A.L. Central Discussion 2016

[MiamiVice]

As I said, I do expect them to improve, I'm just not sure how much. I do not expect them to have an above average pitching staff.

I mean seriously... you think they are going to be anywhere near the 4.64 era they put up last year? Health is the key. If Sanchez, Verlander, and Zimmerman all start at least 30 games... there is no way they don't at least have a league average pitching staff. Heck.. Daniel Norris alone could vastly outperform what people are expecting of him. Baseball Prospectus has him for a 4.50 era I think.. I will be surprised if that happens... and not surprised in the least if Daniel Norris has a well above average season.

 

[MiamiVice]

I am not expecting a well above average pitching staff either to be clear.. but an average pitching staff with what could be a top offense could very well win them enough games to get the division.. and pitching can be added later in the year to compete for more.

 

[MiamiVice]

Both the Blue Jays and Royals won a lot of games without very good starting pitching last year.

 

[SlinkyRedfoot]

I mean seriously... you think they are going to be anywhere near the 4.64 era they put up last year?

I said I thought they'd improve. Clearly I said that. Why do you ask this?

 

[Howie115]

Red Sox - 4.31
Tigers - 4.64

I don't how CBS came up with 14th then. Maybe they forgot there are now 15 teams in the AL!

 

[MiamiVice]

As I said, I do expect them to improve, I'm just not sure how much. I do not expect them to have an above average pitching staff.

I said I thought they'd improve. Clearly I said that. Why do you ask this?

Probably because you added that part.

 

[MiamiVice]

I don't how CBS came up with 14th then. Maybe they forgot there are now 15 teams in the AL!

View attachment 90011

CBS is retarded.

 

[SlinkyRedfoot]

Both the Blue Jays and Royals won a lot of games without very good starting pitching last year.

Blue Jays starting pitching averaged 6 IP/GS with a 3.96 ERA. That's basically identical to the Indians and well above league average. So throw them out.

The Royals had the best bullpen in the majors.

 

[MiamiVice]

Blue Jays starting pitching averaged 6 IP/GS with a 3.96 ERA. That's basically identical to the Indians and well above league average. So throw them out.

The Royals had the best bullpen in the majors.

does that include what they did after david price? because before david price.. i remember them struggling quite a bit.

 

[SlinkyRedfoot]

Maybe they forgot there are now 15 teams in the AL

That would be my guess. Be funny to see if any teams in the NL are ranked 16th.

 

[MiamiVice]

Blue Jays starting pitching averaged 6 IP/GS with a 3.96 ERA. That's basically identical to the Indians and well above league average. So throw them out.

The Royals had the best bullpen in the majors.

The Blue Jays bullpen was pretty good too.

 

[Howie115]

The median ERA last season in the AL was 4.05. If the Tigers had a 4.05 team ERA, they win 15 more games, easily. That's why I say, they don't even have to be really good on the mound in 2016, just not puke.

 

[SlinkyRedfoot]

does that include what they did after david price? because before david price.. i remember them struggling quite a bit.

David Price was a starting pitcher for the Toronto Blue Jays last year, so yes, their starting pitching stats include the numbers he put up there.

Remove his starts and they averaged 5.9 IP/GS with a 4.10, which is still better than league average.

Given you're intention when bringing them up, it's worth noting that the Blue Jays were a .500 ball club when they acquired Price.

 

[SlinkyRedfoot]

The Blue Jays bullpen was pretty good too.

Yes it was. They had a good overall staff. The only AL teams with notably better team ERAs were the Indians and Astros.

 

[broncosmitty]

I am more than confident he will do much more than that... as is ESPN.


View attachment 89772

View attachment 89773Nick Castellanos, 3B
Detroit Tigers
Age: 23 | 2015 WAR: 0.5

Castellanos was rushed to the major leagues in 2013 before he was ready, and it has led to a relatively slow start to his career. But entering his third full season, he'll begin to realize his potential. He'll benefit from hitting in one of the league's best lineups, with Miguel Cabrera, Victor Martinez, J.D. Martinez and Justin Upton all hitting ahead of him. As such, there will be little pressure on him to produce, which can only help.

Castellanos is very good at taking the pitch the other way, and his power is beginning to come around. I'd look for about 18-20 homers this year, with enough ducks on the pond for him to post a respectable RBI total. He has been slow to adjust to big league pitching, which had to be expected, given his age, but this is the year he takes a big step forward.

Aberrations like that do happen, and certainly happened to the Tigers last season. Two main reasons: poor BA with RISP and lack of home runs. Their best hitter with RISP (Cabrera) missed almost two months, and he hit only 18 HR when he did play. So the runs scored make sense in that context.

How many outs did we run into? We had to be tops in baseball.

I've been vocal on a few of our guys ineptitude as baserunners. (Davis also a fast/poor baserunner.). But Dave Clark is horrible at his job. It cost us.

 

[broncosmitty]

Lol

Didn't realize I doubled up.

 

[Howie115]

I've been vocal on a few of our guys ineptitude as baserunners. (Davis also a fast/poor baserunner.). But Dave Clark is horrible at his job. It cost us.

Yes, Rajai and Gose are both very fast, but not very smart on the bases. Gose also seems to have no base-stealing sense and can't read pitchers at all. And you are dead-on about Clark.

 

[broncosmitty]

It's brutal.

 

[SlinkyRedfoot]

The median ERA last season in the AL was 4.05. If the Tigers had a 4.05 team ERA, they win 15 more games, easily. That's why I say, they don't even have to be really good on the mound in 2016, just not puke.

I think the "they'll win 15 more games" is a little dicey, because what is the true starting point?

The Tigers won 75 games, but according to the pythag record based on runs scored and allowed, they "should have" won 69. Who's to say that a 15-game improvement wouldn't net them 84 wins?

On the other side, maybe they'll outperform their pythag by five games next year and a 15-game improvement would net them 89 wins.

Beyond the runs scored/allowed variables to pythag, there're unpredictable variables inside of the runs scored and runs allowed numbers. The Indians, for example, "should have" scored more runs based on their overall offensive stats - had they scored more runs, that would affect their pythag record.

 

[MiamiVice]

How many outs did we run into? We had to be tops in baseball.

I've been vocal on a few of our guys ineptitude as baserunners. (Davis also a fast/poor baserunner.). But Dave Clark is horrible at his job. It cost us.

Dave Clark is a horrible 3rd base coach.. I don't think he is going to be there this season though.