Time for CFP/NCAA to change selection rules.

[Gator]

I do think in some ways FSU DID get hosed by the selection committee just not in the way many think. I think the committee screwed up by allowing Michigan and to a smaller extent Washington to skate in to the CFP.

I've said it before and I'll say it again - conference games (I don't care how many you play) DO NOTHING to sort out the best teams nationally.
Consider the case of two 9-team conferences, A and B. Both conferences play round-robin conference schedules. The teams in conference A end up 8-0, 7-1, 6-2, 5-3, 4,4, 3-5, 2-6, 1-7, and 0-8. The teams in conference B all end up 4-4. Does that mean that all of the teams in conference B are equivalent to the 5th best in A? Apparently, it does to this committee. Now suppose the teams in the two conferences play 4 teams at random in the other conference in OOC games and every team in B ends up 4-0!

Now, the overall records for conference A are 8-4, 7-5, 6-6, 5-7, 4-8, 3-9, 2-10, 1-11, and 0-12 while every team in B ends up 8-4. Has your opinion changed as to conference strength????? IN-conference games DO NOT tell you which teams are best nationally - only OOC games do that.

The Big Ten (Top 5 Conf teams played...)
Conf # 1 Michigan (the supposed #1 team) played ZERO P5 teams OOC. BTW, UM was the ONLY B1G team to not play a single OOC P5 team.
Conf # 2 Ohio State vs Conf # 3.1 Notre Dame W
Conf # 3 Penn State vs Conf # 7 West Virginia W
Conf # 4 Iowa vs Conf # 6 Iowa State W
Conf # 5 Maryland vs Conf # 13 Virginia W

Conf # 13 Michigan State vs Conf # 1 Washington L
Conf # 14 Indiana vs Conf # 2 Louisville L


The PAC (Top 5 Conf teams played...)
Conf # 1 Washington Conf # 13 Michigan State W
Conf # 2 Oregon Conf # 8 Texas Tech W
Conf # 3 Arizona Conf # 12 Mississippi State L
Conf # 4 Oregon State Conf #
Conf # 5 Utah Conf # 10 Florida W
Conf # 5 Utah Conf # 14 Baylor W
Conf # 7 UCLA Pac 12 Conf #

The ACC(Top 5 Conf teams played...)
Conf # 1 Florida State Conf # 3 Louisiana State W
Conf # 1 Florida State Conf # 10 Florida W
Conf # 2 Louisville Conf # 3.1 Notre Dame W
Conf # 2 Louisville Conf # 8 Kentucky L
Conf # 2 Louisville Conf # 14 Indiana W
Conf # 3 Clemson Conf # 3.1 Notre Dame W
Conf # 3 Clemson Conf # 11 South Carolina W
Conf # 4 NC State Conf # 3.1 Notre Dame L
Conf # 5 North Carolina Conf # 9 Minnesota W
Conf # 5 North Carolina Conf # 11 South Carolina W
Conf # 11 Boston College Conf # Only ACC team to not play OOC P5 team.
The Big 12 (Top 5 Conf teams played...)
Conf # 1 Texas Conf # 1 Alabama W
Conf # 2 Oklahoma Conf #
Conf # 3 KState Conf # 4 Missouri L
Conf # 4 Kansas Conf # 10 Illinois W
Conf # 5 Okla State Conf # 11 Arizona State W
Conf # 9 UCF Conf #
Conf # 12 Houston Conf #
The SEC (Top 5 Conf teams played...)
Conf # 1 Alabama Conf # 1 Texas L
Conf # 2 Georgia Conf # 8 Georgia Tech W
Conf # 3 Louisiana State Conf # 1 Florida State L
Conf # 4 Missouri Conf # 3 Kansas State W
Conf # 5 Mississippi Conf # 8 Georgia Tech W

As a conference the SEC played 3 x #1, 1 x #2, 3 x #3, 2 x #5.

So, as you can see, the two top teams played the easiest OOC schedules and played in the two conferences that played the easiest OOC schedules. With the expanded conferences and the desire to play MORE IN-conference games this problem is goint to get worse.

The NCAA must mandate that A) teams must play at least TWO OOC P5 teams and B) one must be ranked opponent!

 

[bamagrad75]

The problem is the committee tried to state what would constitute a selection. But no one set fits all situations.

They would be better off just saying we will select those teams which we think will be the best match-up and quit trying to nail it down to some arbitrary formula, which they then adjust to their liking.

In my book, based on their earlier comments, FSU should have gotten in and #4 would be who they felt was the best representative.

 

[belcherboy]

First off, didn't Michigan play the same number of P-5 schools as Georgia, Florida, and Alabama this season?

Second, the schedules are about to get even crazier!


The good news is that most teams now play a robust P-5 OOC schedule.

Michigan:
2024: Texas (SEC)
2025: Oklahoma (SEC)
2026: Oklahoma (SEC)
2027: Texas (SEC)

Georgia: (GT every year)
2024: Clemson (ACC)
2025: UCLA (ACC)
2026: UCLA (ACC), Louisville (ACC)
2027: Florida St (ACC), Louisville (ACC)

Florida:
2024: Texas (SEC)
2025: NONE
2026: NONE
2027: NONE

 

[countryroads316]

 

[Hornsstampede2.0]

This is getting embarrasing now for the fake outrage people.
Shit happens.

For 100 fucking years, College Football worked on a POLLING beauty contest system. It is literally woven into the sport itself.
People's opinions of the relative merits of a team has been the only consistent thing.

My 2008 Longhorns beat 2008 Oklahoma who beat 2008 TTU who beat 2008 Texas
The BCS polls chose OU, despite OU having neutral/home , TTU having home/road, and Texas getting the worst of it with neutral/road.

Mack Brown whined and complained, but it was what it was..
It sucked. But, it was probably at least the 50th time it had happened in the 100 plus years of the sport.

Heck, 2000 Florida State and the system literally fucked over 2000 Miami far worse than what happened Saturday.

 

[Gator]

First off, didn't Michigan play the same number of P-5 schools as Georgia, Florida, and Alabama this season?

Second, the schedules are about to get even crazier!


The good news is that most teams now play a robust P-5 OOC schedule.

Michigan:
2024: Texas (SEC)
2025: Oklahoma (SEC)
2026: Oklahoma (SEC)
2027: Texas (SEC)

Georgia: (GT every year)
2024: Clemson (ACC)
2025: UCLA (ACC)
2026: UCLA (ACC), Louisville (ACC)
2027: Florida St (ACC), Louisville (ACC)

Florida:
2024: Texas (SEC)
2025: NONE
2026: NONE
2027: NONE

Say what?
First,
UF.................................................................................................................................UM
2024 Miami (FL), UCF, Florida State (& Texas)...................................Texas
2025 Miami (FL), Florida State......................................................................Oklahoma
2026 NC State, California, Florida State..................................................Oklahoma
2027 California, Florida State.......................................................................Texas
2028 Colorado, Arizona State, Florida State........................................Oklahoma
2029 Colorado, Florida State........................................................................????
2030 UCF, Florida State....................................................................................????
2031 Arizona State, Notre Dame, Florida State
2032 NC State, Notre Dame, Florida State
Had enough?

These aren't anomalous years.
Since 1990 in OOC regular season games, UM has played 25 AP top 25 teams vs 31 for UF (that's 24.0% more).
Since 1990 in OOC regular season games, UM has played 11 AP top 10 teams vs 18 for UF (that's 63.6% more).
Since 1990 in OOC regular season games, UM has played 8 AP top 5 teams vs 15 for UF (that's 87.5% more).
AND UF has a better W/L record in ALL categories than UM!

Plus UF plays better teams in-conference!
Since 1990, in IC regular season games, UM has played 89 AP top 25 teams vs 112 for UF (that's 25.8% more)
Since 1990, in IC regular season games, UM has played 48 AP top 25 teams vs 57 for UF (that's 18.8% more)
Since 1990, in IC regular season games, UM has played 21 AP top 25 teams vs 30 for UF (that's 42.9% more)

Don't hide GT in the heading.
Georgia:
2024: Clemson (ACC), Georgia Tech
2025: UCLA (B1G) remember? , Georgia Tech
2026: UCLA (B1G), Louisville (ACC), Georgia Tech
2027: Florida St (ACC), Louisville (ACC), Georgia Tech

 

[Wolverine830872]

So a school that has to set their schedule years in advance has to hope that one of those teams are ranked when they play? That's insane.

 

[belcherboy]

The problem with an SEC team’s criticism of others schedules, is that they only schedule 8 conference games. So they still often play 3 cupcake OOC games.

 

[belcherboy]

Say what?
First,
UF.................................................................................................................................UM
2024 Miami (FL), UCF, Florida State (& Texas)...................................Texas
2025 Miami (FL), Florida State......................................................................Oklahoma
2026 NC State, California, Florida State..................................................Oklahoma
2027 California, Florida State.......................................................................Texas
2028 Colorado, Arizona State, Florida State........................................Oklahoma
2029 Colorado, Florida State........................................................................????
2030 UCF, Florida State....................................................................................????
2031 Arizona State, Notre Dame, Florida State
2032 NC State, Notre Dame, Florida State
Had enough?

These aren't anomalous years.
Since 1990 in OOC regular season games, UM has played 25 AP top 25 teams vs 31 for UF (that's 24.0% more).
Since 1990 in OOC regular season games, UM has played 11 AP top 10 teams vs 18 for UF (that's 63.6% more).
Since 1990 in OOC regular season games, UM has played 8 AP top 5 teams vs 15 for UF (that's 87.5% more).
AND UF has a better W/L record in ALL categories than UM!

Plus UF plays better teams in-conference!
Since 1990, in IC regular season games, UM has played 89 AP top 25 teams vs 112 for UF (that's 25.8% more)
Since 1990, in IC regular season games, UM has played 48 AP top 25 teams vs 57 for UF (that's 18.8% more)
Since 1990, in IC regular season games, UM has played 21 AP top 25 teams vs 30 for UF (that's 42.9% more)

Don't hide GT in the heading.
Georgia:
2024: Clemson (ACC), Georgia Tech
2025: UCLA (B1G) remember? , Georgia Tech
2026: UCLA (B1G), Louisville (ACC), Georgia Tech
2027: Florida St (ACC), Louisville (ACC), Georgia Tech

So, where are you getting these stats or are we just suppose to trust you?

 

[tabascojet]

 

[countryroads316]

 

[belcherboy]

Here is why I don’t worry about anyone criticizing Michigan’s strength of schedule. They traditionally have had a good SOS.

SEC schools have it tough too, no doubt, but they do have the convenience of 4 OOC games, when I believe all other conferences have 3. Those OOC games are big money makers. Michigan played the same amount of P5 schools this season as Georgia, Florida, and Alabama (I didn’t look at anyone else’s schedule).

According to the numbers, being critical of Michigan’s schedule as compared to the others on the list is the equivalent of complaining that you had to work 20 minutes more on and 8 hour shift. It’s insignificant.

 

[Shanemansj13]

So a school that has to set their schedule years in advance has to hope that one of those teams are ranked when they play? That's insane.

That for the most part is all luck but at least schedule a good school, at least P5

East Carolina, UNLV and Bowling Green - 3 cupcakes

 

[Wolverine830872]

That for the most part is all luck but at least schedule a good school, at least P5

East Carolina, UNLV and Bowling Green - 3 cupcakes

Agreed, but that is something that the SEC has done for decades to their benefit. If you want a chance for the playoffs then this cupcake schedule has been beneficial. With an expanded playoffs, that calculus will change, though, and scheduling a tough OOC opponent could be beneficial. But if Michigan were simply trying to be top 12, then stomping on a bunch of lesser teams and then losing to Ohio State should still be enough to get in. Problem with that is that USC, Oregon, and UW are instant competition.

 

[ducky]

That's a bullshit tweet. I dont even need to look it up to know that.

There is no way that Vegas had FSU favored AFTER Alabama beat Georgia.

That might have been the odds before the game but it sure wasnt after the game. The post game shows after the Bama victory basically all said "tough decision but FSU is going to be out".

 

[belcherboy]

That for the most part is all luck but at least schedule a good school, at least P5

East Carolina, UNLV and Bowling Green - 3 cupcakes

Your wish is our command. Look at the next 4 seasons.

 

[Ron G]

I have said this on another thread. What happens if the Alabama or Texas #1 QB goes down in practice.
Or for that matter during the first game.

The rule should be written that if your QB goes down you are out of the playoffs, because that is now the de facto criteria.

This will not go away with 12 teams. Teams 8 through 16 will be approximately even. And unless all of the top four go undefeated, the loss will probably be to one of the teams in that 5 to16 range.

 

[tabascojet]

I have said this on another thread. What happens if the Alabama or Texas #1 QB goes down in practice.
Or for that matter during the first game.

The rule should be written that if your QB goes down you are out of the playoffs, because that is now the de facto criteria.

This will not go away with 12 teams. Teams 8 through 16 will be approximately even. And unless all of the top four go undefeated, the loss will probably be to one of the teams in that 5 to16 range.

Next year all of the current top 20 will either be in the sec or big10....cfb playoff commitee knows where their money comes from

 

[SignalBama]

Listen I am an Alabama fan so obviously a tad bit biased. But I don't think FSU was that hosed or screwed. The ACC this season just simply failed them. When you play a schedule that consists of teams that went a combined 77-79 and you are being compared against Alabama who played a schedule that consists of teams that went 98-61. That is a GLARING difference. When you take into account that Alabama beat a team that won 2 straight National Titles while winning 29 games in a row on top of that. FSU was simply let down by their conference. There is no outrage from them that they are also ranked behind a 1 loss Texas team anywhere that I see. They are only outraged because Alabama is ranked ahead of them. Yet Alabama's resume is unmatched right now even with 1 loss. Alabama has an argument to being the most deserving team in the 4 team playoff because of how jam packed with quality opponents that it was this season. Yet the outrage is they got selected over FSU. The outrage should be the weakness of the B1G schedules and Texas slotting ahead of FSU even though they upset Bama in Week 2. They really aren't getting punished as hard for their OU loss as Alabama is for their Texas loss.

 

[Stakesarehigh]

Listen I am an Alabama fan so obviously a tad bit biased. But I don't think FSU was that hosed or screwed. The ACC this season just simply failed them. When you play a schedule that consists of teams that went a combined 77-79 and you are being compared against Alabama who played a schedule that consists of teams that went 98-61. That is a GLARING difference. When you take into account that Alabama beat a team that won 2 straight National Titles while winning 29 games in a row on top of that. FSU was simply let down by their conference. There is no outrage from them that they are also ranked behind a 1 loss Texas team anywhere that I see. They are only outraged because Alabama is ranked ahead of them. Yet Alabama's resume is unmatched right now even with 1 loss. Alabama has an argument to being the most deserving team in the 4 team playoff because of how jam packed with quality opponents that it was this season. Yet the outrage is they got selected over FSU. The outrage should be the weakness of the B1G schedules and Texas slotting ahead of FSU even though they upset Bama in Week 2. They really aren't getting punished as hard for their OU loss as Alabama is for their Texas loss.

the computers don't agree with you on the BIG.