2016 Rosterbation

[SFGRTB]

A big domino falls...

Tigers To Sign Jordan Zimmermann

I was never too warm on him. Wasn't keen on the Giants still paying a big contract, and giving up a pick, for a guy who is clearly not in the top tier and had a scary drop off in his fastball effectiveness. Glad he's off the table. I prefer Leake.

This also puts the Tigers out of the running for a top pitcher, but they might still be looking at a mid-level starter.

 

[SFGRTB]

Agreed. Plus, the only times we've landed highpriced free agents is in times of desperation rebuilding.

I would not expect us to land a top shelf pitcher anytime soon. If we could resign Leake, trade for Miller, and snag a decent OF, I would be ecstatic.

I know we're probably never going to reach an agreement to signing big contracts for pitchers, but I think it's going to be the most likely way we get someone.

I am still for a Miller trade, but if it's going to take Duffy/Panik then hell no. Susac has been mentioned as well, but is he and a collection of minor leaguers going to be enough for the Braves? It sounds like the price is extremely high. And the way I see it, gutting the farm system is just as risky as shelling out a large contract to a pitcher.

 

[Mays-Fan]

I know we're probably never going to reach an agreement to signing big contracts for pitchers, but I think it's going to be the most likely way we get someone.

I am still for a Miller trade, but if it's going to take Duffy/Panik then hell no. Susac has been mentioned as well, but is he and a collection of minor leaguers going to be enough for the Braves? It sounds like the price is extremely high. And the way I see it, gutting the farm system is just as risky as shelling out a large contract to a pitcher.

I don't disagree with what you are saying, but the unmentioned issue here is timing. We have most of the pieces of a WSC contender in place. But they won't last forever. The near term window is limited. We need at least one, likely two, quality SPs and likely one OF. Sure , losing a guy like Panik would sting, but we have KT, and soon Arroyo. If we could do a trade that is basically Miller for Panik, that would be a huge win for us. You have to give to get, and the price of getting Miller would sting.

I don't think we would gut the farm to get Miller. Panik alone may be enough.

 

[Hangman]

We aint gonna do shit. Just suck some more.

 

[Mays-Fan]

Latest on Z. Making more sense for us if we can offer Panik for Miller. Gets us a quality OF option as well:

Latest On Ben Zobrist

Ben Zobrist is the Mets’ “No. 1 target” this offseason, according to Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports (Twitter links). The Nationals, Braves, and Giants are also among the leading teams for Zobrist. The Royals, meanwhile, are not expected to offer the same type of money that those other clubs are.

On the plus side, however, Zobrist will not require the forfeiture of a draft pick since the midseason deal that sent him to KC made him ineligible for a qualifying offer.
​

Yeah, he'll be 35 in May, numbers declining, etc., - I get that. No deal out there is perfect. And there aren't many deals out there. He fits The Window. If we could get him for 3/50, I would do that.

 

[LHG]

Looking over the starting rotations from the 2015 WS champs and the previous 5 teams before them, here are a few things I noticed.

One, rotation stability is key. Of the last six WS champs, only one team (2013 Red Sox) had more than 10 different pitchers start a game. However, if you look at the baseline of making at least 10 starts, only the 2014 Giants used more than 6 pitchers to start a game at least 10 times. They used 7.

Two, home grown rotations are good. Four of the last six champs had at least three pitchers in their rotation come out of their farm system (By rotation, I refer to the 5 guys who made the most starts in the regular season). The other two had two members of their rotation home grown. That is a total of 17 (out of 30) top 5 starting pitchers in the last six years. That does not count Ryan Vogelsong in 2012 or 2014.

Three, bargain bins can work. Looking at the top five starters from the six champs, of the 13 pitchers not produced by the team's farm system, 5 were either picked originally as waiver claims, trades or minor league free agency. However, 4 of those 5 did re-up through free agency before winning a ring (Vogelsong only counts once since he became a major league free agent after 2012).

Four, large contracts are given out sparingly. Looking at the top 30 guys, only 9 were signed to a contract of 5 years or longer in the season they won a WS. Four of those 9 were signed to 6 years or longer. Three of the nine were guys signed to team friendly long term deals with their original organization (Yordano Ventura, Madison Bumgarner and Jon Lester). Only two were 7 years or more and Barry Zito represents both of them (since he was a top 5 in 2010 and 2012). The other two were Matt Cain's 6 year/$127.5 million contract in 2014 and Madison Bumgarner's 6 year/$35.65 million contract, also in 2014.

Five, most contracts were team friendly. Looking at the 13 pitchers signed to 3 years or more, only Cain, John Lackey (5 year, $82.5 million), Zito (twice), Kyle Lohse (4 year, $41 million) and Chris Carpenter (5 year, $63.5 million) were over $10 million per year average. Thirteen of the remaining 17 pitchers were signed to one or two year deals at or below $10 million per season (Edinson Vasquez being the largest at 2 years, $20 million). Tim Lincecum had a 2 year, $35 million deal in 2014, a 2 year, $40.5 million deal in 2012 and a 2 year, $23 million deal in 2010 and Ryan Dempster had a 2 year, $26.5 million deal in 2013. Out of the 9 pitchers signed to more than $10 million per season, only 4 were signed to more than $15 million per season (Lackey, Zito, Lincecum and Zito).

That means, in the past 6 years, only three times did a big name free agent with a large deal pitch on a World Series champion. Barry Zito in 2010 and 2012 and John Lackey in 2013. While Lackey pitched well enough to be considered a number two in a rotation in 2013, Zito was, at best, a 4th starter both years (his gritty 2012 performance against Saint Louis in the NLCS notwithstanding).

My conclusion is that chasing the big name pitchers on the market is not the solution to getting a title in 2016.

 

[SFGRTB]

^I agree. I think the most important thing is to get 2 guys who can pitch 180-200 IP, of #3 or better starter quality. We don't NEED a co-ace, but the likelihood is that they will provide that type of value.

 

[SFGRTB]

I don't disagree with what you are saying, but the unmentioned issue here is timing. We have most of the pieces of a WSC contender in place. But they won't last forever. The near term window is limited. We need at least one, likely two, quality SPs and likely one OF. Sure , losing a guy like Panik would sting, but we have KT, and soon Arroyo. If we could do a trade that is basically Miller for Panik, that would be a huge win for us. You have to give to get, and the price of getting Miller would sting.

I don't think we would gut the farm to get Miller. Panik alone may be enough.

With all the pieces in place for another run, I personally just feel more comfortable adding someone via free agency to trading away the pieces already in place for a run, like young players like Panik.

 

[Mays-Fan]

With all the pieces in place for another run, I personally just feel more comfortable adding someone via free agency to trading away the pieces already in place for a run, like young players like Panik.

Shelby Miller DOB: 10/10/1990

Joe Panik DOB: 10/30/1990

Shelby Miller is 20 days older than Joe Panik.

We have a legit backup to Joe Panik in Tomlinson. IMHO, we need Miller right now more than Panik.

 

[msgkings322]

Just kinda dawned on me, this offseason has been by far the most intriguing and complicated, since 2010. I'm kind of enjoying it.

To me at least in year's past there wasn't that much to discuss, the paths were pretty easy to see. This is the first time Sabean and Evans will have to get creative in a while. Let's see what they got....

 

[Hangman]

I don't want to trade Panik or Arroyo or anyone but maybe a backup catcher. we should shell out the money and get 2 decent pitchers and a decent RF and call it a day. No use in selling our young talent for an okay pitcher just cause he will get paid less. Zobrist sucks nd is old. Don't want him at any price.

 

[RamsFan88]

We still haven't seen how Tomlinson holds up for a full year hitting against ML level pitching. Panik has proven he can handle the bat with the best of them. I'm leery of giving him up for Miller. I think a package of Susac and two top prospects (Beede & Arroyo?) would be a good deal for both sides.

 

[Mays-Fan]

This writer thinks we are going to get Greinke AND Cespedes:

MLB free agency, trade market to heat up soon

2. Greinke
At 32, the righty is two years older than Price. Greinke's also coming off one of the great seasons any pitcher has had -- 222 2/3 innings and a 1.66 ERA. He allowed one or no runs in 21 of 32 starts. His ERA hit its high point at 1.97 on June 2. It was 1.50 in 21 starts after that.

Suitors: See Price list.

Predicted winner: Giants. Greinke is pretty simple about this thing. He'll almost certainly sign with the team that makes the highest offer. Every team knows this, which could make the D-backs a major player. The Red Sox, Dodgers and Cubs could all end up in the mix.​

<snipppage>

5. Cespedes

Suitors: See Davis list.

Predicted winner: Giants. Could they really afford both Cespedes and Greinke? Inside the industry, there's skepticism the Giants would sign two big-ticket free agents, and pitching is a higher priority. But these are the kinds of additions that could position the franchise for a fourth championship in six seasons.
​

$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$

Bum/Greinke/Miller (traded for Panik)/Peavy/Cain

LF Pagan
3B Duffy
C Posey
CF Cespedes
RF Pence
1B Belt
SS Crawford
2B Tomlinson
P

Hey, a guy can dream, right?

 

[tzill]

I was never too warm on him. Wasn't keen on the Giants still paying a big contract, and giving up a pick, for a guy who is clearly not in the top tier and had a scary drop off in his fastball effectiveness. Glad he's off the table. I prefer Leake.

This also puts the Tigers out of the running for a top pitcher, but they might still be looking at a mid-level starter.

Yeah, who wants a guy who is 29 and puts up 120 ERA+ and 4.0 WAR. Guys like that grow on trees....

 

[tzill]

We aint gonna do shit. Just suck some more.

Well, as a Fakker fan, you would know suck.

Enjoy the Kobe retirement tour.

 

[tzill]

Looking over the starting rotations from the 2015 WS champs and the previous 5 teams before them, here are a few things I noticed.

One, rotation stability is key. Of the last six WS champs, only one team (2013 Red Sox) had more than 10 different pitchers start a game. However, if you look at the baseline of making at least 10 starts, only the 2014 Giants used more than 6 pitchers to start a game at least 10 times. They used 7.

Two, home grown rotations are good. Four of the last six champs had at least three pitchers in their rotation come out of their farm system (By rotation, I refer to the 5 guys who made the most starts in the regular season). The other two had two members of their rotation home grown. That is a total of 17 (out of 30) top 5 starting pitchers in the last six years. That does not count Ryan Vogelsong in 2012 or 2014.

Three, bargain bins can work. Looking at the top five starters from the six champs, of the 13 pitchers not produced by the team's farm system, 5 were either picked originally as waiver claims, trades or minor league free agency. However, 4 of those 5 did re-up through free agency before winning a ring (Vogelsong only counts once since he became a major league free agent after 2012).

Four, large contracts are given out sparingly. Looking at the top 30 guys, only 9 were signed to a contract of 5 years or longer in the season they won a WS. Four of those 9 were signed to 6 years or longer. Three of the nine were guys signed to team friendly long term deals with their original organization (Yordano Ventura, Madison Bumgarner and Jon Lester). Only two were 7 years or more and Barry Zito represents both of them (since he was a top 5 in 2010 and 2012). The other two were Matt Cain's 6 year/$127.5 million contract in 2014 and Madison Bumgarner's 6 year/$35.65 million contract, also in 2014.

Five, most contracts were team friendly. Looking at the 13 pitchers signed to 3 years or more, only Cain, John Lackey (5 year, $82.5 million), Zito (twice), Kyle Lohse (4 year, $41 million) and Chris Carpenter (5 year, $63.5 million) were over $10 million per year average. Thirteen of the remaining 17 pitchers were signed to one or two year deals at or below $10 million per season (Edinson Vasquez being the largest at 2 years, $20 million). Tim Lincecum had a 2 year, $35 million deal in 2014, a 2 year, $40.5 million deal in 2012 and a 2 year, $23 million deal in 2010 and Ryan Dempster had a 2 year, $26.5 million deal in 2013. Out of the 9 pitchers signed to more than $10 million per season, only 4 were signed to more than $15 million per season (Lackey, Zito, Lincecum and Zito).

That means, in the past 6 years, only three times did a big name free agent with a large deal pitch on a World Series champion. Barry Zito in 2010 and 2012 and John Lackey in 2013. While Lackey pitched well enough to be considered a number two in a rotation in 2013, Zito was, at best, a 4th starter both years (his gritty 2012 performance against Saint Louis in the NLCS notwithstanding).

My conclusion is that chasing the big name pitchers on the market is not the solution to getting a title in 2016.

This is a bunch of solid work. Nice job. However, it should be pointed out that "winning the WS" isn't necessarily a good criterion for the question "should big money FA pitchers be signed." A better criterion, IMO, is "did the team make the playoffs." With that in mind, I do not agree with your conclusion. It's a crap shoot once the post season begins, but GETTING TO THE PLAYOFFS is not a crap shoot. Big money FA pitchers don't always work out, but they can help. The key is picking the right one.

 

[tzill]

Shelby Miller DOB: 10/10/1990

Joe Panik DOB: 10/30/1990

Shelby Miller is 20 days older than Joe Panik.

We have a legit backup to Joe Panik in Tomlinson. IMHO, we need Miller right now more than Panik.

I'm pretty sure you're alone on an island with this one. KT is unproven; Panik is not.

 

[tzill]

I don't want to trade Panik or Arroyo or anyone but maybe a backup catcher. we should shell out the money and get 2 decent pitchers and a decent RF and call it a day. No use in selling our young talent for an okay pitcher just cause he will get paid less. Zobrist sucks nd is old. Don't want him at any price.

Hunter Pence says "hi!"

 

[Mays-Fan]

I'm pretty sure you're alone on an island with this one. KT is unproven; Panik is not.

I understand the board's affection for Panik, and I share it. But this is business, and we need an SP more than we need a 2B, given the team's position right now.

As for KT being unproven, I would disagree. Granted, Panik has more experience than KT, but objectively, not a lot. And KT had some pretty impressive numbers last year:

Kelby Tomlinson Statistics and History | Baseball-Reference.com
​

A 1.2 oWAR in exactly a third of a season - 54 games, 193 PA's. A .762 OPS with good gap power. And he only had a -0.1 dWAR, which I believe improved as his time at 2B increased. That projects out to a 3 WAR player over a full year.

In sum, I believe there will be little dropoff in playing KT at 2B over JP. I also understand that it is a gamble to believe that KT will keep it up, much less improve. But adding Miller as an SP is a huge improvement over what we have now, and we would still have control of him for 3 more years.

In sum, I believe that a Panik for Miller trade is the kind of risk the FO has to take in order to secure a legit #3 SP that we will need in order to contend.

 

[LHG]

This is a bunch of solid work. Nice job. However, it should be pointed out that "winning the WS" isn't necessarily a good criterion for the question "should big money FA pitchers be signed." A better criterion, IMO, is "did the team make the playoffs." With that in mind, I do not agree with your conclusion. It's a crap shoot once the post season begins, but GETTING TO THE PLAYOFFS is not a crap shoot. Big money FA pitchers don't always work out, but they can help. The key is picking the right one.

So the question I would ask is, does the team need a big money pitcher to make the playoffs? The Dodgers got brilliant offensive contributions in the first month of the season and a historic year from Zack Grienke. Can both happen in 2016? The Giants main problems in 2015, in my estimation, were injuries and lackluster starting pitcher. The latter, especially, has been written in depth already on this board, so I won't go into it. Would it require a big name guy (Price, Grienke, etc) to get the bump into the playoffs or would two mid tier pitchers (Chen and Leake, for example) get it done?