2024 Rosterbation

[SF11704]

I sure think it is a possibility, so we might have to overpay.

I don't think it's as simple as that .... if we over bid and DO NOT sign any of these players .... we have most likely lost out on any other FAs we may have had interest in.

If we offer 550M for Othani and another 250M for Yamamoto we have actually incurred a financial obligation of 800M without any commitment from either of them. I don't think they go after any other FAs until the dust clears on these two offers. I just don't see them (or any team) picking up a 1B monetary obligation.

If they both walk .... we lose them both .... get our 800M back .... but I doubt there will be many top tier FAs left to go after. This is a very tough position to be in again ....this would be very similar to what happened with trying to get Aaron Judge .....

IMHO ... I'd go after Yamamoto with everything we have .... and use Othani's money for as much offense as we can buy. I just don't see Othani coming to us. I really don't think he will be all about money ... more about winning .... hate to say it .... but the Dodgers are a better fit ... just would hate to lock up 500M on a lost recruiting cause ....

 

[LHG]

I don't think it's as simple as that .... if we over bid and DO NOT sign any of these players .... we have most likely lost out on any other FAs we may have had interest in.

If we offer 550M for Othani and another 250M for Yamamoto we have actually incurred a financial obligation of 800M without any commitment from either of them. I don't think they go after any other FAs until the dust clears on these two offers. I just don't see them (or any team) picking up a 1B monetary obligation.

If they both walk .... we lose them both .... get our 800M back .... but I doubt there will be many top tier FAs left to go after. This is a very tough position to be in again ....this would be very similar to what happened with trying to get Aaron Judge .....

IMHO ... I'd go after Yamamoto with everything we have .... and use Othani's money for as much offense as we can buy. I just don't see Othani coming to us. I really don't think he will be all about money ... more about winning .... hate to say it .... but the Dodgers are a better fit ... just would hate to lock up 500M on a lost recruiting cause ....

That is a good assessment but this free agent class is so weak, they won't miss much if they put all their eggs in these baskets. Bellinger, for example, is the 2nd ranked free agent by MLBTR and he has some worts. Those last three years in LA were rough. He looked good this last year but can he sustain that kind of production for even 3 years?

 

[tzill]

Do you think we lose out if we are not outbid? I understand that there are other reasons besides money for a player to go elsewhere. In these cases, do you think a contending team offering slightly less money will land them?

Slightly less, maybe not. But, I'd expect that the other team will match our offer and Yama or Ohtani might prefer that team. I'd be ok with that.

 

[SF11704]

Slightly less, maybe not. But, I'd expect that the other team will match our offer and Yama or Ohtani might prefer that team. I'd be ok with that.

I agree ... I don't see us being outbid ... I don't think money will be an issue .... .

We need at least 1 of the 2 ...... if we lose both than I think the FO has to rethink their strategy moving forward ... and the only path I see then is .... trades ....

 

[sf1giantfan]

Sadly I don’t think trades get us enough and would weaken our farm. And I agree Ohtani is not realistic, but we can Jack up the price for the dodgers to overpay. I prefer the Angels where he might be comfortable still. So getting Yama would be ideal leaving money left over for offense with a possible trade(s). We need to bend over backwards for him. Whatever he needs besides the money.

 

[LHG]

That would be an interesting experiment - 3 starting pitchers and a DH all from Japan. That would cost a lot of money though! MLBTR predicts that Imanaga will be signed at approximately 5 year, $85 million (plus a $14 million posting fee), Yamamoto at approximately 9 years, $225 million (plus an unknown posting fee) and Ohtani at 12 years, $528 million. They rank Ohtani as 1, Yamamoto as 3 and Imanaga as 10 on their Top 50 free agents available this offseason. Just signing those 3 would be pretty much unlikely, even for the Dodgers or Yankees, as it could easily cost $86 million in year 1 for those 3 combined.
Uwasawa is probably come in much cheaper but he'll still likely cost something around 5 years, $60 million (probably more). That is $100 million for 4 players. Not likely when the current roster already has $134 million already on the table, unless the ownership group is okay with a payroll in at the same range as the Padres' 2023 payroll.

May have way overestimated what Uwasawa will get on the market. Just read someone project a 2 year, $10 million deal for him and called him "fringey". He may only be worth getting if that gives the Giants a good chance at Yamamoto. Unfortunately, Uwasawa was posted after Yamomoto so there is no need for Uwasawa to sign first. In fact, he'll probably wait out both Yamamoto and, possibly, Imanaga before signing as he may get better offers then.

 

[sf1giantfan]

I hope none of our Japanese pitcher hopefuls don’t read this article about San Francisco being the 10th most expensive city to live in.

The world’s most expensive cities in which to live in 2023

An economic powerhouse in Asia and a European stalwart are tied for first place as the priciest cities in the world.

www.yahoo.com

 

[LHG]

I hope none of our Japanese pitcher hopefuls don’t read this article about San Francisco being the 10th most expensive city to live in.

The world’s most expensive cities in which to live in 2023

An economic powerhouse in Asia and a European stalwart are tied for first place as the priciest cities in the world.

www.yahoo.com

I don't think that would be a factor at all. Yamamoto is going to get paid enough to live in luxury no matter what city he is in.

 

[sf1giantfan]

I don't think that would be a factor at all. Yamamoto is going to get paid enough to live in luxury no matter what city he is in.

Probably true.

 

[calsnowskier]

I don't think that would be a factor at all. Yamamoto is going to get paid enough to live in luxury no matter what city he is in.

That’s my thought. When you hit a certain level, you are going to pay for your lifestyle no matter what. Uber-expensive in KC is similar to Uber-expensive in Atlanta is similar to Uber-expensive in SF etc. But SF is still beautiful (naturally, even if the political situation is “problematic”), so you would think that should factor in as a positive over Atlanta or Detroit.

 

[tzill]

Keep seeing on twitter that the Giants are talking to the Pads about Soto.

I want a Yamamoto/Soto offseason.

BRING ME ALL THE OTOS!

 

[sf1giantfan]

Keep seeing on twitter that the Giants are talking to the Pads about Soto.

I want a Yamamoto/Soto offseason.

BRING ME ALL THE OTOS!

Only one year of Soto, free agent after 2024 season.

 

[LHG]

Keep seeing on twitter that the Giants are talking to the Pads about Soto.

I want a Yamamoto/Soto offseason.

BRING ME ALL THE OTOS!

OTO all good?

Being that it would be an intra division trade, I would assume the return would be steep. Hope the Giants can ink him to a long term deal afterward but I heard he's represented by Boras and it would probably take a $500 million deal to keep him beyond 2024.

 

[calsnowskier]

OTO all good?

Being that it would be an intra division trade, I would assume the return would be steep. Hope the Giants can ink him to a long term deal afterward but I heard he's represented by Boras and it would probably take a $500 million deal to keep him beyond 2024.

Per Cots, he is, in fact, represented by Boras.

 

[calsnowskier]

I don’t put any faith in this, but there are reports that Ohtani will sign with us tomorrow.

There is a user (Joe Kim) who apparently has a history of having some accuracy with predicting Asian players signings (unconfirmed by myself, fwiw) who has been saying that he has confirmed it is a done deal.

Again, I don’t put any faith in this. I am not seeing these rumors ANYWHERE else (just randos in multiple places passing on this guy’s reports). I will be surprised if anything comes from this.

As smark, I don’t want Ohtani. He will cost too much and his production can’t possibly get any better than what he will end up getting paid for. But as a dumb fan, I am excited to lock him in.

 

[LHG]

I don’t put any faith in this, but there are reports that Ohtani will sign with us tomorrow.

There is a user (Joe Kim) who apparently has a history of having some accuracy with predicting Asian players signings (unconfirmed by myself, fwiw) who has been saying that he has confirmed it is a done deal.

Again, I don’t put any faith in this. I am not seeing these rumors ANYWHERE else (just randos in multiple places passing on this guy’s reports). I will be surprised if anything comes from this.

As smark, I don’t want Ohtani. He will cost too much and his production can’t possibly get any better than what he will end up getting paid for. But as a dumb fan, I am excited to lock him in.

If its going to happen, then I'm good with it. The cost, in my opinion, is prohibitive. I understand that sales of jerseys, tickets, etc are supposed to recoup the costs but would the ownership pockets those funds or really push up the team's budget? Will it secure Yamamoto as well? If so, then let's go for it! If not, then it is just a marketing ploy and may well mean the team wallows in Angel style mediocrity, then I hope it doesn't happen.

 

[calsnowskier]

If its going to happen, then I'm good with it. The cost, in my opinion, is prohibitive. I understand that sales of jerseys, tickets, etc are supposed to recoup the costs but would the ownership pockets those funds or really push up the team's budget? Will it secure Yamamoto as well? If so, then let's go for it! If not, then it is just a marketing ploy and may well mean the team wallows in Angel style mediocrity, then I hope it doesn't happen.

Those are numbers that can be “hidden” from the casual Lunatic Fringe fans. Most fans just look at the salary numbers and don’t look deeper than that. If they sign Ohtani for 50M per, the owners can use that as an excuse not to sign another player at 35M. Even if Ohtani generates 40M per in merch sales.

Everything equal, I believe they would rather win than not win, but they are running a business first and foremost. If they can be 50M more profitable and NOT win, they will take that path every day and twice on Sunday. But the Giants are not unique in that strategy, so I am not “whoa is us”ing the Giants with that statement.

 

[SF11704]

Those are numbers that can be “hidden” from the casual Lunatic Fringe fans. Most fans just look at the salary numbers and don’t look deeper than that. If they sign Ohtani for 50M per, the owners can use that as an excuse not to sign another player at 35M. Even if Ohtani generates 40M per in merch sales.

Everything equal, I believe they would rather win than not win, but they are running a business first and foremost. If they can be 50M more profitable and NOT win, they will take that path every day and twice on Sunday. But the Giants are not unique in that strategy, so I am not “whoa is us”ing the Giants with that statement.

Agree 100% .... also have a question for the group ... Ohtani is a 2 dimensional player .... hence the 50M+ offer ... you are paying for both the pitching and the offense ... he will not pitch in 2024 .... but from what I'm seeing online ... his surgery isn't a 100% full proof total recovery. It seems that it's close to a 2nd TJ surgery. What happens if he returns in 2025 .... but as a VERY AVERAGE pitcher ..... I'm assuming you can't renegotiate the contract ... so you have a very expensive 1 dimensional player ... for 50M+ a year ...

 

[sf1giantfan]

Agree 100% .... also have a question for the group ... Ohtani is a 2 dimensional player .... hence the 50M+ offer ... you are paying for both the pitching and the offense ... he will not pitch in 2024 .... but from what I'm seeing online ... his surgery isn't a 100% full proof total recovery. It seems that it's close to a 2nd TJ surgery. What happens if he returns in 2025 .... but as a VERY AVERAGE pitcher ..... I'm assuming you can't renegotiate the contract ... so you have a very expensive 1 dimensional player ... for 50M+ a year

 

[sf1giantfan]

The only way I see him signing with us is his contract having opt outs as well as the Giants signing or trading for more players to make us contenders right away.