July Trade Deadline

[LHG]

This is going to be a very difficult July for the FO. What will they consider as 'in contention'? After the first 62 games of the season the Central Division has 3 teams at 10 games over 500 or better. IMHO they may be the strongest of the NL divisions. I'm guessing at least one WC from there. So ... that means we have to be in contention for the NL West title or the one remaining WC spot. And we'll have to make this decision with about 80-85 games left to play.
If we are buying in July it will have to be for an impact player (probably a starter) .... but if we are chasing rather defending our position ... it makes it all the more difficult. Having Bum and Cuerto at full health will help. But I'd rather not give away our future trying to wipe out a 3-5 game lead by the D-Backs.


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It becomes a double-whammy too. They blow past the luxury tax and trade away the few prospects we have that are valuable

Thanks gentlemen. So what is the general sentiment amongst us posters on the forum in regards to being buyers? I think we've talked about it a little bit but haven't really shared our thoughts (and maybe I'm just forgetting about them) on whether we want the FO to be all in on buying this trade deadline? If the team is in first place, or close to first place (I think, as of right now, both WC are out of the picture but things can change in a month) by this time next month, do we want ownership to forget the threshold and ship off the remaining prospects for one last chance at playoff glory?

 

[tzill]

I know that there have been a lot of rumblings that the FO is going to work hard to stay under the luxury tax threshold this year and not pick up anyone at the trade deadline if that puts them over the threshold. But if the Giants somehow get into first place in the NL West before July 31st, how much of a possibility do you all think that the ownership decides to go all in and forget the threshold?

Per the owner I talked to....zero chance.

 

[calsnowskier]

Per the owner I talked to....zero chance.

I tend to agree with this.

Even if they did decide to “go all in”, what does that mean? Trade Bart? Trade Ramos? Trade Duggar and/or Shaw? For what? A SP? That would add a fuck-ton of salary. And do any of our available prospects pull an Ace-level SP?

 

[SF11704]

From my perspective .... I was one of the people that wanted to go in to a full rebuild. I was willing to accept the 'building' years and wanted to see the team develop. It so happens that what the FO did was probably MY worst nightmare. We went after some pretty good (not great) vets to try and fill our gaps for one last run. Longo and Cutch are good but are a few years removed from what they once were. The FO was hoping for lightning in a bottle. I'm not sure it's enough. Longo and Cutch will never been in any rebuild window, Is that a waste of money and time? I don't know. I personally feel that both Bum and Cuerto are not in our rebuild window either. By the time we are ready ... they will be well past their prime. They are currently some very valuable trade chips though! How many of our prospects are we willing to gamble on 'one last chance'? Would we even have the depth to advance in the playoffs? Some of these teams have 'everything'!

If Tzill is correct (and i think he is) .... doing all we can to stay under the cap will also limit our availability to land a real impact player .... or at least one we can hold on to for another year or so. . IMHO it will be a rental at best.

As A fan I don't mind a rebuild if I know that is what they are doing ... I just don't want to live through a decade of vet re-threads and 'one last chance' ...

 

[SFGRTB]

Thanks gentlemen. So what is the general sentiment amongst us posters on the forum in regards to being buyers? I think we've talked about it a little bit but haven't really shared our thoughts (and maybe I'm just forgetting about them) on whether we want the FO to be all in on buying this trade deadline? If the team is in first place, or close to first place (I think, as of right now, both WC are out of the picture but things can change in a month) by this time next month, do we want ownership to forget the threshold and ship off the remaining prospects for one last chance at playoff glory?

Knowing a full teardown is never in the cards, I think I'd rather see them just stay course this season. Preserve as many assets as you can for an all-out push next offseason and beyond. That includes re-setting the luxury tax bill, which I think is a huge goal of the team. They expect to be aggressive this offseason and probably jump deep into the luxury tax for years to come, so they want to reset that now before that wave.

If they're going down that road they'll need as much production from the minors they can have, or else we see years like last season.

So if they go into this deadline and trade Shaw, Ramos, Duggar, Suarez etc. to acquire a guy or guys that pushes the team into the $200M range, that would just be too risky of an investment. If they end up missing the playoffs, it just sets the team back years. Whereas if they stay course (maybe add a really cheap starter that doesn't push them over), even if they miss the playoffs their in a good position going forward

 

[SFGRTB]

From my perspective .... I was one of the people that wanted to go in to a full rebuild. I was willing to accept the 'building' years and wanted to see the team develop. It so happens that what the FO did was probably MY worst nightmare. We went after some pretty good (not great) vets to try and fill our gaps for one last run. Longo and Cutch are good but are a few years removed from what they once were. The FO was hoping for lightning in a bottle. I'm not sure it's enough. Longo and Cutch will never been in any rebuild window, Is that a waste of money and time? I don't know. I personally feel that both Bum and Cuerto are not in our rebuild window either. By the time we are ready ... they will be well past their prime. They are currently some very valuable trade chips though! How many of our prospects are we willing to gamble on 'one last chance'? Would we even have the depth to advance in the playoffs? Some of these teams have 'everything'!

If Tzill is correct (and i think he is) .... doing all we can to stay under the cap will also limit our availability to land a real impact player .... or at least one we can hold on to for another year or so. . IMHO it will be a rental at best.

As A fan I don't mind a rebuild if I know that is what they are doing ... I just don't want to live through a decade of vet re-threads and 'one last chance' ...

I don't have much of a problem with the Cutch and Longo trades because they weren't THAT detrimental to the future (they dealt from positions of depth in both cases) but we really have to accept that a full tear-down is not going to happen. Evans, Sabean, Bochy and Bear have all said time and time again that they are committed to winning every season and specifically that a rebuild is not in the franchise's best interests.

 

[SF11704]

I don't have much of a problem with the Cutch and Longo trades because they weren't THAT detrimental to the future (they dealt from positions of depth in both cases) but we really have to accept that a full tear-down is not going to happen. Evans, Sabean, Bochy and Bear have all said time and time again that they are committed to winning every season and specifically that a rebuild is not in the franchise's best interests.

And this is where I see the biggest iproblem ... if you are not willing to rebuild than your only real option ... is to purchase what is needed to field the 'base level' team. This has to be a team capable of winning 90 games and has depth to go into the playoffs. Not impossible ... but also not cheap. You will definitely cross the threshold trying to fill some of our 'missing' pieces. But once you have the base level established ... than you can move into a maintenance mode and just go after the pieces that are under performing and/or getting old. Not impossible .... but .... you have to spend to get there.

You can't buy a WS ... but I think if money is no object ... you can buy a playoff slot. With enough money you can build a team that will perform well over a 162 game schedule.

 

[tzill]

And this is where I see the biggest iproblem ... if you are not willing to rebuild than your only real option ... is to purchase what is needed to field the 'base level' team. This has to be a team capable of winning 90 games and has depth to go into the playoffs. Not impossible ... but also not cheap. You will definitely cross the threshold trying to fill some of our 'missing' pieces. But once you have the base level established ... than you can move into a maintenance mode and just go after the pieces that are under performing and/or getting old. Not impossible .... but .... you have to spend to get there.

You can't buy a WS ... but I think if money is no object ... you can buy a playoff slot. With enough money you can build a team that will perform well over a 162 game schedule.

I don't think that's their philosophy at all. I think they are looking to base the team on guys from the farm and occasionally add in a vet at a position of need (most cost effective is always going to be pitching). I think they are banking on getting better at drafting and developing. I think the days of signing a guy like Cueto or Pence are over. Unless the farm has a brilliant couple of years and frees up payroll to sign FAs. As is, they will look to sign their own farm guys who get good (Bum, Posey, Belt, Panik, Crawford, Strickland) and sprinkle in the occasional midlevel FA (Longo, Cutch).

Tear down isn't in their DNA. And with that park and these fans, it shouldn't be.

 

[LHG]

I don't think that's their philosophy at all. I think they are looking to base the team on guys from the farm and occasionally add in a vet at a position of need (most cost effective is always going to be pitching). I think they are banking on getting better at drafting and developing. I think the days of signing a guy like Cueto or Pence are over. Unless the farm has a brilliant couple of years and frees up payroll to sign FAs. As is, they will look to sign their own farm guys who get good (Bum, Posey, Belt, Panik, Crawford, Strickland) and sprinkle in the occasional midlevel FA (Longo, Cutch).

Tear down isn't in their DNA. And with that park and these fans, it shouldn't be.

At first, I read the end of that last sentence in the first paragraph as medieval FA.

 

[SFGRTB]

And this is where I see the biggest iproblem ... if you are not willing to rebuild than your only real option ... is to purchase what is needed to field the 'base level' team. This has to be a team capable of winning 90 games and has depth to go into the playoffs. Not impossible ... but also not cheap. You will definitely cross the threshold trying to fill some of our 'missing' pieces. But once you have the base level established ... than you can move into a maintenance mode and just go after the pieces that are under performing and/or getting old. Not impossible .... but .... you have to spend to get there.

You can't buy a WS ... but I think if money is no object ... you can buy a playoff slot. With enough money you can build a team that will perform well over a 162 game schedule.

They have shown a willingness to spend big money though. The payroll has increased every year since 2008.

In 10 years they have added nearly $125 million in payroll from $76m in 2008 to nearly $200m this year.

Right now I think their goal is to get under the luxury tax this year and reset the penalties. Then they don't feel as bad blowing right past it going forward.

 

[calsnowskier]

At first, I read the end of that last sentence in the first paragraph as medieval FA.

He would be one hell of a free agent.

 

[Hangman]

Trade away vets for prospects. Problem is the vets we have are not worth their contracts. I wonder what we could get for Bumgarner. Maybe we can force a team to take Samardzja and Cueto just to get Bumgarner and we will be free of those god awful contracts. It would be worth it. Throw in Belt and Melancon too. We might even get a prospect out of it.

Problem is noone would want these bums

 

[LHG]

Trade away vets for prospects. Problem is the vets we have are not worth their contracts. I wonder what we could get for Bumgarner. Maybe we can force a team to take Samardzja and Cueto just to get Bumgarner and we will be free of those god awful contracts. It would be worth it. Throw in Belt and Melancon too. We might even get a prospect out of it.

Problem is noone would want these bums

That may have been true at the end of last season but there are a few veterans that would be quite attractive right. Crawford is at all time high in terms of value. The Giants probably could not get a better deal on him than they could next month. Belt, once he is back from the dl, has value too, especially since his numbers have trended up this year while other big name 1st basemen have trended down. Cueto, is healthy, could be traded for a decent package. He was lights out before he went on the dl. Obviously, his TJ status makes him untradeable at the moment, but if he is set to be activated at the end of this month and continues to post ridiculous numbers, the Giants could find a contender willing to give up some prospects for him.
Now I don't know off the top of my head which of these guys have full/limited no-trade clauses but this is something I think we all know the FO won't do. Regardless of whether they will be buyers, we all now that they won't be sellers. We've all talked about the value in a tear down but the FO and ownership have made it clear that they will never do a tear down/rebuild. Except for maybe McCutchen, the vets will be with the team until their contracts end.

 

[tzill]

Trade away vets for prospects. Problem is the vets we have are not worth their contracts. I wonder what we could get for Bumgarner. Maybe we can force a team to take Samardzja and Cueto just to get Bumgarner and we will be free of those god awful contracts. It would be worth it. Throw in Belt and Melancon too. We might even get a prospect out of it.

Problem is noone would want these bums

This is a silly post.

JC has tons of value if we wanted to trade him, we wouldn't need to "force" anyone to take his contract. If Shark comes back and looks like average Shark, then he'd have value too. Belt has tons of value. MM would be tough to move unless he regains closer form.

Bottom line: they aren't going to trade any of those guys. Not because they CAN'T but because they don't WANT to.

 

[SFGRTB]

Probably not going to happen, so it might not even be worth bringing up, but Jon Gray would be an interesting trade target.

The Rockies just sent him down to AAA and he's had a tough year on the surface, but his underlying numbers are pretty good, suggesting a bit of unluckiness. His K and BB rates are very good, his velocity is still there. He's just giving up a ton of hits. That's obviously bad, but there's reason to believe a regression could be coming.

His BABIP is very high at .386.

His line drive percentage is up, while his groundball percentage is down. But his flyball percentage is down as well.

To get even deeper, according to statcast, Gray's expected batting average, expected slugging and expected OBA are significantly lower than his actual BA, SLG and OBA. Here's statcats' definition:

Expected Outcome stats help to remove defense and ballpark from the equation to express the skill shown at the moment of batted ball contact. By looking at the exit velocity and launch angle of each batted ball, a Hit Probability is assigned based on the outcomes of comparable historic balls in play. By accumulating the expected outcomes of each batted ball with actual strikeouts, walks and hit by pitches, Expected Batting Average (xBA), Expected Slugging (xSLG), and (most importantly) Expected Weighted On-Base Average (xwOBA) tell the story of a player's season based on quality of and amount of contact, not outcomes.

Gray's expected SLG% is 75 points lower than his actual SLG% (.455 vs. .380), which is the 4th largest gap among starters in MLB. His expected batting average is 44 points lower than his actual BA, 6th among starters.

Now he's not perfect. His expected BA, SLG and OBA are still middle of the pack, but they more or less line up with last year when he had a 3.67 ERA, 3.18 FIP and 3.45 xFIP. This year he has a 5.77 ERA, but a 3.07 FIP and 2.77 xFIP.

He's not a front-line starter, but a comfortable 3. Pretty similar to Jeff Samardzija.

The Rockies have given no indications that he's available, and even if he was I doubt they'd want to sell low to a division rival. But he's a guy that could make sense if somehow he is on the market. He's also the type of guy the Giants should be looking at. Cheap, younger dudes with some warts.

(also, if any of you play fantasy baseball, he's a solid buy-low guy right now)

 

[LHG]

Heyman's Latest: Mets, Wheeler, deGrom, Syndergaard, Jackson, Phils, Braves

 

[calsnowskier]

Heyman's Latest: Mets, Wheeler, deGrom, Syndergaard, Jackson, Phils, Braves

That’s ridiculous. Who would even think of something like that??

Wow. That’s harsh.

Should the Giants consider picking him up after he clears?

 

[LHG]

That’s ridiculous. Who would even think of something like that??

That's the problem - that kind of quirky sarcasm is supposed to be too far beyond reality, making it funny. Seeing that rumor just makes it sick.

 

[calsnowskier]

That's the problem - that kind of quirky sarcasm is supposed to be too far beyond reality, making it funny. Seeing that rumor just makes it sick.

Yeah. When the Giants FO starts using my sarcastic f-wad posts as directional fodder, you know we are in trouble.

 

[SFGRTB]

The price for controllable relievers is high.... too bad Strickland screwed up his hand. would have been a real nice trade piece. Still, Watson, Smith, heck even Dyson to a lesser extent could fetch a nice piece.

Both these Red Sox guys have serious red flags. Chavis just got off an 80-game PED suspension, has suspect defense at 1st and 3rd and has contact issues. Groome was a high-ceiling first round pick in 2016, but has hardly pitched due to injuries (including TJ surgery this May). He's a long ways off, and has extreme risk.

BUT, both guys are the Red Sox' top prospects (doesn't say much) and fringe top-100 dudes. I'd personally stay away from both, but that's the going rate for a middle reliever right now (albeit with 4 more years of control, which helps).