2016 Rosterbation

[MarcoPolo]

PS : you'll notice that the only FAs on my list are starting pitchers.

 

[MarcoPolo]

PPS: The entire IF (including the IF bench) are all home-grown...

 

[SFGRTB]

Here's my shot at the 25-man roster I see for opening day (caveat injuries, of course) :

SP :
MadBum, Matt Cain, Jake Peavy, FA #2 starter (Leake?), Heston (or FA #3/#4 starter, with Heston being the first call-up in case of suckitude)

BP:
Casilla, Romo, Kontos, Strickland, Osich, Lopez
AND one of the following :
Timmy? (long relief/emergency starter if not still on DL, if signed)
If not Timmy, then Petit or taking a flier on Cory Gearrin (If Gearrin doesn't make the team out of ST, I hope that they can sign him to a split minor/major contract for 2016.)

OF : Aoki, Pagan, Pence, Blanco, Parker

IF starters : Posey, Belt, Panik, Duffy, Crawford

IF bench : Tomlinson, Adrianza, Susac
(Hector Sanchez will be dropped from the 40-man, and Trevor Brown will take his place as #3 C in Sacto)

Pretty much how I see it. The lack of a true backup at 1st base is possibly something the Giants address. But other than that, I don't see how the Giants don't spend a chunk of their resources on a starting pitcher. I would also leave it open to trade for a starting pitcher. As usual, Susac is on the table, but his value is likely down so he could be more of a deadline piece after he can establish value again.

 

[Mays-Fan]

I think expecting more than 100 games from Oxy is foolish. Herk, Seaweed, and Shark I'd expect to be healthy.

Agreed. Which gets to the heart of my previous point: Do we risk trying to be a contender with an unproven rookie #5 OF? Especially given the fact that we (presumably) have money in the budget to get both a quality SP (eg, Leake), and a quality OF (eg, Rasmus).

 

[Mays-Fan]

SF Giants Payroll 2016 BEFORE FA’s

Numbers taken from COTS where available

Major Assumptions:

COTS has us at $173.2mm total for 2015. This budget is BEFORE we sign any FA’s. Keep in mind we will likely push the $189mm allowed before the luxury tax hits, and not exceed that.

--------------------------------------------------------------

Starters (5)
Cain $20.8 fixed
Bum $10.0 fixed
Heston $0.5
FA
Peavy $15.0

# Starters Subtotal $46.3

Bullpen (7)
Romo $9.0 fixed
Casilla $6.5 fixed
Lopez $5.0 fixed
Osich $0.5
Strickland $0.5
Petit $2.4 (Arb per MLBTR)
Kontos $1.0 (Arb per MLBTR)

# Bullpen Subtotal $25.9

C/IF (8)
Buster $20.8 fixed
Susac $0.5 Pre-Arb
Belt $6.2 (Arb per MLBTR)
Craw $5.7 (Arb per MLBTR)
Panik $0.5
Duffy $0.5
Tomlinson $0.5
Adrianza $0.5

# C/IF Subtotal $35.2

OF (5)
Pagan $11.3 fixed
Pence $18.5 fixed
Blanco $3.9 fixed
FA or rookie
Aoki $5.5 re-sign

# OF Subtotal $39.2

Prelim Total $146.6 (23 players)

This allows appx $40.0mm for acquisitions.

 

[tzill]

Agreed. Which gets to the heart of my previous point: Do we risk trying to be a contender with an unproven rookie #5 OF? Especially given the fact that we (presumably) have money in the budget to get both a quality SP (eg, Leake), and a quality OF (eg, Rasmus).

Yes. Not much of a risk, IMO. I think it's more likely we get two SP (Leake and Zimm?) and if we need to, add another OF at the deadline.

My 25 (barring injury)
SP: Bum, Cain, Leake, Peavy, Zimm
RP: Strick, KCya, JLo, Romo, Osich, Kontos, Broadway
IF: Buster, BB9, Joey P, Stamos, Duffman
OF: Herk, Oxy, Seaweed
Bench: Sac, KT, EA, Shark, Parker

 

[calsnowskier]

My 25...

SP: Bum, Cain, Leake, Peavy, Cueto
Bully: Romo, KCYa, Lopez, Strickland, Osich, Kontos, Petit
OF: Pagan, Pence, Aoki, Blanco, Parker
IF: Belt, Panik, Crawford, Duffy, Posey, KT, Susac, EA

However, I have stated before, and I still believe that there will be some decent-sized trades this off season. Parker, KT, Susac, Heston, etc are all guys that could pull something decent ALONE, but packaged together, maybe along with a Beede or Mejia type, could really bring back something of importance.

I would guess there is a 40% chance of a somewhat significant (or bigger) trade going down this off-season.

 

[Stokes1931]

Janja Susac helped Sacramento’s Croatian American community preserve cultural heritage

Janja Susac came to the United States from Croatia as a young woman and spent much of her life helping fellow Croatian Americans preserve and celebrate their cultural heritage.

Mrs. Susac died Oct. 23, the day before a room for folk dancing was to be named for her at the Sacramento-area’s Croatian American Cultural Center. She was 83.


Janja Susac Photo provided by family
Mrs. Susac’s daughter, Kristina Susac, said her mother was diagnosed with cancer in July. It was her goal to live long enough to attend the wedding of her eldest grandson, San Francisco Giants catcher Andrew Susac, on Nov. 14.

When her condition began rapidly deteriorating Oct. 21, Kristina Susac said Andrew Susac and his fiancée rushed to his grandmother’s Arden Arcade home. His fiancée donned Mrs. Susac’s wedding veil and the couple, along with the Rev. Mike Carroll, gathered in her bedroom. Father Carroll administered a blessing, breaking the Host into three pieces, and Mrs. Susac recited prayers in Croatian.

Seemingly satisfied, Mrs. Susac went to sleep and died two days later, said her daughter.

Read more here: Janja Susac helped Sacramento’s Croatian American community preserve cultural heritage

 

[MarcoPolo]

SF Giants Payroll 2016 BEFORE FA’s

Numbers taken from COTS where available

Major Assumptions:

COTS has us at $173.2mm total for 2015. This budget is BEFORE we sign any FA’s. Keep in mind we will likely push the $189mm allowed before the luxury tax hits, and not exceed that.

I've stripped out most of the post because the most important point is that it doesn't matter what the salary WAS in 2015. Cot's reports that the guaranteed salary for 2016 is $120.7M.

 

[MarcoPolo]

PS : it's possible that the Giants will pay the luxury tax for 2015. I'm not sure of the actual rules, but some have postulated that since the END salary was over $189M (even though the Giants didn't pay all of it) that they owe the tax. That sounds like BS to me, but contracts and rules are, well, contracts and rules - and not subject to logic.

 

[Mays-Fan]

I've stripped out most of the post because the most important point is that it doesn't matter what the salary WAS in 2015. Cot's reports that the guaranteed salary for 2016 is $120.7M.

I was using the 2015 data only as a baseline from which to estimate what the total 2016 payroll will be.

 

[LHG]

Pretty much how I see it. The lack of a true backup at 1st base is possibly something the Giants address. But other than that, I don't see how the Giants don't spend a chunk of their resources on a starting pitcher. I would also leave it open to trade for a starting pitcher. As usual, Susac is on the table, but his value is likely down so he could be more of a deadline piece after he can establish value again.

Remember, this is the organization that played Joaquin Arias at 1st base for 24 games during his tenure with the team. I don't think they feel its a big need to have a true 1st baseman as a backup. I would think they would go into the offseason thinking that Posey makes the perfect backup and will have a quality catcher (Trevor Brown?) ready at triple A in case Belt goes down with an injury.
As a few others have said, I think that the only real need they will fill through free agency is starting pitcher. Cal, I think, does bring up an option that could very well happen, trades. If that does happen, then, potentially, all our roster constructions go out the window, depending on who they trade.

 

[Mays-Fan]

I'm not being a PITA here, just throwing out a different perspective for the sake of discussion. We need an SP for sure. The question is do we need two. I am actually somewhat indifferent as to whether that second FA is an SP or an OF. I will be very happy if we get two of Leake/Zimmerman/Gallardo/Iwakuma, et al.

But if we did opt to get either Upton or Heyward, that would make for an interesting lineup:

LF/CF Pagan/Aoki
2B Panik
RF Pence
C Posey
LF/CF Heyward/Upton
1B Belt
SS Crawford
3B Duffy
P

One can argue the exact order - fine. One could almost pick this lineup out of a hat and it would still be awesome. But think that whoever is hitting 8th would have hit cleanup in 2008.

 

[SFGRTB]

Remember, this is the organization that played Joaquin Arias at 1st base for 24 games during his tenure with the team. I don't think they feel its a big need to have a true 1st baseman as a backup. I would think they would go into the offseason thinking that Posey makes the perfect backup and will have a quality catcher (Trevor Brown?) ready at triple A in case Belt goes down with an injury.
As a few others have said, I think that the only real need they will fill through free agency is starting pitcher. Cal, I think, does bring up an option that could very well happen, trades. If that does happen, then, potentially, all our roster constructions go out the window, depending on who they trade.

There are some intriguing names that we've laid out there who could be available in a trade, but I think the Giants most valuable and expendable piece is currently not so valuable thanks to injury. I think a trade is certainly in the cards, but I personally would like to see them sign one major pitcher, and then roll the dice on someone else on a short term deal. If that doesn't work out, ideally Susac bounces back from injury, re-establishes his value and the Giants grab someone at the deadline.

Regarding 1st base, I don't expect them to actively pursue anyone but it could be something you hear in the mill. Adrianza did play a full game there once. It just is slightly concerning they have zero depth there after Belt and Posey. Could be the difference between sticking with Parker and a low-key bat brought in (if Kelby shows he can play OF).

 

[calsnowskier]

Parker is a bit iffy in the OF. What are the chances he buys a new glove and becomes the 3rd first baseman?

 

[SFGRTB]

Or maybe the Giants go after Juan Uribe again, making Adrianza expendable. Edit: this actually doesn't really change much regarding 1st base. For some reason, I thought Uribe played there more. Only 16 career innings at 1st.

 

[dredinis21]

I would really like to see the Giants pour most of their resources into two SP, Leake and another. I think our lineup, when healthy, was very similar to KC, where at one point, everyone 1-8 was batting over .300 and they seemed to be scoring at will. Once injuries crept in, we saw the wheels fall off but I don't see the need for a big OF bat superseding our desperation for SP. If we sign a Rasmus type to protect against Pagan's eventually DL stint, we have a guy that can defend all OF positions and his bat is one that isn't a liability. I also hope that KT gets some work in CF this offseason as an added option.

But our focus IMO has to be SP. Leake is a great fit for this team. Zimmerman had a terrible year but is surely talented and if the price is right, I'd love to have him. Greinke would be a pipe dream and frankly I don't think we can afford him, but it would be great to steal him away from the Doggies.

Also, I have a general question for the board. I have seen a couple people refer to Heston as an insurance policy for the rotation...I don't get that at all considering that outside of MadBum, there was a large chunk of the season where Heston was the only other SP we could count on for hope of a quality start. Do you see Heston as a long term solution in the rotation or not? I do but I am curious as to why people would hesitate.

MadBum
FA (hopefully a big arm, Price, Zimmerman, Cueto?)
Leake
Peavy
Heston

To me, this is the ideal rotation moving forward with us allowing our younger guys to audition when injuries or rest are needed.

 

[SFGRTB]

I totally agree that we need to lock down the rotation.

My pause with Heston goes further than what he showed on the mound. Yes, he was the second best pitcher on the staff from April-July (which doesn't say much, but he was good). Yes, he threw a no-hitter. Yes, he's a groundball machine and with our defense that is definitely a plus. My concern with his was his second half struggles, his overall command issues, and the fact that he didn't really show what he was doing from April-July at any level in his career. Maybe he was just hot and unknown, but the league adjusted to him. There's also the main factor that Cain's $20M salary isn't going anywhere, Peavy's $15M salary probably isn't going anywhere and Heston can be sent to the minor leagues. Peavy was wonderful down the stretch and Cain always had his stuff but just didn't look right, there's some hope that with a full offseason back to regular training, he can become a decent back end guy.

I personally don't trust Heston to be more than a 6th man rotation guy, and would be worried if we went into 2016 with Bum-Leake-Peavy-Cain-Heston. There just aren't enough innings in that rotation. You have Bum, but then Leake who only pitched over 200 innings once, Peavy who can't get past the 6th generally, Cain who is a complete wild card, and Heston who faded down the stretch. In my opinion, the Giants need to add 2 guys who can eat up some innings to offset the probable lack of innings from Peavy/Cain, which leaves Heston outside, looking in.

 

[dredinis21]

I totally agree that we need to lock down the rotation.

My pause with Heston goes further than what he showed on the mound. Yes, he was the second best pitcher on the staff from April-July (which doesn't say much, but he was good). Yes, he threw a no-hitter. Yes, he's a groundball machine and with our defense that is definitely a plus. My concern with his was his second half struggles, his overall command issues, and the fact that he didn't really show what he was doing from April-July at any level in his career. Maybe he was just hot and unknown, but the league adjusted to him. There's also the main factor that Cain's $20M salary isn't going anywhere, Peavy's $15M salary probably isn't going anywhere and Heston can be sent to the minor leagues. Peavy was wonderful down the stretch and Cain always had his stuff but just didn't look right, there's some hope that with a full offseason back to regular training, he can become a decent back end guy.

I personally don't trust Heston to be more than a 6th man rotation guy, and would be worried if we went into 2016 with Bum-Leake-Peavy-Cain-Heston. There just aren't enough innings in that rotation. You have Bum, but then Leake who only pitched over 200 innings once, Peavy who can't get past the 6th generally, Cain who is a complete wild card, and Heston who faded down the stretch. In my opinion, the Giants need to add 2 guys who can eat up some innings to offset the probable lack of innings from Peavy/Cain, which leaves Heston outside, looking in.

That makes perfect sense in terms of your feelings towards Heston. I would counter with something you probably already thought of and/or know, which is that he pitched more innings then he ever had in his career so him fading towards the end of the season seemed more fatigue based then anything else...although there IS the risk that the league just flat out figured him out.

The Cain contract is interesting to me because as much as I love him, I have this feeling deep in my gut that Cain ain't gonna be the Cain we know any longer.

We def need a guy or two with an elastic arm that can regularly go 200 innings through the life of his contract.

 

[tzill]

Parker is a bit iffy in the OF. What are the chances he buys a new glove and becomes the 3rd first baseman?

I thought that was Poseys move....