A.L. Central Discussion 2016

[MiamiVice]

I think the "they'll win 15 more games" is a little dicey, because what is the true starting point?

The Tigers won 75 games, but according to the pythag record based on runs scored and allowed, they "should have" won 69. Who's to say that a 15-game improvement wouldn't net them 84 wins?

On the other side, maybe they'll outperform their pythag by five games next year and a 15-game improvement would net them 89 wins.

Beyond the runs scored/allowed variables to pythag, there're unpredictable variables inside of the runs scored and runs allowed numbers. The Indians, for example, "should have" scored more runs based on their overall offensive stats - had they scored more runs, that would affect their pythag record.

all these pythag theories and projections seem to be incorrect more than they are correct.

 

[broncosmitty]

Dave Clark is a horrible 3rd base coach.. I don't think he is going to be there this season though.

I remember a couple moves being announced months ago.

Seems like I should remember if Clark changed roles.

Hope he has other duties. Good guy, with an eye for talent. Not a good judge of 90 foot sprints.

 

[SlinkyRedfoot]

On the other side, maybe they'll outperform their pythag by five games next year and a 15-game improvement would net them 89 wins.

Sorry, I did the math wrong, in this scenario, a 15-game improvement could net them 94 wins.

 

[Howie115]

I think the "they'll win 15 more games" is a little dicey, because what is the true starting point?

4.64 is SO FAR above the league median, I feel safe saying they would have won 15 more last season at 4.05. No way of proving it, of course. I do remember several games where they scored 5 to 7 runs and still lost.

 

[broncosmitty]

I think the "they'll win 15 more games" is a little dicey, because what is the true starting point?

The Tigers won 75 games, but according to the pythag record based on runs scored and allowed, they "should have" won 69. Who's to say that a 15-game improvement wouldn't net them 84 wins?

On the other side, maybe they'll outperform their pythag by five games next year and a 15-game improvement would net them 89 wins.

Beyond the runs scored/allowed variables to pythag, there're unpredictable variables inside of the runs scored and runs allowed numbers. The Indians, for example, "should have" scored more runs based on their overall offensive stats - had they scored more runs, that would affect their pythag record.

DaFuq kind of Nerdery d'you just say?

 

[MiamiVice]

The biggest issue the Tigers are going to have this year is health. If they win that battle they are a good bet to make the playoffs.
The biggest issue the Indians have is the lack of a real lineup and lack of the urgency of the owner to remedy that. I don't see the Indians bringing anyone in at any point this season in trade because Dolan doesn't want to spend.
The biggest issue the Royals are going to have is in their lineup and lack of depth.
The biggest issue the White Sox have is OBP from their lineup.
The biggest issue the Twins have is pretty much everything but their farm.

 

[SlinkyRedfoot]

all these pythag theories and projections seem to be incorrect more than they are correct.

Pythag is not a projection, and you're absolutely wrong. That one is pretty damn good.

 

[Howie115]

Sorry, I did the math wrong, in this scenario, a 15-game improvement could net them 94 wins.

The Tigers won 74 last year. In my completely unscientific example, I gave them 15 more wins for 89 total.

 

[MiamiVice]

I remember a couple moves being announced months ago.

Seems like I should remember if Clark changed roles.

Hope he has other duties. Good guy, with an eye for talent. Not a good judge of 90 foot sprints.

They added Gibson to the coaching staff.. and Trammel. So I doubt Clark is going back out there. No announcements yet on it though.

 

[Howie115]

Verlander alone left several games last year with a lead, only to have the bullpen serve up 2 or more runs in the 8th/9th and blow it.

 

[SlinkyRedfoot]

The Tigers won 74 last year. In my completely unscientific example, I gave them 15 more wins for 89 total.

K.I.S.S. I'm a big believer in that too.

 

[MiamiVice]

Pythag is not a projection, and you're absolutely wrong. That one is pretty damn good.

What good does pythag do other than take actual win losses and say how many they "should have won"? Should have and did... I take reality based stats.

 

[Howie115]

The biggest issue the Tigers are going to have this year is health. If they win that battle they are a good bet to make the playoffs.

Thus, my biggest concern about the 2016 team. I feel very confident this group of players will perform, but they need to be on the damn field.

 

[MiamiVice]

The Royals pythag says they should have won 89 games last year..

 

[SlinkyRedfoot]

What good does pythag do other than take actual win losses and say how many they "should have won"? Should have and did... I take reality based stats.

You're free to do whatever you want.

Here's a brief description of why people much smarter than you take pythag records into consideration.

The rationale behind Pythagorean Winning Percentage is that, while winning as many games as possible is still the ultimate goal of a baseball team, a team's run differential (once a sufficient number of games have been played) provides a better idea of how well a team is actually playing. Therefore, barring personnel issues (injuries, trades), a team's actual W-L record will approach the Pythagorean Expected W-L record over time, not the other way around.

If you'd like to read more, you can do so here.

 

[MiamiVice]

If we went by pythagorean win loss.. the Royals wouldn't have made it to the WS.. Because they wouldn't have played game 5 of their series against Houston in KC...

 

[SlinkyRedfoot]

Thus, my biggest concern about the 2016 team. I feel very confident this group of players will perform, but they need to be on the damn field.

Yep. I wouldn't be surprised to see Cabrera put in a full season, but I think 200 innings from Verlander or 140+ games from Victor are tall orders.

 

[MiamiVice]

You're free to do whatever you want.

Here's a brief description of why people much smarter than you take pythag records into consideration.



If you'd like to read more, you can do so here.

so by using pythag you get to understand who is playing better.. yet the royals were supposed to win less games and won it all.. i get it.. much better to use that than reality.

 

[SlinkyRedfoot]

If we went by pythagorean win loss.. the Royals wouldn't have made it to the WS.. Because they wouldn't have played game 5 of their series against Houston in KC...

No one is suggesting that we "go by" pythag.

 

[MiamiVice]

No one is suggesting that we "go by" pythag.

then why use it? its completely stupid. it adds nothing what so ever... it may be the dumbest stat that was created.