2014 Rosterbation

[SFGRTB]

According to Cots, Belt isn't arb until next year, but I have heard a lot of talk about his arb status over the last few weeks, so I am not sure where he sits, exactly...

When I look at Cots, under 2014 salary obligations, next to Belt it says "Arb 1", meaning he is eligible right? But I looked at his Baseball reference page and it says he'll be eligible in 2015.

Belt *might* be arb eligible - he's pretty damn close to the cut-off. In the most recent CBA, "arb eligible" was changed from "top 17% of service time" to "top 22%", so more guys are going to be eligible. Belt might make it, he might not (I sure as shit aint going to try to calculate it). If the rules hadn't changed he definitely wouldn't have made it.

I'll try to do some research on it.

 

[calsnowskier]

When I look at Cots, under 2014 salary obligations, next to Belt it says "Arb 1", meaning he is eligible right? But I looked at his Baseball reference page and it says he'll be eligible in 2015.

I see "Arb 1" under 2015 for Belt...

 

[calsnowskier]

I see what you are looking at...

When you open "2013-18 payroll obligations", he is listed as 2014 eligible.

When you open "2013", he is listed as 2015 eligible.

 

[SFGRTB]

Belt's service time coming into the season was 1.128. The projected cutoff is 2.119 year of service time, and since Belt has spent the entire season on the ML roster his service time will increase to 2.128, putting him a shade above the projected cutoff. So it looks like Belt will be just over that mark, though this number isn't final.

There are a few comparison we can look at to gauge Belt's potential salary:

Chris Johnson. Career war going into offseason of 1st arbitration (fangraphs)- 1 WAR. Salary earned in arbitration- $2.288MM
Brandon Moss. Career war going into offseason of 1st arbitration (fangraphs)- 2.4 WAR. Salary earned in arbitration- $1.6MM
Ike Davis. Career war going into offseason of 1st arbitration (fangraphs)- 5.5 WAR. Salary earned in arbitration- $3.125MM

Belt's career WAR is 6.2

A few things to consider. Johnson was coming off his first full season and his best offensive season since his rookie campaign. Moss was coming of a breakout season where he hit 21 homers in less than 300 ABs. Davis was coming off a 32 homer, 90 RBI season but poor advanced stats and defensive numbers and was injured in the season prior.

Belt I believe fits somewhere in between Davis and Johnson, making around $2.5MM if he is indeed arbitration eligible.

 

[SFGRTB]

I should also bring up another potential international target, Alexander Guerrero. He's a middle infielder (likely a long-term 2B), who's more of an offensive minded player. He has a quick bat and above-average raw power for second base. Scouts are pointing to Ian Kinsler as a comparable player.

He reportedly signed a $32MM deal with the Dodgers, but has further been reported that was not true. Still, it looks like that is going to be the price tag. If the Giants were to sign him, I would still expect Scutaro to be the primary guy at 2nd, but Guerrero getting plenty of looks, maybe even spend some time/a full year in the minors then take over full-time come 2015.

 

[msgkings322]

We've been sending off Zito because it's obvious the guy is through (here at least), but Timmy has made every indication he wants to actually test free agency. I don't think it's a done deal we get him back, not even close. It's a good chance but not a lock.

The Dodgers are rumored to be the team (of course) willing to give Cano $300 million.

While there's no chance of us matching those idiots dollar for dollar with our payroll, I hope the brass realizes we have to step it up with the $ to truly compete. It's just the facts of the world we're in now.

We need to re-sign Pence and Timmy and Lopez even as overpays, and probably overpay a left fielder (or 1B, move Belt) too.

On a contract by contract basis a lot of us here will howl at the $ we give out, but the Dodgers are dictating the terms and we either play along or say 'ok we won 2 in 3 years, this window is done'

 

[SF11704]

On a contract by contract basis a lot of us here will howl at the $ we give out, but the Dodgers are dictating the terms and we either play along or say 'ok we won 2 in 3 years, this window is done'

It's not just the doggies. Seems that there are quite a few teams willing to upgrade 'offers' to the FA market as well as their own players. Have to put the spankies and the halos in that class as well. Also can't leave out the redsux. I think that by the time the 2014 season actually rolls out we may have a very different metric for 'overpays'. just staying competitive will be a little more expensive than anticipated ....

 

[msgkings322]

It's not just the doggies. Seems that there are quite a few teams willing to upgrade 'offers' to the FA market as well as their own players. Have to put the spankies and the halos in that class as well. Also can't leave out the redsux. I think that by the time the 2014 season actually rolls out we may have a very different metric for 'overpays'. just staying competitive will be a little more expensive than anticipated ....

Agreed, although the Yankees seem to be in their version of belt tightening, apparently committed to getting to $190 mil in payroll, hence their unlikeliness to re-sign Cano.

But yes leaguewide the numbers keep rising, TV deals and simple inflation. It's now estimated that 'fair' value is $6 mil per WAR, used to be $5 mil.

The Dogs are setting the pace in our division though. Now we know how the AL East feels.

 

[Sandisfan]

My biggest fear is the Giants overpaying with too long term. I think the key is Term, for instance if both of Aaron Rowand and Zito had been just one year less the situation this year and next wouldn't have been as bad and would have left some flexibility.

My personal view is that it is 50 to 55% we keep Pence I just hope it isn't like a six year contract. I keep going over and over the possiblities in my head about how we could keep Timmy but I just don't think he will be settling for any less than near to 20 million per year because I believe some team will pay that (deep pockets medium to low pockets making a splash "Mariners") with those teams thinking even that if he doesn't work as a reliable starter that a deep pockets team could afford to over pay a top reliever.

It isn't inconceivable that we lose both Timmy and Pence and that since there really isn't a lot of help to be found in free agency (overpaying for Cano, non-option for this team 'no to 300 Mil.') I think it is a pretty good likelihood the Giants try for scraps that come up roses.

 

[GiantsPackersChamps2011]

Pence's salary will definitely be more than 15M.
But he is now here long-term

5/90 18M per

 

[SFGRTB]

Pence's salary will definitely be more than 15M.
But he is now here long-term

5/90 18M per

Terms of the annual salary have yet to be released, and you can bet that the contract will be back-loaded. We'll probably have something around $98MM-$103MM with 8 spots to fill, 4 of which can be filled via arbitration.

 

[tzill]

Timmy on the verge of re-signing. Giants looking at Garza, Santana, Arroyo.

Getting interesting. Wonder if we'll bring Grope and/or Tron back.

 

[GiantsPackersChamps2011]

Timmy on the verge of re-signing. Giants looking at Garza, Santana, Arroyo.

Getting interesting. Wonder if we'll bring Grope and/or Tron back.

Where are you seeing this?

 

[Stokes1931]

Kickham pitching himself back to Fresno next season. Finishes with an ERA over 10! Double the Bomko line.

Like to see Dunning and Hembree make a strong bid for the bully next year. Adios to Mijares. Is Patty under contract still? Seems like a good enough guy, but certainly injury prone, in the strange variety.

 

[SFGRTB]

I would like to see Arroyo on a 2 year deal, though I doubt Reds let him go easy.

 

[tzill]

Where are you seeing this?

The twitter machine...just rumors. Although, the Gs and Timmy were in serious discussions. Rumor is they offered 3/30

 

[MarcoPolo]

Timmy must be pretty pissed he didn't take 6/$110 when it was offered ...

 

[GiantsPackersChamps2011]

I wouldn't mind Tim at 3/30.

 

[calsnowskier]

3/30 would be AWESOME! But it won't happen. I think 3/40 is a fair(ish) deal. Tz is probably right, though, that it will end up taking more than any of us would feel comfortable with.

 

[Mays-Fan]

SF Giants Payroll 2014

Starting pitchers (5)
Timmy $15.0 FA (2/30)
Cain $20.8 fixed
Petit $0.5
Vogey $6.5 fixed
Bum $3.95 fixed

# Starters Subtotal $46.75

Bullpen (7)
Affeldt $6.0 fixed
Romo $5.5 fixed
Casilla $4.5 fixed
Gaudin $3.0 FA
Mijares $1.8 fixed
3 others $1.5 (Dunning/Hembree/Bochy/Rosario/Kickham/et al)

# Bullpen Subtotal $22.3

C/IF (8)

Buster $11.3 fixed
HSan $0.5 Pre-Arb
Belt $3.0 Arb-1
Scutaro $6.7 fixed (3/20)
Craw $0.5 Pre-Arb
Panda $8.25 Fixed
Arias $1.5 Arb-2
T. Abreu $1.0 Arb-1

# C/IF Subtotal $32.75

OF (5)

Pagan $10.25
Pence $18.0 fixed
Blanco $1.8 Arb-1
FA $10.0
Other $0.5 Pre-Arb (Peguero/Brown/Gillespie/Perez/Kieschnick)

# OF Subtotal $40.55

Zito buyout: $7.0

Prelim Total $149.35 (25 players)