2012 Payroll

[tzill]

Cam got me thinking with the Fat Fielder discussion about the payroll for next year. Here's what we know (salaries in $MM)

Zito 19; Tim 18; RoRo 14; Huff 10; Cain 15; Wilson 8.5; Franchez 6; Buster 0.7; Bum 0.7; Belt 0.5 -- 92.4MM

Here's what I project:

Chez 6 (arb); Affeldt 5 (team option); Lopez 3 (FA); Kepp 3.5 (arb); Torres 3 (arb); RamRam 2 (arb); Casilla 2 (arb); Fonty 2 (arb); Song 3 (arb); Pablo 3 (arb); Romo 2 (arb); Nate 2 (arb) -- 36.5

That's 21 players (plus RoRo's contract) and an estimated payroll of 128.9.

Add in Craw .4; Chez3 .4; Peguero .4; and Ford 0.4 -- total about $130MM

Positionally, that breaks down:

C - Posey
1b - Huff
2b - Franchez
SS - Craw
3b - Pablo
LF - Belt
CF - Torres
RF - Nate
Bench - Chez3, Kepp, Fonty, Peguero, Ford, Gillaspie
SP - Tim, Cain, Song, Bum, Chez
RP - Weez, Romo, Affeldt, Lopez, RamRam, Casilla

The problems:

1. Wither Zeets? I don't have a position for him, but he sucks up $19MM.
2. RoRo's contract -- if mgt writes that off, then the payroll shrinks to $115MM
3. We still need a leadoff CF guy. Crisp is going to go about $8MM per, so that brings payroll back up to $123 or so (and keeps Ford down in the minors).
4. Signing Fielder would keep Peguero down in the minors as well, and push payroll north of $140MM even forgetting RoRo's dead money.

Bottom line: mgt may stretch payroll that high, but I wouldn't want to do it for Fielder as a) he's a big fat tub of goo and not getting any slimmer; b) He's not going to be worth $20MM a year in his 30s unless he can DH; c) we'd have to keep Belt in the OF for his career.

It's not the worst idea ever, but I don't like mega contracts for FAs.

 

[CameronFrye]

Jon Sanchez will be traded.
Keppinger will not be in SF next year. They have Burriss/Pill to back up Freddy
Torres should not be in SF next year.
Affeldt is not worth $5 mil and that option should be declined.

That's $17 million that should be gone next year with almost no loss of talent.

 

[calsnowskier]

Cam got me thinking with the Fat Fielder discussion about the payroll for next year. Here's what we know (salaries in $MM)

Zito 19; Tim 18; RoRo 14; Huff 10; Cain 15; Wilson 8.5; Franchez 6; Buster 0.7; Bum 0.7; Belt 0.5 -- 92.4MM

Here's what I project:

Chez 6 (arb); Affeldt 5 (team option); Lopez 3 (FA); Kepp 3.5 (arb); Torres 3 (arb); RamRam 2 (arb); Casilla 2 (arb); Fonty 2 (arb); Song 3 (arb); Pablo 3 (arb); Romo 2 (arb); Nate 2 (arb) -- 36.5

That's 21 players (plus RoRo's contract) and an estimated payroll of 128.9.

Add in Craw .4; Chez3 .4; Peguero .4; and Ford 0.4 -- total about $130MM

Positionally, that breaks down:

C - Posey
1b - Huff
2b - Franchez
SS - Craw
3b - Pablo
LF - Belt
CF - Torres
RF - Nate
Bench - Chez3, Kepp, Fonty, Peguero, Ford, Gillaspie
SP - Tim, Cain, Song, Bum, Chez
RP - Weez, Romo, Affeldt, Lopez, RamRam, Casilla

The problems:

1. Wither Zeets? I don't have a position for him, but he sucks up $19MM.
2. RoRo's contract -- if mgt writes that off, then the payroll shrinks to $115MM
3. We still need a leadoff CF guy. Crisp is going to go about $8MM per, so that brings payroll back up to $123 or so (and keeps Ford down in the minors).
4. Signing Fielder would keep Peguero down in the minors as well, and push payroll north of $140MM even forgetting RoRo's dead money.

Bottom line: mgt may stretch payroll that high, but I wouldn't want to do it for Fielder as a) he's a big fat tub of goo and not getting any slimmer; b) He's not going to be worth $20MM a year in his 30s unless he can DH; c) we'd have to keep Belt in the OF for his career.

It's not the worst idea ever, but I don't like mega contracts for FAs.

Nice post...

However, do you REALLY think the Gs will pay Torres 3M next year? Replacing Torres 3M with Peggy's .4 is only a 2.6M dif, but it IS a start...

Also, remove Durty's 6 and replace with Surkamp's .4, that is another 5.6M...

That is 8.2M right there...

 

[mistgl]

Look at it this way, Fielder has been fat his whole career and it hasn't stopped him from putting up monster numbers.

As for your analysis,

I don't think they exercise Affedlts option. Resign him to another 2 year deal? Possibly, but they're not going to pay a non closer 5mil.

Don't be surprised if some of the bullpen arms you're accounting for are moved in a trade.

Torres ass is gone.

I doubt they resign Font, especially with how much Kep will cost.

Sanchez is up in the air. What he's done this year is not worth what they're paying him.

 

[tzill]

Jon Sanchez will be traded.
Keppinger will not be in SF next year. They have Burriss/Pill to back up Freddy
Torres should not be in SF next year.
Affeldt is not worth $5 mil and that option should be declined.

That's $17 million that should be gone next year with almost no loss of talent.

I'm not sure they'll get value for Chez sufficient to trade him. But, that could save $6MM.

I'll bet you dinner Kepp will be back next year. He's a solid hitter and Freddy will likely miss time at some point. Pill is NOT a second baseman and Burriss can't hit.

Torres may not be back, but he's not a big chunk of payroll anyway. I suspect he will be back as a fourth OF, but even if he isn't you only save $2MM or so.

You may be right on Affledt, and we do have to find a spot for Zito, so I could see them declining. He'd still cost us .5MM to decline, so the savings is only $4.5MM.

I don't think there's nearly as much money to save as you do. I'm not confident Chez will be traded and I'm fairly certain Kepp will be back. The rest doesn't amount to that much.

Good point on Affeldt, though.

 

[tzill]

Nice post...

However, do you REALLY think the Gs will pay Torres 3M next year? Replacing Torres 3M with Peggy's .4 is only a 2.6M dif, but it IS a start...

Also, remove Durty's 6 and replace with Surkamp's .4, that is another 5.6M...

That is 8.2M right there...

I thought about that, but I'm not confident we can get value for Chez, especially if he doesn't pitch again this year. Also, we may be able to sign him for $4-5MM if he misses the rest of the year.

We shall see....

 

[ColinCoby]

Cam got me thinking with the Fat Fielder discussion about the payroll for next year. Here's what we know (salaries in $MM)

Zito 19; Tim 18; RoRo 14; Huff 10; Cain 15; Wilson 8.5; Franchez 6; Buster 0.7; Bum 0.7; Belt 0.5 -- 92.4MM

Here's what I project:

Chez 6 (arb); Affeldt 5 (team option); Lopez 3 (FA); Kepp 3.5 (arb); Torres 3 (arb); RamRam 2 (arb); Casilla 2 (arb); Fonty 2 (arb); Song 3 (arb); Pablo 3 (arb); Romo 2 (arb); Nate 2 (arb) -- 36.5

That's 21 players (plus RoRo's contract) and an estimated payroll of 128.9.

Add in Craw .4; Chez3 .4; Peguero .4; and Ford 0.4 -- total about $130MM

Positionally, that breaks down:

C - Posey
1b - Huff
2b - Franchez
SS - Craw
3b - Pablo
LF - Belt
CF - Torres
RF - Nate
Bench - Chez3, Kepp, Fonty, Peguero, Ford, Gillaspie
SP - Tim, Cain, Song, Bum, Chez
RP - Weez, Romo, Affeldt, Lopez, RamRam, Casilla

The problems:

1. Wither Zeets? I don't have a position for him, but he sucks up $19MM.
2. RoRo's contract -- if mgt writes that off, then the payroll shrinks to $115MM
3. We still need a leadoff CF guy. Crisp is going to go about $8MM per, so that brings payroll back up to $123 or so (and keeps Ford down in the minors).
4. Signing Fielder would keep Peguero down in the minors as well, and push payroll north of $140MM even forgetting RoRo's dead money.

Bottom line: mgt may stretch payroll that high, but I wouldn't want to do it for Fielder as a) he's a big fat tub of goo and not getting any slimmer; b) He's not going to be worth $20MM a year in his 30s unless he can DH; c) we'd have to keep Belt in the OF for his career.

It's not the worst idea ever, but I don't like mega contracts for FAs.

Rep. This is the new conversation. Carry on.

 

[gp956]

I don't trust fat vegetarians. No on Fielder.

 

[ColinCoby]

I thought about that, but I'm not confident we can get value for Chez, especially if he doesn't pitch again this year. Also, we may be able to sign him for $4-5MM if he misses the rest of the year.

We shall see....

I think you cut Affeldt and put Chez out in the 'pen. With his success against lefties, he could be a dominant lefty reliever. And if his head is all messed up, you get him out of there before he walks his fifth guy. Just a thought.

Plus, you got a stud lefty in Lopez already in the 'pen. I like Affeldt, but the bullpen will still be impressive w/o him.

 

[mistgl]

I thought about that, but I'm not confident we can get value for Chez, especially if he doesn't pitch again this year. Also, we may be able to sign him for $4-5MM if he misses the rest of the year.

We shall see....

The problems is, you're theoretical line-up is basically the same thing we marched out at the begging of this season, and they left much to be desired.

I know everyone is confident we'll resign Cain and Lincecum, but they both might actually want to test the FA market. And could you blame them? They're star pitchers who will command top dollar.

 

[tzill]

I don't trust fat vegetarians. No on Fielder.

Repped for awesomey brevity.

 

[CameronFrye]

I'm not sure they'll get value for Chez sufficient to trade him. But, that could save $6MM.

I'll bet you dinner Kepp will be back next year. He's a solid hitter and Freddy will likely miss time at some point. Pill is NOT a second baseman and Burriss can't hit.

Torres may not be back, but he's not a big chunk of payroll anyway. I suspect he will be back as a fourth OF, but even if he isn't you only save $2MM or so.

You may be right on Affledt, and we do have to find a spot for Zito, so I could see them declining. He'd still cost us .5MM to decline, so the savings is only $4.5MM.

I don't think there's nearly as much money to save as you do. I'm not confident Chez will be traded and I'm fairly certain Kepp will be back. The rest doesn't amount to that much.

Good point on Affeldt, though.

tzill - There's no longer a reason to try to get "value" for Durty. It will be more valuable to get rid of his salary and to get rid of the problems associated with keeping him on the team. The guy is a headcase. When SF traded Livan Hernandez for Jim Brower, did anyone think the Giants were getting value? Nope. But they made themselves a better team by subtracting Livan from the team.

The same goes for Durty. By not having him around - even if the player they get back is a long reliever - the Giants are a better team. And they save money that they can put toward a better player.

As for Keppinger, bringing him back to be a backup at second for $3.5 million is crazy. While we all assume Freddy is injury-prone, and we are all agreed that Keppinger is a better hitter than Burriss. Those are not in question. But Manny can play 2B and SS and the OF. Keppinger is sub-par defensively at second. Seeing him at short would be like watching Tejadfa again, and I don't really want that. And I don't know if Keppinger has ever played the OF.

Unless you can guarantee me that Freddie is not going to be ready to open the season, I don't really want to pay $3.5 million for a backup - especially one who can only really back up one position and who is sub-par defensively at that one spot.

 

[CameronFrye]

I think you cut Affeldt and put Chez out in the 'pen. With his success against lefties, he could be a dominant lefty reliever. And if his head is all messed up, you get him out of there before he walks his fifth guy. Just a thought.

Plus, you got a stud lefty in Lopez already in the 'pen. I like Affeldt, but the bullpen will still be impressive w/o him.

Colin - The problem with that is that guys who are starters really don't adapt well to suddenly becoming relievers - especially when they still view themselves as starters.

Putting Durty in the pen - especially at more than $6 mil - is a bad idea.

 

[mistgl]

Colin - The problem with that is that guys who are starters really don't adapt well to suddenly becoming relievers - especially when they still view themselves as starters.

Putting Durty in the pen - especially at more than $6 mil - is a bad idea.

Either way, the rotation and bull-pen situations will work themselves out. They're not our problem, offense is.

Kubel, Cuddyer, Fielder and the list goes on. We need to pick up a GD bat.

 

[tzill]

I think you cut Affeldt and put Chez out in the 'pen. With his success against lefties, he could be a dominant lefty reliever. And if his head is all messed up, you get him out of there before he walks his fifth guy. Just a thought.

Plus, you got a stud lefty in Lopez already in the 'pen. I like Affeldt, but the bullpen will still be impressive w/o him.

Really good point, Colin. Affeldt may be redundant. If Chez goes to the pen, where does that leave Zeets, though? I'm assuming your fifth starter would be Surkamp?

 

[SFGRTB]

Tzill, I think Rowand is due $12 million next year

 

[tzill]

Tzill, I think Rowand is due $12 million next year

I have him at $13.6, which I rounded to $14:

https://spreadsheets.google.com/pub?key=t4r9nky1EouVJsFXQlv3FKQ&output=html

 

[SFGRTB]

OUT: Ross, Cabrera, DeRosa, Whiteside, Fontenot, Burrell, Mota, Tejada. Thats $22 million

I'm still undecided on Beltran.

 

[SFGRTB]

I have him at $13.6, which I rounded to $14:

https://spreadsheets.google.com/pub?key=t4r9nky1EouVJsFXQlv3FKQ&output=html

I have him at $12 million. This year and next. Had an $8 million signing bonus that was paid in 08' and 09' at 4 million each.

Cot's Baseball Contracts: San Francisco Giants

 

[SFGRTB]

I have him at $13.6, which I rounded to $14:

https://spreadsheets.google.com/pub?key=t4r9nky1EouVJsFXQlv3FKQ&output=html

Sanchez is represented by Boras???? Fffuuuckkkkk