2014 Rosterbation

[Mays-Fan]

My best guess is that the rotation will shape up like this:

1. Bum
2. Cain
3. Santana
4. Timmy
5. Petit/Tron/Kamp/Kick

Whichever three don't break camp go to Fresno and become #6, #7, and #8. Also, Tron will be renegotiated down to about $2.5MM plus incentives that allow him to get $6.0MM if he makes 30+ starts.

I'm not sure of the real answer here which is why I'm asking, but according to COTS:

Ryan Vogelsong rhp
2 years/$8.3M (2012-13), plus 2014 option

2 years (2012-13), plus 2014 club option
signed extension with San Francisco 1/12/12 (avoided arbitration)
12:$3M, 13:$5M, 14:$6.5M club option ($0.3M buyout)
performance bonuses in 2012-13: $50,000 each for 180, 185, 190 IP. $75,000 for 195, 200 IP

Per the underlined, doesn't that mean the FO is locked into paying him $6.5 mm in 2014 if they decide to go with him? Unless maybe they buy him out at $300k, and let him go FA, and hope to re-sign him cheaper? I'm not sure how that works.

 

[VASFfan]

My best guess is that the rotation will shape up like this:

1. Bum
2. Cain
3. Santana
4. Timmy
5. Petit/Tron/Kamp/Kick

Whichever three don't break camp go to Fresno and become #6, #7, and #8. Also, Tron will be renegotiated down to about $2.5MM plus incentives that allow him to get $6.0MM if he makes 30+ starts.

Bullpen will be:

C Romo
SU: KCya, JA
Mid: Dunning, JLo
Long: Grope, Mijares

With Hembree, Machi in Fresno near the phone.

C/IF

C Buster, Chez3
IF BB9, Moped, Stamos, Panda, Kobe, Abreu

With Panik and Adrianza knocking on the door; Monell and the Susser in Fresno with Pill

OF

Herk, Oxy, FA, Shark, Kiesh

With JCP, Peggs in Fresno.

I believe I read the other day that Monell could potentially leave as a 6-year free agent and that Adrianza and Peguero will be out of options if they don't go to SF next year.

 

[calsnowskier]

I believe I read the other day that Monell could potentially leave as a 6-year free agent and that Adrianza and Peguero will be out of options if they don't go to SF next year.

You are right about Pegs and Adrianza. However, the 6-year FA thing is moot if the player is on the 40-man.

 

[tzill]

That would be top of the mark for me just because I'm still not sure he can last without going to the bull pen as a swing guy and secret weapon as he was used in the most recent world series run. The draft pick loss will be a pretty big deterrent... so much so I believe it will result in fewer big Free agent signings and will put the league in line for a big strike at the next contract negotiation.

Although it's not inconceivable that the deep pockets of the Cubs or the Mets who are exempt could make an expensive run knowing there is limited competition to pay Timmy plus Seattle has been known to occasionally put up big money and they are exempt.

In retrospect (I was for tanking just a bit) losing 3 more games would have made it possible for the Giants to have more flexibility with an exemption to giving up a 1st rounder for signing a free agent (ten worst records exempt).

Just to point out -- no club is "exempt." Bottom ten clubs lose their second round pick; all other clubs lose their first rounder.

 

[tzill]

I'm not sure of the real answer here which is why I'm asking, but according to COTS:

Ryan Vogelsong rhp
2 years/$8.3M (2012-13), plus 2014 option

2 years (2012-13), plus 2014 club option
signed extension with San Francisco 1/12/12 (avoided arbitration)
12:$3M, 13:$5M, 14:$6.5M club option ($0.3M buyout)
performance bonuses in 2012-13: $50,000 each for 180, 185, 190 IP. $75,000 for 195, 200 IP

Per the underlined, doesn't that mean the FO is locked into paying him $6.5 mm in 2014 if they decide to go with him? Unless maybe they buy him out at $300k, and let him go FA, and hope to re-sign him cheaper? I'm not sure how that works.

It's a good question. My understanding is that the FO could approach Tron and say "hey, we're not going to pick up your option, but we'd like to bring you back on a deal for $2.5 with incentives to get to $6.5 based on games started/innings pitched. If you'd rather be a FA we can buy you out at 300k." Then Tron could decide. If he takes the deal, his old deal is void.

 

[VASFfan]

You are right about Pegs and Adrianza. However, the 6-year FA thing is moot if the player is on the 40-man.

So assuming the Giants probably have only room for 1 minor league catcher on the 40, that could be Monell and the 6 year free agent issue would be irrelevant. I assume that since he was only drafted in 2011, Susac isn't on some clock that would require he be put on the 40 already.

 

[calsnowskier]

Susac does not need to be protected from the Rule V draft until after the '15 season, so he will not be added the 40 this off-season.

This does not necessarily mean Monell is safe, though. The Giants MAY sign or trade for a better option at #3 catcher. I do not expect this, but it is possible. They might also run into a roster crunch and need the 40-spot for another position.

 

[Mays-Fan]

It's a good question. My understanding is that the FO could approach Tron and say "hey, we're not going to pick up your option, but we'd like to bring you back on a deal for $2.5 with incentives to get to $6.5 based on games started/innings pitched. If you'd rather be a FA we can buy you out at 300k." Then Tron could decide. If he takes the deal, his old deal is void.

My very uneducated guess is that such an offer would be illegal. Otherwise, why have that option clause in the existing contract in the first place? It would seem the union would bristle at such a counter-offer, because it would make the existing contract meaningless if the FO could simply ignore it and do what they wanted to do anyway.

But that is simply a naive guess on my part. Marco? Tzill? Bueller?

 

[MarcoPolo]

It's legal. I'm trying to remember the last time it happened, and I can't.

The team is perfectly in their right to decline the option, making Vogelsong a FA.

Vogelsong is able to accept a new contract from any team after becoming a FA.

I bet that Vogelsong could get more than $2.5M on the open market, though.

 

[tzill]

It's legal. I'm trying to remember the last time it happened, and I can't.

The team is perfectly in their right to decline the option, making Vogelsong a FA.

Vogelsong is able to accept a new contract from any team after becoming a FA.

I bet that Vogelsong could get more than $2.5M on the open market, though.

Maybe, but could he get more than $2.5 with incentives to earn $6.5 AND get to stay in the org that he's comfortable with?

 

[SFGRTB]

New rumor making its round.

Giants sign Jose Danial Abreu.

Trade for David Price in a package involving Brandon Belt.

 

[tzill]

New rumor making its round.

Giants sign Jose Danial Abreu.

Trade for David Price in a package involving Brandon Belt.

hmmmm...doubtless they'll want Crick or Blackburn as well. Let's say it's Blackburn and BB9 for Price. Price will probably sign a 2/35 deal to buy out his arb years.

We'd have:

SP: Bum/Cain/Price/Timmy/(Petit,Tron,Grope,Kick,Kamp)
RP: Romo/JA/KCya/JLo/Hembree/Mijares/(Petit, Tron, Grope, Kick, Kamp)
Starters: Oxy/Scoots/Buster/Panda/Herk/FA LF/JDAbreu/Stamos
Bench: Arias/Abreu/Chez3/Shark/JCP

 

[SFGRTB]

hmmmm...doubtless they'll want Crick or Blackburn as well. Let's say it's Blackburn and BB9 for Price. Price will probably sign a 2/35 deal to buy out his arb years.

We'd have:

SP: Bum/Cain/Price/Timmy/(Petit,Tron,Grope,Kick,Kamp)
RP: Romo/JA/KCya/JLo/Hembree/Mijares/(Petit, Tron, Grope, Kick, Kamp)
Starters: Oxy/Scoots/Buster/Panda/Herk/FA LF/JDAbreu/Stamos
Bench: Arias/Abreu/Chez3/Shark/JCP

It's intriguing to say the least. From an on-paper stand point, I would say do it. Price for Belt, Crick, Panik maybe. Sign DeJesus/Granderson for LF. That would be a team to compete with, and one of the best top-3 SP in baseball. On paper.

In reality, it's hard to see the Giants trading Belt after a breakout like that, given how much the team has invested in him and he's a fan favorite. It would be real tough to see him go. And the Rays' asking price will be high, and we are likely going up against the D-Backs who hold one of the top pitching prospects in baseball and still have depth after that.

If there is a way to get Price while holding onto Belt, I would do it though. That would send a message that we aren't about to lay down. At the same time, you don't want to burn the future. We have pitching depth down there though, I'm sure it will be used a bit this offseason.

 

[Reefer]

It's intriguing to say the least. From an on-paper stand point, I would say do it. Price for Belt, Crick, Panik maybe. Sign DeJesus/Granderson for LF. That would be a team to compete with, and one of the best top-3 SP in baseball. On paper.

In reality, it's hard to see the Giants trading Belt after a breakout like that, given how much the team has invested in him and he's a fan favorite. It would be real tough to see him go. And the Rays' asking price will be high, and we are likely going up against the D-Backs who hold one of the top pitching prospects in baseball and still have depth after that.

If there is a way to get Price while holding onto Belt, I would do it though. That would send a message that we aren't about to lay down. At the same time, you don't want to burn the future. We have pitching depth down there though, I'm sure it will be used a bit this offseason.

I think it would be tough to get price without Belt, for a few reasons. The Rays will need to replace Loney, who probably will get a decent FA deal, (13HR 75 RBI, solid D), they don't have anyone in their system to replace the production at 1B. I've read they will likely get offers involving multiple high end prospects, not surprising considering Price's age, track record and team control for two more years. I would think Belt and Crick would be the minimum to get involved in the talks, but I doubt the Giants would be willing or maybe even able to give the Rays the best deal. The Cardinals, just a scenario, could offer Tavares, Adams and Gast, or Rosenthal, or Lynn, really a number of scenarios. I'd love to get Price and would give up Belt and Crick, I just don't think its realistic. But hey, stranger things have happened. I would think if they were gonna make a big splash for a SP, they would go for Tanaka.

 

[MarcoPolo]

I would think if they were gonna make a big splash for a SP, they would go for Tanaka.

<comedic relief>

Isn't Isuro "Kamikazi" Tanaka a bit old to still be playing in the 'major leagues' ??

</comedic relief>

 

[SFGRTB]

I think it would be tough to get price without Belt, for a few reasons. The Rays will need to replace Loney, who probably will get a decent FA deal, (13HR 75 RBI, solid D), they don't have anyone in their system to replace the production at 1B. I've read they will likely get offers involving multiple high end prospects, not surprising considering Price's age, track record and team control for two more years. I would think Belt and Crick would be the minimum to get involved in the talks, but I doubt the Giants would be willing or maybe even able to give the Rays the best deal. The Cardinals, just a scenario, could offer Tavares, Adams and Gast, or Rosenthal, or Lynn, really a number of scenarios. I'd love to get Price and would give up Belt and Crick, I just don't think its realistic. But hey, stranger things have happened. I would think if they were gonna make a big splash for a SP, they would go for Tanaka.

Agreed, it's a nice thought but the Giants probably don't have enough to get it done, compared to other teams out there (Cards, D-Backs, Rangers).

Also, Belt isn't even the type of player the Rays like. Being that he's a super 2, his days of being cheap are over.

 

[Sandisfan]

I don't know if the speculation about Timmy

going to Seattle has any basis or if someone is pulling it out of their *ss.

Question is what would do you think the Giants would or should do if Timmy does leave. I am very much against spending money just to spend money because in the past we have been killed in deals like Aaron Rowand or Dave Roberts and the same goes for any pitcher we pick up, they had better be very sure that it will work out plus there may not be anyone worth going after taking into account the money angle as it impacts the Giants own internal salary cap.

 

[SFGRTB]

(Credit tzill for the template)

Under contract:
Cain 20.8
Lincecum 17.5
Pence 16.0
Pagan 10.3
Scutaro 6.7
Affeldt 6.0
Sandoval 8.3
Casilla 4.5
Posey 11.3
Romo 5.5
Bumgarner 4.0
Crawford 0.6
Sanchez 0.6

Total: 13 players @ $112.1MM

Minor League Options (guys who will earn the league min if they make Opening Day roster):

Dunning
Kontos
Hembree
Moscoso
Rosario
Machi
Kickham
Surkamp
Pill (out of options)
Noonan
Adrianza
Kieschnick
Peguero
Perez

Arbitration eligible and estimated 2014 salaries:
Mijares 2.1
Blanco 2.2
Arias 1.2
Belt 2.4
Abreu 0.7
Petit 1.3

Options:
Zito 18MM (7.5 buyout)
Vogelson 6.5MM (0.3 buyout)

Free agents
Lopez
Gaudin


SP: Bum/Cain/Lincecum/(open)/(open)
RP: Romo/KCya/JA/(open)/(open)/(open)/(open)
C: Buster/Chez3
IF: BB9/Moped/Stamos/Panda/(open)/(open)
OF: Herk/Oxy/(open)/(open)/(open)

All these guys are pretty much a given, the 13 under contract + Belt. That put's the total at $114.5MM for 14 guys. 11 spots to fill.

Lopez+ 3 of Hembree, Dunning, Kickham, Kontos, Machi, Rosario will fill out the bullpen. I predict Lopez gets a 2 year-$12MM deal so between Lopez and the 3 minor league guys it's $7.5MM putting the total at $122MM with 7 spots to fill.

IF bench can be filled with Pill and Abreu for around $1.5MM putting the total at $123.5MM with 5 spots to fill.

In the outfield, Blanco is likely to return as a 4th OFer and a minor leaguer/minor league FA can fill the 5th OF spot in Spring Training, adding $2.7MM, bringing the total to $126.2MM for 3 spots.

Volgey seems like a prime candidate to have his contract "re-worked" in a way. Giants could decline his option and resign him to a cheaper base-deal where incentives get him back up to his $6.5MM salary, maybe even exceeding it to sweeten the deal.

Giants 2013 salary commitments was about $137MM, and they are likely to bump that up a little for a LFer. It's looking like we may have around $15-20MM in 2014 salaries to find a LFer and 2 starting pitchers.

 

[calsnowskier]

Little to no chance that they non-tender Arias. He is near-MLB-starter quality. You HAVE to figure him as the primary util IF.

Petit I think gets a SERIOUS look at the #4/#5 slot.

 

[SFGRTB]

Little to no chance that they non-tender Arias. He is near-MLB-starter quality. You HAVE to figure him as the primary util IF.

Petit I think gets a SERIOUS look at the #4/#5 slot.

Meant to type Arias, but was looking at Abreu. He is a lock.

Pill can help his stock by becoming a reliable OF option. Hope he can get some reps there.