Penn State or Michigan? Which team is more likely to end Ohio State's Big Ten East dominance?

[ericd7633]

It would undoubtedly be an upset. PSU will have an early test against a very possibly ranked VT team which, assuming they win, would all but assure they are a top 5-6 team. michigan should beat Washington, but I have them losing to Wisconsin the week before PSU, which would likely put them somewhere around 18-20. So, yeah, that's a pretty big upset.

Yeah and if your scenario plays out, it's probably a pick em game. So, no, it wouldn't be a big upset.

 

[ericd7633]

People acting like Michigan has a home-field advantage this year despite Whitmer still being governor.

I said from the beginning, assuming all is normal, which we know it won't be.

 

[Across The Field]

Yeah and if your scenario plays out, it's probably a pick em game. So, no, it wouldn't be a big upset.

Last year when PSU played michigan, PSU was unbeaten and ranked 7th while michigan was 5-1 ranked 16. The game was at PSU and they were a 7.5 point favorite. If they're unbeaten and ranked ~5/6 this year and michigan has 1 loss and is ranked somewhere in the late teens, I don't see that suddenly becoming a pick em just because it's at michigan. In my scenario, PSU is probably a 3/3.5 point favorite.

 

[ericd7633]

Last year when PSU played michigan, PSU was unbeaten and ranked 7th while michigan was 5-1 ranked 16. The game was at PSU and they were a 7.5 point favorite. If they're unbeaten and ranked ~5/6 this year and michigan has 1 loss and is ranked somewhere in the late teens, I don't see that suddenly becoming a pick em just because it's at michigan. In my scenario, PSU is probably a 3/3.5 point favorite.

I don't see any scenario where PSU is that big of a favorite, outside of Wisconsin doing what they did to Michigan last year and that certainly won't be the case. I'm gonna say Michigan is favored that game.

 

[Across The Field]

I don't see any scenario where PSU is that big of a favorite, outside of Wisconsin doing what they did to Michigan last year and that certainly won't be the case. I'm gonna say Michigan is favored that game.

Your argument is similar to Iowa-ISU last year, with the game being on the road for Iowa and your thought that ISU was going to be better than Iowa last year, so I'll just stick with my thoughts again this year.

 

[ericd7633]

Your argument is similar to Iowa-ISU last year, with the game being on the road for Iowa and your thought that ISU was going to be better than Iowa last year, so I'll just stick with my thoughts again this year.

Yeah it is. ISU was favored at this point last season. Then they needed OT to beat UNI, thus the reason for the movement in the line. With that said, I still think the line closed at Iowa -1.5/2 at kickoff. So yeah, if Michigan has a result like that, PSU will be favored by a couple or so.

 

[Across The Field]

Yeah it is. ISU was favored at this point last season. Then they needed OT to beat UNI, thus the reason for the movement in the line. With that said, I still think the line closed at Iowa -1.5/2 at kickoff. So yeah, if Michigan has a result like that, PSU will be favored by a couple or so.

If they blow out Washington (highly unlikely) and manage to beat Wisconsin, I could see them being favored or it being a pick em. That's probably best-case scenario.

 

[ericd7633]

If they blow out Washington (highly unlikely) and manage to beat Wisconsin, I could see them being favored or it being a pick em. That's probably best-case scenario.

That isn't best case scenario. They are already favored against them. Simply beating UW and Wisconsin will be enough. They don't have to blow anyone out. Honestly they could probably go 1-1 in those games and still be favored.

 

[ralphiewvu]

Is this just you pumping them up because they beat the ever-loving hell out of ND last year? To try and make it seem like they're better than they actually are? Because otherwise, I can't find anything that would support your ideas here.

It’s been over a decade since ether PSU or Wisconsin have won in the a Big House. Based on recruiting rankings it’s not impossible to think Michigan will beat all three. I’m really not sure what you are supporting your argument with?

Ohh and lol at complaining about someone else pumping up their opponents to make their team look better. You live on that.

 

[fishinabarrel]

Tom Osborne lost his first 5 to Oklahoma.
The fans talked about firing him.


Look how he turned out.

The chances of Harbaugh becoming as successful as Tom Osborne are just about zero

 

[outofyourmind]

The chances of Harbaugh becoming as successful as Tom Osborne are just about zero

Never say never.
Tom Osborne only became "Tom Osborne" after Barry Switzer left Oklahoma.


Shit happens.

 

[fishinabarrel]

Never say never.
Tom Osborne only became "Tom Osborne" after Barry Switzer left Oklahoma.


Shit happens.

Urban Meyer left Ohio State...Ryan Day gave Hairballs another beating

 

[Across The Field]

It’s been over a decade since ether PSU or Wisconsin have won in the a Big House. Based on recruiting rankings it’s not impossible to think Michigan will beat all three. I’m really not sure what you are supporting your argument with?

Ohh and lol at complaining about someone else pumping up their opponents to make their team look better. You live on that.

Recruiting rankings are far from everything. I'm basing it on 3 things:
1. Harbaugh finally has to start a QB he actually recruited and was in charge of developing, something he hasn't shown the ability to do in 5 years at michigan
2. They've had massive coaching turnover on the defensive side of the ball in the last two years. We saw their defense take a step back last year after losing Mattison and Washington, and they lost two of their best coaches (according to michigan fans last year) earlier this offseason and Harbaugh replaced them with no-names.
3. Both Wisconsin and PSU are simply better teams. They are both trending in great directions as a program while michigan is seemingly just spinning their tires, if not falling further back.

And what the hell are you talking about with your second post?

 

[Cr0ssT0wnRival]

Penn State.

 

[ralphiewvu]

Recruiting rankings are far from everything. I'm basing it on 3 things:
1. Harbaugh finally has to start a QB he actually recruited and was in charge of developing, something he hasn't shown the ability to do in 5 years at michigan
2. They've had massive coaching turnover on the defensive side of the ball in the last two years. We saw their defense take a step back last year after losing Mattison and Washington, and they lost two of their best coaches (according to michigan fans last year) earlier this offseason and Harbaugh replaced them with no-names.
3. Both Wisconsin and PSU are simply better teams. They are both trending in great directions as a program while michigan is seemingly just spinning their tires, if not falling further back.

And what the hell are you talking about with your second post?

1) He as you stated hasn’t done that yet at Michigan and still hasn’t lost to PSU or Wisconsin at home.

2) The defensive side of the ball still has talent.

3) PSU yes, but they’ve had better teams before and still haven’t won there since 2009. Wisconsin I’ll honestly say is a tossup. I give the edge to Michigan because it’s in the Big House.

My last point was laughing at you for giving someone else shit for defending teams on that’s persons fav teams schedule.

 

[Across The Field]

1) He as you stated hasn’t done that yet at Michigan and still hasn’t lost to PSU or Wisconsin at home.

2) The defensive side of the ball still has talent.

3) PSU yes, but they’ve had better teams before and still haven’t won there since 2009. Wisconsin I’ll honestly say is a tossup. I give the edge to Michigan because it’s in the Big House.

My last point was laughing at you for giving someone else shit for defending teams on that’s persons fav teams schedule.

1. Yeah, that's sort of the point. This will be the first year he's ever had to develop a QB. He's only won games with transfer QBs who developed elsewhere. It's problematic that a coach has been somewhere for 5 years and is only now having to show that he can win with a QB he himself has actually developed.
2. Sure it does. But it doesn't have coaches who have been around long other than Don Brown. As I illustrated already, michigan's defense took a step back last year after losing two important coaches. Now they've lost two more. That's sort of a big deal. Also, it's not like PSU doesn't have a likely top 5 defense nationally, or that Wisconsin doesn't have stout defenses every year.
3. The 2020 PSU team could very well be the best one Franklin has had at PSU. His defense is going to be incredibly elite. He has arguably the top RB stable in the B1G, an elite play-making TE, and an experienced and talented OL. They are going to be an extremely good team with more going for them than michigan. Meanwhile, Wisconsin is going to have another ~top 10 offensive line nationally, an experienced QB and solid play-makers. Above all, though, both of these teams have better coaching staffs than michigan, which is going to be the difference IMO.

And to your last point, I am again asking what you're talking about?

 

[Wamu]

Nothing good has ever come out of ann arbor.

 

[Wamu]

Urban Meyer left Ohio State...Ryan Day gave Hairballs another beating

Remember when maizeNblew09 was calling Ryan Day a HS coach? That was funny.

 

[Wamu]

Never say never.
Tom Osborne only became "Tom Osborne" after Barry Switzer left Oklahoma.


Shit happens.

Pretty sure Don James beat both Switzer and Osbourne. James > Switzer/Osbourne Better ask AG about it.

 

[outofyourmind]

Pretty sure Don James beat both Switzer and Osbourne. James > Switzer/Osbourne Better ask AG about it.

That sounded better in your head.