- Thread starter
- #1
ram29jackson
New Member
Reasons Why The NFL Is Fixed For Profit 03-03-2012-11:41 Covers Blog
I don't see why it would be so hard to believe. I know I've watched plenty of games where the refs blatantly disregard whats happening in front of them and everyone. And the NFL is legally allowed to do it because they are recognized as entertainment.
I don't see why it would be so hard to believe. I know I've watched plenty of games where the refs blatantly disregard whats happening in front of them and everyone. And the NFL is legally allowed to do it because they are recognized as entertainment.
First off, I'm going to begin this blog by stating that I don't have any intentions on changing anyone's mind about the NFL. Nor am I trying to start an argument about who is right and who is wrong.
I already know everyone's argument of "It takes too many people to rig a game", and the all time classic with no viable facts, "They make too much money, why would they jeopardize it?" Arguing about the nature of such things is like arguing about religion and politics. There is no point.
I'm just going to point out several observations I have made over the last few years about the NFL and state my case for why I think the NFL fixes their own games for profit. So if you are already on the defensive ready to discredit all of the evidence I am about display without actually bringing up facts that go against my arguments (like a normal discussion should be) then move on.
So if you have any documented facts, I would like to hear them. If you agree with me afterwards great, if you don't that's cool too, follow me on Twitter @shark702 and we can continue the discussion there. But again, let's talk, not insult each other. If you are the type of person who hates being lied to, was upset to find out as a kid that Santa wasn't real and that WWE is fake than please read on and I would love to hear your opinions.
OK, so if you are ready to take the Red Pill, let's see how deep the rabbit hole goes...
I've been handicapping the NFL for about 10 years now using mathematical analysis of teams, point spreads, specific outcomes and algebra, specifically relating to the calculation of probability where P(X=K)=(n/k)P^k(q)(n-k) and (n/k) = n!/k!(n-k)!, accounting for injuries, and incorporating Power Ratings which I developed from a simple Grade Scale A-F with the best NFL team receiving an A and the worst receiving an F. I was able to amass several consistent 60% ATS betting seasons. This process I found to be long and arduous and caused me great mental stress after a certain period of time.
But one day, during the 2009 season, something happened that changed it all. Now I've had my share of bad beats up until then. Some of these bad beats were too good to be true i.e The Tuck Rule Game. Several coincidences happened that just seemed to good to be true. The New England Patriots post 9/11 run, the Saints erasing 40 years of negative football history post Katrina, the Manning Families dynasty, just to name a few.
Now if you believe in random coincidence that's fine, but when they happen on multiple occasions over and over and over than it's time to do a little research. Ralph Waldo Emerson once said "Shallow men believe in Luck, strong men believe in cause and effect".
So during a game between the Pittsburgh Steelers and the San Diego Chargers the Steelers were favored by 3. Nearly 70 percent of the betting public was on Pittsburgh, with a reported $100 million in potential earnings. The score with less than a minute to go, 11-10 Pittsburgh and SD with the ball. After an errant lateral gets knocked away by Troy Polamalu, he scoops it and scores. The score is now 17-10, there is no time left, all teams head to the locker room, fans go to cash their tickets.
After several minutes of debate, the refs overturn the call, restoring a meaningless TD off the board making the final score 11-10, the Steelers win, the public loses. What I found to be most odd about it is the league's explanation of a "forward pass". The pass was ruled forward although it is obvious it was a backwards lateral. When I got home, I starting thinking that things were just to good to be true.
Sportscenter reported the money lost in Vegas and almost joked about it. They were literally laughing. So after this bad beat, I held around some serious thoughts about the legitimacy of pro football.
An opportunity came up in my graduate school where I was to write my project on any topic I was to choose. So I chose researching the "Showbiz manipulations of the NFL". I picked up several books including Dan Moldea's "Interference: How Organized Crimes Influence Professional Football", Brian Touhy's "The Fix Is In" , Roger L. Martins "Fixing the Game". I checked out several TV Marketing books from the college library and also several TV Business books.
I utilized my rights under the Freedom of Information Act passed by President Lyndon Johnson in 1966 to access over 40 years of FBI files on the NFL although some information was redacted. Here's what I found: