2019 Opening Day 25

[calsnowskier]

I have posted my expected opening 25 throughout the offseason in random threads. I thought I would create a thread for it. Feel free to post your picks as well (and feel free to update as roster changes occur)

Bumgarner
Samardzija
Pomeranz
Holland
Rodriguez

Melancon (R)
Smith (L)
Watson (L)
Moronta (R)
Dyson (R)
Bergen (L)
Blach (L)
Black (R)

Posey
Garcia

Belt
Panik
Crawford
Longoria
Hanson
Sandoval

Dugger
Parra
Williamson
Ferguson

60-day
Cueto


The bully is a bit too lefty-centric, but is that a bad thing? Especially when Smith and Watson are both effective against both sides. My confidence level in this prediction is quite low.

 

[LHG]

My current picks for the 25 are:
Pitchers (13)
Ty Blach, rp
Ray Black, rp
Madison Bumgarner, sp
Sam Dyson, rp
Derek Holland, sp
Mark Melancon, rp
Reyes Moronta, rp
Drew Pomeranz, sp
Dereck Rodriguez, sp
Jeff Samardzija, sp
Will Smith, rp
Chris Stratton, rp
Tony Watson, rp

Catchers (2)
Buster Posey
Rene Rivera

Infielders (6)
Brandon Belt, 1st
Brandon Crawford, ss
Alen Hanson, 2nd
Evan Longoria, 3rd
Joe Panik, 2nd
Pablo Sandoval, 3rd

Outfielders (4)
Steven Duggar
Gerardo Parra
Chris Shaw
Mac Williamson

I don't think they'll lean heavily on the left side in the bullpen and one of Stratton/Suarez will be a 2nd long man. I do think one of Rivera/Vogt will be the backup catcher and I hope the Giants carry some pop on the bench (Parra could bounce around the outfield in a 4 to 5 day a week starter, making one of Shaw and Williamson the big bopper off the bench most days).

 

[calsnowskier]

So the only differences between our rosters is that you have Stratton while I have Bergen, you have Rivera where I have Garcia and you have Shaw while I have Ferguson.

You think they will let both Rule V guys go? MAYBE Bergen, but no way they let Ferguson go, imho.

 

[LHG]

So the only differences between our rosters is that you have Stratton while I have Bergen, you have Rivera where I have Garcia and you have Shaw while I have Ferguson.

You think they will let both Rule V guys go? MAYBE Bergen, but no way they let Ferguson go, imho.

I do think that they could let both Rule 5 guys go (or, if they really like one, work out a trade). I don't think its outside the realm of possibility if one or both of them stick. Both have a legitimate shot of making the team. Right now, I don't think either will stick, though.

 

[calsnowskier]

Right now, I think I might like Ferguson more than I like Shaw. The bats are similar but Ferguson plays center while Shaw owns an OFer glove.

 

[SFGRTB]

Right now, I think I might like Ferguson more than I like Shaw. The bats are similar but Ferguson plays center while Shaw owns an OFer glove.

 

[calsnowskier]

Shaw has more HR power, but Ferguson has a better hit tool. Their slg/ops is very similar. And at the Cove, I would rather play the gap power hitter than the fence power hitter.

 

[calsnowskier]

With all the NRI’s, I thought I would look at the opening 25 from a different angle...

Let’s look at locks vs contenders...

Locks...

Bumgarner
Pomeranz
Samardzija
Holland

Smith
Watson
Moronta
Melancon
Dyson

Posey

Belt
Panik
Crawford
Longoria
Sandoval

Dugger
Williamson

So that leaves 8 total spots open to competition. 1 SP, 2/3 RP, 1 C, 1 util, 2/3 OF.

SP
Rodriguez - he SHOULD be a lock, but there are just too many rumors about him being on the outside looking in. That is just wrong.

Stratton - he should be close to a lock. He looked solid down the stretch.

Suarez - also, should be a near lock. In reality, though, the Giants just have too many 3/4/5 SPs.

Perez - deservedly on the outside looking in, but he could be in the mix as the season goes.

Beede - dude is hanging on only by his pedigree at this point. The SP ranks are getting deep, and he has not made an argument to stay around. I would not super shocked to see him traded/DFA’d by the end of spring.

RP
All the guys mentioned above are in this race as well.

Blach - he is the current day Petit. He probably has an inside track to one of the spots. The fact he is a lefty may actually work against him this year.

Black - we all know he is on borrowed time. He may win a job just because there isn’t much point to stashing him.

Bergen - he either makes the squad or is basically handed back to the Jays. With the lack of a Smith/Watson trade, his value may be diminished.

Okert - super long shot at this point. You gotta believe he is on the outs and may need to make the squad just to stay in the org.

Venditte - he is an oddity, but he doesn’t have much of an MLB track record. I don’t really know what to make of him.

Gott - he may actually have an inside track due to his lack of an option. But it kinda looks like FZ doesn’t value “inventory” the same way Sabes did.

Barrett - new guy on the 40. Don’t know much about him, but if he was brought in, FZ had to like SOMETHING.

Catcher

Garcia - I think he has the inside track, but I think I am in the minority on that opinion. I still like him as a prospect. He may not be a future all star. He may not even be a future regular starter. But I feel confident that he has a long future as a major leaguer.

Rivera - the generally accepted “inside guy”. He is a defensive specialist, so the pitchers should like him. Hard to know how FZ values the tools, though. And how much say he will ultimately have on the final 25 anyway.

Vogt - if he is healthy (BIG if) he probably makes the team as a super util. He may be competing against himself this spring.

Rupp - he is probably the absolute outsider at this point.

Util

Hanson - he is probably a favorite among all of us, but in reality, he is probably an outsider at this point. He plays every position save catcher, but he doesn’t play any of them particularly well. His hit tool is meh. He has speed, and that tend to make it LOOK like players are playing harder than they actually are.

Solarte - probably the inside man. I am not excited about him, but he does have moderate power. He plays all infield positions, but none of them very well.

Jones - I would be shocked if he made the team. I think he has a problem of progressing through the minors too quickly. He is still super young, but has looked horrible in the majors.

Avelino - like Jones, I would be shocked if he made the team.

Michael - NRI longshot, but he might be the guy to watch.

OF

Shaw - he will get plenty of looks throughout the year, but if he doesn’t earn the starting gig, he should start in Sacto.

Parra - NRI, but I expect him to start in right on opening day.

Maybin - I think he is basically a safety net for Ferguson. One of the two will almost certainly make the team.

Ferguson - I have been clear that I like the guy. I hope he makes the team. What would it cost to keep him in the org if he doesn’t make the 25?

Slater - dude has done nothing but perform every time he has taken the field. Yet he is always viewed as an also-ran. I would be surprised to see him make the team.

Gentry/Gerber/Andreoli - I would be shocked if any of these guys even make noise during spring.

 

[LHG]

With all the NRI’s, I thought I would look at the opening 25 from a different angle...

Let’s look at locks vs contenders...

Locks...

Bumgarner
Pomeranz
Samardzija
Holland

Smith
Watson
Moronta
Melancon
Dyson

Posey

Belt
Panik
Crawford
Longoria
Sandoval

Dugger
Williamson

So that leaves 8 total spots open to competition. 1 SP, 2/3 RP, 1 C, 1 util, 2/3 OF.

SP
Rodriguez - he SHOULD be a lock, but there are just too many rumors about him being on the outside looking in. That is just wrong.

Stratton - he should be close to a lock. He looked solid down the stretch.

Suarez - also, should be a near lock. In reality, though, the Giants just have too many 3/4/5 SPs.

Perez - deservedly on the outside looking in, but he could be in the mix as the season goes.

Beede - dude is hanging on only by his pedigree at this point. The SP ranks are getting deep, and he has not made an argument to stay around. I would not super shocked to see him traded/DFA’d by the end of spring.

RP
All the guys mentioned above are in this race as well.

Blach - he is the current day Petit. He probably has an inside track to one of the spots. The fact he is a lefty may actually work against him this year.

Black - we all know he is on borrowed time. He may win a job just because there isn’t much point to stashing him.

Bergen - he either makes the squad or is basically handed back to the Jays. With the lack of a Smith/Watson trade, his value may be diminished.

Okert - super long shot at this point. You gotta believe he is on the outs and may need to make the squad just to stay in the org.

Venditte - he is an oddity, but he doesn’t have much of an MLB track record. I don’t really know what to make of him.

Gott - he may actually have an inside track due to his lack of an option. But it kinda looks like FZ doesn’t value “inventory” the same way Sabes did.

Barrett - new guy on the 40. Don’t know much about him, but if he was brought in, FZ had to like SOMETHING.

Catcher

Garcia - I think he has the inside track, but I think I am in the minority on that opinion. I still like him as a prospect. He may not be a future all star. He may not even be a future regular starter. But I feel confident that he has a long future as a major leaguer.

Rivera - the generally accepted “inside guy”. He is a defensive specialist, so the pitchers should like him. Hard to know how FZ values the tools, though. And how much say he will ultimately have on the final 25 anyway.

Vogt - if he is healthy (BIG if) he probably makes the team as a super util. He may be competing against himself this spring.

Rupp - he is probably the absolute outsider at this point.

Util

Hanson - he is probably a favorite among all of us, but in reality, he is probably an outsider at this point. He plays every position save catcher, but he doesn’t play any of them particularly well. His hit tool is meh. He has speed, and that tend to make it LOOK like players are playing harder than they actually are.

Solarte - probably the inside man. I am not excited about him, but he does have moderate power. He plays all infield positions, but none of them very well.

Jones - I would be shocked if he made the team. I think he has a problem of progressing through the minors too quickly. He is still super young, but has looked horrible in the majors.

Avelino - like Jones, I would be shocked if he made the team.

Michael - NRI longshot, but he might be the guy to watch.

OF

Shaw - he will get plenty of looks throughout the year, but if he doesn’t earn the starting gig, he should start in Sacto.

Parra - NRI, but I expect him to start in right on opening day.

Maybin - I think he is basically a safety net for Ferguson. One of the two will almost certainly make the team.

Ferguson - I have been clear that I like the guy. I hope he makes the team. What would it cost to keep him in the org if he doesn’t make the 25?

Slater - dude has done nothing but perform every time he has taken the field. Yet he is always viewed as an also-ran. I would be surprised to see him make the team.

Gentry/Gerber/Andreoli - I would be shocked if any of these guys even make noise during spring.

If this tidbit from MLB Rumors is accurate, Solarte is a near lock:
"Giants frontman Farhan Zaidi is still exploring trade opportunities, per Kerry Crowley of the Bay Area News Group (via Twitter). The recent additions of Gerardo Parra, Craig Gentry, and Yangervis Solarte, after all, aren’t likely to form the backbone of the next World Series champion in the Bay. Still, they fit as puzzle pieces in Zaidi’s strategy to build the organization’s depth while maintaining future roster flexibility. They’re particularly high on Solarte, whom they see as a switch-hitter with above-average contact skills and 15-20 homer potential. His ability to play all over the field should keep him getting regular at-bats, Crowley writes in the Mercury News, and the Giants are optimistic about the potential returns."

 

[LHG]

I don't know how knowledgeable this write is (I've never heard of her) but this articles appears on the team website predicting the 25 man roster: Giants roster predictions
I already discount her knowledge a bit because she uses the un-researched trope that Maybin would be a good platoon partner with Duggar. Of course, maybe that is insider information and shows some holes in the new FO's ability to actually make sound judgments based on numbers.

 

[tzill]

I don't know how knowledgeable this write is (I've never heard of her) but this articles appears on the team website predicting the 25 man roster: Giants roster predictions
I already discount her knowledge a bit because she uses the un-researched trope that Maybin would be a good platoon partner with Duggar. Of course, maybe that is insider information and shows some holes in the new FO's ability to actually make sound judgments based on numbers.

I don't think the Giants are going to carry 13 pitchers. Otherwise she's likely pretty close. I disagree with Rivera as backup C as well. My current thinking:

C - Posey, Vogt
IF - Belt, Panik, Craw, Longo, Panda, Solarte
OF - Mac, Duggar, Slater, Parra, Fergie
SP - Bum, DRod, Shark, Pom, Hollturd
RP - Watson, Smith, MM, Dyson, Moronta, Venditte, Stratton

 

[msgkings322]

I don't think the Giants are going to carry 13 pitchers. Otherwise she's likely pretty close. I disagree with Rivera as backup C as well. My current thinking:

C - Posey, Vogt
IF - Belt, Panik, Craw, Longo, Panda, Solarte
OF - Mac, Duggar, Slater, Parra, Fergie
SP - Bum, DRod, Shark, Pom, Hollturd
RP - Watson, Smith, MM, Dyson, Moronta, Venditte, Stratton

That's a 98 win team easy dontcha think?

 

[Stokes1931]

That's a 98 win team easy dontcha think?

All in one season?

 

[LHG]

All in one season?

Hmm, he didn't specify that he was talking about just one season.

 

[LHG]

Looking over spring numbers, the only changes I'd make, so far, to my original list is:
Solarte over Hanson
Vincent over Stratton (Stratton starts in AAA)

 

[calsnowskier]

That's a 98 win team easy dontcha think?

Already looking forward to the next 3 seasons?

 

[calsnowskier]

All in one season?

 

[calsnowskier]

Looking over spring numbers, the only changes I'd make, so far, to my original list is:
Solarte over Hanson
Vincent over Stratton (Stratton starts in AAA)

No way Stratton clears waivers.

 

[msgkings322]

I mean look, I get it, they went after Harper I think for real, but now they are all in on 'rebuild but don't call it that'. And that's what we wanted. FZ is in charge and he has leeway.

In this team's case that isn't a 'tear down' rebuild, they don't have enough to deal (Bumgarner will 95% chance be traded to a contender in July however) to fully stock up. So now they evaluate the youth they have next to the old guys. If a miracle happens and they catch fire early, well, maybe they retool on the fly. But obviously not the way to bet.

One intriguing thing, I wonder if they are going all 'Moneyball' regarding a bullpen. Focusing on that being the best part of your team which is ass-backwards so maybe just right for the current moment, the new 'edge'. You can tinker with a BP much easier than anything else, so maybe FZ is playng 3D chess.

Again...not likely, but not impossible...

 

[LHG]

No way Stratton clears waivers.

He doesn't look that good in spring so far. Do you really think that he'd make the team over Rodriguez (for the rotation) or Venditte, Black and Blach (in the bullpen)? And considering Zaidi's penchant for throwing guys through waivers, I do think its a distinct possibility he at least tries to sneak Stratton through.