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2025 Rosterbation

msgkings322

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Sure, but it’s not just a matter of money. It’s a matter of trading prospects too.
And some teams do it and some don't. I know which one we are.

Prospects...Luciano used to be untouchable LOL
 

calsnowskier

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In a vacuum, I'd pick Burnes over Snell due to consistency and lack of health issues so far. But the idea that the Giants didn't even really seem to consider Snell (and, if they did, he signed with the rival after saying he'd like to stay in SF shows what a punk he is), whose signing wouldn't forfeit draft picks, while getting in the rumor mill for an expensive pitcher whose signing would require forfeiting draft picks, is a bit frustrating.

With that said, Burnes hasn't signed with the Giants (yet) and we don't know much of the story on Snell. So its very likely that the comparison isn't worth the frustration right now.
If we avoid the one-year opt out, I wouldn’t be too upset with locking in Burnes. Having 2 (3 with Ray?) Aces in the rotation takes a LOT of pressure off the rest of the rotation and the bully, and subsequently, the offense. And if we can get 3 years of near Ace performance out of a 3rd round pick, that is good value.
 

calsnowskier

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I think this ‘thin farm’ narrative needs to be changed. The farm is much closer to middle of the pack now.
Based on what?

Even our STUD is hardly considered a league-wide blue chipper. And our #2 hope isn’t even sniffing league wide top 100 lists.

We MAY be deep, but if it doesn’t produce, it doesn’t matter.
 

LHG

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I think this ‘thin farm’ narrative needs to be changed. The farm is much closer to middle of the pack now.
Granted, this is limited on my part, but from what little I've seen, most "experts" wouldn't put the farm middle of the pack. I do think the farm has improved in recent years but it still seems to be in the lowest tier (21st-30th). Regardless where they rank, it has been fun to see more players looking at least like fringe big league players but a lot of prospects' careers are still dying in AA.
 

filosofy29

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If we avoid the one-year opt out, I wouldn’t be too upset with locking in Burnes. Having 2 (3 with Ray?) Aces in the rotation takes a LOT of pressure off the rest of the rotation and the bully, and subsequently, the offense. And if we can get 3 years of near Ace performance out of a 3rd round pick, that is good value.
I only want Burnes if we’re going after Adames level player as well. I don’t think we’re all that close to the Dogs and a Burnes/HSK offseason doesn’t really move the needle for me. And based on what’s been said by Baggs (he’s a doosh, but seems to have an in with the brass), I don’t think we’re doing that.

If we go all in, I’m good with it (Burnes/Adames/HSK)…if we don’t, and I hate myself for saying this…but we should see what the kids got and sell off Webb and Chapman to the highest bidders.
 

calsnowskier

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I only want Burnes if we’re going after Adames level player as well. I don’t think we’re all that close to the Dogs and a Burnes/HSK offseason doesn’t really move the needle for me. And based on what’s been said by Baggs (he’s a doosh, but seems to have an in with the brass), I don’t think we’re doing that.

If we go all in, I’m good with it (Burnes/Adames/HSK)…if we don’t, and I hate myself for saying this…but we should see what the kids got and sell off Webb and Chapman to the highest bidders.
We need to have something to attract asses to fill seats. Selling Chappy and Webb will not happen.

I think QOs work where you lose a 3rd for the first you sign and a 2nd for the 2nd. I don’t want to sign a second. As you said, we aren’t close. But 2s and 3s don’t often turn in to anything, so I am good with sacrificing one for a player that can attract asses and help kids. And having a kick ass rotation will give us a punchers chance of surprisingly doing something and putting a product on the field worth watching.
 

msgkings322

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We need to have something to attract asses to fill seats. Selling Chappy and Webb will not happen.

I think QOs work where you lose a 3rd for the first you sign and a 2nd for the 2nd. I don’t want to sign a second. As you said, we aren’t close. But 2s and 3s don’t often turn in to anything, so I am good with sacrificing one for a player that can attract asses and help kids. And having a kick ass rotation will give us a punchers chance of surprisingly doing something and putting a product on the field worth watching.
Not to mention there’s no way Posey starts his tenure as GM with a big splashy signing of a guy talking about building a winner here by dumping him right away LOL. Can you imagine the rep we’d have with future FAs?

I’ve been banging the 3 aces drum since mid season. Said if not Snell get another like Burnes. It’s our franchise edge, it’s how we got 3 titles (pitching). Still need competent hitting of course but they need to have elite pitching. And in a couple years hopefully the farm produces the next aces.
 

LHG

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We need to have something to attract asses to fill seats. Selling Chappy and Webb will not happen.

I think QOs work where you lose a 3rd for the first you sign and a 2nd for the 2nd. I don’t want to sign a second. As you said, we aren’t close. But 2s and 3s don’t often turn in to anything, so I am good with sacrificing one for a player that can attract asses and help kids. And having a kick ass rotation will give us a punchers chance of surprisingly doing something and putting a product on the field worth watching.
Signing one QO FA would cost the 2nd and 5th round picks for the Giants and $1M in international money. Signing a 2nd QO FA would then cost the Giants the 3rd and 6th round picks as well.

From MLBTR:

"Competitive Balance Tax Payors: Dodgers, Giants, Mets, Phillies, Braves, Astros, Rangers, Yankees

As one would expect, these teams face the stiffest penalties. For signing a QO-rejecting free agent, these clubs would have to give up $1MM in international bonus pool money, as well as two draft picks — their second- and fifth-highest selections in the 2025 draft.
...
Should a club sign more than one qualified free agent, they will have to additionally forfeit their next-highest draft pick.
...
The luxury tax payors would face the heftier penalty of losing four draft picks — their second, third, fifth, and sixth-highest selections."

As for 2nd, 3rd and 5th round picks, here are the Giants' picks for the past 10 years:
 

calsnowskier

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Signing one QO FA would cost the 2nd and 5th round picks for the Giants and $1M in international money. Signing a 2nd QO FA would then cost the Giants the 3rd and 6th round picks as well.

From MLBTR:

"Competitive Balance Tax Payors: Dodgers, Giants, Mets, Phillies, Braves, Astros, Rangers, Yankees

As one would expect, these teams face the stiffest penalties. For signing a QO-rejecting free agent, these clubs would have to give up $1MM in international bonus pool money, as well as two draft picks — their second- and fifth-highest selections in the 2025 draft.
...
Should a club sign more than one qualified free agent, they will have to additionally forfeit their next-highest draft pick.
...
The luxury tax payors would face the heftier penalty of losing four draft picks — their second, third, fifth, and sixth-highest selections."

As for 2nd, 3rd and 5th round picks, here are the Giants' picks for the past 10 years:
The Giants had a 5th and 6th rounder in the ‘24 draft. How is that possible?
 

LHG

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The Giants had a 5th and 6th rounder in the ‘24 draft. How is that possible?
I don't remember the rules for last season's QO rejecting offers or if the Giants were competitive balance tax payors after 2023. I assume that they were not so the penalty for signing a QO FA was lower for them last offseason.
 

filosofy29

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Not to mention there’s no way Posey starts his tenure as GM with a big splashy signing of a guy talking about building a winner here by dumping him right away LOL. Can you imagine the rep we’d have with future FAs?

I’ve been banging the 3 aces drum since mid season. Said if not Snell get another like Burnes. It’s our franchise edge, it’s how we got 3 titles (pitching). Still need competent hitting of course but they need to have elite pitching. And in a couple years hopefully the farm produces the next aces.
This is entirely true. I was playing armchair GM. Posey wouldn’t do it for two reasons, one he’s too competitive and two, it’s PR suicide.
 

filosofy29

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We need to have something to attract asses to fill seats. Selling Chappy and Webb will not happen.

I think QOs work where you lose a 3rd for the first you sign and a 2nd for the 2nd. I don’t want to sign a second. As you said, we aren’t close. But 2s and 3s don’t often turn in to anything, so I am good with sacrificing one for a player that can attract asses and help kids. And having a kick ass rotation will give us a punchers chance of surprisingly doing something and putting a product on the field worth watching.
Meant to quote yours and MSG’s but screwed up. Basically yes you both are right. I was just thinking what would be potentially the best play moving forward in a hypothetical manner.
 

tzill

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And some teams do it and some don't. I know which one we are.

Prospects...Luciano used to be untouchable LOL
I don't know how untouchable Luci was, but I can tell you Buster Posey was.
 

msgkings322

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I don't know how untouchable Luci was, but I can tell you Buster Posey was.
You know exactly how untouchable Luciano was.
 

tzill

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Based on what?

Even our STUD is hardly considered a league-wide blue chipper. And our #2 hope isn’t even sniffing league wide top 100 lists.

We MAY be deep, but if it doesn’t produce, it doesn’t matter.
2024 preseason rank: 17
2023 midseason rank: 14
2023 preseason rank: 17
2022 midseason rank: 18
 

tzill

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One of the many qualities that the Giants need with any prospective starting pitching target is durability. Giants starters have thrown fewer innings than any rotation unit in baseball since the start of 2023 and that's a trend they'd probably like to avoid again...
 

tzill

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The cost for starting pitching is going to be pretty high this offseason. Frankie Montas getting $17M AAV after a down year does help set many of the other SP up for a nice payday.
 

LHG

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The cost for starting pitching is going to be pretty high this offseason. Frankie Montas getting $17M AAV after a down year does help set many of the other SP up for a nice payday.
I find it a bit odd that the Cubs and Mets both went out and signed back end guys for so much yesterday. Weren't they essentially setting the market by making these moves? Were they really getting no traction on higher end FA pitchers that they felt the only move to make on December 2nd was to sign 4th/5th starters to a lot of money?
 

tzill

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I find it a bit odd that the Cubs and Mets both went out and signed back end guys for so much yesterday. Weren't they essentially setting the market by making these moves? Were they really getting no traction on higher end FA pitchers that they felt the only move to make on December 2nd was to sign 4th/5th starters to a lot of money?
It is curious. Then again, they have access to vast information we do not. Maybe they knew they weren't getting Burnes or Fried and moved quickly to secure what they could.

One area of the Giants roster that they'll likely need to break up is the Wilmer Flores, LaMonte Wade Jr., and Jerar Encarnación group at 1B/DH. That's a lot of roster spots and not enough defensive versatility/production.
 
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