2016 Rosterbation

[Mays-Fan]

Well, Aoki is gone for now, and Rasmus has been offered a qualifying offer worth $15.8M. So, it's gonna cost us quite a bit more.

If we have to pay $16mm for Rasmus, I'd rather pay low $20's for Heyward.

 

[LHG]

Stokes' post on Leake led me to this article - So the Giants need another outfielder now

The author mentions, while he likes Aoki, he was still a 1.0 WAR player both for 2014 and for 2015. I know that I've probably become a broken record both on Aoki and Blanco, but compare the two's numbers from 2015:
Aoki - 93 games, 355 at-bats, .287/.353/.380 1.2 OWAR
Blanco - 115 games, 327 at-bats, .291/.368/.413 1.7 OWAR

So why are people so high on Aoki coming back but meh about Blanco getting left field? Its not like Aoki's defense is better than Blanco's.

 

[SFGRTB]

Stokes' post on Leake led me to this article - So the Giants need another outfielder now

The author mentions, while he likes Aoki, he was still a 1.0 WAR player both for 2014 and for 2015. I know that I've probably become a broken record both on Aoki and Blanco, but compare the two's numbers from 2015:
Aoki - 93 games, 355 at-bats, .287/.353/.380 1.2 OWAR
Blanco - 115 games, 327 at-bats, .291/.368/.413 1.7 OWAR

So why are people so high on Aoki coming back but meh about Blanco getting left field? Its not like Aoki's defense is better than Blanco's.

Advance stats post:

Another nugget I found a while back is that Aoki is one of the worst base runners in baseball, which is completely unacceptable as a speed guy. I base this information from Fangraphs, which has a few tools measuring base running. They have Ultimate Base Running (UBR), Weighted Stolen Base Runs (wSB), and Base Running (BsR). They're all pretty straight forward, UBR measures only running the bases (taking first-third, advancing on errors etc.), wSB measuring only stealing bases and BsR combines all running into one category. For all these, 0 is the average.

Aoki's BsR in 2015 was -3.6. This wasn't a fluke either because of the leg injury. His career BsR is -5.8 (which is totaled, like WAR). His wSB was an average 0.6 (though poor so a speed guy), but his UBR was a putrid -3.4, which again was no fluke (career -7.7). He's surrounded by guys like Salvador Perez, Jhonny Peralta, Yasmani Thomas, Jose Altuve (who is a fast guy but a stupid base runner evidently).

Blanco, meanwhile, was one of the top base runners last year with a 4.2 BsR and a 2.7 UBR. Blanco has also usually hovered around 0 (average) or above.

This isn't some definitive conclusion that Blanco is clearly better, but just adding to the narrative.

Also, Matt Duffy was a fantastic base runner last year, something we knew already. The numbers back him up though.

BsR | FanGraphs Sabermetrics Library

UBR | FanGraphs Sabermetrics Library

wSB | FanGraphs Sabermetrics Library

 

[SFGRTB]

If we have to pay $16mm for Rasmus, I'd rather pay low $20's for Heyward.

I don't think we have to pay that for anyone, but if the Giants decide to go down that road then yes.

 

[SFGRTB]

Here's the list of players who receive qualifying offers and will cost the Giants a draft pick, should they sign.

• Brett Anderson, SP (Dodgers)
• Wei-Yin Chen, SP (Orioles)
• Chris Davis, 1B (Orioles)
• Ian Desmond, SS (Nationals)
• Marco Estrada, SP (Blue Jays)
• Dexter Fowler, OF (Cubs)
• Yovani Gallardo, SP (Rangers)
• Alex Gordon, OF (Royals)
• Zack Greinke, SP (Dodgers)
• Jason Heyward, OF (Cardinals)
• Hisashi Iwakuma, SP (Mariners)
• Howie Kendrick, 2B (Dodgers)
• Ian Kennedy, SP (Padres)
• John Lackey, SP (Cardinals)
• Daniel Murphy, 2B/3B (Mets)
• Colby Rasmus, OF (Astros)
• Jeff Samardzija, SP (White Sox)
• Justin Upton, OF (Padres)
• Matt Wieters, C (Orioles)
• Jordan Zimmermann, SP (Nationals)

We can probably knock Anderson, Gallardo, Iwakuma, and Kennedy of the Giants list because they could probably find a better arm on the trade market if they're giving up a prospect anyway.

 

[calsnowskier]

• Marco Estrada, SP (Blue Jays)
• Yovani Gallardo, SP (Rangers)
• Alex Gordon, OF (Royals)
• Zack Greinke, SP (Dodgers)
• Jason Heyward, OF (Cardinals)
• John Lackey, SP (Cardinals)
• Colby Rasmus, OF (Astros)
• Jeff Samardzija, SP (White Sox)
• Justin Upton, OF (Padres)
• Jordan Zimmermann, SP (Nationals)

These are the only protected FAs I think the Giants should even half-way consider. Truly, I only want them to look at the TOP guys of this list...

 

[dredinis21]

There's an article floating around that says the Giants are the #1 probable destination for Cespedes, written within the last 48 hours. I'll look for the link but it's an interesting concept.

 

[dredinis21]

Stokes' post on Leake led me to this article - So the Giants need another outfielder now

The author mentions, while he likes Aoki, he was still a 1.0 WAR player both for 2014 and for 2015. I know that I've probably become a broken record both on Aoki and Blanco, but compare the two's numbers from 2015:
Aoki - 93 games, 355 at-bats, .287/.353/.380 1.2 OWAR
Blanco - 115 games, 327 at-bats, .291/.368/.413 1.7 OWAR

So why are people so high on Aoki coming back but meh about Blanco getting left field? Its not like Aoki's defense is better than Blanco's.

How sustainable is this though? It seems more like a career outlier then anything else.

 

[SFGRTB]

How sustainable is this though? It seems more like a career outlier then anything else.

Outlier? Or career maturation? Gregor Blanco has had a nice trajectory in his career, cutting his strikeouts every year, while maintaining his walk rate. More power every year. No real crazy jump in numbers that usually scream "fluke". Maybe he's just coming into his own as a hitter.

 

[dredinis21]

Outlier? Or career maturation? Gregor Blanco has had a nice trajectory in his career, cutting his strikeouts every year, while maintaining his walk rate. More power every year. No real crazy jump in numbers that usually scream "fluke". Maybe he's just coming into his own as a hitter.

It very well may be career trajectory...I freaking hope so! Truth be told, I didn't look at his career stats when making that comment, more of an off-the-cuff comment.

 

[Mays-Fan]

Pure speculation here without a scintilla of evidence, but suppose that the Giants won the bidding on Byung-Ho Park, the first baseman power hitter from Korea (who allegedly has a bad glove). I have to believe they at least tried to.

Nexen Heroes Accept $12.85MM Posting Fee For Byung-ho Park

What to do with Belt in that case? I doubt he would be dangled as trade bait just yet, in case Park was a bust. Obviously, there would be renewed commitment to put Belt in the OF, where we now have openings.

Hey, we signed Morse for 2014. And there has been discussion of additional international interest this year. It would be a cheaper, albeit more speculative way of adding another big bat to the lineup.

Like I said - pure speculation. But the pieces could fit together.

 

[SFGRTB]

Pure speculation here without a scintilla of evidence, but suppose that the Giants won the bidding on Byung-Ho Park, the first baseman power hitter from Korea (who allegedly has a bad glove). I have to believe they at least tried to.

Nexen Heroes Accept $12.85MM Posting Fee For Byung-ho Park

What to do with Belt in that case? I doubt he would be dangled as trade bait just yet, in case Park was a bust. Obviously, there would be renewed commitment to put Belt in the OF, where we now have openings.

Hey, we signed Morse for 2014. And there has been discussion of additional international interest this year. It would be a cheaper, albeit more speculative way of adding another big bat to the lineup.

Like I said - pure speculation. But the pieces could fit together.

I doubt it was the Giants. They don't seem to want to move Belt to the outfield. Evans shot that down again the other day. And it just doesn't seem like their way to go out and sign an international, unknown commodity with a bad glove and trade a home-grown player.

But, there is a lack of evidence, as you said. So far we know he's not going to the Orioles, Red Sox, Tigers, Indians, Angels, Rangers, A's, Cardinals, and Padres.

 

[Mays-Fan]

I doubt it was the Giants. They don't seem to want to move Belt to the outfield. Evans shot that down again the other day. And it just doesn't seem like their way to go out and sign an international, unknown commodity with a bad glove and trade a home-grown player.

But, there is a lack of evidence, as you said. So far we know he's not going to the Orioles, Red Sox, Tigers, Indians, Angels, Rangers, A's, Cardinals, and Padres.

He allegedly doesn't field well, but he has a Hall of Fame bat flip:

 

[Stokes1931]

Pure speculation here without a scintilla of evidence, but suppose that the Giants won the bidding on Byung-Ho Park, the first baseman power hitter from Korea (who allegedly has a bad glove). I have to believe they at least tried to.

Nexen Heroes Accept $12.85MM Posting Fee For Byung-ho Park

What to do with Belt in that case? I doubt he would be dangled as trade bait just yet, in case Park was a bust. Obviously, there would be renewed commitment to put Belt in the OF, where we now have openings.

Hey, we signed Morse for 2014. And there has been discussion of additional international interest this year. It would be a cheaper, albeit more speculative way of adding another big bat to the lineup.

Like I said - pure speculation. But the pieces could fit together.

What was it about pitching and defense again? I can't quite remember what it was.

 

[Mays-Fan]

What was it about pitching and defense again? I can't quite remember what it was.

Ask Bobby Evans. He's the one who created two job openings in the OF.

And how did that Michael Morse thing work out in 2014?

 

[Mays-Fan]

So with Aoki unsigned, we are now at $141.1mm, assuming we sign all the Arbs (Petit, Kontos, Belt, Crawford) at MLBTR estimates.

That leaves $47.9 with 3 openings.

 

[MarcoPolo]

So with Aoki unsigned, we are now at $141.1mm, assuming we sign all the Arbs (Petit, Kontos, Belt, Crawford) at MLBTR estimates.

That leaves $47.9 with 3 openings.

I would be absolutely shocked if the Giants started the season right up against the luxury tax threshold - that would seriously limit any needed in-season moves. This is even more true if they have to pay the tax this year. I would expect them to start the season around $175M-$180M (or less, if they can). I'd expect them to shell out a max of $40M, and they'll probably aim for $30-$35M, for the remaining positions.

 

[Mays-Fan]

I would be absolutely shocked if the Giants started the season right up against the luxury tax threshold - that would seriously limit any needed in-season moves. This is even more true if they have to pay the tax this year. I would expect them to start the season around $175M-$180M (or less, if they can). I'd expect them to shell out a max of $40M, and they'll probably aim for $30-$35M, for the remaining positions.

Possibly, but that would run counter to their pattern. Per Cots, their starting 2015 payroll was $173.2. Even if they only grew it by 5%, that's $8.5mm, bring them to $181.7.

 

[Mays-Fan]

Twins win the bidding on Byung Ho Park:

Twins pay up to negotiate with Korean 1B Park

 

[MarcoPolo]

In today's SJ Mercury News : Giants start shopping for front-line pitcher