2016 Rosterbation

[Hangman]

I would like to get Leake for a similar contract. Then get a lf/cf

 

[SFGRTB]

Isn't the lux tax calculated using AAV?

I'm not sure, but I feel like there was recently a discussion about this.

 

[LHG]

We all think we know better than the professionals, let's see what happens next.

Professionals get it wrong too. Zito anyone?

 

[SFGRTB]

From a pure on the field standpoint, I think the important thing about Scrabble is that he should give us innings. I've said it before in this thread that the Giants need innings out if the rotation, as last year Bumgarner was the only guy who could go out there and give us 7 sure innings and give the Pen a breather. If Scrabble can go out there and pitch 200+ innings as a number 3 starter, that saves our bullpen for the dog days. And he should be able to do that, 3 straight years over 200 innings, and he has less miles than the regular 31 year old starter.

 

[calsnowskier]

From a pure on the field standpoint, I think the important thing about Scrabble is that he should give us innings. I've said it before in this thread that the Giants need innings out if the rotation, as last year Bumgarner was the only guy who could go out there and give us 7 sure innings and give the Pen a breather. If Scrabble can go out there and pitch 200+ innings as a number 3 starter, that saves our bullpen for the dog days. And he should be able to do that, 3 straight years over 200 innings, and he has less miles than the regular 31 year old starter.

This is what I have been grasping at the last couple hours now. His FLOOR is a decent-to-not-bad innings eater. And I think he should be able to do that for at least 4 of the 5 years.

This is not a shiney signing. It is not sexy. But maybe it offers some consistency over the next few years.

 

[MarcoPolo]

Look like I should have posted this here :

The main reason the Giants believe in Samardzija could have nothing to do with the right-hander himself. A year ago, Samardjiza pitched in front of the worst defense in MLB, according to advanced statistics compiled by FanGraphs.com. Now he’ll pitch in front of Brandon Crawford, Matt Duffy, Joe Panik, Brandon Belt and the rest of the best statistical defense in the National League, and he’ll throw to Buster Posey. For a pitcher who got grounders 50 percent of the time in his best season, that switch should provide a major boost.

More in the full article : Giants, Jeff Samardzija agree to terms on five-year deal

 

[SFGRTB]

Another article, from fangraphs

Giants Invest In Jeff Samardzija, Dave Righetti | FanGraphs Baseball

 

[MarcoPolo]

Isn't the lux tax calculated using AAV?

If you got to cots ( Transactions Glossary | Cot's Baseball Contracts ) you can download the most recent CBA.

The gritty details are described in ARTICLE XXIII—Competitive Balance Tax.

Sections C, D, and E are the most applicable. It's rather complicated. For example, signing bonuses (and option buyouts) get averaged out over the guaranteed years of the contract - NOT when the money is actually paid. Deferred compensation counts the year it is *earned* not when it is *paid*. And a player's 'salary' also includes 'Player Benefit Costs' (such as monies paid into the MLB retirement plan), bonuses earned (such as pitching 100 innings), workers comp, social security taxes, meal and tip allowances, traveling expenses, medical costs, costs for personal translators, ...

It complicated. But the *vast majority* of what is considered salary is :

(total guaranteed salary of contract + buyouts + signing bonus) / (# of guaranteed years) + perf bonus this year

for each player. Other stuff gets added in, but ends up being about $10M-$11M (total) per team

 

[msgkings322]

This is what I have been grasping at the last couple hours now. His FLOOR is a decent-to-not-bad innings eater. And I think he should be able to do that for at least 4 of the 5 years.

This is not a shiney signing. It is not sexy. But maybe it offers some consistency over the next few years.

The way the contracts are going $15-18 mil per year gets you a #3 starter, $20-23 mil a #2, and $25+ an ace. He's got a #3 contract with potential to be a #2. I trust our front office.

And every year those numbers will go up. In 3 years $25+ will be your #2 starter. Need a time machine to tell my 12 year old self to spend more time hitting fungoes.

Still need another piece though, with now the Dbags and Dodgers to battle

 

[tzill]

The Kansas City Royals.

The Giants will probably add some sort of veteran to the outfield group, big ticket or dumpster dive. It'll probably depend on how we do with fixing the rotation. Grenkie means dumpster dive, Leake means Cespedes/Zobrist/Heyward (LONG shot).

The Oky/Shark/Herk/Parker/Mac outfield group didn't work last year, mostly because of injuries. We know it's a matter of time before Pagan goes down, and the Giants have no depth outside of those 5. Parker and Mac can still be sent to AAA. The Giants have to add something to the mix, even just for some depth.

I do have a lot of faith in Parker/Mac. I think a platoon of those guys would produce 2-3 WAR in LF over the season. I just don't trust Pagan to stay healthy, putting the Giants in a fragile spot with 4 OFers and no depth.

The Oxy/Shark/Herk/Parker/Mac OF wasn't together last year. Early on, we had Aoki, later on we had Byrd. They may indeed add Cespedes or Zobrist, but my position is that they don't NEED to.

 

[Mays-Fan]

Stark's Latest: Cueto, Leake Miller, Indians, Rays

• Former Reds starter Mike Leake, 28, is in demand largely because he’s one of the youngest pitchers on the market. He has a history of durability, but that comes with league average production on the mound. However, Leake is also well-above average as a hitter, boosting his value to NL clubs. Stark expects a “stampede” in Leake’s direction during the Winter Meetings. One source believes Leake will be overpaid by an exuberant market.
• The Braves would jump on a Shelby Miller trade if they received the right controllable position player. To date, Atlanta has focused on particularly high value targets like Joc Pederson, A.J. Pollock, and Jorge Soler. As you might guess, few if any teams are eager to trade established, high quality young hitters for pitching. The Braves have shown no sign of backing down on their asking price.

Of the two here, I would be in favor of trying to work a deal revolving around Panik for Miller. Then we'd have enough bucks to land a premium OF (IMHO we have enough for Cespedes or Heyward, or any FA OF). So:

• We'd be plus Samardzija, Miller, and the premium OF.
• We'd be minus Panik, but Tomlinson is ready, and we have Arroyo in the wings.

I would grade that an A or even A+ offseason.

 

[tzill]

Stark's Latest: Cueto, Leake Miller, Indians, Rays

• Former Reds starter Mike Leake, 28, is in demand largely because he’s one of the youngest pitchers on the market. He has a history of durability, but that comes with league average production on the mound. However, Leake is also well-above average as a hitter, boosting his value to NL clubs. Stark expects a “stampede” in Leake’s direction during the Winter Meetings. One source believes Leake will be overpaid by an exuberant market.
• The Braves would jump on a Shelby Miller trade if they received the right controllable position player. To date, Atlanta has focused on particularly high value targets like Joc Pederson, A.J. Pollock, and Jorge Soler. As you might guess, few if any teams are eager to trade established, high quality young hitters for pitching. The Braves have shown no sign of backing down on their asking price.

Of the two here, I would be in favor of trying to work a deal revolving around Panik for Miller. Then we'd have enough bucks to land a premium OF (IMHO we have enough for Cespedes or Heyward, or any FA OF). So:

• We'd be plus Samardzija, Miller, and the premium OF.
• We'd be minus Panik, but Tomlinson is ready, and we have Arroyo in the wings.

I would grade that an A or even A+ offseason.

I like your enthusiasm, but am not convinced. Not yet.

 

[Mays-Fan]

I like your enthusiasm, but am not convinced. Not yet.

Thank you, and understood. That is what December is all about here.

 

[Mays-Fan]

Another article, from fangraphs

Giants Invest In Jeff Samardzija, Dave Righetti | FanGraphs Baseball

Da money quote:

This isn’t about what Jeff Samardzija‘s done, certainly not what he’s done most recently. This is about what the Giants think Samardzija is going to be.​

 

[LHG]

Here's an article from ESPN, written 2 days ago - Is Jeff Samardzija really a $100 million pitcher?

 

[Mays-Fan]

An aspect to the Samardzija deal that I like is that he will not be the highest paid player on the team. For pro athletes, that is often a criteria that causes the most dissension on the club. There is an unspoken code that says the guy making the most money is the leader on the team.

He won't be making more money than Buster, or Pence, or even Cain for that matter. And that is a very good thing. Perhaps for that reason alone we should not sign Cespedes, or Cueto. It won't last forever, but those three deserve to be the highest paid players on the club, at least for this season, which is a critical one.

At least until Bum gets a new deal. But no one will argue when he becomes the highest paid Giant.

Or he'll come and crash a bale of hay on your head.

 

[SFGRTB]

I don't know where this belongs but I think a solid move the Giants could make is go after an additional outfielder in free agency and trade Pagan for C.J. Wilson. Both guys are in the final years of their deal, Wilson makes $20M and Pagan makes $11M. Basically turns into a 1 year-$9M deal for Wilson, who should be able to post 1 or 2 WAR. Blanco becomes full-time CFer.

 

[LHG]

I don't know where this belongs but I think a solid move the Giants could make is go after an additional outfielder in free agency and trade Pagan for C.J. Wilson. Both guys are in the final years of their deal, Wilson makes $20M and Pagan makes $11M. Basically turns into a 1 year-$9M deal for Wilson, who should be able to post 1 or 2 WAR. Blanco becomes full-time CFer.

Interesting idea but not sure how that makes Wilson a 1 year, $9 million deal, unless the Angels agree to pay all of Pagan's salary and $11 of the $20 million owed Wilson.

 

[tzill]

I don't know where this belongs but I think a solid move the Giants could make is go after an additional outfielder in free agency and trade Pagan for C.J. Wilson. Both guys are in the final years of their deal, Wilson makes $20M and Pagan makes $11M. Basically turns into a 1 year-$9M deal for Wilson, who should be able to post 1 or 2 WAR. Blanco becomes full-time CFer.

No, it doesn't. We'd lose Pagan, who is probably just about worth the $11M. So Wilson's deal would be...wait for it...a $20M deal. That, we don't need. We're already paying $20M for a bounce back candidate in the rotation.

 

[SFGRTB]

Interesting idea but not sure how that makes Wilson a 1 year, $9 million deal, unless the Angels agree to pay all of Pagan's salary and $11 of the $20 million owed Wilson.

No, it doesn't. We'd lose Pagan, who is probably just about worth the $11M. So Wilson's deal would be...wait for it...a $20M deal. That, we don't need. We're already paying $20M for a bounce back candidate in the rotation.

Assuming the Angels pay $11M on Wilson's salary, and the Giants pay the remaining $9M. We would be paying Pagan to not be here though. Just a thought.