2016 Rosterbation

[MarcoPolo]

I believe that Nov 20th is the deadline to add your own minor league players to the 40-man - after that date only new acquisitions can be added. So we are getting close to the date and ill soon know! (Not sure if this is the best thread for this or not - there were 3 where 'the 40-man' took up a lot of posts.)

 

[LHG]

My concern is age/injuries. Aoki will be 34 next year. Pagan is a roll of the dice health-wise. Blanco and Pence aren't getting any younger either. Parker was amazing in a SSS, but most of that was in less meaningful games. He could easily be a Brandon Hicks of the OF, too.

I think there is room and need for a proven, quality OF, preferably one that can play CF. I can't speak for the clubhouse aspect, but Rasmus looks like a decent choice. He can play all OF positions, as he did last year with the Astros. I could see giving him a 1/9 or a 2/16:

Colby Rasmus Statistics and History | Baseball-Reference.com

And I am leery of spending big $$$ to pay an above-market price for a long-term contract on a pitcher. The odds on longevity there are not good. Leake is as far as I would go.

If its a choice between Rasmus and Aoki, I find it hard to choose between the two of them. Rasmus has been a very up and down player offensively. He's posted a WAR as high as 4.8 in 2013 but he's also put in duds for seasons like 2011 (0.2), 2012 (1.2) and 2014 (0.9). He is unpredictable and coming to San Francisco won't help his offense. Aoki, however, hasn't been quite the same player he was in Milwaukee. He posted a 3.3 and 3.0 in his two years there but only 1.0 each in Kansas City and San Francisco. Granted, his season was injury shortened in 2015 so his WAR should have been higher this year. Also, keep in mind that he hasn't had any big injury problems before this year. He only missed about 20 games last year in KC and the two years in Milwaukee were injury free.

I saw that Baseball Reference has Aoki projected to post a .712 OPS in 404 at-bats for 2016 and Rasmus to post a .783 OPS in 434 at-bats. Crude numbers at best, but if either of them are accurate, and not very biased toward their current home field, that I ask, is Aoki renewed at $3 million better value than Rasmus signed at 1 year for $9 million as Mays-Fan proposes (would Rasmus sign a one year for $9 million even possible is another question)?

Here's an explanation of how they forecast at Baseball Reference - Marcel the Monkey Forecasting System | Baseball-Reference.com

 

[Mays-Fan]

If its a choice between Rasmus and Aoki, I find it hard to choose between the two of them. Rasmus has been a very up and down player offensively. He's posted a WAR as high as 4.8 in 2013 but he's also put in duds for seasons like 2011 (0.2), 2012 (1.2) and 2014 (0.9). He is unpredictable and coming to San Francisco won't help his offense. Aoki, however, hasn't been quite the same player he was in Milwaukee. He posted a 3.3 and 3.0 in his two years there but only 1.0 each in Kansas City and San Francisco. Granted, his season was injury shortened in 2015 so his WAR should have been higher this year. Also, keep in mind that he hasn't had any big injury problems before this year. He only missed about 20 games last year in KC and the two years in Milwaukee were injury free.

I saw that Baseball Reference has Aoki projected to post a .712 OPS in 404 at-bats for 2016 and Rasmus to post a .783 OPS in 434 at-bats. Crude numbers at best, but if either of them are accurate, and not very biased toward their current home field, that I ask, is Aoki renewed at $3 million better value than Rasmus signed at 1 year for $9 million as Mays-Fan proposes (would Rasmus sign a one year for $9 million even possible is another question)?

Here's an explanation of how they forecast at Baseball Reference - Marcel the Monkey Forecasting System | Baseball-Reference.com

Actually I was thinking that the five OF's would be:

Pence
Pagan
Aoki
Blanco
Rasmus

Normally I would leave a spot for Parker/Williamson/<rookie>, but with the others being a bit injury-prone, if we are to contend, we need a known quality OF who can deliver now. IMHO.

Also, I would go 2/16 or 2/18 for Rasmus if he wouldn't go for 1/9. Maybe even 3/25 - he's a young 29 (Aug 11, 1986). He made $8mill last year. The guy can play. He hit very well in the post-season. I think there are enough PA's in the OF to keep everyone happy.

Unless there is a serious move to make Belt a LF. That changes the equation dramatically.

 

[LHG]

Actually I was thinking that the five OF's would be:

Pence
Pagan
Aoki
Blanco
Rasmus

Normally I would leave a spot for Parker/Williamson/<rookie>, but with the others being a bit injury-prone, if we are to contend, we need a known quality OF who can deliver now. IMHO.

Also, I would go 2/16 or 2/18 for Rasmus if he wouldn't go for 1/9. Maybe even 3/25 - he's a young 29 (Aug 11, 1986). He made $8mill last year. The guy can play.

It is stuff like this that leaves me scratching my head:
"While Blanco has spent a good bit of time in center over his career, defensive metrics have always preferred him in the corner — especially the last two seasons. So, there’s an argument to be made that the Giants ought to consider adding a center field-capable player, whether as an upgrade or a platoon mate/back-up plan."
"several shorter-term candidates with track records in center (such as Dexter Fowler, Colby Rasmus, Gerardo Parra, and Austin Jackson)."

To compare, in 2015, offensive and defensive WAR (with at-bats in parenthesis):
Blanco (327) 1.7 -0.9
Fowler (596) 3.5 -1.0
Rasmus (432) 2.1 -0.1
Parra (547) 2.0 -1.5
Jackson (491) 1.7 0.1

According to these, only Rasmus and Jackson are better defensively than Blanco. Offensively, only Fowler seemed to post a significantly better WAR than Blanco. Assuming that Blanco's production was consistent and got as many at-bats at the next lowest number (Jackson), his offensive WAR would be closer to 2.6. If close to Fowler's at-bats, it could be closer to 3.1.

Looking further back on defensive WAR (2013-2015), here's where they land:
Blanco 0.8, -0.6, -0.9
Fowler -0.2, -1.8, -1.0
Rasmus 1.5, -0.5, -0.1
Parra 4.0, -0.8, -1.5
Jackson 0.7, 0.5, 0.1

Interesting that all five outfielders seem to be slipping defensively the past three years, as least according to defensive WAR. Gerardo Parra is the only one that posted any kind of good defensive season among the five in the last three years, which makes his slip even more pronounced. I know that this is a very subjective tool (isn't any kind of defensive metric?) but we've got to measure them somehow defensively.

Finally, looking at the defensive WAR, here's the change from 2013 to 2015:
Blanco -1.7
Fowler -0.8
Rasmus -1.6
Parra -5.5
Jackson -0.6

Simply put, why sign any of those short term center field options (or even suggest signing them in the first place) when they would essentially replace a player with similar production, offensively and defensively?

Considering the depth of outfielders we could have at triple A, I don't think its necessary to sign both Aoki and Rasmus. Plus Rasmus isn't going to sign with anyone as a 5th outfielder. He's going to look for a home as a starter.

 

[MarcoPolo]

Actually I was thinking that the five OF's would be:

Pence
Pagan
Aoki
Blanco
Rasmus

Normally I would leave a spot for Parker/Williamson/<rookie>, but with the others being a bit injury-prone, if we are to contend, we need a known quality OF who can deliver now. IMHO.

Also, I would go 2/16 or 2/18 for Rasmus if he wouldn't go for 1/9. Maybe even 3/25 - he's a young 29 (Aug 11, 1986). He made $8mill last year. The guy can play. He hit very well in the post-season. I think there are enough PA's in the OF to keep everyone happy.

Unless there is a serious move to make Belt a LF. That changes the equation dramatically.

I would not call either Aoki or Pence (or Blanco) "injury prone". Aoki and Pence were on the DL so long because a pitcher fractured bones in their bodies (Aoki was HBP twice!). Pence basically had little time to prepare his body for the season, so his wrist tendonitis and an oblique strain aren't a sign of 'fragility' IMO. Both will have a full off-season to relax, restore, and train for 2016.

 

[Mays-Fan]

I would not call either Aoki or Pence (or Blanco) "injury prone". Aoki and Pence were on the DL so long because a pitcher fractured bones in their bodies (Aoki was HBP twice!). Pence basically had little time to prepare his body for the season, so his wrist tendonitis and an oblique strain aren't a sign of 'fragility' IMO. Both will have a full off-season to relax, restore, and train for 2016.

I'm also looking at the groupings of IF/C, SP's, RP's, and OF. OF seems to be the weak link.

 

[tzill]

I'm also looking at the groupings of IF/C, SP's, RP's, and OF. OF seems to be the weak link.

I see what you did there....

 

[MarcoPolo]

I'm also looking at the groupings of IF/C, SP's, RP's, and OF. OF seems to be the weak link.

I was thinking that I'd be perfectly happy with:

Pence
Pagan
Aoki
Blanco
Parker

 

[calsnowskier]

I just dont see the Giants going after an OFer. The 4 we currently have in hand (Pence, Pagan, Blanco and Aoki - assuming the reports are true that the Giants are edging towards keeping him) make a pretty solid, even if not elite, core. Add to them Parker, Mac and potentially Tomlinson, and I just dont see a need in the OF. Getting a starter out of one of those three is certainly not a stretch at this point.

I can see a small possibility of picking up a vet utility guy, but really only if KT makes the full transition to OF (which, while rumored, is still only speculation).

Basically, the only thing that the FO needs to worry about this off season is the pitching staff. The bully is rather set, but could certainly use a dumpster dive or two to add some competition for the kiddies. The rotation, though, needs AT LEAST one big addition (I count Leake as an "addition" in this context) and preferably two. With Blackburn, Timmeh, Beede, Stratton, Mejia and Heston all potentially ready for a #5 spot (or higher), maybe taking one flyer on an injury prone guy would not be the worst idea. This strategy was employed in '10 to give Bum an extra 1/2 season of prep, and I think that season ended up working pretty well.

 

[Mays-Fan]

I was thinking that I'd be perfectly happy with:

Pence
Pagan
Aoki
Blanco
Parker

Which is certainly a perfectly valid way to go.

The upside is if Pagan et al stay healthy, Parker can be nurtured along, and if he delivers on the promise he showed in his SSS last year, we save money for other resources, and we develop a potential star in Parker. Everything is rainbows and unicorns.

The downside is that if Pagan et al start racking up injury time, and Parker disappoints, we will struggle in the outfield, which likely means we will struggle in the standings.

Good front offices of contenders don't like uncertainty. We have the budget. Pagan and Aoki will likely be gone after 2016, so there will be plenty of opportunity for an OF to rise from the farm then. If we intend to contend in 2016, and I think we do, our best chance is to get a quality OF in the off-season. IMHO.

(Is that a T-shirt? "Intend to Contend?" )

 

[Mays-Fan]

I just dont see the Giants going after an OFer. The 4 we currently have in hand (Pence, Pagan, Blanco and Aoki - assuming the reports are true that the Giants are edging towards keeping him) make a pretty solid, even if not elite, core. Add to them Parker, Mac and potentially Tomlinson, and I just dont see a need in the OF. Getting a starter out of one of those three is certainly not a stretch at this point.

I can see a small possibility of picking up a vet utility guy, but really only if KT makes the full transition to OF (which, while rumored, is still only speculation).

Basically, the only thing that the FO needs to worry about this off season is the pitching staff. The bully is rather set, but could certainly use a dumpster dive or two to add some competition for the kiddies. The rotation, though, needs AT LEAST one big addition (I count Leake as an "addition" in this context) and preferably two. With Blackburn, Timmeh, Beede, Stratton, Mejia and Heston all potentially ready for a #5 spot (or higher), maybe taking one flyer on an injury prone guy would not be the worst idea. This strategy was employed in '10 to give Bum an extra 1/2 season of prep, and I think that season ended up working pretty well.

Some good points, for sure. But budget-wise, we are in the high $140's before Leake and another OF. Adding Leake brings us to the low $160's. The luxury tax hits at $189mm. IMO, we have room (up to $25mm, but I doubt they want to cut it that close) to add a quality OF.

We have the budget. We can add a win or two with a quality OF. We don't want to risk paying more than we would for Leake. Our SP prospects in the system are considerably better on balance than our OF prospects, as you point out. But none of them look to be a Bumgarner, indeed few ever will. So I'm going to part ways with you over your last sentence.

 

[MarcoPolo]

The Royals didn't need to spend $180M ...

 

[calsnowskier]

The Royals didn't need to spend $180M ...

Christian Colon - #3 overall
Eric Hosmer - #3 overall
Mike Moustakas - #2 overall
Luke Hochevar - #1 overall
Alex Gordon - #2 overall



Good point.

 

[tzill]

Which is certainly a perfectly valid way to go.

The upside is if Pagan et al stay healthy, Parker can be nurtured along, and if he delivers on the promise he showed in his SSS last year, we save money for other resources, and we develop a potential star in Parker. Everything is rainbows and unicorns.

The downside is that if Pagan et al start racking up injury time, and Parker disappoints, we will struggle in the outfield, which likely means we will struggle in the standings.

Good front offices of contenders don't like uncertainty. We have the budget. Pagan and Aoki will likely be gone after 2016, so there will be plenty of opportunity for an OF to rise from the farm then. If we intend to contend in 2016, and I think we do, our best chance is to get a quality OF in the off-season. IMHO.

(Is that a T-shirt? "Intend to Contend?" )

I think expecting more than 100 games from Oxy is foolish. Herk, Seaweed, and Shark I'd expect to be healthy.

 

[dredinis21]

Did Byrd get enough ABs to vest the option he had?

 

[calsnowskier]

Did Byrd get enough ABs to vest the option he had?

No.

 

[dredinis21]

I like the idea of Pence, Aoki, Byrd, Rasmus, and Pagan in our OF with our AAA guys getting the call up should we have injury concerns.

 

[dredinis21]

No.

Anybody here want to resign Byrd as some thump off the bench and corner OF depth?

 

[calsnowskier]

Anybody here want to resign Byrd as some thump off the bench and corner OF depth?

We talked about it at the time. I think it all depends on what the org thinks of Mac/Parker/KT. Byrd has said he would like to come back, and apparently the org really liked him as well, so the door is certainly open.

Personally, I just dont think the roster-construction allows it. Too many options and too many other needs.

 

[MarcoPolo]

Here's my shot at the 25-man roster I see for opening day (caveat injuries, of course) :

SP :
MadBum, Matt Cain, Jake Peavy, FA #2 starter (Leake?), Heston (or FA #3/#4 starter, with Heston being the first call-up in case of suckitude)

BP:
Casilla, Romo, Kontos, Strickland, Osich, Lopez
AND one of the following :
Timmy? (long relief/emergency starter if not still on DL, if signed)
If not Timmy, then Petit or taking a flier on Cory Gearrin (If Gearrin doesn't make the team out of ST, I hope that they can sign him to a split minor/major contract for 2016.)

OF : Aoki, Pagan, Pence, Blanco, Parker

IF starters : Posey, Belt, Panik, Duffy, Crawford

IF bench : Tomlinson, Adrianza, Susac
(Hector Sanchez will be dropped from the 40-man, and Trevor Brown will take his place as #3 C in Sacto)