2016 Rosterbation

[tzill]

Not as good as Belt, granted, but...

Burrell
Huff
Morse
LaRoche

Just off the top of my head.

Like I said, I like Belt better than these guys. But I would rather have flexibility at 1B than lock in a guy who is just upper mid-level. 1B is the NL version of the DH.

Well, is Susac and Posey a better lineup than Belt and Posey? Because that's what you're talking about. Plus, you'd have defensive downgrades from Belt to Posey at 1B and from Posey to Sac behind the dish.

Just doesn't make sense to me. Especially since Belt is entering his prime.

 

[tzill]

The Giants don't really lose much tendering a contract to Petit, but they don't gain a thing by non-tendering him. $2.5M is pocket change at this point. He has value, I expect they'll trade him for something.

And, if my understanding is correct, just because they tender him a contract doesn't mean they have to commit to an amount right away. They can choose to tender him a contract and look to trade him throughout the winter until the (February?) deadline comes around to settle on a contract. It's what the Marlins did with McGeehe.

They tender him arbitration, true. The amount gets fixed there, or more likely, just prior to.

That aside, I can't see the upside of tendering him. He's trending downward and he's over 30. Not the way to bet.

 

[LHG]

Well, is Susac and Posey a better lineup than Belt and Posey? Because that's what you're talking about. Plus, you'd have defensive downgrades from Belt to Posey at 1B and from Posey to Sac behind the dish.

Just doesn't make sense to me. Especially since Belt is entering his prime.

Wait, did you just question Susac's ability?

 

[LHG]

The Giants don't really lose much tendering a contract to Petit, but they don't gain a thing by non-tendering him. $2.5M is pocket change at this point. He has value, I expect they'll trade him for something.

And, if my understanding is correct, just because they tender him a contract doesn't mean they have to commit to an amount right away. They can choose to tender him a contract and look to trade him throughout the winter until the (February?) deadline comes around to settle on a contract. It's what the Marlins did with McGeehe.

I don't know about the time period between when you all migrated from Disney to earlier this season when I arrived, but from what I remember from my days at the ESPN forum and these past few months, I think we all (myself included) can over rate the value a certain player carries. I wish I could remember all the times over the years one of us has argued holding on to a certain player because that player would get value in return, only to see either (A) the player gets traded and the return is lower than expected or (B) players walks or gets released and no value is returned.

To a certain extent, all players have value (besides the fact that they are human beings, but that's another forum). But to say a guy like Petit, who is a sparingly used long reliever, with a WHIP of 1.184 and an ERA of 3.67, should be retained and traded, I think, is a bit of a stretch. I think most GMs are savvy enough to realize that they can get someone of his caliber off the scrap heap (minor league free agency, waiver claim, failed minor league starter) just like we got Petit. Or do something like the Cardinals did with Carlos Villanueva, wait out the market and get someone for $2 million. Just my thoughts on the idea of retaining Petit.

 

[calsnowskier]

Well, is Susac and Posey a better lineup than Belt and Posey? Because that's what you're talking about. Plus, you'd have defensive downgrades from Belt to Posey at 1B and from Posey to Sac behind the dish.

Just doesn't make sense to me. Especially since Belt is entering his prime.

Again, I like Belt. He is upper mid-level.

My argument against locking him down is not a slight against Belt, but rather an acknowledgement that 1B is a safety valve position.

In a perfect world, we dont want Posey catching more than 100-110 games in '16. That means he either sits or plays 1B in those other 50-60 games (we WOULD play him at 3B, but Duffy rudely stole his spot there). Playing Belt in left is OK, but given normal injury issues in the OF this year, we already have Aoki and Byrd (potentially) as well as Blanco and Williamson/Parker. Those are a lot of quality bodies for a very limited number of PAs.

And Posey's games behind the dish will not be increasing going past '16.

 

[LHG]

Again, I like Belt. He is upper mid-level.

My argument against locking him down is not a slight against Belt, but rather an acknowledgement that 1B is a safety valve position.

In a perfect world, we dont want Posey catching more than 100-110 games in '16. That means he either sits or plays 1B in those other 50-60 games we WOULD play him at 3B, but Duffy rudely stole his spot there). Playing Belt in left is OK, but given normal injury issues in the OF this year, we already have Aoki and Byrd (potentially) as well as Blanco and Williamson/Parker. Those are a lot of quality bodies for a very limited number of PAs.

And Posey's games behind the dish will not be increasing going past '16.

Here's where I think the Giants are at a crossroads with Belt, in regards to what it communicates to Belt if they extend Crawford but not him. Much like the argument about playing Byrd simply to activate his option, would the Giants do a disservice to themselves to keep Belt on the roster but not extend his contract? If its a non issue, then I have no problem with extending Crawford now and waiting on Belt. The Giants have one more arbitration year to go through before he hits free agency. By then, Posey may have to be moved to 1st base and the Giants thank Belt for his service, make a qualifying offer to him and get a draft pick when he signs elsewhere.

If Belt goes via trade, I do think an extension, if a team friendly one, would make him more attractive to potential buyers and net a greater return. However, if he were to prove injury prone or the extension becomes prohibitive, then the extension becomes an albatross to the team and the Giants have to make a hard decision about what to do with Belt and Posey. Maybe Belt becomes a decent left fielder (the 1st base of the outfield) and the whole thing is not a problem but I don't envy the front office making a decision on this whole issue.

 

[calsnowskier]

I don't know about the time period between when you all migrated from Disney to earlier this season when I arrived, but from what I remember from my days at the ESPN forum and these past few months, I think we all (myself included) can over rate the value a certain player carries. I wish I could remember all the times over the years one of us has argued holding on to a certain player because that player would get value in return, only to see either (A) the player gets traded and the return is lower than expected or (B) players walks or gets released and no value is returned.

To a certain extent, all players have value (besides the fact that they are human beings, but that's another forum). But to say a guy like Petit, who is a sparingly used long reliever, with a WHIP of 1.184 and an ERA of 3.67, should be retained and traded, I think, is a bit of a stretch. I think most GMs are savvy enough to realize that they can get someone of his caliber off the scrap heap (minor league free agency, waiver claim, failed minor league starter) just like we got Petit. Or do something like the Cardinals did with Carlos Villanueva, wait out the market and get someone for $2 million. Just my thoughts on the idea of retaining Petit.

I remember getting quite upset when they moved Sandoval over to 1B for a few weeks when Sandoval's arm was hurt. This displaced Ishikawa just as Ishikawa was hitting a prolonged hot-streak.

Ishi was one of the main recipients of the Jimmy-Jack treatment of Bochy and the PsTB.

Oh the complaints we had when none of us had a Giants trophy in our lifetimes and every position was basically open to competition...

 

[SFGRTB]

I don't know about the time period between when you all migrated from Disney to earlier this season when I arrived, but from what I remember from my days at the ESPN forum and these past few months, I think we all (myself included) can over rate the value a certain player carries. I wish I could remember all the times over the years one of us has argued holding on to a certain player because that player would get value in return, only to see either (A) the player gets traded and the return is lower than expected or (B) players walks or gets released and no value is returned.

To a certain extent, all players have value (besides the fact that they are human beings, but that's another forum). But to say a guy like Petit, who is a sparingly used long reliever, with a WHIP of 1.184 and an ERA of 3.67, should be retained and traded, I think, is a bit of a stretch. I think most GMs are savvy enough to realize that they can get someone of his caliber off the scrap heap (minor league free agency, waiver claim, failed minor league starter) just like we got Petit. Or do something like the Cardinals did with Carlos Villanueva, wait out the market and get someone for $2 million. Just my thoughts on the idea of retaining Petit.

I'm not expecting much, a 3rd tier prospect or 2. I won't be sad to see him go for nothing (non-tendered), I think there's a slight chance he's even on the team next year. But $2.5M is nothing (in baseball), and he was HUGE in the 2014 playoffs. If the Giants make a few other trades, they might have room to want to keep him around. Or he sticks around through the winter and gets DFA'd/traded at the end of Spring Training if there is no room for him.

Granted, if the Giants need more room on the 40 man roster to protect some guys or sign someone, I doubt they'll hesitate to non-tender him.

 

[LHG]

I remember getting quite upset when they moved Sandoval over to 1B for a few weeks when Sandoval's arm was hurt. This displaced Ishikawa just as Ishikawa was hitting a prolonged hot-streak.

Ishi was one of the main recipients of the Jimmy-Jack treatment of Bochy and the PsTB.

Oh the complaints we had when none of us had a Giants trophy in our lifetimes and every position was basically open to competition...

I completely forgot about that, and the term Jimmy-Jack as well. I cannot even remember where that came from.

But now that you mention it, I was also bothered that Bochy had done that. I was also bothered when Ishikawa was a roster causality when they decided to carry Belt over him. I thought Belt wasn't ready yet and Ishikawa deserved to be on the roster. I still think they brought Belt up too early but I am sure glad that Bochy gives the younger guys much more time to sink or swim.

 

[tzill]

Wait, did you just question Susac's ability?

Not at all. I've maintained that he'd start for 20 or so clubs in the majors. However, he's playing behind a generational talent. It's not that the Sac isn't good -- he is. It's that Posey's D is transcendent.

 

[tzill]

Again, I like Belt. He is upper mid-level.

My argument against locking him down is not a slight against Belt, but rather an acknowledgement that 1B is a safety valve position.

In a perfect world, we dont want Posey catching more than 100-110 games in '16. That means he either sits or plays 1B in those other 50-60 games (we WOULD play him at 3B, but Duffy rudely stole his spot there). Playing Belt in left is OK, but given normal injury issues in the OF this year, we already have Aoki and Byrd (potentially) as well as Blanco and Williamson/Parker. Those are a lot of quality bodies for a very limited number of PAs.

And Posey's games behind the dish will not be increasing going past '16.

Agreed in general. I think they want Buster to catch about 100 games next year. That leaves 60 for Sac. You've got to figure that means 40 games at 1B for Buster, and 20 days off. So Belt gets 120 games at 1B and maybe 20 in OF, 20 games off (maybe against tough LHP). In those 140 games, Belt is going to get about 600 PA, and if healthy will give us a 130 OPS+ and 4+ WAR.

That's worth locking down on a 4 year deal.

 

[Stokes1931]

Baggs mentioned this guy in yesterday's blog post. Looks intriguing.

Kenta Maeda Japanese Leagues Statistics & History | Baseball-Reference.com

 

[LHG]

Yet another reason I'm not a fan of bringing over Dexter Fowler. This from David Schoenfield (regarding Fowler's misplay of David Wright's double in the 1st inning of Game 2 of the NLCS):

-- Fowler could have/should have made the play. He got a bad read on it and then got twisted around and misjudged it. Overall, the Cubs are a solid defensive team, but Fowler isn't a strength; his minus-12 Defensive Runs Saved ranked fourth-worst among center fielders in 2015, and his minus-35 over the past three seasons ranks worst.

 

[calsnowskier]

It's official. Martinez signs with the Cubs.

I dont know what to think here. The Giants have so many silver ribbons on these international kids, they need to buy a bigger building to house all these ribbons. Why cant they get any of these kids?

Conversely, do they WANT to get more of these kids? Have they actually produced? Past Puig, Cespedes and Abreu, have any of these kids actually been worth the big $$ they have received? I would love to see a study of the signings over the last last 10 years or so of all international signings of more than 1M (or whatever number) to see who was a hit an who was a miss, then compare those to the American kids coming out of the draft.

I wouldnt even know where to go to collect this information...

 

[Mays-Fan]

Pretty good synopsis of our off-season situation going into 2016:

Offseason Outlook: San Francisco Giants

 

[LHG]

Pretty good synopsis of our off-season situation going into 2016:

Offseason Outlook: San Francisco Giants

It is stuff like this that leaves me scratching my head:
"While Blanco has spent a good bit of time in center over his career, defensive metrics have always preferred him in the corner — especially the last two seasons. So, there’s an argument to be made that the Giants ought to consider adding a center field-capable player, whether as an upgrade or a platoon mate/back-up plan."
"several shorter-term candidates with track records in center (such as Dexter Fowler, Colby Rasmus, Gerardo Parra, and Austin Jackson)."

To compare, in 2015, offensive and defensive WAR (with at-bats in parenthesis):
Blanco (327) 1.7 -0.9
Fowler (596) 3.5 -1.0
Rasmus (432) 2.1 -0.1
Parra (547) 2.0 -1.5
Jackson (491) 1.7 0.1

According to these, only Rasmus and Jackson are better defensively than Blanco. Offensively, only Fowler seemed to post a significantly better WAR than Blanco. Assuming that Blanco's production was consistent and got as many at-bats at the next lowest number (Jackson), his offensive WAR would be closer to 2.6. If close to Fowler's at-bats, it could be closer to 3.1.

Looking further back on defensive WAR (2013-2015), here's where they land:
Blanco 0.8, -0.6, -0.9
Fowler -0.2, -1.8, -1.0
Rasmus 1.5, -0.5, -0.1
Parra 4.0, -0.8, -1.5
Jackson 0.7, 0.5, 0.1

Interesting that all five outfielders seem to be slipping defensively the past three years, as least according to defensive WAR. Gerardo Parra is the only one that posted any kind of good defensive season among the five in the last three years, which makes his slip even more pronounced. I know that this is a very subjective tool (isn't any kind of defensive metric?) but we've got to measure them somehow defensively.

Finally, looking at the defensive WAR, here's the change from 2013 to 2015:
Blanco -1.7
Fowler -0.8
Rasmus -1.6
Parra -5.5
Jackson -0.6

Simply put, why sign any of those short term center field options (or even suggest signing them in the first place) when they would essentially replace a player with similar production, offensively and defensively?

 

[calsnowskier]

This is exactly why I completely ignore defensive metrics.

Blanco is a negative defensive WAR player? That just does not pass the sniff-test for me. The stat says (if I understand it correctly) that if he had been replaced with a "replacement level player" (whatever the eff that is), we would have better D?

Blanco may not be gold-glove quality, but he is solid out there. He has a good enough glove and has a wide range. His routes appear to be good enough and his arm, at worst, is slightly below average.

How does that equate to a negative dWAR?

 

[calsnowskier]

Apparently the Giants are going to exercise Aoki's option and decline Byrd's. Nothing official yet, though, that I have seen.

 

[SFGRTB]

Pretty good synopsis of our off-season situation going into 2016:

Offseason Outlook: San Francisco Giants

I just realized all the money we have coming off in 2016. Peavy, Pagan, Casilla, Romo, Lopez, Blanco at $48.65M. And Cain's $24M is off in 2017. Getting ahead of myself here, but before I read the rest of the article, that just popped out to me. Might soften a blow of handing out 1 huge deal to a pitcher.

 

[Mays-Fan]

Baggs mentioned this guy in yesterday's blog post. Looks intriguing.

Kenta Maeda Japanese Leagues Statistics & History | Baseball-Reference.com

Some nice numbers, for sure. But he has over 1500 IP, and he weighs 154?

I just don't think he would last very long. Can you say, Timmeh II?