2014 Rosterbation

[SFGRTB]

I wouldn't say Volgy is a lock for his $6.5MM contract next year. It seems very likely he's back, but his modest $300K buyout could let the Giants look elsewhere...

Also, Pence's deal has been setup so he earns $16MM in 2014 and $18.5MM in 2015-18.

 

[Mays-Fan]

I wouldn't say Volgy is a lock for his $6.5MM contract next year. It seems very likely he's back, but his modest $300K buyout could let the Giants look elsewhere...

Also, Pence's deal has been setup so he earns $16MM in 2014 and $18.5MM in 2015-18.

Agreed re Vogey. And who knows about Timmy - what the cost would be or even if he'll be here. And thank you for the details on Pence's contract - I will adjust.

The FA OF I'd like to see them target is Marlon Byrd. Good RHH power, won't hurt us with the glove, and he'd make a nice platoon with Blanco. And he wouldn't take $10mm (hopefully!) - we could re budget elsewhere.

 

[notmyfault]

Agreed re Vogey. And who knows about Timmy - what the cost would be or even if he'll be here. And thank you for the details on Pence's contract - I will adjust.

The FA OF I'd like to see them target is Marlon Byrd. Good RHH power, won't hurt us with the glove, and he'd make a nice platoon with Blanco. And he wouldn't take $10mm (hopefully!) - we could re budget elsewhere.

Byrd will get a starting gig somewhere. He had a nice season.

 

[sfsportsfan]

no platoons in LF, especially ones that involve Blanco. He's a nice 4th outfielder, but we need a real bat in left.

 

[Sandisfan]

With Timmy's occasional brilliance I can't see an agent telling him he should take a cut in pay. The only way I see him taking less than what he got this year is if no one signs him until very late maybe after spring training starts.

I don't see him as a 20 million dollar pitcher because the last 2 years he wasn't a 20 million dollar pitcher based on his full season pitching performance.

My guess is that some one will pay him right near 20 million... Question when was the last time a starting pitcher that had Cy young awards has taken a pay cut when that pitcher hasn't been cut from a team or was below 30 years of age.... It may have happened but I can't think of a pitcher that has a record in the past like Timmy to take a backward step in pay ....If you have an example that can in anyway correlate with Timmy I would appreciate your input.

 

[Mays-Fan]

no platoons in LF, especially ones that involve Blanco. He's a nice 4th outfielder, but we need a real bat in left.

Byrd will get a starting gig somewhere. He had a nice season.

Actually, I agree with both of you. I'd be OK with offering Byrd like 2/18, perhaps 2/20. And make him our full-time starter.

 

[calsnowskier]

Byrd and Morse should both get some attention from the Giants this off season. Also Beltran, Cruz, Hart, Davis, Granderson, McClouth, Murphy with 1B Morneau, Napoli and Abreu getting looks as well.

Of course, anyone with a QO gets removed from the G's interest list.

 

[calsnowskier]

With Timmy's occasional brilliance I can't see an agent telling him he should take a cut in pay. The only way I see him taking less than what he got this year is if no one signs him until very late maybe after spring training starts.

I don't see him as a 20 million dollar pitcher because the last 2 years he wasn't a 20 million dollar pitcher based on his full season pitching performance.

My guess is that some one will pay him right near 20 million... Question when was the last time a starting pitcher that had Cy young awards has taken a pay cut when that pitcher hasn't been cut from a team or was below 30 years of age.... It may have happened but I can't think of a pitcher that has a record in the past like Timmy to take a backward step in pay ....If you have an example that can in anyway correlate with Timmy I would appreciate your input.

If some teams wants to take Timmeh at 18M or 19M, more power to them. I just hope that team is not the Giants.

I SERIOUSLY doubt it will take that much to secure his services. Statistically, he was the WORST SP in MLB in '12 and he was just average in '14. He has lost 5-6 MPH from his FB since his CY years, and hitters are not swinging at his junk anymore because of that. I think the Giants should be able to get him for 3/35 or 3/40. Only Seattle will have interest at that price point, so I would not be surprised to see them step in and take him from us.

 

[MarcoPolo]

Byrd and Morse should both get some attention from the Giants this off season. Also Beltran, Cruz, Hart, Davis, Granderson, McClouth, Murphy with 1B Morneau, Napoli and Abreu getting looks as well.

Of course, anyone with a QO gets removed from the G's interest list.

Yup. With Pence's burst of offensive prowess in Sep, the Giants finished as the 13th worst team in the MLB - so they can lose their draft pick. Had they blown just 3 more games, they would be picking 8th next year.

 

[Mays-Fan]

SF Giants Payroll 2014

Numbers taken from COTS where available

Major Assumptions:
Zito gone
JLo gone
Mijares gone
Timmy stays
Vogey stays
Gaudin stays

--------------------------------------------------------------

Starters (5)
Timmy $15.0 FA (2/30?) WAG?
Cain $20.8 fixed
Petit $1.0 (Arb-1) WAG?
Vogey $6.5 fixed
Bum $3.95 fixed

# Starters Subtotal $47.25

Bullpen (7)
Affeldt $6.0 fixed
Romo $5.5 fixed
Casilla $4.5 fixed
Gaudin $2.5 FA WAG?
3 others $1.5 (Dunning/Hembree/Bochy/Rosario/Kickham/et al)

# Bullpen Subtotal $20.0

C/IF (8)

Buster $11.3 fixed
HSan $0.5 Pre-Arb
Belt $3.0 Arb-1 WAG?
Scutaro $6.7 fixed (3/20)
Craw $0.5 Pre-Arb
Panda $8.25 Fixed
Arias $1.2 Arb-2 WAG?
T. Abreu $1.0 Arb-1

# C/IF Subtotal $32.45

OF (5)

Pagan $10.25 fixed
Pence $16.0 fixed
Blanco $1.8 Arb-2 WAG?
FA (Byrd?) $10.0
Other $0.5 Pre-Arb (Peguero/Brown/Gillespie/Perez/Kieschnick)

# OF Subtotal $38.55

Zito buyout: $7.0

Prelim Total $145.25 (25 players)

 

[SFGRTB]

SF Giants Payroll 2014

Numbers taken from COTS where available

Major Assumptions:
Zito gone
JLo gone
Mijares gone
Timmy stays
Vogey stays
Gaudin stays

--------------------------------------------------------------

Starters (5)
Timmy $15.0 FA (2/30?) WAG?
Cain $20.8 fixed
Petit $1.0 (Arb-1) WAG?
Vogey $6.5 fixed
Bum $3.95 fixed

# Starters Subtotal $47.25

Bullpen (7)
Affeldt $6.0 fixed
Romo $5.5 fixed
Casilla $4.5 fixed
Gaudin $2.5 FA WAG?
3 others $1.5 (Dunning/Hembree/Bochy/Rosario/Kickham/et al)

# Bullpen Subtotal $20.0

C/IF (8)

Buster $11.3 fixed
HSan $0.5 Pre-Arb
Belt $3.0 Arb-1 WAG?
Scutaro $6.7 fixed (3/20)
Craw $0.5 Pre-Arb
Panda $8.25 Fixed
Arias $1.2 Arb-2 WAG?
T. Abreu $1.0 Arb-1

# C/IF Subtotal $32.45

OF (5)

Pagan $10.25 fixed
Pence $16.0 fixed
Blanco $1.8 Arb-2 WAG?
FA (Byrd?) $10.0
Other $0.5 Pre-Arb (Peguero/Brown/Gillespie/Perez/Kieschnick)

# OF Subtotal $38.55

Zito buyout: $7.0

Prelim Total $145.25 (25 players)

Should we be counting Zito's $7MM buyout with payroll?

Looking at that, we need another lefty out of the Pen. Affeldt isn't durable/consistent enough to be trusted as the only lefty in the Pen. Our options after that? Kickham? Internally there isn't much there (yet!). But it's tough to say Lopez is coming back given our needs elsewhere.

 

[Reefer]

SF Giants Payroll 2014

Numbers taken from COTS where available

Major Assumptions:
Zito gone
JLo gone
Mijares gone
Timmy stays
Vogey stays
Gaudin stays

--------------------------------------------------------------

Starters (5)
Timmy $15.0 FA (2/30?) WAG?
Cain $20.8 fixed
Petit $1.0 (Arb-1) WAG?
Vogey $6.5 fixed
Bum $3.95 fixed

# Starters Subtotal $47.25

Bullpen (7)
Affeldt $6.0 fixed
Romo $5.5 fixed
Casilla $4.5 fixed
Gaudin $2.5 FA WAG?
3 others $1.5 (Dunning/Hembree/Bochy/Rosario/Kickham/et al)

# Bullpen Subtotal $20.0

C/IF (8)

Buster $11.3 fixed
HSan $0.5 Pre-Arb
Belt $3.0 Arb-1 WAG?
Scutaro $6.7 fixed (3/20)
Craw $0.5 Pre-Arb
Panda $8.25 Fixed
Arias $1.2 Arb-2 WAG?
T. Abreu $1.0 Arb-1

# C/IF Subtotal $32.45

OF (5)

Pagan $10.25 fixed
Pence $16.0 fixed
Blanco $1.8 Arb-2 WAG?
FA (Byrd?) $10.0
Other $0.5 Pre-Arb (Peguero/Brown/Gillespie/Perez/Kieschnick)

# OF Subtotal $38.55

Zito buyout: $7.0

Prelim Total $145.25 (25 players)

I really hope we don't end up having a rotation with Petit being counted on to fill one of the 5 spots. I'd be ok with him being the 6th man, first up from Fresno or long relief, but we need a #3, Timmy #4 and Vogey #5. I think Sabean knows that and I'd be surprised if they don't acquire someone even if the excercise Vogey's option and re sign Timmy. I'd definitely be against signing Byrd, he's 36 and is not going to be worth whatever deal he gets coming of what is arguably the best season of his career. I think its likely SP comes through FA and we get an LF/1B through trade.

Also I think Lopez comes back, its gonna be tough to replace him, he wants to be here and if it costs an extra million or 2 they'll regret not giving it to him. I'd do another 2 year 8-10mil.

 

[MarcoPolo]

I'm surprised that no-one has mentioned Surkamp.

 

[Mays-Fan]

I'm surprised that no-one has mentioned Surkamp.

True. He's in my "et al" in the bullpen. I think Machi stays with the 25 almost for sure. I had forgot him as well.

 

[MarcoPolo]

True. He's in my "et al" in the bullpen. I think Machi stays with the 25 almost for sure. I had forgot him as well.

I'd hate to waste his service time in the 'pen (unless it's absolutely necessary). Based on his numbers in the minors his last 3 seasons, he could be a solid middle-of-the-rotation guy. I'd be OK with the Giants signing "someone" (Gaudin/FA scrap) to be the #5 guy, and if Surkamp dazzles again in Fresno, call him up in late june and he replaces whoever is sucking in the rotation at the time.

 

[tzill]

If some teams wants to take Timmeh at 18M or 19M, more power to them. I just hope that team is not the Giants.

I SERIOUSLY doubt it will take that much to secure his services. Statistically, he was the WORST SP in MLB in '12 and he was just average in '14. He has lost 5-6 MPH from his FB since his CY years, and hitters are not swinging at his junk anymore because of that. I think the Giants should be able to get him for 3/35 or 3/40. Only Seattle will have interest at that price point, so I would not be surprised to see them step in and take him from us.

It would actually cost Seattle (or any team) more than just the contract. Once the QO is extended, other teams give up either a first or second rounder to sign Timmy.

He'll be back with the Giants. My guess is 3/40.

 

[tzill]

SF Giants Payroll 2014

Numbers taken from COTS where available

Major Assumptions:
Zito gone
JLo gone
Mijares gone
Timmy stays
Vogey stays
Gaudin stays

--------------------------------------------------------------

Starters (5)
Timmy $15.0 FA (2/30?) WAG?
Cain $20.8 fixed
Petit $1.0 (Arb-1) WAG?
Vogey $6.5 fixed
Bum $3.95 fixed

# Starters Subtotal $47.25

Bullpen (7)
Affeldt $6.0 fixed
Romo $5.5 fixed
Casilla $4.5 fixed
Gaudin $2.5 FA WAG?
3 others $1.5 (Dunning/Hembree/Bochy/Rosario/Kickham/et al)

# Bullpen Subtotal $20.0

C/IF (8)

Buster $11.3 fixed
HSan $0.5 Pre-Arb
Belt $3.0 Arb-1 WAG?
Scutaro $6.7 fixed (3/20)
Craw $0.5 Pre-Arb
Panda $8.25 Fixed
Arias $1.2 Arb-2 WAG?
T. Abreu $1.0 Arb-1

# C/IF Subtotal $32.45

OF (5)

Pagan $10.25 fixed
Pence $16.0 fixed
Blanco $1.8 Arb-2 WAG?
FA (Byrd?) $10.0
Other $0.5 Pre-Arb (Peguero/Brown/Gillespie/Perez/Kieschnick)

# OF Subtotal $38.55

Zito buyout: $7.0

Prelim Total $145.25 (25 players)

I think your assumption that JLo is gone is faulty. Everything I've read is that we want him back and he wants to come back. My guess is 2/9. I'd expect Mijares to be back as well at something like $2.4MM. We will not have a SP rotation with both Tron and Petit. Timmy will be the #4, and we'll sign a #3 (my guess is Ervin Santana). Arias will get about $1.5MM. Shark will get $2.0MM.

 

[tzill]

I'd hate to waste his service time in the 'pen (unless it's absolutely necessary). Based on his numbers in the minors his last 3 seasons, he could be a solid middle-of-the-rotation guy. I'd be OK with the Giants signing "someone" (Gaudin/FA scrap) to be the #5 guy, and if Surkamp dazzles again in Fresno, call him up in late june and he replaces whoever is sucking in the rotation at the time.

My best guess is that the rotation will shape up like this:

1. Bum
2. Cain
3. Santana
4. Timmy
5. Petit/Tron/Kamp/Kick

Whichever three don't break camp go to Fresno and become #6, #7, and #8. Also, Tron will be renegotiated down to about $2.5MM plus incentives that allow him to get $6.0MM if he makes 30+ starts.

Bullpen will be:

C Romo
SU: KCya, JA
Mid: Dunning, JLo
Long: Grope, Mijares

With Hembree, Machi in Fresno near the phone.

C/IF

C Buster, Chez3
IF BB9, Moped, Stamos, Panda, Kobe, Abreu

With Panik and Adrianza knocking on the door; Monell and the Susser in Fresno with Pill

OF

Herk, Oxy, FA, Shark, Kiesh

With JCP, Peggs in Fresno.

 

[Sandisfan]

It would actually cost Seattle (or any team) more than just the contract. Once the QO is extended, other teams give up either a first or second rounder to sign Timmy.

He'll be back with the Giants. My guess is 3/40.

That would be top of the mark for me just because I'm still not sure he can last without going to the bull pen as a swing guy and secret weapon as he was used in the most recent world series run. The draft pick loss will be a pretty big deterrent... so much so I believe it will result in fewer big Free agent signings and will put the league in line for a big strike at the next contract negotiation.

Although it's not inconceivable that the deep pockets of the Cubs or the Mets who are exempt could make an expensive run knowing there is limited competition to pay Timmy plus Seattle has been known to occasionally put up big money and they are exempt.

In retrospect (I was for tanking just a bit) losing 3 more games would have made it possible for the Giants to have more flexibility with an exemption to giving up a 1st rounder for signing a free agent (ten worst records exempt).

 

[calsnowskier]

The draft pick compensation is not new. In fact, he current system offers LESS pick-penalties than the previous system.