2015 Rosterbation

[tzill]

OK, I'm gonna go out on a limb here, to generate some discussion if nothing else.

I like Belt as our 1B. I think we should lock him in now before he (quite likely) explodes. I'm thinking 5/40 for the years after 2015. If it's 3.6 this year, then something like:

2016 - 5.0
2017 - 6.5
2018 - 8.0
2019 - 9.5
2020 - 11.0

If he stays healthy, and stops being a freak-accident magnet, he could reasonably become an ,800+ OPS hitter, with 20-25 HRs and 90 RBI. He had a .915 OPS after the 2013 ASB, and showed he can hit playoff pitching well.

Lock him up , Sabes.

Grant had an on-point article about this yesterday:

The problem with extending Brandon Belt - McCovey Chronicles

Spoiler alert: if he's bad -- don't extend him. If he's OK -- no sense in giving big bucks to a 32 year old. If he's good -- megabucks to a player who will be 35 by the end of the contract makes no sense.

I think you go year to year until he's a FA on this one.

 

[Montalban]

Belt avoids arbitration by signing a 3.6M deal.

And the Giants officially avoid arbitration AGAIN. I don't think the Giants have ever gone to arb, have they?

With the progress he's been making, if he stays healthy, he could be ready for a big year.

 

[Mays-Fan]

Grant had an on-point article about this yesterday:

The problem with extending Brandon Belt - McCovey Chronicles

Spoiler alert: if he's bad -- don't extend him. If he's OK -- no sense in giving big bucks to a 32 year old. If he's good -- megabucks to a player who will be 35 by the end of the contract makes no sense.

I think you go year to year until he's a FA on this one.

I read that article before I wrote what I did. Grant's an entertaining writer but I often disagree with him. He does the right analysis here, but IMO, doesn't assign the proper odds to each scenario.

I think that Belt's odds of breaking out and becoming a consistent 20-25 HR guy with .800+ OPS and 85-90 RBI for several years are very good. If he continues to produce as he is trending and avoids freak injury, if we don't lock him up before he hits the FA market, the bidding will go higher than we want to go. Sure we may have some time, but IMO it would be bad judgment if we didn't sign him to a fairly lengthy extension before then.

Another factor to consider is that other than Buster, we have nobody coming up on the horizon that will compete with Belt. Belt, Buster, and Susac sharing C-1B is a good situation for us. Having just Buster and Susac is spreading us too thin. And I really like having a heady, LH 1B in the field.

I understand Grant's reasoning, but I don't think he thought it through far enough.

 

[tzill]

I read that article before I wrote what I did. Grant's an entertaining writer but I often disagree with him. He does the right analysis here, but IMO, doesn't assign the proper odds to each scenario.

I think that Belt's odds of breaking out and becoming a consistent 20-25 HR guy with .800+ OPS and 85-90 RBI for several years are very good. If he continues to produce as he is trending and avoids freak injury, if we don't lock him up before he hits the FA market, the bidding will go higher than we want to go. Sure we may have some time, but IMO it would be bad judgment if we didn't sign him to a fairly lengthy extension before then.

Another factor to consider is that other than Buster, we have nobody coming up on the horizon that will compete with Belt. Belt, Buster, and Susac sharing C-1B is a good situation for us. Having just Buster and Susac is spreading us too thin. And I really like having a heady, LH 1B in the field.

I understand Grant's reasoning, but I don't think he thought it through far enough.

1. You think the odds of Belt becoming a fringe HOF player are very good. OK, but I think you're in a pretty small minority here. I hope you're right and I'm not, but the odds of Belt putting together even two seasons like you've indicated are small, much less "several." If he was that player, he'd have done it by now. Roughly put, he'd need to make the all-star team for "several years" and have an OPS+ of 140-150. I don't see it, but I'd love to be wrong.
2. If Belt is that guy, we'll pay him. If he's not that guy and another team wants to overpay to get him, you let him walk. Those assets can be redistributed much more economically, IMO.
3. By the time Belt is ready to walk, it's impossible to say where the farm system will be. It might be full of guys ready to break into the majors at several positions. Simply put, it's too soon IMO to say "nobody coming up on the horizon will compete with Belt." That's three years from now, and who knows where we will be.

I think it'd be pretty foolish to extend him now. But here's to Brandon making me look wrong.

Again.

 

[Mays-Fan]

1. You think the odds of Belt becoming a fringe HOF player are very good. OK, but I think you're in a pretty small minority here. I hope you're right and I'm not, but the odds of Belt putting together even two seasons like you've indicated are small, much less "several." If he was that player, he'd have done it by now. Roughly put, he'd need to make the all-star team for "several years" and have an OPS+ of 140-150. I don't see it, but I'd love to be wrong.
2. If Belt is that guy, we'll pay him. If he's not that guy and another team wants to overpay to get him, you let him walk. Those assets can be redistributed much more economically, IMO.
3. By the time Belt is ready to walk, it's impossible to say where the farm system will be. It might be full of guys ready to break into the majors at several positions. Simply put, it's too soon IMO to say "nobody coming up on the horizon will compete with Belt." That's three years from now, and who knows where we will be.

I think it'd be pretty foolish to extend him now. But here's to Brandon making me look wrong.

Again.

Whoa, Counselor. I see Belt as more of a fringe All-Star, and nowhere near a fringe HOFer. And I'm not proposing to pay him any where near that kind of worth.

The kinds of numbers I'm talking about barely put him into the top ten of MLB 1B's:

2014 Regular Season MLB Baseball Batting Statistics - MLB First Basemen - Major League Baseball - ESPN

In case you hadn't noticed, $8mm a year doesn't buy much in MLB.

And check out how Belt was trending before the freak injury last year:

Brandon Belt Statistics and History | Baseball-Reference.com

Year: 2011, 2012, 2013
PA: 209, 472, 571
R: 21, 47, 76
H: 42, 113, 147
2B: 6, 27, 39
HR: 9, 7, 17
RBI: 18, 56, 67
BA: .225, .275, 289
OPS: .718, .781, .841
OPS+: 103, 123, 139
TB: 77, 173, 245

I think he is going to be better than most on this board realize. He is quite undervalued, IMHO. The kind of player we should lock up before he hits FA, or hits some REAL breakout numbers.

 

[Montalban]

Whoa, Counselor. I see Belt as more of a fringe All-Star, and nowhere near a fringe HOFer. And I'm not proposing to pay him any where near that kind of worth.

The kinds of numbers I'm talking about barely put him into the top ten of MLB 1B's:

2014 Regular Season MLB Baseball Batting Statistics - MLB First Basemen - Major League Baseball - ESPN

In case you hadn't noticed, $8mm a year doesn't buy much in MLB.

And check out how Belt was trending before the freak injury last year:

Brandon Belt Statistics and History | Baseball-Reference.com

Year: 2011, 2012, 2013
PA: 209, 472, 571
R: 21, 47, 76
H: 42, 113, 147
2B: 6, 27, 39
HR: 9, 7, 17
RBI: 18, 56, 67
BA: .225, .275, 289
OPS: .718, .781, .841
OPS+: 103, 123, 139
TB: 77, 173, 245

I think he is going to be better than most on this board realize. He is quite undervalued, IMHO. The kind of player we should lock up before he hits FA, or hits some REAL breakout numbers.

He does seems to be trending upward in every category each season and I believe would have continued to do so had he not been hurt in 2014, but the jury is clearly still out on this player. This season, if he stays healthy, should give us a pretty good read on him; especially since he is playing for a contract this year.

 

[tzill]

Whoa, Counselor. I see Belt as more of a fringe All-Star, and nowhere near a fringe HOFer. And I'm not proposing to pay him any where near that kind of worth.

The kinds of numbers I'm talking about barely put him into the top ten of MLB 1B's:

2014 Regular Season MLB Baseball Batting Statistics - MLB First Basemen - Major League Baseball - ESPN

In case you hadn't noticed, $8mm a year doesn't buy much in MLB.

And check out how Belt was trending before the freak injury last year:

Brandon Belt Statistics and History | Baseball-Reference.com

Year: 2011, 2012, 2013
PA: 209, 472, 571
R: 21, 47, 76
H: 42, 113, 147
2B: 6, 27, 39
HR: 9, 7, 17
RBI: 18, 56, 67
BA: .225, .275, 289
OPS: .718, .781, .841
OPS+: 103, 123, 139
TB: 77, 173, 245

I think he is going to be better than most on this board realize. He is quite undervalued, IMHO. The kind of player we should lock up before he hits FA, or hits some REAL breakout numbers.

Maybe we just disagree over valuation. The numbers you cited before would be All-Star numbers pretty much every year. A guy who routinely makes the ASG tends to be under serious consideration for the HOF. That's what my logic was.

As for the "barely top ten" assessment -- I disagree. Again, using the metric of 140-150 OPS+, you're talking about top 6 or so in baseball. That's an all-star.

Again, I really like BB9; I hope he's a Giant for life. But, he's just not a good extension candidate right now. If he has a real good year in 2015 then we have time to assess moving forward. If not, we are in good shape as he's under arb control for another couple years.

 

[msgkings322]

Maybe we just disagree over valuation. The numbers you cited before would be All-Star numbers pretty much every year. A guy who routinely makes the ASG tends to be under serious consideration for the HOF. That's what my logic was.

As for the "barely top ten" assessment -- I disagree. Again, using the metric of 140-150 OPS+, you're talking about top 6 or so in baseball. That's an all-star.

Again, I really like BB9; I hope he's a Giant for life. But, he's just not a good extension candidate right now. If he has a real good year in 2015 then we have time to assess moving forward. If not, we are in good shape as he's under arb control for another couple years.

Kind of with Mays on this one, the numbers he posits seem about right to me, and they are fringe allstar not solid allstar. BB9 is kind of the new JT Snow, good glove, good bat, not great. Less average, more power than JT.

We might also see Belt traded in a year or two to open first for Posey if he really doesn't want to move to 3rd. We could get some nice talent for him.

 

[calsnowskier]

Kind of with Mays on this one, the numbers he posits seem about right to me, and they are fringe allstar not solid allstar. BB9 is kind of the new JT Snow, good glove, good bat, not great. Less average, more power than JT.

We might also see Belt traded in a year or two to open first for Posey if he really doesn't want to move to 3rd. We could get some nice talent for him.

This is the key, IMHO. Belt is not good enough to lock down a position like 1B. I think he comps rather well with LaRoche. While LaRoche is good, he does not bring enough unicorn to lock him down for an extended period.

Fringy 1B are easily replaced.

 

[msgkings322]

This is the key, IMHO. Belt is not good enough to lock down a position like 1B. I think he comps rather well with LaRoche. While LaRoche is good, he does not bring enough unicorn to lock him down for an extended period.

Fringy 1B are easily replaced.

I think he's way better than fringy, he's almost allstar level, he can hold down first nicely for almost anyone. But Posey is the x factor, if we didn't have to move him somewhere Belt would be a fine long term solution at first.

 

[calsnowskier]

I think he's way better than fringy, he's almost allstar level, he can hold down first nicely for almost anyone. But Posey is the x factor, if we didn't have to move him somewhere Belt would be a fine long term solution at first.

Sorry, I MEANT "Fringy all-star 1B"...

1B is the NLs version of the DH. Basically, anyone can play it, so locking yourself into someone who ONLY plays 1B, and is not a top 5-10 bat in the game is a mistake, IMHO.

 

[Mays-Fan]

Maybe we just disagree over valuation. The numbers you cited before would be All-Star numbers pretty much every year. A guy who routinely makes the ASG tends to be under serious consideration for the HOF. That's what my logic was.

As for the "barely top ten" assessment -- I disagree. Again, using the metric of 140-150 OPS+, you're talking about top 6 or so in baseball. That's an all-star.

Again, I really like BB9; I hope he's a Giant for life. But, he's just not a good extension candidate right now. If he has a real good year in 2015 then we have time to assess moving forward. If not, we are in good shape as he's under arb control for another couple years.

Sorry, tzill, that's just flat-out incorrect. The numbers I cited before (.800+ OPS, not .850 or .900) put him 10th on the OPS list for MLB 1B last year. That is nowhere near All-Star numbers.

You then compound your error talking about "routinely making the ASG". No one said that but you.

I never used "the metric of 140-150 OPS+". Only you did.

He turns 27 in April 2015. If he stays relatively injury-free, I am predicting solid, fringe all-star numbers for Belt for the next several years, likely 5-6 prime years, possibly 8-10. If we had Brandon Belt quality players at every position, we would be more than contenders for the WSC for many years to come.

I saw a segment on MLBTV last night about the Giants next year, and they projected Belt batting cleanup, just as I did a month or so ago (R-L-R sandwiched in between Posey and Pence) . He is going to put up some pretty serious numbers next year if he stays healthy.

I am not proposing a Panda-level or a Pence-level contract for the guy. And, yeah, maybe we can wait a year because of control. But every year we wait will likely mean the price goes up. And we have no one on the horizon in an organization that is on balance wanting for hitters.

If we wait two more years, and he puts up 20/100/.850 each year in 2015-6, what do you think his agent will want? I will tell you - it's something we won't be able to afford.

Lock him up sooner rather than later.

 

[tzill]

Sorry, tzill, that's just flat-out incorrect. The numbers I cited before (.800+ OPS, not .850 or .900) put him 10th on the OPS list for MLB 1B last year. That is nowhere near All-Star numbers.

You then compound your error talking about "routinely making the ASG". No one said that but you.

I never used "the metric of 140-150 OPS+". Only you did.

He turns 27 in April 2015. If he stays relatively injury-free, I am predicting solid, fringe all-star numbers for Belt for the next several years, likely 5-6 prime years, possibly 8-10. If we had Brandon Belt quality players at every position, we would be more than contenders for the WSC for many years to come.

I saw a segment on MLBTV last night about the Giants next year, and they projected Belt batting cleanup, just as I did a month or so ago (R-L-R sandwiched in between Posey and Pence) . He is going to put up some pretty serious numbers next year if he stays healthy.

I am not proposing a Panda-level or a Pence-level contract for the guy. And, yeah, maybe we can wait a year because of control. But every year we wait will likely mean the price goes up. And we have no one on the horizon in an organization that is on balance wanting for hitters.

If we wait two more years, and he puts up 20/100/.850 each year in 2015-6, what do you think his agent will want? I will tell you - it's something we won't be able to afford.

Lock him up sooner rather than later.

As I've said before, we disagree on valuation. I took your numbers and looked at the OPS+, then I went and looked at that OPS+ for the majors over the last few years. Guys with those OPS+ numbers are all-stars. If your quibble is that you don't like/understand OPS+, then OK. We'll just have to agree to disagree.

As for every year his price going up -- that's certainly true if 1) he stays healthy and 2) he puts up, let's agree to call it "fringe all-star" numbers. He was hurt last year and the greatest predictor of future injuries is injury last season. If he puts up 20/100/850 over the next couple of years and they wait and end up having to pay $5MM more a season for an contract that runs one year longer than they could've obtained now -- I suspect they're ok with that and so am I. The trade off, as is ALWAYS the case, is downside risk of injury/nonproduction vs. upside reward of a cheaper contract than if signed later. The balances here, for me, shift toward waiting.

For you, they do not and I respect that position. You're reasoned it well.

 

[Mays-Fan]

As I've said before, we disagree on valuation. I took your numbers and looked at the OPS+, then I went and looked at that OPS+ for the majors over the last few years. Guys with those OPS+ numbers are all-stars. If your quibble is that you don't like/understand OPS+, then OK. We'll just have to agree to disagree.

As for every year his price going up -- that's certainly true if 1) he stays healthy and 2) he puts up, let's agree to call it "fringe all-star" numbers. He was hurt last year and the greatest predictor of future injuries is injury last season. If he puts up 20/100/850 over the next couple of years and they wait and end up having to pay $5MM more a season for an contract that runs one year longer than they could've obtained now -- I suspect they're ok with that and so am I. The trade off, as is ALWAYS the case, is downside risk of injury/nonproduction vs. upside reward of a cheaper contract than if signed later. The balances here, for me, shift toward waiting.

For you, they do not and I respect that position. You're reasoned it well.

I suppose another good reason not to commit on Belt may be that after 2015, there will quite a few holes to fill that will require as much flexibility as possible. At least 3 SP's (Timmy, Huddy, Vogey), 3B, LF, possibly more.

 

[GiantsPackersChamps2011]

Shields signs with the Padres. Whew. What a change for them form previous offseasons

 

[Hangman]

We got worse and older and other teams in the division got a lot better. I hope we are competitive.

 

[calsnowskier]

We got worse and older and other teams in the division got a lot better. I hope we are competitive.

The dodgers changed, but I am not convinced that they got better. We will see.

I like that the Padres are "trying", but they have decimated their farm and there OF will be fun to watch. Their pitchers will be pulling their hair out in no time.

 

[tzill]

We got worse and older and other teams in the division got a lot better. I hope we are competitive.

I'm not sure we got worse. I say this for a few reasons:
1. We will have a healthy Cain this year; the last two we did not.
2. We will have a healthy Belt this year; last year we did not.
3. We will have a full year of Susac; last year we did not.
4. We will have a full year of Panik; last year was musical chairs at 2b
5. We will have a legitimate LF; last year we did not.


Now, injury could derail everything, and we had a longer season last year than anyone (YES YES YES). However, we have the best manager in baseball, and plenty of flexibility with the roster. I'm not pessimistic.


Until they lose 24 of 30....

 

[tzill]

The dodgers changed, but I am not convinced that they got better. We will see.

I like that the Padres are "trying", but they have decimated their farm and there OF will be fun to watch. Their pitchers will be pulling their hair out in no time.

I think the Pads got MUCH better, without mortgaging the future. The way San Diego did it this offseason is textbook how it SHOULD be done. Don't overpay; wait for the right opportunity and pounce.

Imagine if we'd have gotten Small Game Jim on 4/75....is there ANYONE who'd be a hater?

Aside: we did move up in the draft since the Pads lost their #1...we are now 18.

 

[msgkings322]

I'm not sure we got worse. I say this for a few reasons:
1. We will have a healthy Cain this year; the last two we did not.
2. We will have a healthy Belt this year; last year we did not.
3. We will have a full year of Susac; last year we did not.
4. We will have a full year of Panik; last year was musical chairs at 2b
5. We will have a legitimate LF; last year we did not.


Now, injury could derail everything, and we had a longer season last year than anyone (YES YES YES). However, we have the best manager in baseball, and plenty of flexibility with the roster. I'm not pessimistic.


Until they lose 24 of 30....

6. We will have a full year of Peavy, last year we did not.

We definitely did get worse at 3B, and we lost Morse, but they are counting on the things you mentioned plus other progress like Craw getting better with the bat to make up for it.

It's an odd year, so it is what it is, we are definitely on paper good enough to get a wildcard. The division winners will likely be the Cards, Dodgers, and Nats again. WC contenders are Giants, Marlins, Cubs, Padres, Pirates. Injuries as always can make this whole thing change.

Excited for the season!