2024 Rosterbation

[LHG]

Agree 100% .... also have a question for the group ... Ohtani is a 2 dimensional player .... hence the 50M+ offer ... you are paying for both the pitching and the offense ... he will not pitch in 2024 .... but from what I'm seeing online ... his surgery isn't a 100% full proof total recovery. It seems that it's close to a 2nd TJ surgery. What happens if he returns in 2025 .... but as a VERY AVERAGE pitcher ..... I'm assuming you can't renegotiate the contract ... so you have a very expensive 1 dimensional player ... for 50M+ a year ...

And that is the big gamble on him. Let's go with the scenario that sees him become solely a DH by 2026 because his arm just cannot take the stress of pitching any longer. Is $50 million per year really worth the best DH of all time? Would the loss of one of his 2 dimensional talents lead to a loss in popularity or would his hitting feats keep the casual fan interested? Teams need to ask themselves this when considering a run at him.
Yeah, he could bounce back and put up ridiculous numbers both on the mound and at the plate in 2025 but he could also become an average reliever by then as well. His arm could "fall off" by 2026 and maybe even go into forced retirement. His ceiling is high but I feel that the floor is lower than some people expect. I really go back and worth on whether or not I want the Giants to sign him.

 

[LHG]

The only way I see him signing with us is his contract having opt outs as well as the Giants signing or trading for more players to make us contenders right away.

The Giants need to build more around him if they really want to contend. I don't think him alone, especially since he won't be pitching in 2024, will make this team a legitimate contender. Maybe fringe but the team will need more. I would hope that Ohtani would make SF a serious consideration for Yamamoto. If the ownership is going in on spending, they need to go all in.

 

[calsnowskier]

The Giants need to build more around him if they really want to contend. I don't think him alone, especially since he won't be pitching in 2024, will make this team a legitimate contender. Maybe fringe but the team will need more. I would hope that Ohtani would make SF a serious consideration for Yamamoto. If the ownership is going in on spending, they need to go all in.

I am hearing that the Giants aren’t really even a consideration for Yamamoto at this point.

Different year, same story.

 

[LHG]

Interesting update on Ohtani:

Rangers, Mets, Red Sox Likely Out Of Ohtani Bidding

The Rangers, Mets and Red Sox have shifted their focus away from Shohei Ohtani and to other offseason targets. Read more at MLB Trade Rumors.

www.mlbtraderumors.com

 

[tzill]

Only one year of Soto, free agent after 2024 season.

They would have to secure a long term deal for any trade to make sense.

 

[tzill]

I don’t put any faith in this, but there are reports that Ohtani will sign with us tomorrow.

There is a user (Joe Kim) who apparently has a history of having some accuracy with predicting Asian players signings (unconfirmed by myself, fwiw) who has been saying that he has confirmed it is a done deal.

Again, I don’t put any faith in this. I am not seeing these rumors ANYWHERE else (just randos in multiple places passing on this guy’s reports). I will be surprised if anything comes from this.

As smark, I don’t want Ohtani. He will cost too much and his production can’t possibly get any better than what he will end up getting paid for. But as a dumb fan, I am excited to lock him in.

Yeah, I've read the same rumors. Guess we'll see.

 

[tzill]

Agree 100% .... also have a question for the group ... Ohtani is a 2 dimensional player .... hence the 50M+ offer ... you are paying for both the pitching and the offense ... he will not pitch in 2024 .... but from what I'm seeing online ... his surgery isn't a 100% full proof total recovery. It seems that it's close to a 2nd TJ surgery. What happens if he returns in 2025 .... but as a VERY AVERAGE pitcher ..... I'm assuming you can't renegotiate the contract ... so you have a very expensive 1 dimensional player ... for 50M+ a year ...

I've not read anything that suggests he won't make a full recovery. But it is indeed a risk.

 

[SF11704]

I've not read anything that suggests he won't make a full recovery. But it is indeed a risk.

Never meant to imply that I saw anything that said his surgery was problematic ... just thinking along your lines .... it is indeed a risk ... and a rather expensive one I would think ....

 

[LHG]

I've not read anything that suggests he won't make a full recovery. But it is indeed a risk.

Never meant to imply that I saw anything that said his surgery was problematic ... just thinking along your lines .... it is indeed a risk ... and a rather expensive one I would think ....

But there is a risk. Approximately 5 years after TJ surgery, he is getting another surgery for essentially the same injury. His arm has question marks. Yes, he's not getting TJ (but it is pretty much TJ light) and yes other pitchers have bounced back just fine from 2 TJ surgeries but that list is short. His talent may well put him in that short list but he is a risk.

 

[calsnowskier]

But there is a risk. Approximately 5 years after TJ surgery, he is getting another surgery for essentially the same injury. His arm has question marks. Yes, he's not getting TJ (but it is pretty much TJ light) and yes other pitchers have bounced back just fine from 2 TJ surgeries but that list is short. His talent may well put him in that short list but he is a risk.

Other TJ patients are also able to dedicate 100% of their recovery to pitching. Ohtani is only able to dedicate approx 50% of his time and attention to pitching.

He has too many moving parts. This is why you don’t buy a TV / DVD player combo. If one thing breaks, you lose everything.

 

[sf1giantfan]

Has it been confirmed he is getting surgery ? If so then we will sign him to a giant contract and he will not only not play for a while but we won’t know for sure how well he will play after that. I say a Big no.

 

[LHG]

Has it been confirmed he is getting surgery ? If so then we will sign him to a giant contract and he will not only not play for a while but we won’t know for sure how well he will play after that. I say a Big no.

I think he has already had his surgery. He hit just fine after his TJ surgery 5 years ago and bounced back to pitch well too the next season. However, as cal mentioned, his rehab looks different than all other pitchers because he spends the year hitting. That could be (but not validated in any way) a factor as to why he has the same issue so soon. Of course, on the flip side, plenty of pitchers go around the knife many times so hitting may have nothing to do with it.
He is a risk but he is not a guaranteed dud either. Whoever gets him could either get paid more than he got or they could get landed with a stinker. I think the former is much more likely but there is definitely more risk to signing him than what is talked about during hot stove season.

 

[Sandisfan]

I think he has already had his surgery. He hit just fine after his TJ surgery 5 years ago and bounced back to pitch well too the next season. However, as cal mentioned, his rehab looks different than all other pitchers because he spends the year hitting. That could be (but not validated in any way) a factor as to why he has the same issue so soon. Of course, on the flip side, plenty of pitchers go around the knife many times so hitting may have nothing to do with it.
He is a risk but he is not a guaranteed dud either. Whoever gets him could either get paid more than he got or they could get landed with a stinker. I think the former is much more likely but there is definitely more risk to signing him than what is talked about during hot stove season.

For what it's worth....When I was in my 20's got the chance to throw with a pitching radar gun at the Boardwalk and registered the blazing number of 65 mph LOL Anyway later in my late 30's tore my Rotator Cuff and decided to leave it alone. I probably can only throw about 40 mph now but can swing a bat as well as before which is nice level swing with not a lot of power. Anyway the point is that hitting may not impact the muscles used for pitching and I am not a doctor nor have I stayed at a Holiday Express Inn either.

 

[LHG]

For what it's worth....When I was in my 20's got the chance to throw with a pitching radar gun at the Boardwalk and registered the blazing number of 65 mph LOL Anyway later in my late 30's tore my Rotator Cuff and decided to leave it alone. I probably can only throw about 40 mph now but can swing a bat as well as before which is nice level swing with not a lot of power. Anyway the point is that hitting may not impact the muscles used for pitching and I am not a doctor nor have I stayed at a Holiday Express Inn either.

It may be true that the hitting won't affect his rehab but I do think about Bryce Harper, who came back from his own surgery quickly, got stuck at the DH spot for the rest of 2023 and is being moved to 1st base full time. I don't know enough about that situation but could it be possible that Harper's arm is not the same since he put so much into coming back quickly? I don't really know.
Here is the way I view Ohtani. He is a clear generational talent. He likely will bring in close or more than what he signs for. However, he is a risk if the team signing him isn't signing him for just his bat (which I doubt any team would do for the amount he is likely to get). The bigger risk I see is that most teams won't be able to field competitive team with his contract (or claim poverty). As a fan, that is not fun. I'd rather have a team like the 2010 Giants, without a clear superstar like Ohtani, and win a World Series then have a player like Ohtani and win nothing. The Giants at least fielded fairly competitive teams around Bonds for most of the time he was a Giant.

 

[LHG]

Looks like Ohtani is going to get closer to $600 million from whoever lands him.

Latest On Shohei Ohtani

1:32PM: The numbers continue to escalate for Ohtani, as Jon Heyman of the New York Post writes that "Ohtani is …

www.mlbtraderumors.com

 

[calsnowskier]

https://twitter.com/susanslusser/status/1731425846244549098?s=20

 

[calsnowskier]

https://twitter.com/susanslusser/status/1731425846244549098?s=20

Sorry, Twitter linking is all fubared.

Slusser says she is hearing a lot of Giants and Yamamoto buzz.

 

[sf1giantfan]

I hear between 500-600 million contract. Please Giants no!

If the bums get him for the $600 mil I hope they can’t afford anyone else.

 

[LHG]

Sorry, Twitter linking is all fubared.

Slusser says she is hearing a lot of Giants and Yamamoto buzz.

According to MLBTR, she thinks the Giants have an inside edge on him. I certainly hope so and hope they finish the edge with a deal!

West Notes: Giants, Yamamoto, Angels, Leiter

The Giants have long been expected to be one of the winter's more aggressive teams after missing out on megadeals …

www.mlbtraderumors.com

 

[LHG]

I hear between 500-600 million contract. Please Giants no!

If the bums get him for the $600 mil I hope they can’t afford anyone else.

The article I cited had a statement that most bids so far are well north of $500 million. I don't know what well north means but I assume it is getting to at least $550 million, thus the idea that it could hit $600 million by the time he signs with a team.