2014 Rosterbation

[calsnowskier]

Age is huge. I do not disregard it. I did not include it because it would make it too obvious that I was comparing Bronson Arroyo and Tim Lincecum. Marketability... I get what you're saying but that's no way to build a winning baseball team. Honestly, I think the Giants could've kept Lincecum and all his marketing potential if they signed him for 2 year and 22MM.

Having won CY Young awards only means that you were, at one time, good. Lincecum was fucking awesome and I actually wish he still was. He was one of my favorite non-Dodgers to watch when he was at his peak. Guess what? That means nothing now. Look at Johan. Look at RA Dickey.

The fact remains, Arroyo had empirically superior stats than Lincecum over the past two seasons. He was also playing in an extremely hitter-friendly park (compared to Lincecum in one of the most pitcher-friendly parks) and his ERA was a full run lower than Timmy's. You can not disregard that despite a 6 year age gap.

I don't know how anyone could logically look at the 2012 & 2013 numbers for those two pitchers and rationally think that one deserves 2 years 35MM, and the other deserves only 1 year for 10MM. Arroyo is old, and he's not that good.

So you are saying that Timmeh's agent came to the Giants and said "We will sign either a 2/22 or a 2/35, your choice" and the Giants decided to give him the 2/35?

I think it was more like his agent came and said "We will sign a 2/35 now, or we will not negotiate with you until February (or whatever date)." The Giants realized that they will be able make an additional 7M per year with Timmeh in the fold (or whatever number they determined) so they were REALLY only signing a 2/21.

To say that signing players with an eye towards marketing is not a good way to build a winner is accurate if it is the ONLY aspect that the team looks at. The marketing windfalls a team gains by these players can go towards scouting, farm development, MLB payroll, owners equity, etc.

Local radio has been making a decent point today. If the Giants go into ST without Lopez, another 3/4 SP or a new LFer, and they say they just didn't have the funds to fill these spots, THEN it was a bad signing. As it is, this is just the new norm.

 

[Villain]

So you are saying that Timmeh's agent came to the Giants and said "We will sign either a 2/22 or a 2/35, your choice" and the Giants decided to give him the 2/35?

I think it was more like his agent came and said "We will sign a 2/35 now, or we will not negotiate with you until February (or whatever date)." The Giants realized that they will be able make an additional 7M per year with Timmeh in the fold (or whatever number they determined) so they were REALLY only signing a 2/21.

LOL! C'mon man....

To say that signing players with an eye towards marketing is not a good way to build a winner is accurate if it is the ONLY aspect that the team looks at. The marketing windfalls a team gains by these players can go towards scouting, farm development, MLB payroll, owners equity, etc.

Local radio has been making a decent point today. If the Giants go into ST without Lopez, another 3/4 SP or a new LFer, and they say they just didn't have the funds to fill these spots, THEN it was a bad signing. As it is, this is just the new norm.

I'm just happy that you homers are happy.

 

[calsnowskier]

LOL! C'mon man....




I'm just happy that you homers are happy.

Insightful.

Thanks for the contribution.

 

[tzill]

tz, I suspect you mean Escobar, not Agosta. Agosta had a rather disappointing season in A- this year, and is no where near MLB ready. Escobar was the breakout of the Uber-Arms.

I did indeed mean Escobar. thanks for the correction.

 

[tzill]

You factor in past awards to pitcher salary?

Can't wait to see how much you're willing to pay RA Dickey and Johan Santana.

Of course it's a factor. You didn't answer regarding durability, age, FIP, or last 20 starts.

Jackass.

 

[tzill]

No, I'm saying that I posted a plethora of stats and he said "nope, not enough! need to know how many awards those guys have!"



Yeah, I posted 2 year samples of statistics. Those count as "past performance." I'm not sure what other category you're thinking these other stats belong in.

Andre Ethier, a terrible outfield defender, has a gold glove. Are you going to factor that into his next contract?

Way to misquote me, d-sack. Troll on.

 

[Villain]

Of course it's a factor. You didn't answer regarding durability, age, FIP, or last 20 starts.

Jackass.

Last 20? I had more than 20! Two years worth!

Durability...

Pitcher A: 384 innnings
Pitcher B: 404 innings

FIP:

Pitcher A: 4.18 (2012), 3.74 (2013)
Pitcher B: 4.09 (2012), 4.49 (2013)


Now stop name-calling and tell me why you think Lincecum deserves 20+ million more dollars than Arroyo.

 

[tzill]

Last 20? I had more than 20! Two years worth!

Durability...

Pitcher A: 384 innnings
Pitcher B: 404 innings

FIP:

Pitcher A: 4.18 (2012), 3.74 (2013)
Pitcher B: 4.09 (2012), 4.49 (2013)


Now stop name-calling and tell me why you think Lincecum deserves 20+ million more dollars than Arroyo.

I think you're being purposefully obtuse. If you don't understand why the last 20 starts is the relevant sample to look at Lincecum then you're either a)deliberately baiting the board or b) you just don't know much about Lincecum's season.

You cherry picked (outdated, simplistic) stats to mock the signing. Obviously, the Giants FO believes that the last 20 start Timmy is the one we will get over the next two years. If the inherited runners that he left on base had been prevented from scoring at a league average rate, his ERA the last two years would've been a full run lower each season. That is, in 2012 it would've been low 4's and this year mid 3's. In short, he's been unlucky. He's also been really bad in 2012 and the first 10 starts of 2013. It was at that point that he began to pitch to contact and study hitters and mix his pitches. In short, he's transitioned from a power pitcher to a crafty pitcher. That's an ongoing process, but the demarkation point for most observers was about June 1.

Put another way, if he ends up with a mid 3's ERA (which is supported by the FIP which is a much better stat than ERA), throws 200 innings and strikes out 200, he'll end up around 3.0 WAR. At $6MM per 1.0 WAR, he'd be getting market rate for his services.

Then, if you add in the fact that he's part of the fabric of San Francisco (and all the marketing advantage that goes with that), that he's 29 with upside, and we only have two set SPs, its pretty easy to see why this was a no brainer. Is it a risk? Sure. All contracts are a risk. Is it a huge risk? Not really, given his performance over his last 20 starts and his durability. On the downside, he could revert to 2012 Timmy and even THEN, he wouldn't be a total loss as he could become a reliever and we'd let him go/negotiate a reliever salary in 2016.

Arroyo will be a 37 yo league average pitcher, at best. Useful? sure. Upside? No. He'll likely give us 200 IP with about 125K and a 3.80 ERA (over 4 FIP). In other words, about 2.0 WAR. That's worth about 10-12MM in todays market. Could he get 2/22? Maybe. A lot depends on where Tanaka ends up. I'd expect the doyers to massively go in on the posting fee to insure exclusivity and they'll probably get him. Assuming that, Arroyo makes a lot more sense for us.

But he won't get Timmy money, nor should he.

I've got the sneaking suspicion that all this will be reduced to jackassery as you troll on.

I guess you win.

 

[Villain]

How is that cherry picking? I placed a vast (and appropraite) sample size. Plenty of stats. You just want to call me a troll, jackass, and all these other names because you're too much of a homer to admit that Lincecum was signed for more than he's worth.

Keep being abrasive, though. It's a good look.

 

[tzill]

How is that cherry picking? I placed a vast (and appropraite) sample size. Plenty of stats. You just want to call me a troll, jackass, and all these other names because you're too much of a homer to admit that Lincecum was signed for more than he's worth.

Keep being abrasive, though. It's a good look.

the demonstrated FACT that you are a jackass troll isn't negated because you keep pointing out that you're correctly labeled. As I demonstrated (and you ignored), there is a very compelling reasoning process as to why he was paid what he was paid. Your stats were incredibly simplistic and not nearly fine grained enough to properly assess his performance. This was pointed out to you (much like your epic doyer salary fail) and you ignored it.

If the Giants (or any FO) believed that he is the same pitcher that he was in 2012, then that FO wouldn't last in baseball very long. He's not that pitcher; anyone who has followed his career would know that. He's also not the Cy Timmy either. What he IS is a pitcher who projects to mid 3s ERA with 200 Ks in 200 IP. Put another way: he's the pitcher he was over his last 20 starts. That's worth $15-20MM a year in the FA market. Of course you ignored all that and went to the "you're a homer" card.

Classic trollism and classic douchebaggery.

Are you THAT pissed that Agent Ned isn't going to be able to sign him?

 

[tzill]

Ignoring Vilsack, I've been reading some salary projections for FA pitchers and here are three I'm interested in:

Nolasco 3 years, 36MM
Jiminez 3/39
Arroyo 2/24

Ubaldo seems to have the most upside, but I'm intrigued by Nolasco. I may have to switch from the Bronson to the Ricky horse at this point.

Nolasco projects to a 100-110 ERA+, 200 IP, and 2.0 WAR. If we can get him for 3/36 I'd say get him. However, SabeySabes seems to want to limit FAs from other teams to 2 years, so Arroyo might be the better fit there. Bronson projects to 90-100 ERA+, 200 IP, and 1.8 WAR.

All this is assuming we don't get in on Tanaka, which I think the Giants are going to make every effort to do. If the posting rules get changed to the top 3 teams, we might be in it with the doyer$ and spanka$$

 

[Mays-Fan]

So as of now this is what I have - my best guess:

SF Giants Payroll 2014

Numbers taken from COTS where available

Major Assumptions:

Zito gone
JLo gone
Torres gone
Mijares stays
Timmy stays
Vogey stays
Gaudin stays

--------------------------------------------------------------

Starters (5)
Timmy $17.5 fixed
Cain $20.8 fixed
Petit $1.3 (Arb-1) WAG?
Vogey $3.0 FA
Bum $3.95 fixed

# Starters Subtotal $46.55

Bullpen (7)
Affeldt $6.0 fixed
Romo $5.5 fixed
Casilla $4.5 fixed
Gaudin $2.8 FA WAG?
Mijares $2.1 arb
2 others $1.0 (Dunning/Hembree/Rosario/Kickham/Surkamp/Machi et al)

# Bullpen Subtotal $21.9

C/IF (8)

Buster $11.3 fixed
HSan $0.5 Pre-Arb
Belt $2.4 Arb-1 WAG?
Scutaro $6.7 fixed (3/20)
Craw $0.5 Pre-Arb
Panda $8.25 Fixed
Arias $1.2 Arb-2 WAG?
T. Abreu $0.7 Arb-1

# C/IF Subtotal $31.55

OF (5)

Pagan $10.25 fixed
Pence $16.0 fixed
Blanco $2.2 Arb-2 WAG?
FA (Byrd?) $10.0
Other $0.5 Pre-Arb (Peguero/Brown/Gillespie/Perez/Kieschnick)

# OF Subtotal $38.95

Zito buyout: $7.0

Prelim Total $145.95 (25 players)

 

[Sandisfan]

I was wrong about Timmy and only partly Pence

So as of now this is what I have - my best guess:

SF Giants Payroll 2014

Numbers taken from COTS where available

Major Assumptions:

Zito gone
JLo gone
Torres gone
Mijares stays
Timmy stays
Vogey stays
Gaudin stays

--------------------------------------------------------------

Starters (5)
Timmy $17.5 fixed
Cain $20.8 fixed
Petit $1.3 (Arb-1) WAG?
Vogey $3.0 FA
Bum $3.95 fixed

# Starters Subtotal $46.55

Bullpen (7)
Affeldt $6.0 fixed
Romo $5.5 fixed
Casilla $4.5 fixed
Gaudin $2.8 FA WAG?
Mijares $2.1 arb
2 others $1.0 (Dunning/Hembree/Rosario/Kickham/Surkamp/Machi et al)

# Bullpen Subtotal $21.9

C/IF (8)

Buster $11.3 fixed
HSan $0.5 Pre-Arb
Belt $2.4 Arb-1 WAG?
Scutaro $6.7 fixed (3/20)
Craw $0.5 Pre-Arb
Panda $8.25 Fixed
Arias $1.2 Arb-2 WAG?
T. Abreu $0.7 Arb-1

# C/IF Subtotal $31.55

OF (5)

Pagan $10.25 fixed
Pence $16.0 fixed
Blanco $2.2 Arb-2 WAG?
FA (Byrd?) $10.0
Other $0.5 Pre-Arb (Peguero/Brown/Gillespie/Perez/Kieschnick)

# OF Subtotal $38.95

Zito buyout: $7.0

Prelim Total $145.95 (25 players)

I thought there was a better than even chance Timmy would leave and it wouldn't surprise me if some other agents out there are shaking their heads that his agent didn't get Timmy to go out on the market because I believe someone would have gone to 20 or a bit higher for at least part of an offered contract also even though there were rumblings Pence would resign before free agency, I wasn't prepared to say it was a lock until an actual signing had been announced. I had Timmy signing for less than 20 too the Giants at about 30% and Pence at about 50% to 60% to return.

If Timmy doesn't preform like he did late in the season, last 20 games and if Cain doesn't (It's AND) return to his previous level that lineup looks pretty meh. If they pickup a free agent outfielder like Mavs-Fan has laid out that free agent pick up needs to surprise, if he's not a high end player, coming in like Melky did the previous year to give that lineup some respectability.

With that lineup I think "we" stay in the race for the wild card for about two thirds of the season and the Giants could well fall out of contention the last two months.

 

[tzill]

So as of now this is what I have - my best guess:

SF Giants Payroll 2014

Numbers taken from COTS where available

Major Assumptions:

Zito gone
JLo gone
Torres gone
Mijares stays
Timmy stays
Vogey stays
Gaudin stays

--------------------------------------------------------------

Starters (5)
Timmy $17.5 fixed
Cain $20.8 fixed
Petit $1.3 (Arb-1) WAG?
Vogey $3.0 FA
Bum $3.95 fixed

# Starters Subtotal $46.55

Bullpen (7)
Affeldt $6.0 fixed
Romo $5.5 fixed
Casilla $4.5 fixed
Gaudin $2.8 FA WAG?
Mijares $2.1 arb
2 others $1.0 (Dunning/Hembree/Rosario/Kickham/Surkamp/Machi et al)

# Bullpen Subtotal $21.9

C/IF (8)

Buster $11.3 fixed
HSan $0.5 Pre-Arb
Belt $2.4 Arb-1 WAG?
Scutaro $6.7 fixed (3/20)
Craw $0.5 Pre-Arb
Panda $8.25 Fixed
Arias $1.2 Arb-2 WAG?
T. Abreu $0.7 Arb-1

# C/IF Subtotal $31.55

OF (5)

Pagan $10.25 fixed
Pence $16.0 fixed
Blanco $2.2 Arb-2 WAG?
FA (Byrd?) $10.0
Other $0.5 Pre-Arb (Peguero/Brown/Gillespie/Perez/Kieschnick)

# OF Subtotal $38.95

Zito buyout: $7.0

Prelim Total $145.95 (25 players)

I'm pretty close to this in my thinking. However, I don't see the Gs going into the season with both Tron and BiggieSmalls [Petit] in the rotation unless someone is hurt. So I'd delete Tron and add Arroyo or Nolasco (about 12MM). I also think JLo is back (about 6MM), and I wouldn't be shocked if we got a LH power hitter to platoon in LF with Shark. Adding it all up: subtract 3 for Tron, add 12 for Nolasco, add 6 for JLo, subtract 2.8 for Grope, subtract 10MM FA in LF, add 6MM for platoon player. I come out at about $154MM

SP: Bum/Cain/Freak/Ricky/Smalls
RP: Romo/KCya/JA/JLo/Mijares/Hembree/Dunning
C: Buster/Hacktor
IF: BB9/Scoots/Stamos/Panda/Kobe/Abreu
OF: Herk/Oxy/FA/Shark/JCP

 

[tzill]

I thought there was a better than even chance Timmy would leave and it wouldn't surprise me if some other agents out there are shaking their heads that his agent didn't get Timmy to go out on the market because I believe someone would have gone to 20 or a bit higher for at least part of an offered contract also even though there were rumblings Pence would resign before free agency, I wasn't prepared to say it was a lock until an actual signing had been announced. I had Timmy signing for less than 20 too the Giants at about 30% and Pence at about 50% to 60% to return.

If Timmy doesn't preform like he did late in the season, last 20 games and if Cain doesn't (It's AND) return to his previous level that lineup looks pretty meh. If they pickup a free agent outfielder like Mavs-Fan has laid out that free agent pick up needs to surprise, if he's not a high end player, coming in like Melky did the previous year to give that lineup some respectability.

With that lineup I think "we" stay in the race for the wild card for about two thirds of the season and the Giants could well fall out of contention the last two months.

Good post. Another thought on the LF situation: Whoever we pick up is likely to bat seventh. Not a huge run producing spot in a typical NL lineup. I'd love Choo, but that simply isn't reasonable. All the other FA OF have warts (assuming the red$ux re-sign Ellsbury) and I'd be hesitant to commit too much salary to essentially a #7 hitter. With Oxy/Scoots/BB9/Buster/Panda/Herk in front and Stamos in the 8 hole, I just don't see LF as a huge weakness. As the playoffs have pointed out, it isn't your #7 hitter that's critical, it's the SP and the bully.

If we go huge this offseason, I hope its for Tanaka and not Choo is all I'm saying. And, I'd be OK with Nolasco and Ruggiano.

 

[Mays-Fan]

I thought there was a better than even chance Timmy would leave and it wouldn't surprise me if some other agents out there are shaking their heads that his agent didn't get Timmy to go out on the market because I believe someone would have gone to 20 or a bit higher for at least part of an offered contract also even though there were rumblings Pence would resign before free agency, I wasn't prepared to say it was a lock until an actual signing had been announced. I had Timmy signing for less than 20 too the Giants at about 30% and Pence at about 50% to 60% to return.

If Timmy doesn't preform like he did late in the season, last 20 games and if Cain doesn't (It's AND) return to his previous level that lineup looks pretty meh. If they pickup a free agent outfielder like Mavs-Fan has laid out that free agent pick up needs to surprise, if he's not a high end player, coming in like Melky did the previous year to give that lineup some respectability.

With that lineup I think "we" stay in the race for the wild card for about two thirds of the season and the Giants could well fall out of contention the last two months.

LOL. I totally agree, but when I stated as much a month or two ago in another thread, I was charged with the crime of pantshattery.

We have about 8 or 10 coinflips coming up this year in terms of individual performance. The more that come up heads, the deeper we go. We pretty much need them all to contend for the WS. I'm guessing we will fade in September, but I'm willing to take it game by game.

 

[SFGRTB]

Looking at the market, some guys I think we are likely to target given the financial situation, and draft compensations, will include Nate McLouth, Michael Morse for LF, Bronson Arroyo, Tanaka, and Dan Haren as starting pitching options.

McLouth could get a 2/10 deal, Morse 1/3, Arroyo 2/25, Haren 1/7 (with an option). I don't really know how to ballpark a number on Tanaka, but he'd be the most expensive of the group. None of these guys cost draft picks.

I could easily see McLouth/Haren signings. McLouth would be a solid LF option, though Blanco isn't a great platoon partner with McLouth, so we might need to find another right handed bat out there to be the 5th OF. Pill could be that guy, if he gets some reps in LF this offseason and Spring. Haren has said that he wants to pitch on a west coast team if the offer presents itself, because his family is closer. His peripheral stats suggested he was better than is ERA suggested, he still doesn't walk anybody, his strikeout rates remain the same he just gave up too many long balls. He's a bargain at the back-end of the rotation.

 

[Villain]

Quick question for tZill:

Who deserves 35MM over 2 years? Bronson Arroyo or Tim Lincecum?

 

[tzill]

Quick question for tZill:

Who deserves 35MM over 2 years? Bronson Arroyo or Tim Lincecum?

You just won't stop trolling, will you? I've addressed the Timmy contract in detail. You ignored it.

 

[Villain]

You just won't stop trolling, will you? I've addressed the Timmy contract in detail. You ignored it.

I'm not trolling you. I asked you a straight up question and never got a straight up answer. All you do is respond like I'm coming at you with personal attacks when in reality I've only posted stats. First, not enough to your liking so I got more. Those still weren't good enough but you have the names of player a and b so you can do your own homework.

I don't know why you can't admit that 2 years for 17 and 18 million is an overpay. It's not like it was something you did wrong - sometimes your own team makes mistakes, bro. I get mad at my own team all the team. Look at Brandon League's joke of a contract. That was a mistake instantly. Ethiers' as well (though I didn't realize it at the time). I'm pretty sure the Dodger fans on this board get more annoying with my critical eye than you do.

For some reason you think I'm just here to start shit. In reality, I'm just talking baseball. Since I'm a Dodger fan, maybe you think it's my MO to come in and be a shithead, but I'm not. Granted, I'm being critical of Lincecum's deal (because it is an overpay), but come on, that's not too hard to see.

You do realize that it's possible for opposing fans to talk sports without personal attacks, right (despite the countless attacks you've made at me)?