-brainers. Agosta MIGHT be low enough to leave unprotected. Biagini and Forjet are stretches. Turner had a decent year in AAA, but the Giants are already deep at catcher on the 40, so he may be a casualty.

Before signing any FAs or picking up any options, but before non-tenders, the 40-man has 35 players. That covers the "no-brainers". But if they want to protect Turner or Agosta, they will need to non-tender/DFA. I think they have the flexibility to do what they want with Sanchez, Gearrin, Broadway, Bochy, Noonan and Williams.

My protection list was only looking at drafted players. However, we have quite a few Latin players that will likely be eligible for the Rule V as well.

Rando Moreno
Jesus Galindo
Jose Reyes (stretch)
Adalberto Mejia
Jose Casilla

I think Mejia and Moreno are near-locks.

 

[LHG]

I addressed the Rule V guys a couple pages back...

cal, I wasn't trying to ignore your list, just trying to add with the additional players on the 40 man roster and after looking at a more exhaustive list of Rule 5 eligible players.

The one area I'm not clear about is how the Dominican summer leagues count toward playing time both for the Rule 5 draft and for minor league free agency. If those seasons count as full seasons, then Moreno was eligible to be drafted last year (but he did have a much better season in 2015 than 2014) and both Galindo and Reyes are going to be free agents. However, if the seasons in the Dominican don't count, then Moreno is not eligible yet for the Rule 5 and Galindo and Reyes get to stay in the farm system.

Jose Casilla should be a minor league free agent again since he was one last year (the assumption being that minor league free agents cannot sign multi-year contracts unless they sign major league contracts).

 

[calsnowskier]

I wasnt staking a claim on the subject, just bumping the work I already did as a response to your good work.

I am not that clear on the rules for the Rule V. Most of what I have read have stated that the rules are a bit shady anyway, so we cant really be 100% on any of our lists. I know my rule about HS players getting 5 years and college players getting 4 years is over-simplified, but I am willing to work with that level of inaccuracy.

As for Moreno not getting selected last year, remember that if you take a player in the major league portion of the draft, that player must be on the 25 man roster the entire season, and actually on the ACTIVE roster (non-DL) for something like 100 games. Therefore, typically, players in A+ or lower are pretty safe from this thing. Now that Moreno has a decent year in AA under his belt, I think he is a potential target this year. However, with the Giants depth in the infield, maybe they risk losing him to make sure they protect higher-valued players (like Jacob Smith, whom I omitted from my lists)

 

[MarcoPolo]

cal, I wasn't trying to ignore your list, just trying to add with the additional players on the 40 man roster and after looking at a more exhaustive list of Rule 5 eligible players.

The one area I'm not clear about is how the Dominican summer leagues count toward playing time both for the Rule 5 draft and for minor league free agency. If those seasons count as full seasons, then Moreno was eligible to be drafted last year (but he did have a much better season in 2015 than 2014) and both Galindo and Reyes are going to be free agents.

'Time on roster' isn't used to determine when a player needs to be protected from the rule 5 draft or when minor league free agency occurs.

For the rule 5 draft, a player who signed his contract at 18 or younger gets 5 'protected' years, and a player who was 19 or older gets 4 'protected' years before needing to be added to the 40-man. In general it is calendar time, not seasons on a roster, that counts and the 'start date' is the date the contract was signed. (Yes, there are exceptions, but being on the *minor league* DL the whole season isn't one of them.)

For minor league free agency, it is also calendar time, not seasons on a roster, that counts. Again, there are exceptions, but being on the DL isn't one of them (for example, being on the restricted or suspended for the whole season would mean that season doesn't count). If a player is released by his first team, he becomes a free agent. Once released, if he signs another contract he will become a FA at the end of the time the contract specifies no matter how many years of minor league service time he has.

Lastly (and this *may* be where you are talking about 'service time', but it's not really service time - it's time on the roster), a player may get a FOURTH option year if he has fewer than 5 pro seasons. For THIS case, 'pro seasons' are any season he spent in the minors where he was on the active or reserve list (or any MLB roster) for at least 90 days (minor league DL time does NOT count, major league DL *does* count). So the short-season leagues (New-York Penn, Northwest, Pioneer, Appalachian, Gulf Coast, Arizona Rookie, Dominican and Venezuelan Summer Leagues) do not count as full seasons for the purposes of determining eligibility for a fourth option.

A twist that minor leaguers on the 40-man LOVE : you can't be moved to the 60-day DL unless you are 'in the majors'. So if a team needs to free up a roster spot using a guy in the minors, they would have to PROMOTE an injured 40-man roster minor league dude from the minors to the majors, and THEN place him on the 60-man. For the player, that means that instead of being on the minor-league DL with no benefits and accruing no service time, he is moved the a major league DL where he (a) accrues both minor-league and major-league service time {which is why H Sanchez has so much service time - all the time he spent on the DL count}, and (b) is getting paid *major league* minimum ($500K/yr) instead of minor league minimum ($80K for a dude on the 40-man), and (c) is accruing benefits for the MLB retirement/pension paln, and (d) his medical expenses {and quality of care} is mandated by the CBA, so it's probably a LOT better.

Anyhow, you asked ...

 

[LHG]

'Time on roster' isn't used to determine when a player needs to be protected from the rule 5 draft or when minor league free agency occurs.

For the rule 5 draft, a player who signed his contract at 18 or younger gets 5 'protected' years, and a player who was 19 or older gets 4 'protected' years before needing to be added to the 40-man. In general it is calendar time, not seasons on a roster, that counts and the 'start date' is the date the contract was signed. (Yes, there are exceptions, but being on the *minor league* DL the whole season isn't one of them.)

For minor league free agency, it is also calendar time, not seasons on a roster, that counts. Again, there are exceptions, but being on the DL isn't one of them (for example, being on the restricted or suspended for the whole season would mean that season doesn't count). If a player is released by his first team, he becomes a free agent. Once released, if he signs another contract he will become a FA at the end of the time the contract specifies no matter how many years of minor league service time he has.

Lastly (and this *may* be where you are talking about 'service time', but it's not really service time - it's time on the roster), a player may get a FOURTH option year if he has fewer than 5 pro seasons. For THIS case, 'pro seasons' are any season he spent in the minors where he was on the active or reserve list (or any MLB roster) for at least 90 days (minor league DL time does NOT count, major league DL *does* count). So the short-season leagues (New-York Penn, Northwest, Pioneer, Appalachian, Gulf Coast, Arizona Rookie, Dominican and Venezuelan Summer Leagues) do not count as full seasons for the purposes of determining eligibility for a fourth option.

A twist that minor leaguers on the 40-man LOVE : you can't be moved to the 60-day DL unless you are 'in the majors'. So if a team needs to free up a roster spot using a guy in the minors, they would have to PROMOTE an injured 40-man roster minor league dude from the minors to the majors, and THEN place him on the 60-man. For the player, that means that instead of being on the minor-league DL with no benefits and accruing no service time, he is moved the a major league DL where he (a) accrues both minor-league and major-league service time {which is why H Sanchez has so much service time - all the time he spent on the DL count}, and (b) is getting paid *major league* minimum ($500K/yr) instead of minor league minimum ($80K for a dude on the 40-man), and (c) is accruing benefits for the MLB retirement/pension paln, and (d) his medical expenses {and quality of care} is mandated by the CBA, so it's probably a LOT better.

Anyhow, you asked ...

Thanks Marco. You are a wealth of information. I looked at COTS briefly but didn't find all that information right away and didn't have time to dig through all the information there. Some of what you said confirmed what I suspected but was not sure about. Other stuff is completely new. I thought that I was pretty knowledgeable on some of this stuff but you blow me out of the water, and its not even close. I don't even get the lingo correct (service time versus time on the roster).