Penn State or Michigan? Which team is more likely to end Ohio State's Big Ten East dominance?

[Across The Field]

Who's that Big Ten team we routinely beat again and again in the Rose Bowl? Oh yes, Wisconsin.

You've beaten them twice in the Rose Bowl, by a combined 8 points. Maybe let's dial it back a bit.

 

[Across The Field]

I just disagree. Michigan is a different team at home, compared to the road. PSU and Wisconsin are also different teams on the road. Neither has won in AA in a long time.

michigan has faced Wisconsin at home twice in the last decade. They beat up a mediocre Wisconsin team two years ago, and four years ago they barely won. 2020 Wisconsin will be as good as 2016 Wisconsin, if not better, while 2020 michigan won't be nearly as good as 2016 michigan. I'm not sure how those two games instantly mean you can throw out the actual analysis of both teams this year and instantly say michigan is going to win.

2020 PSU might be their best team since 2005. They've got the best RB stable in the conference, and their defense is top 5 nationally. Meanwhile, michigan is going to be breaking in a new home-grown QB (something Harbaugh has yet to do successfully his entire time at michigan) with a defense that won't be any better than last year, if not maybe even worse. Again, I don't know what past teams with different players, as well as different coaches, have to do with 2020.

 

[MAIZEandBLUE09]

Games from the past just don't matter. PSU is projected to be a top 5 team this year. I don't see how michigan is going to score much on them. I think it'll be low-scoring, but PSU will win. Something like 21-10. Wisconsin is overall just a better team. They have a better QB situation, and they obviously know how to run the ball. I see Wisconsin taking care of business there too. Considering michigan will have to go to Minnesota after a 3 week stretch of PSU, Wisconsin, and MSU, I definitely give Minnesota the edge. They return a ton of talent on offense, and if they were able to score like they did on PSU last year, they won't have trouble with michigan, especially in Minneapolis.

Michigan has always played Penn State well under Harbaugh, except in 2017 with 3rd String O'Korn at the helm. And the two times we've played them in Ann Arbor under Harbaugh, including their best team in a decade who won the conference, we've blown the doors off them by a combined score of 91-17. In the 5 games under Harbaugh PSU is averaging just 20 points per game against us, we're averaging 30ppg.

It will be the best QB who wins the game IMO. Clifford was a decent college QB last year but I'm not afraid of what he could do to us like I am of Fields.

Wisconsin beat us with their running game, which they lose. Not only do they lose Taylor, but most of their offensive line. We also tend to play a lot better against more traditional offenses like Wisconsin's, even if they steamrolled us last year with Jonathan Taylor.

Honestly, Minnesota worries me more than either of those other teams because I think they'll play it up like their biggest rival to get the jug back and we play @Minn. That has overlooked trap game written all over it.

 

[MAIZEandBLUE09]

michigan has faced Wisconsin at home twice in the last decade. They beat up a mediocre Wisconsin team two years ago, and four years ago they barely won. 2020 Wisconsin will be as good as 2016 Wisconsin, if not better, while 2020 michigan won't be nearly as good as 2016 michigan. I'm not sure how those two games instantly mean you can throw out the actual analysis of both teams this year and instantly say michigan is going to win.

2020 PSU might be their best team since 2005. They've got the best RB stable in the conference, and their defense is top 5 nationally. Meanwhile, michigan is going to be breaking in a new home-grown QB (something Harbaugh has yet to do successfully his entire time at michigan) with a defense that won't be any better than last year, if not maybe even worse. Again, I don't know what past teams with different players, as well as different coaches, have to do with 2020.

Wisconsin loses Jonathan Taylor. And while Wisconsin has a history of getting NFL running backs, that's a lot of production to lose with average QB play on top of it.

 

[ericd7633]

michigan has faced Wisconsin at home twice in the last decade. They beat up a mediocre Wisconsin team two years ago, and four years ago they barely won. 2020 Wisconsin will be as good as 2016 Wisconsin, if not better, while 2020 michigan won't be nearly as good as 2016 michigan. I'm not sure how those two games instantly mean you can throw out the actual analysis of both teams this year and instantly say michigan is going to win.

2020 PSU might be their best team since 2005. They've got the best RB stable in the conference, and their defense is top 5 nationally. Meanwhile, michigan is going to be breaking in a new home-grown QB (something Harbaugh has yet to do successfully his entire time at michigan) with a defense that won't be any better than last year, if not maybe even worse. Again, I don't know what past teams with different players, as well as different coaches, have to do with 2020.

It's not like Michigan is going to be awful. I'm not even sure Wisconsin is better than Michigan next year, given what they've lost. Their O-line is a question mark and they lost Taylor and Cephus.

PSU I would project to be better.

I'm not throwing out the analysis. It's proven Michigan is better at home and PSU and Wisconsin aren't as good on the road. I mean most teams are like that. It isn't like Michigan has IU's roster or anything.

 

[Across The Field]

Michigan has always played Penn State well under Harbaugh, except in 2017 with 3rd String O'Korn at the helm. And the two times we've played them in Ann Arbor under Harbaugh, including their best team in a decade who won the conference, we've blown the doors off them by a combined score of 91-17. In the 5 games under Harbaugh PSU is averaging just 20 points per game against us, we're averaging 30ppg.

It will be the best QB who wins the game IMO. Clifford was a decent college QB last year but I'm not afraid of what he could do to us like I am of Fields.

Wisconsin beat us with their running game, which they lose. Not only do they lose Taylor, but most of their offensive line. We also tend to play a lot better against more traditional offenses like Wisconsin's, even if they steamrolled us last year with Jonathan Taylor.

Honestly, Minnesota worries me more than either of those other teams because I think they'll play it up like their biggest rival to get the jug back and we play @Minn. That has overlooked trap game written all over it.

Harbaugh has lost two of his last three to PSU, which makes sense as they're obviously a different team now than they were when Franklin first took over. This year will probably be their best defense in the Franklin era, and they have more than enough firepower at RB to do to michigan basically what Wisconsin did to them last year. While I don't think they beat you guys 35-7 like Wisconsin did, I could see it being that type of game. Also, it can't be stressed enough the huge question mark you guys have at QB. I'd be really worried if I were a michigan fan considering you don't have an experienced transfer starting this year. Harbaugh has had plenty of opportunities to develop QBs with high marks as prospects but has avoided it. That's a huge red flag, especially with you playing both PSU and Wisconsin so early in the year.

Wisconsin didn't lose their running game, they lost their RB. RB and OL have never, ever been issues for Wisconsin, so I don't see it suddenly going that way this year. Taylor started as a freshman and was a stud, and they're bringing in another stud 4* RB this year who I think could end up jumping right in, with depth behind him. They've recruited well on the OL in recent years and obviously never struggle to produce studs on top of studs.

Minnesota should absolutely worry you. I don't know that it'll be a trap game, as I see them being ranked ahead of you by then, and they're going to be very good on offense this year. Seeing what they did to PSU's defense last year, I see no reason they can't at least do that against michigan this year.

All in all, the shine has completely washed off of Harbaugh. It turns out losing Mattison and Washington was a bigger deal than you realized, and you're now also replacing two other talented defensive coaches for 2020. I see another step back for the defense this year, and the offense still is unproven at QB and RB.

 

[MAIZEandBLUE09]

Harbaugh has lost two of his last three to PSU, which makes sense as they're obviously a different team now than they were when Franklin first took over. This year will probably be their best defense in the Franklin era, and they have more than enough firepower at RB to do to michigan basically what Wisconsin did to them last year. While I don't think they beat you guys 35-7 like Wisconsin did, I could see it being that type of game. Also, it can't be stressed enough the huge question mark you guys have at QB. I'd be really worried if I were a michigan fan considering you don't have an experienced transfer starting this year. Harbaugh has had plenty of opportunities to develop QBs with high marks as prospects but has avoided it. That's a huge red flag, especially with you playing both PSU and Wisconsin so early in the year.

Wisconsin didn't lose their running game, they lost their RB. RB and OL have never, ever been issues for Wisconsin, so I don't see it suddenly going that way this year. Taylor started as a freshman and was a stud, and they're bringing in another stud 4* RB this year who I think could end up jumping right in, with depth behind him. They've recruited well on the OL in recent years and obviously never struggle to produce studs on top of studs.

Minnesota should absolutely worry you. I don't know that it'll be a trap game, as I see them being ranked ahead of you by then, and they're going to be very good on offense this year. Seeing what they did to PSU's defense last year, I see no reason they can't at least do that against michigan this year.

All in all, the shine has completely washed off of Harbaugh. It turns out losing Mattison and Washington was a bigger deal than you realized, and you're now also replacing two other talented defensive coaches for 2020. I see another step back for the defense this year, and the offense still is unproven at QB and RB.

Michigan has just alternated home and away losses, so has Penn State; which favors us at home this year. "two of the last three" is only really indicating that we've played two of the last three away.

Wisconsin lost 3 started on the offensive line and an NFL caliber RB; one of the best in the nation. It's unrealistic to think they'll be able to simply plug in a new guy and match that, they aren't Ohio State.

I don't think Mattison and Washington really did much in terms of what OSU is doing to us. OSU beat us by scoring 56, we scored 27; under normal circumstances a perfectly reasonable amount of offensive production to win, or be close, in a normal game. OSU is torching us because their offense has been a nuclear missile the last few years. We haven't held them to under 30 points since 2012. That's the ultimate issue. Hell, in 2018 we scored 38 points. That's great, right? Well, no, not when the other team scores 62. And Mattison/Washington was part of that defense. The only argument might be that they've brought in more elite talent on the recruiting side.

 

[Across The Field]

It's not like Michigan is going to be awful. I'm not even sure Wisconsin is better than Michigan next year, given what they've lost. Their O-line is a question mark and they lost Taylor and Cephus.

PSU I would project to be better.

I'm not throwing out the analysis. It's proven Michigan is better at home and PSU and Wisconsin aren't as good on the road. I mean most teams are like that. It isn't like Michigan has IU's roster or anything.

I'm not saying they're gonna be awful either, but 8-4 in the regular season wouldn't be shocking at all. With not only the amount of players gone after last year, but the continued coaching turnover on the defensive side (and the limitations with the offensive staff), I don't see this being a great year.

 

[Across The Field]

Michigan has just alternated home and away losses, so has Penn State; which favors us at home this year. "two of the last three" is only really indicating that we've played two of the last three away.

Wisconsin lost 3 started on the offensive line and an NFL caliber RB; one of the best in the nation. It's unrealistic to think they'll be able to simply plug in a new guy and match that, they aren't Ohio State.

I don't think Mattison and Washington really did much in terms of what OSU is doing to us. OSU beat us by scoring 56, we scored 27; under normal circumstances a perfectly reasonable amount of offensive production to win, or be close, in a normal game. OSU is torching us because their offense has been a nuclear missile the last few years. We haven't held them to under 30 points since 2012. That's the ultimate issue. Hell, in 2018 we scored 38 points. That's great, right? Well, no, not when the other team scores 62. And Mattison/Washington was part of that defense. The only argument might be that they've brought in more elite talent on the recruiting side.

It may be hard to believe, but Wisconsin is sitting better going into 2020 on the OL than they were going into 2019. Biadasz is the only tough loss. They return their LT, and have several other guys with plenty of experience. I don't see how it's unrealistic to think they're going to have a great OL considering they do basically every single year. They lost an NFL caliber RB, just like they did in 2013, 2014, 2015, and 2016. Over the last decade, there has been exactly one season where Wisconsin didn't have a RB rush for at least 1,385 yards. None of them were stud recruits. The RB coming this year is their highest rated RB recruit in 13 years. I see no reason they're going to flounder at the position.

When it comes to those two, I meant it's not a coincidence that OSU's defense went from being oftentimes laughably bad in 2018 to arguably the best in the nation in 2019 with all of the same personnel. They were a big part of it, especially Washington. Our LB play improved dramatically. Meanwhile, michigan took a fairly big step back last year. They played against 5 teams with good/great/elite offenses, and only performed well against one of them. Wisconsin did whatever they wanted for basically the entire game. PSU jumped out to 21 straight points before taking the gas off and nearly blowing it. OSU did OSU things again, Bama had no troubles even with their backup QB. You shut down ND, but they don't play well offensively against good defenses anyhow.

 

[MAIZEandBLUE09]

It may be hard to believe, but Wisconsin is sitting better going into 2020 on the OL than they were going into 2019. Biadasz is the only tough loss. They return their LT, and have several other guys with plenty of experience. I don't see how it's unrealistic to think they're going to have a great OL considering they do basically every single year. They lost an NFL caliber RB, just like they did in 2013, 2014, 2015, and 2016. Over the last decade, there has been exactly one season where Wisconsin didn't have a RB rush for at least 1,385 yards. None of them were stud recruits. The RB coming this year is their highest rated RB recruit in 13 years. I see no reason they're going to flounder at the position.

When it comes to those two, I meant it's not a coincidence that OSU's defense went from being oftentimes laughably bad in 2018 to arguably the best in the nation in 2019 with all of the same personnel. They were a big part of it, especially Washington. Our LB play improved dramatically. Meanwhile, michigan took a fairly big step back last year. They played against 5 teams with good/great/elite offenses, and only performed well against one of them. Wisconsin did whatever they wanted for basically the entire game. PSU jumped out to 21 straight points before taking the gas off and nearly blowing it. OSU did OSU things again, Bama had no troubles even with their backup QB. You shut down ND, but they don't play well offensively against good defenses anyhow.

OSU's defense had one bad season, and by "bad" I mean ranked 50th instead of top 10. Since harbaugh got here;

2015: 2
2016: 3
2017: 15
2018: 50
2019: 4

I tend to think that's more just OSU being OSU and having a more average year because it's hard to keep flipping rosters after losing guys to the NFL than Mattison came in and did something spectacular.

 

[ericd7633]

I'm not saying they're gonna be awful either, but 8-4 in the regular season wouldn't be shocking at all. With not only the amount of players gone after last year, but the continued coaching turnover on the defensive side (and the limitations with the offensive staff), I don't see this being a great year.

Well them going 8-4 would mean beating one of Wisconsin/PSU at home, unless you think they are winning one of at Washington/Minnesota/OSU. My guess would be 9-3. Loss to OSU. Split the four against PSU/Wisconsin/UW/Minnesota. But I'd give better odds of beating psu and Wisconsin than UW.

 

[Across The Field]

Well them going 8-4 would mean beating one of Wisconsin/PSU at home, unless you think they are winning one of at Washington/Minnesota/OSU. My guess would be 9-3. Loss to OSU. Split the four against PSU/Wisconsin/UW/Minnesota. But I'd give better odds of beating psu and Wisconsin than UW.

8-4 with losses to PSU, Wisconsin, Minnesota, OSU. They'll beat Washington IMO. Also, you're kidding about better odds of beating PSU and Wisconsin rather than Washington. That's a 5-loss team with a brand new HC, new QB, needing to replace a 1,000 yard RB, their top two receiving weapons (by a lot), and their top 3 tacklers on defense among others. If michigan loses to Washington, they very well could be looking at 6-6.

 

[Across The Field]

OSU's defense had one bad season, and by "bad" I mean ranked 50th instead of top 10. Since harbaugh got here;

2015: 2
2016: 3
2017: 15
2018: 50
2019: 4

I tend to think that's more just OSU being OSU and having a more average year because it's hard to keep flipping rosters after losing guys to the NFL than Mattison came in and did something spectacular.

It was an extremely awful season by all OSU measures. It was their worst defense in this century I believe. We flip our roster constantly, so that's not an excuse. It was all coaching, and I believe the majority of OSU fans were even calling that in 2018 and then last year when our defensive staff was completely re-vamped.

You're also ignoring the fact that you lost two other coaches, who I believe you were touting as being way more important last year than Mattison or Washington. They were replaced with nobodies. I think michigan takes another step back on defense this year, and Harbs' seat gets significantly hotter by season's end.

 

[ericd7633]

8-4 with losses to PSU, Wisconsin, Minnesota, OSU. They'll beat Washington IMO. Also, you're kidding about better odds of beating PSU and Wisconsin rather than Washington. That's a 5-loss team with a brand new HC, new QB, needing to replace a 1,000 yard RB, their top two receiving weapons (by a lot), and their top 3 tacklers on defense among others. If michigan loses to Washington, they very well could be looking at 6-6.

Honestly wouldn't surprise me if they were favored in all 3 games against PSU, Wisconsin and UW. Like you said UW loses a lot and the games against PSU and Wisconsin are at home.

 

[Across The Field]

Honestly wouldn't surprise me if they were favored in all 3 games against PSU, Wisconsin and UW. Like you said UW loses a lot and the games against PSU and Wisconsin are at home.

They'd better be favored against Washington. That's not a very good team, and it's not like their homefield advantage is that great. They lost three games at home last year, and lost a ton of talent along with their HC. They will not be favored against PSU, but they might be against Wisconsin. Either way, I see them going 1-2 in those 3 games, beating Washington. This just isn't a great michigan team, might be the worst one Harbaugh has had there.

 

[ericd7633]

They'd better be favored against Washington. That's not a very good team, and it's not like their homefield advantage is that great. They lost three games at home last year, and lost a ton of talent along with their HC. They will not be favored against PSU, but they might be against Wisconsin. Either way, I see them going 1-2 in those 3 games, beating Washington. This just isn't a great michigan team, might be the worst one Harbaugh has had there.

According to Bovada, Michigan is -1 against UW, -3.5 against PSU and Wisconsin. Which is about in line with what I thought and said earlier I'd give better odds against PSU and Wisconsin than UW.

 

[Across The Field]

According to Bovada, Michigan is -1 against UW, -3.5 against PSU and Wisconsin. Which is about in line with what I thought and said earlier I'd give better odds against PSU and Wisconsin than UW.

It's also June. I remember this time last year you were saying Iowa State would be favored against Iowa and that didn't happen either, so those odds are meaningless right now.

 

[ericd7633]

It's also June. I remember this time last year you were saying Iowa State would be favored against Iowa and that didn't happen either, so those odds are meaningless right now.

June or not my whole point going in pretty much is in line with what Vegas is thinking. Obviously Vegas isn't always right, but you're acting as though Michigan beating PSU would be some huge upset.

 

[Across The Field]

June or not my whole point going in pretty much is in line with what Vegas is thinking. Obviously Vegas isn't always right, but you're acting as though Michigan beating PSU would be some huge upset.

It would undoubtedly be an upset. PSU will have an early test against a very possibly ranked VT team which, assuming they win, would all but assure they are a top 5-6 team. michigan should beat Washington, but I have them losing to Wisconsin the week before PSU, which would likely put them somewhere around 18-20. So, yeah, that's a pretty big upset.

 

[We Are Decent]

People acting like Michigan has a home-field advantage this year despite Whitmer still being governor.