2016 Rosterbation

[MarcoPolo]

Possibly, but that would run counter to their pattern. Per Cots, their starting 2015 payroll was $173.2. Even if they only grew it by 5%, that's $8.5mm, bring them to $181.7.

Well, they've never been this close to the luxury tax before, so changing their pattern is quite possible. Especially if they have to pay it this year because they ended the season with a much higher payroll. (It's not so much the amount, which would be pretty small, but the fact that the rate would double if they went over the threshold again in 2016).

If I change my range from $175M-$180M to $175M-$181.7M, does that make you happy? (i.e., 180 & 181 are pretty close, no?)

 

[SFGRTB]

In today's SJ Mercury News : Giants start shopping for front-line pitcher

I hate the everyone is predicting Samardzija to the Giants. I think they could do a lot better than him, if they are surrendering a draft pick. If the choices are between Samardzija or trading for Salazar/Carrasco, I'd pick the trade.

 

[Mays-Fan]

Well, they've never been this close to the luxury tax before, so changing their pattern is quite possible. Especially if they have to pay it this year because they ended the season with a much higher payroll. (It's not so much the amount, which would be pretty small, but the fact that the rate would double if they went over the threshold again in 2016).

If I change my range from $175M-$180M to $175M-$181.7M, does that make you happy? (i.e., 180 & 181 are pretty close, no?)

Nope. $181.7mm is only 5%, pretty anemic raise for our FO given the trend. $175mm would be tantamount to conceding. I agree that they will likely not want to trigger the luxury tax. And maybe save some room for a mid-season acquisition.

 

[calsnowskier]

I hate the everyone is predicting Samardzija to the Giants. I think they could do a lot better than him, if they are surrendering a draft pick. If the choices are between Samardzija or trading for Salazar/Carrasco, I'd pick the trade.

I like the idea of signing him to a 1/20, though. That way we could offer him a QO next year and get something back.

 

[Stokes1931]

Twins win the bidding on Byung Ho Park:

Twins pay up to negotiate with Korean 1B Park

I guess that means Joe Mauer to 3B?

 

[Mays-Fan]

I guess that means Joe Mauer to 3B?

Careful now. I don't know how long I can keep Biggio here from going upside your head:

 

[filosofy29]

At at this point, knowing the Dodgers have a bottomless pit of money (and need Greinke), I'd be ok with a Parra, Leake, Fister offseason (assuming no good trades surface) for the Giants.

Obviously, I'd hope for more, but giving up draft picks and signing average pitchers with no guarantee/track record like Marco Estrada and Jeff Samardzija to big/long term contracts AND having to give up a draft pick is rather unappealing.

Hopefully.....a good trade or two pops up.

 

[filosofy29]

I like the idea of signing him to a 1/20, though. That way we could offer him a QO next year and get something back.

I'd be ok with this. Just to get the pick back the following year. That said, I have a feeling that some of the players who reject their QO this year, are going to be disappointed by the end of FA.

 

[SFGRTB]

Baggarly got into the rosterbation a little bit, suggested 3 possible trades for the Giants.

1) Pagan+Beede+Mac+Strick for Maybin+Teheran

This is a steep one, but Teheran is under contract long term on a pretty friendly deal and is a workhorse. Maybin would be an upgrade over Pagan. But boy, giving up three of our top prospects would be hard.

2) Belt for Carrasco or Salazar

Another tough call as the Giants would have to find a replacement for 1st. Carrasco and Salazar are legit, young and under contract for a long time. They would allow the Giants to go out and re-sign Leake and be able to have enough to spend for a 1st baseman. Unfortunately, there aren't many 1B options out there, and I don't think the Giants are ready to move Posey off 1st yet. Granted, if they did move Posey and trusted Susac to stick a whole season, they could chase a big OFer like Heyward. This would be a real game changer

Pagan/Blanco-CF
Panik-2B
Posey-1B
Heyward-RF
Pence-LF
Crawford-SS
Duffy-3B
Susac-C

Bum/(Carrasco/Salazar)/Leake/Peavy/Cain

3) Susac for Ozuna

This one is alright. Ozuna has a ton of talent, but is at odds with Miami. I personally would rather see Susac go for a starting pitcher, but a young, controllable outfielder is a good second. Ozuna can play any outfield spot too.

 

[calsnowskier]

Baggarly got into the rosterbation a little bit, suggested 3 possible trades for the Giants.

1) Pagan+Beede+Mac+Strick for Maybin+Teheran

This is a steep one, but Teheran is under contract long term on a pretty friendly deal and is a workhorse. Maybin would be an upgrade over Pagan. But boy, giving up three of our top prospects would be hard.

2) Belt for Carrasco or Salazar

Another tough call as the Giants would have to find a replacement for 1st. Carrasco and Salazar are legit, young and under contract for a long time. They would allow the Giants to go out and re-sign Leake and be able to have enough to spend for a 1st baseman. Unfortunately, there aren't many 1B options out there, and I don't think the Giants are ready to move Posey off 1st yet. Granted, if they did move Posey and trusted Susac to stick a whole season, they could chase a big OFer like Heyward. This would be a real game changer

Pagan/Blanco-CF
Panik-2B
Posey-1B
Heyward-RF
Pence-LF
Crawford-SS
Duffy-3B
Susac-C

Bum/(Carrasco/Salazar)/Leake/Peavy/Cain

3) Susac for Ozuna

This one is alright. Ozuna has a ton of talent, but is at odds with Miami. I personally would rather see Susac go for a starting pitcher, but a young, controllable outfielder is a good second. Ozuna can play any outfield spot too.

Not a fan of #1. Too high a price for a guy who has been a complete bust up until this past year. That just reeks of a buy high deal.

I like #2 a LOT. You all know my take on Belt. He is good, but relatively easy to replace. If we can get unicorn-lite talent in return, I don't think we can even consider turning that down. If Posey is not keen on moving just yet, buy Parker a first baseman's glove. This solves so many issues for the team AND keeps the 50M available to go after Heyward or Gordon and Greinke or Price.

#3 is probably a good trade. I am not that familiar with Osuna, but if he can play a ++ CF, than I think it would be a good idea. The Giants are deep at catcher, so trading off pieces for starters at other positions is a strategically solid move.

 

[LHG]

Not a fan of #1. Too high a price for a guy who has been a complete bust up until this past year. That just reeks of a buy high deal.

I like #2 a LOT. You all know my take on Belt. He is good, but relatively easy to replace. If we can get unicorn-lite talent in return, I don't think we can even consider turning that down. If Posey is not keen on moving just yet, buy Parker a first baseman's glove. This solves so many issues for the team AND keeps the 50M available to go after Heyward or Gordon and Greinke or Price.

#3 is probably a good trade. I am not that familiar with Osuna, but if he can play a ++ CF, than I think it would be a good idea. The Giants are deep at catcher, so trading off pieces for starters at other positions is a strategically solid move.

cal, I think you understated the horridness of that first trade idea. Maybin wasn't even that good last year, posting a .697 OPS. Big whoop. He did better in his first year in San Diego in 2011. I'd rather see Aoki starting in left field again. As for Teheran, his production dropped off considerably from 2014 to 2015. The Braves would be silly to trade him this offseason. Baggarly should be fired for making a comical trade suggestion (just kidding, mostly).

 

[msgkings322]

White Sox supposedly will be shopping Quintana, because they have 2 solid lefties already in the rotation (Sale and Rodon)

They need a catcher and left side of the infield help (3B mainly but SS too).

Susac + Heston + Adrianza?

They also may be shopping Avisail Garcia or Melky Cabrera as they have Klay Thompson's younger brother as a very toolsy OF who needs to start. Obviously we won't touch Melky nor would we want him, but maybe Quintana and Garcia for Susac, Heston, EA, Mac, etc basket?

 

[Mays-Fan]

Apparently, we have shown some interest in Darren O'Day:

Darren O'Day Has Multiple Offers In Hand

The market for free-agent right-hander Darren O’Day is moving quickly, reports ESPN’s Buster Olney (links to Twitter). The Beverly Hills Sports Council client already has offers in hand, according to Olney, and he’s planning to meet with the managers of some of those teams in the coming week. Olney lists the Tigers, Red Sox and Giants as three clubs to have shown interest in O’Day, though it’s not known if any of those three are among the teams to have extended a formal offer.​

Darren O'Day Statistics and History | Baseball-Reference.com

O'Day is very good, no doubt. He will command a premium salary for a non-closer reliever. He made $4.25mm last year, and will likely get a long-term contract at $6mm to $8mm per year at least. But is he worth it to us? Is he that much better than Osich, Strickland, Kontos, Black, et al?

I would be surprised if we pursue him given our other needs and (still) relative strength of our bullpen. Unless the FO feels that Romo, and perhaps to a degree, Casilla, are done.

 

[LHG]

Apparently, we have shown some interest in Darren O'Day:

Darren O'Day Has Multiple Offers In Hand

The market for free-agent right-hander Darren O’Day is moving quickly, reports ESPN’s Buster Olney (links to Twitter). The Beverly Hills Sports Council client already has offers in hand, according to Olney, and he’s planning to meet with the managers of some of those teams in the coming week. Olney lists the Tigers, Red Sox and Giants as three clubs to have shown interest in O’Day, though it’s not known if any of those three are among the teams to have extended a formal offer.​

Darren O'Day Statistics and History | Baseball-Reference.com

O'Day is very good, no doubt. He will command a premium salary for a non-closer reliever. He made $4.25mm last year, and will likely get a long-term contract at $6mm to $8mm per year at least. But is he worth it to us? Is he that much better than Osich, Strickland, Kontos, Black, et al?

I would be surprised if we pursue him given our other needs and (still) relative strength of our bullpen. Unless the FO feels that Romo, and perhaps to a degree, Casilla, are done.

I would think the only reason the Giants are looking at signing him is if they want some depth in the bullpen for a trade. If they felt that Casilla was done, I'm not sure why they would have let him option vest.

 

[LHG]

The ideas of potential trades make my brain hurt. Trading for a player just for the sake of a trade really seems foolish. Some of the guys suggested on this list is ridiculous! - Giants looking to trade for outfielders

This line, in particular really stuck out:
"career highs in batting average (.267), home runs (10), RBIs (59) and on-base percentage (.327)"

This is referring to Cameron Maybin. When a guy has been in the big leagues for 8 years and he just now set career highs that look like those numbers, its a good indicator that he won't improve the team.

 

[calsnowskier]

The ideas of potential trades make my brain hurt. Trading for a player just for the sake of a trade really seems foolish. Some of the guys suggested on this list is ridiculous! - Giants looking to trade for outfielders

This line, in particular really stuck out:
"career highs in batting average (.267), home runs (10), RBIs (59) and on-base percentage (.327)"

This is referring to Cameron Maybin. When a guy has been in the big leagues for 8 years and he just now set career highs that look like those numbers, its a good indicator that he won't improve the team.

I am not interested in any of those names, save for Reddick. But the As aren't trading him to the Giants.

 

[Mays-Fan]

FWIW - CBSSports Jon Heyman:

Inside Baseball: The needs of 14 big spenders; more from GM meetings - CBSSports.com

Re the Giants:

2. Giants

Giants people are saying they are playing things to "close to the vest," which is often a tipoff that they have big plans. Besides their three-year streak of winning the World Series in even years, there are clear holes to fill in the rotation and the outfield, which just so happens to be the two greatest areas of strength on the free-agent market.

The Giants are believed to like Zack Greinke, but it might take some kind of special pursuit (not to mention dollar outlay) to outbid the rival Dodgers, who have made Greinke their No. 1 target. The Giants have suggested to some they might actually try to sign two pitchers, which would presumably mean two below the very top group, which includes Greinke, David Price and Johnny Cueto. They've been linked to their own guy, Mike Leake, plus Jeff Samardzija. Those two together could receive about what Greinke gets by himself -- something in the $160-million range.

The Giants have been considering outfield star Yoenis Cespedes, but they are a bit concerned that his regular-year finish might cause his price tag to rise by $50 million, or more. They also have liked Justin Upton before. But in all cases, there's some suspicion they'd prefer to keep outfield pay to the range of $90 million, which is what they paid their own star Hunter Pence, who helped them win a championship before signing that deal (and two now).
​

$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$

My gut says one second-tier pitcher (likely Leake), and one of the better OF's available. Pure WAG speculation.

 

[dredinis21]

FWIW - CBSSports Jon Heyman:

Inside Baseball: The needs of 14 big spenders; more from GM meetings - CBSSports.com

Re the Giants:

2. Giants

Giants people are saying they are playing things to "close to the vest," which is often a tipoff that they have big plans. Besides their three-year streak of winning the World Series in even years, there are clear holes to fill in the rotation and the outfield, which just so happens to be the two greatest areas of strength on the free-agent market.

The Giants are believed to like Zack Greinke, but it might take some kind of special pursuit (not to mention dollar outlay) to outbid the rival Dodgers, who have made Greinke their No. 1 target. The Giants have suggested to some they might actually try to sign two pitchers, which would presumably mean two below the very top group, which includes Greinke, David Price and Johnny Cueto. They've been linked to their own guy, Mike Leake, plus Jeff Samardzija. Those two together could receive about what Greinke gets by himself -- something in the $160-million range.

The Giants have been considering outfield star Yoenis Cespedes, but they are a bit concerned that his regular-year finish might cause his price tag to rise by $50 million, or more. They also have liked Justin Upton before. But in all cases, there's some suspicion they'd prefer to keep outfield pay to the range of $90 million, which is what they paid their own star Hunter Pence, who helped them win a championship before signing that deal (and two now).
​

$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$

My gut says one second-tier pitcher (likely Leake), and one of the better OF's available. Pure WAG speculation.

My guess (and wet dream) is for them to sign two pitchers (Greinke and Leake) and trade for a young CF who is contract controlled for a few more years. If Pagan is our every day CF by the start of ST, we are in a world of hurt.

 

[Mays-Fan]

My guess (and wet dream) is for them to sign two pitchers (Greinke and Leake) and trade for a young CF who is contract controlled for a few more years. If Pagan is our every day CF by the start of ST, we are in a world of hurt.

To get, you gotta give. I just don't see that we have tradeable assets to get a quality CF without it hurting.

Our best asset right now is the checkbook - almost $50mm to spend to address two main areas, SP and OF.

 

[calsnowskier]

While I would like to get a young, stud CF, I do t believe it is critical. Pagan, when healthy, is AT WORST an average player. Then we have Blanco as the primary sub in CF. Advanced metrics say he is a below avg CF, but that does not pass my eyeball test. We also have KT as a potential there, though granted, I think that is a longshot. Mac and Parker also add depth in the corners.

I hope we do get one of the big 4 OFers or trade for a kid, but I do not hold that up to a make-or-break off season.

Getting a STUD SP, however...