2015 Offseason moves

[SFGRTB]

I'd rather trade Susac first.

 

[calsnowskier]

I'd rather trade Susac first.

Well, I would rather trade JCP first. But neither will bring back as much as Panik or Craw.

 

[MarcoPolo]

Aoki's vest just makes the option mutual. It does not lock it in. Basically, the vesting gives him an out.

After the season, Petit would not need to clear waivers. He would would be tendered a contract or non-tendered. If he is non-tendered, he is a FA. If he wanted, he could come back with a ST invite, but he could go to any other team that offered him something as well. The Giants would have no special legal rights to him. I suspect he would have enough value that the Giants would explore trading him before non-tendering him. This is what the Marlins did with sHits.

RE: the bolded ... that's not *exactly* true. After the 2015 season, Petit should have 5.016 of service time (5 years, 16 days). The Giants could outright him to the minors OR simply try to option him to the minors, in which case he would have to clear waivers. I think we all agree that Petit wouldn't clear waivers. But since he has over 5 years of service time, he can refuse assignment to the minors and become a FA - which he would probably do as *some* team would give him at least $1M (much more than the $70K or so he would be guaranteed in the minors).

 

[msgkings322]

So what could we get in terms of a starter for Susac/Beede/EA or Tomlinson?

Obviously would need to be a bad team building for the future. Is that enough to get a #2?

 

[LHG]

So what could we get in terms of a starter for Susac/Beede/EA or Tomlinson?

Obviously would need to be a bad team building for the future. Is that enough to get a #2?

Looking at the rotations for the teams really struggling this year (at least 10 games under .500 as of today), these are the guys they may be interested in trading:
Red Sox
Rick Porcello
Joe Kelly
A's
Jesse Chavez
Brewers
Matt Garza
Rockies
Jorge de la Rosa

Most of the struggling clubs have young pitchers under long term deals, will be free agents in the offseason or have already been dealt that would have been possibly dealt in the off season. The Reds may be interested in trading Homer Bailey but I'd guess that they would wait to see if he gets healthy and then deal him mid season 2016.

Expand the list to all teams at or under 500 and you also get:
Padres
James Shields
Andrew Cashner
Diamondbacks
Jeremy Hellickson
Josh Collmenter
White Sox
Chris Sale
Tigers
Anibal Sanchez
Justin Verlander
Twins
Phil Hughes
Ricky Nolasco
Mariners
Felix Hernandez (yeah, probably not)

This list is much more intriguing but what's the likelihood of getting a pitcher from a division rival? If Chris Sale were to go on the market, I would think the Giants would get out bid on that one. I just included King Felix for fun. Don't see that one really happening.

Additionally, I think the following could possibly see a trade in August, maybe:
Justin Masterson
Jeff Samardzija
Alfredo Simon
Mike Pelfrey
Kyle Lohse
Ian Kennedy

Pass.

 

[msgkings322]

Looking at the rotations for the teams really struggling this year (at least 10 games under .500 as of today), these are the guys they may be interested in trading:
Red Sox
Rick Porcello
Joe Kelly
A's
Jesse Chavez
Brewers
Matt Garza
Rockies
Jorge de la Rosa

Most of the struggling clubs have young pitchers under long term deals, will be free agents in the offseason or have already been dealt that would have been possibly dealt in the off season. The Reds may be interested in trading Homer Bailey but I'd guess that they would wait to see if he gets healthy and then deal him mid season 2016.

Expand the list to all teams at or under 500 and you also get:
Padres
James Shields
Andrew Cashner
Diamondbacks
Jeremy Hellickson
Josh Collmenter
White Sox
Chris Sale
Tigers
Anibal Sanchez
Justin Verlander
Twins
Phil Hughes
Ricky Nolasco
Mariners
Felix Hernandez (yeah, probably not)

This list is much more intriguing but what's the likelihood of getting a pitcher from a division rival? If Chris Sale were to go on the market, I would think the Giants would get out bid on that one. I just included King Felix for fun. Don't see that one really happening.

Additionally, I think the following could possibly see a trade in August, maybe:
Justin Masterson
Jeff Samardzija
Alfredo Simon
Mike Pelfrey
Kyle Lohse
Ian Kennedy

Pass.

Thanks....I didn't mean August actually, I'm thinking offseason, for 2016+. If we could get a legit #2 under contract for a couple of years+ I'd part with Susac and Beede

 

[LHG]

Thanks....I didn't mean August actually, I'm thinking offseason, for 2016+. If we could get a legit #2 under contract for a couple of years+ I'd part with Susac and Beede

That's what most of the list is about. I think we could land many of those guys for the guys suggested, however, it wouldn't be worth it as almost all are not #2 guys.

I added the list on the end on who may be available this month, if the Giants were looking for help now, with Leake down.

 

[msgkings322]

That's what most of the list is about. I added the list on the end on who may be available this month, if the Giants were looking for help now, with Leake down.

Got it, thanks. I don't think Leake is down for long, and I don't think they are interested in any more trades for this year.

 

[msgkings322]

There's a lot of reasons it's hard to repeat as champs. You need the things you planned to go well actually go well, you need few things you don't expect to go wrong, and you need plenty of luck.

At seasons' start the plan was for Cain and Lincecum to come back with solid years. Didn't happen.

We did get some luck with Heston and Duffy, but in Heston's case it ain't a done deal yet.

Even the Yankees won a bunch and then waited 9 years to win another. Maybe we need a couple of years to get back to elite starting pitching, for kids like Beede and Stratton and Blackburn to emerge. We should have a good enough core of young hitting, just need another couple of years for the rotation to get there?

 

[LHG]

I won't re-list all the potential starting pitchers free agents here, you can see them here:
2015-16 MLB Free Agents - MLB Trade Rumors
I will list the ones under 30 below. Anyone think any are worth looking at?
Brett Anderson
Brandon Beachy
Trevor Cahill
Jamie Garcia (has option with Cardinals)
Mat Latos
Mike Leake

 

[MarcoPolo]

Personally, I am very Latos intolerant.

 

[LHG]

Personally, I am very Latos intolerant.

I would agree. Then that leaves, from my list, really only three guys to consider (assuming Garcia's option is exercised and the Giants have re-signed Leake) - Anderson, Beachy and Cahill. Cahill was a disaster for the Braves and was dfa'd. Beachy looked rocky in his brief stint by the Dodgers and got dfa'd. Anderson has looked good with the Dodgers but has an injury history that makes him very risky.

If we expand the list to pitchers at 30, they include:
Wei-Yin Chen
Johnny Cueto
Yovanni Gallardo
David Price
Jordan Zimmermann

My personal thought is that you shouldn't sign a 30 year old starting pitcher to anything more than a 4 year contract. Much too risky after that. With that said, three of these guys are going to get at least 6 year deals. Gallardo doesn't look like more than a 3rd or 4th guy.
Chen, however, I'm intrigued with. He's shown improvement for three straight years pitching in the AL East. It makes me wonder what kind of numbers he would be able to post in the NL West. Out of all the 30 and under free agent starters, I'd have to say that he may be my number 1 to see signed. There's at least 6 pitchers that will get more interest then him so he may be much more affordable.

 

[dredinis21]

Well, I would rather trade JCP first. But neither will bring back as much as Panik or Craw.

I think that the FO would have to be CRAZY to trade Craw, Panik, and/or Duffy at all, regardless of the FA pitching shortage. Mike Leake was a GREAT pickup and I would frankly be stunned if we didn't resign him...and I see him as a great #3, solid #2 at the moment. We have guys in the minors who are maturing that I would rather give a shot to. Hell, look at Heston!?! Who would have predicted THAT?!? Whether it be Beede or the cuppo goes to Stratton or others, we have some options in the minors I'd rather try then to break up our infield before they even hit their prime.

 

[dredinis21]

Personally, I am very Latos intolerant.

 

[calsnowskier]

I think that the FO would have to be CRAZY to trade Craw, Panik, and/or Duffy at all, regardless of the FA pitching shortage. Mike Leake was a GREAT pickup and I would frankly be stunned if we didn't resign him...and I see him as a great #3, solid #2 at the moment. We have guys in the minors who are maturing that I would rather give a shot to. Hell, look at Heston!?! Who would have predicted THAT?!? Whether it be Beede or the cuppo goes to Stratton or others, we have some options in the minors I'd rather try then to break up our infield before they even hit their prime.

I feel you. I would hate to break up the band as well.

But arms win rings. If we were able to get someone LIKE Cole or Fernandez for one of those guys, I make that trade.

 

[tzill]

Yup.

And as much I like Beede and to a lessor extent Stratton, I dont think either are Ace material (Beede has a better chance of getting there, I think).

Bickford MAY be that Ace-prospect, however. I saw a writeup on him that compared him to Scherzer. But he is AT LEAST 3 years away.

If he's more than 3 years away, he either is injured or a bad pick. He'd better get here by 2018.

 

[calsnowskier]

If he's more than 3 years away, he either is injured or a bad pick. He'd better get here by 2018.

Well, '18 is three years from now...

That said, the "at least" was probably a strong term to use.

 

[MarcoPolo]

I would agree. Then that leaves, from my list, really only three guys to consider (assuming Garcia's option is exercised and the Giants have re-signed Leake) - Anderson, Beachy and Cahill. Cahill was a disaster for the Braves and was dfa'd. Beachy looked rocky in his brief stint by the Dodgers and got dfa'd. Anderson has looked good with the Dodgers but has an injury history that makes him very risky.

{...}

If the Giants resign Leake, they don't need to sign anybody else.

 

[calsnowskier]

Not worthy of its own thread, so I figured I would put it in here...

Machi is getting consideration as Bostons closer.

Since joining the Sox, he has appeared in 4 games going 3.2 IP while giving up 3 ER.

Ouch.

 

[msgkings322]

If the Giants resign Leake, they don't need to sign anybody else.

I have to disagree....Bum/Heston/Leake/Peavy/Cain isn't a championship rotation IMO. I would be wrong if Heston turns out to be a #1/#2 pitcher, but is that realistic? No one else in that rotation has the possibility of being that in 2016