2015 Offseason moves

[LHG]

The problem with using straight OPS, though is taking park factors into effect. Normally that is not a HUGE issue, but if one of the players happens to play in an extreme park, that can really skew the numbers. Blanco plays in an extreme pitchers park. OPS+ is not perfect, but I like it better since it normalizes for the park, then compares to the rest of the league.

Here you go, per Baseball Reference (sOPS+):
Blanco 2013 - 81/93/124/39/77/169 99
Span 2013 - 89/103/73/113/104/109 115
Blanco 2014 - 25/112/76/97/151/127 105
Span 2014 - 74/110/107/152/127/156 119

Offensively, Span may be a slight upgrade, based on the past two years, but he currently costs the Nationals $9 million while Blanco makes $3.9 million this year. If Blanco can carry what he's done this year into 2016, I see no reason to get Span.

 

[tzill]

Here you go, per Baseball Reference (sOPS+):
Blanco 2013 - 81/93/124/39/77/169 99
Span 2013 - 89/103/73/113/104/109 115
Blanco 2014 - 25/112/76/97/151/127 105
Span 2014 - 74/110/107/152/127/156 119

Offensively, Span may be a slight upgrade, based on the past two years, but he currently costs the Nationals $9 million while Blanco makes $3.9 million this year. If Blanco can carry what he's done this year into 2016, I see no reason to get Span.

Which was my original point.

 

[calsnowskier]

I apologize, LHG. You were not doing a comparison, you were demonstrating streakiness. You were not comparing Blanco to Span, per se, as much as you were comparing Span to Span and Blanco to Blanco. You initial use of OPS was more than appropriate for what you were trying to demonstrate.

 

[calsnowskier]

Blanco has been slightly more streaky, I think, but he will make approx 5M vs Spans approx 10M asking price in '16.

I am good with Blanco.

 

[LHG]

Which was my original point.

I wasn't trying to argue that Span wasn't the case. My perspective was that he's not enough of an upgrade to be worth the contract he may command. My breakdown was to show that Blanco may not fade as much as you seem to think. He's more up and down in general but I don't see a uniform slide downward.

 

[LHG]

I apologize, LHG. You were not doing a comparison, you were demonstrating streakiness. You were not comparing Blanco to Span, per se, as much as you were comparing Span to Span and Blanco to Blanco. You initial use of OPS was more than appropriate for what you were trying to demonstrate.

No apologies necessary. Using sOPS+ wasn't any more difficult than what I originally used.

 

[tzill]

I wasn't trying to argue that Span wasn't the case. My perspective was that he's not enough of an upgrade to be worth the contract he may command. My breakdown was to show that Blanco may not fade as much as you seem to think. He's more up and down in general but I don't see a uniform slide downward.

Gotcha. I'm not convinced he can give us 150 games a year, but you may be right. Span, if healthy, I know CAN give us 150 games a year. Is that worth an additional $5MM a year?

maybe.

 

[msgkings322]

Giants have a real problem for the rest of this year and for 2016. I think we all agree starting pitching is the weak spot on the team, which is pretty weird for us during this recent run. Yeah we can score now, but that's getting us barely in the wild card (2nd wild card) hunt vs teams with better SP (Mets) and arguably better (Cubs).

We all know pitching wins rings, that's how we got our 3. I just don't think we have the horses this year, we might squeak in and then I don't think we have them. You never know of course. But I think the FO did things exactly right for this year.

The 2016 challenge is, can you go to war and win a ring with Bum/Heston/Leake (assuming they get him)/Peavy/Cain? I feel like you need one more no doubt #1/#2 pitcher. Problem is to get one you have to sign some 30 year old (Price, Cueto, etc) to a 7 year $180 million+ contract, and the Giants are too smart for that (with Zito in the past).

But if they don't do it, I don't know how they win another ring, unless Beede is that guy. And is he that guy soon enough?

Not easy winning rings...

 

[LHG]

Giants have a real problem for the rest of this year and for 2016. I think we all agree starting pitching is the weak spot on the team, which is pretty weird for us during this recent run. Yeah we can score now, but that's getting us barely in the wild card (2nd wild card) hunt vs teams with better SP (Mets) and arguably better (Cubs).

We all know pitching wins rings, that's how we got our 3. I just don't think we have the horses this year, we might squeak in and then I don't think we have them. You never know of course. But I think the FO did things exactly right for this year.

The 2016 challenge is, can you go to war and win a ring with Bum/Heston/Leake (assuming they get him)/Peavy/Cain? I feel like you need one more no doubt #1/#2 pitcher. Problem is to get one you have to sign some 30 year old (Price, Cueto, etc) to a 7 year $180 million+ contract, and the Giants are too smart for that (with Zito in the past).

But if they don't do it, I don't know how they win another ring, unless Beede is that guy. And is he that guy soon enough?

Not easy winning rings...

Between Lincecum, Peavy, Vogelsong, Hudson, Cain, Leake, Heston and Bumgarner, the Giants have two much starting pitching. The problem is in the performance. I think I lean more toward tzill's stance on the rotation. The quality is not there consistently. I'm hoping, for 2015, that a couple of these guys break out in a hot streak. However, the opposite seems to be happening.
For 2016, I'm not in favor of the big names on the market, long, expensive contracts to pitchers in their 30s never seems like a good idea. Hopefully, Beede will be ready for 2017. Until then, what do you do? The closest starter to the big leagues is Chris Stratton. Not sure he is the answer, except as a 4th or 5th guy.

 

[msgkings322]

Between Lincecum, Peavy, Vogelsong, Hudson, Cain, Leake, Heston and Bumgarner, the Giants have two much starting pitching. The problem is in the performance. I think I lean more toward tzill's stance on the rotation. The quality is not there consistently. I'm hoping, for 2015, that a couple of these guys break out in a hot streak. However, the opposite seems to be happening.
For 2016, I'm not in favor of the big names on the market, long, expensive contracts to pitchers in their 30s never seems like a good idea. Hopefully, Beede will be ready for 2017. Until then, what do you do? The closest starter to the big leagues is Chris Stratton. Not sure he is the answer, except as a 4th or 5th guy.

Exactly, so do we just use 2016 as another 'be competitive but don't win it' year? Because in 2017 you lose Peavy too...so 2017 Bum/Heston/Leake/Stratton/Beede? That's a championship team?

They need one more legit arm.

 

[calsnowskier]

I mentioned it somewhere already, but maybe the FA market is not where we get that other big pitcher.

Dangle Craw/Panik/Duffy (value, I think, is in that order) and see what comes back. I would think we would be able to get a pretty nice stud for one of those guys.

 

[msgkings322]

I mentioned it somewhere already, but maybe the FA market is not where we get that other big pitcher.

Dangle Craw/Panik/Duffy (value, I think, is in that order) and see what comes back. I would think we would be able to get a pretty nice stud for one of those guys.

I suppose so...but ouch.

 

[calsnowskier]

I suppose so...but ouch.

Gotta give to get.

And you just said, pitching wins rings.

 

[LHG]

Exactly, so do we just use 2016 as another 'be competitive but don't win it' year? Because in 2017 you lose Peavy too...so 2017 Bum/Heston/Leake/Stratton/Beede? That's a championship team?

They need one more legit arm.

Who do you get? Who is available to pick up that may not be Zito-esque (or Kevin Brown like or name your big name pitcher who's big contract goes terribly wrong as some time) at some point? Its a gamble for sure, but it seems that more often than not, the gamble doesn't pay off for those big name pitchers. Look at Sabathia in New York the past couple of years. Seems the only ones that really work out are the home grown guys (Felix Hernandez for example) that sign long term before testing the waters of free agency. Then again, even those can make building the rest of the team cost prohibitive.
The great rotation that won multiple rings were mostly home grown. Bumgarner, Cain, Lincecum, Sanchez (2010) all came from the farm. Vogelsong and Petit were a pair of spring training invitees that hit the jackpot. Hudson was a manageable two year deal pick up. Peavy a fairly cheap mid season trade. Zito is the only one that started on any of the teams that was a big name pick up and the team won in spite of him in 2010.

 

[LHG]

I suppose so...but ouch.

Ouch indeed. Cal, who do you think we could get for a package of Crawford and/or Panik and a prospect or two?

 

[msgkings322]

Who do you get? Who is available to pick up that may not be Zito-esque (or Kevin Brown like or name your big name pitcher who's big contract goes terribly wrong as some time) at some point? Its a gamble for sure, but it seems that more often than not, the gamble doesn't pay off for those big name pitchers. Look at Sabathia in New York the past couple of years. Seems the only ones that really work out are the home grown guys (Felix Hernandez for example) that sign long term before testing the waters of free agency. Then again, even those can make building the rest of the team cost prohibitive.
The great rotation that won multiple rings were mostly home grown. Bumgarner, Cain, Lincecum, Sanchez (2010) all came from the farm. Vogelsong and Petit were a pair of spring training invitees that hit the jackpot. Hudson was a manageable two year deal pick up. Peavy a fairly cheap mid season trade. Zito is the only one that started on any of the teams that was a big name pick up and the team won in spite of him in 2010.

Agreed, as I said it's not a smart play usually and the Giants aren't the kind of team that falls for it.

I guess cal is right they might have to trade an infield stud....also not a hallmark of the recent success, trading a homegrown youngster already established at the ML level, they didn't do that during this run either.

 

[calsnowskier]

Yup.

And as much I like Beede and to a lessor extent Stratton, I dont think either are Ace material (Beede has a better chance of getting there, I think).

Bickford MAY be that Ace-prospect, however. I saw a writeup on him that compared him to Scherzer. But he is AT LEAST 3 years away.

 

[calsnowskier]

Agreed, as I said it's not a smart play usually and the Giants aren't the kind of team that falls for it.

I guess cal is right they might have to trade an infield stud....also not a hallmark of the recent success, trading a homegrown youngster already established at the ML level, they didn't do that during this run either.

We had 4 home-grown Aces in '10. Hard to do that again.

 

[calsnowskier]

Ouch indeed. Cal, who do you think we could get for a package of Crawford and/or Panik and a prospect or two?

Hell, Craw AND Panik should be able to get a pre-surgury Fernandez.

I am not recommending we trade TWO of those guys. I am proposing offering ONE of them (maybe with a prospect or other filler).

 

[msgkings322]

Ouch indeed. Cal, who do you think we could get for a package of Crawford and/or Panik and a prospect or two?

Hold on there, the only pitcher in MLB I'd trade Craw AND Panik for is Kerhsaw. Maybe.