2015 UFA Wishlist

[gandydancer]

A handy from Gandy

Blue-collar work hands, going to hurt a little bit every once in a while I scrape myself.

 

[gandydancer]

This next deal for Suh will have to be at least a six-year deal for the guaranteed money he wants because of such a huge signing bonus involved and in six years he's going to be 33 or 34 years old. It will be hard to get a huge deal again, unless for some reason his contract is made to were he can get out of it after four years.

 

[jdwills126]

This next deal for Suh will have to be at least a six-year deal for the guaranteed money he wants because of such a huge signing bonus involved and in six years he's going to be 33 or 34 years old. It will be hard to get a huge deal again, unless for some reason his contract is made to were he can get out of it after four years.

Depends on how the contract is structured.....player option, buyout, or the ever asinine voidable years. If Suh structures most of the signing bonus in the first 3 years then gets voidable years / player option on the back end it is doable for him.

 

[Gulf of Brazil]

A handy from Gandy

stranger danger.....

I'm going back to where I feel safe

 

[Gulf of Brazil]

this is really long and it's from espn insider

A look at the best and worst NFL free-agent additions from last offseason showed a useful pattern. The teams responsible for making the 10 best additions were operating from positions of strength, having combined for a 98-61-1 record during the previous season (2013). The teams associated with the 10 worst additions had gone only 63-97.

NFL teams in the best position to spend in free agency frequently are the ones in the worst position to maximize their free-agent investments. The typical veteran addition can make a good team better, but he is not going to turn around a bad one. I'll have that in mind as weaker teams such as Oakland and Jacksonville enter free agency armed with salary-cap space to spare and strong motivation to spend. How much can they improve their fortunes by adding players who were, by definition, deemed expendable by their previous teams?

The 10 players on my "buyer-beware" list below are talented and/or productive enough to command more than minimum salaries. Some could be worth the risk at the right price and in the right situations, but there are reasons to question whether they're worth a significant investment.

(For a complete look at the 2015 free-agent class, check out Bill Polian's best available FAs list and Insider's team guides.)


Buyer-beware free agents
1. Nick Fairley, DT, Detroit Lions

Fairley is supremely talented, but he has never played a 16-game season. The Lions were worried enough about his health and consistency to refrain from exercising a fifth-year option on his rookie contract. That is a red flag.

2. Julius Thomas, TE, Denver Broncos

The Broncos have gone to great lengths in an attempt to maximize their championship opportunity while Peyton Manning is still playing. Those efforts have not included making Thomas a high priority to re-sign. Thomas is coming off successive seasons with 12 touchdown receptions, production that will be difficult to maintain in a lesser offense. He also is not much of a blocker, and he has never played 16 games in a regular season.

3. DeMarco Murray, RB, Dallas Cowboys

Chatter about a devaluation of running backs often misses a key part of the equation, specifically that special backs still command top salaries. There simply aren't very many of them. The question here is whether Murray is special enough to command top dollar for the long term. He is a tremendous fit in Dallas, where the Cowboys' offensive line is as talented as any line in the league. Would his production transfer to another situation? His injury history is another potential concern.

4. B.J. Raji, DT, Green Bay Packers

Raji has name recognition as a Super Bowl champion and first-round draft choice, but the last two seasons have been rough for him. An arm injury sidelined Raji for the 2014 season. In 2013, he ranked 45th (last) in Pro Football Focus grading for 3-4 defensive ends who played at least 25 percent of their teams' snaps.

5. Byron Maxwell, CB, Seattle Seahawks

Maxwell has made spectacular plays as a valued contributor in Seattle. Life for him figures to get a lot better from a financial standpoint, but leaving the Seahawks' defensive context will make it tougher for him to perform at a similar level.

 

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continued from above Buyer-beware Free Agents

6. Justin Forsett, RB, Baltimore Ravens

Forsett flourished in a Gary Kubiak's running scheme and with the Ravens' very good run-blocking line. It's unrealistic to expect similar production in a different context from a back who will turn 30 in October.

7. Michael Crabtree, WR, San Francisco 49ers

Crabtree has outperformed most of the eight players selected ahead of him in the 2009 draft. However, lower-body injuries have slowed him over the past two seasons. Crabtree also seems perpetually unhappy. He wanted top-three money as the No. 9 overall pick and missed a chunk of his rookie season as a result. He has complained about his role. There is some thought in the league that the receiver market is crashing. That could affect Crabtree.

8. Pernell McPhee, OLB, Baltimore Ravens

McPhee is the latest defensive player Baltimore has allowed to hit the market. Many of the others did not fare as well elsewhere (Adalius Thomas and Dannell Ellerbe come to mind). McPhee has certainly earned a raise. Teams must decide whether a situational player is worth every-down money.

9. Jordan Cameron, TE, Cleveland Browns

Cameron's production fell off in 2014 after an 80-catch breakout season in 2013. His speed and overall receiving ability carry appeal, but multiple concussions make him a higher-risk signing.

10. Reggie Bush, RB, Detroit Lions

Bush turned 30 this week and he has played a 16-game season just twice since entering the league in 2006.

 

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also from same article espn insider

Good intentions, bad odds for success: Tennessee Titans president Tommy Smith has said he plans to be aggressive in free agency, but what his team and other struggling ones really need are long-term plans, not quick fixes. Free agency has its limits.

For example, if Derrick Morgan leaves the Titans, as expected, the odds are against Tennessee finding a long-term upgrade in the veteran market. The Titans would be fortunate to break even on that one, not for lack of effort but simply because it is hard building a roster using leftover parts from other teams while your own core players are walking out the door. Is Morgan worth a huge contract? Probably not. Can the Titans do better than him in 2015? Probably not.

Teams reliant upon free agency tend to come away disappointed. Last offseason provides a good reference point. The Titans added quarterback Charlie Whitehurst and subtracted Ryan Fitzpatrick. They added receiver Dexter McCluster and subtracted Kenny Britt. A year later, Fitzpatrick and Britt are the more valuable commodities, even though neither deserved a fat deal from Tennessee last offseason. The Titans previously replaced Sen'Derrick Marks with free agent Sammie Hill. They replaced William Hayes with free agent Kamerion Wimbley. Those were net losses even though no one was screaming at the Titans for failing to keep Marks or Hayes.

 

[Gulf of Brazil]

Bill Polian's do's and don'ts for NFL free agency:
1. Do fill needs and make sure the player has a specific scheme fit
2. Don't sign a player and change his techniques
3. Do know the player you are signing very well
4. Don't believe that "your culture" will change a person's behavior.
5. Do realize that you are never one player away from a championship.
6. Do be very disciplined in sticking to your budget.
7. Don't pay a player above his grade.
8. Don't give A- or B-money (or years) to a player who doesn't play well on third down.
9. Don't give a four-year or longer contract, even to an A player, who is 28 years of age or older.
10. Don't give a long-term contract to a player with a significant injury history.
11. Do beware of players whose production dramatically increases in their contract year.
12. Don't chase the market, particularly for someone else's player, and don't allow agents to manipulate you.
13. Don't pay a free agent more money than the A-players or B-plus-players on your team.
14. Do save your money if you're not yet ready to contend.

 

[Gulf of Brazil]

Best available NFL free agents
By Bill Polian | ESPN Insider
A-plus


Players graded in the A range are defined as those whose talent, physical gifts, durability and production allow them to win their one-on-one battles with regularity and make a difference in winning each week. By definition, there are three-down players.

Ndamukong Suh, DT, Detroit Lions

Simply put, Suh is the best defensive tackle in the NFL. If not double-teamed, he will win virtually every time.



A


Dez Bryant, WR, Dallas Cowboys (Franchise tag)

He has a rare combination of speed, power, athleticism and hands. He's one of the most talented and most productive receivers in the league.

Randall Cobb, WR, Green Bay Packers

He is the ideal slot receiver. He has great speed, separation quickness and hands, and he is very versatile, as Green Bay used him in a lot of different ways in 2014.

Stephen Gostkowski, K, New England Patriots (Franchise tag)

I don't have a ton to say about the kickers on this list, but Gostkowski is very reliable and very consistent.

Justin Houston, OLB, Kansas City Chiefs (Franchise tag)

He is an all-around top-echelon NFL pass-rusher. He possesses outstanding power, speed and pass-rush moves.

DeMarco Murray, RB, Dallas Cowboys

He has great vision, acceleration in the hole and speed, and he's also a very good finisher at the end of runs. The only concern is his durability going forward.

Demaryius Thomas, WR, Denver Broncos (Franchise tag)

He is a solid No. 1 wide receiver in the NFL. He has outstanding speed, burst, length and jumping ability, and reliable hands.

 

[Gulf of Brazil]

Best available NFL free agents
By Bill Polian | ESPN Insider

A-minus


Jerry Hughes, DE, Buffalo Bills

He is an outstanding pass-rusher with great speed, rush techniques and the flexibility to "bore" to the passer. ("Bore" is the word I use to describe the ability of a pass-rusher to dip and drive past the blocker in order to get lower than him and gain leverage in getting to the quarterback.) He is less effective setting the edge against the run.

Terrance Knighton, DT, Denver Broncos

He has outstanding size, quickness, agility, balance and strength, and he's a very tough player. He is excellent against the run, and is better as a pass-rusher than people think.

Devin McCourty, S, New England Patriots

His combination of physical characteristics and instincts makes him one of the best safeties in the league. He has good ball skills, anticipation and savvy, and he's versatile enough to play man coverage on a slot receiver. His speed and tackling ability are both outstanding for a safety.

Jared Odrick, DT, Miami Dolphins

He possesses outstanding first-step quickness, toughness, flexibility and speed to the passer. He isn't the wide-bodied run-stopper that Knighton is, but he is an outstanding "movement" D-tackle.

Jeremy Maclin, WR, Philadelphia Eagles

He is an outstanding route-runner with good separation quickness to go with excellent speed. He also has good hands.

Pernell McPhee, OLB, Baltimore Ravens

He is a part-time player who is an outstanding speed-to-power rusher with natural pass-rush slipperiness. He's a major contributor in nickel packages. The question with him is whether he can maintain his effectiveness if asked to play full time.

 

[Gulf of Brazil]

Best available NFL free agents
By Bill Polian | ESPN Insider

B-plus


Players graded in the B range are defined as those whose talent, durability and production allow them to be productive starters who contribute to winning in the NFL. By definition, these are starters.

Mike Iupati, G, San Francisco 49ers

He ranks among the best run-blockers in the league. He possesses outstanding strength, leg drive, punch and aggressiveness. He is less effective in space when pass-blocking.

George Johnson, DE, Detroit Lions

He is an outstanding natural pass-rusher who has length, speed, power and slipperiness in getting to the quarterback.

Denarius Moore, WR, Oakland Raiders

His speed and burst are outstanding. But he lacks polish as a route-runner and as a receiver overall.

Torrey Smith, WR, Baltimore Ravens

His hands are inconsistent, but he is still very effective as a deep threat because of his excellent speed and burst.

Tramon Williams, CB, Green Bay Packers

Williams is getting older, but he still possesses great instincts, playmaking ability and a nose for the ball.

 

[Gulf of Brazil]

Best available NFL free agents
By Bill Polian | ESPN Insider

B


Akeem Ayers, OLB, New England Patriots

He didn't fit in Tennessee but found a home as a designated pass-rusher in New England. He has the length and speed to do a good job in that role going forward.

Bryan Bulaga, OT, Green Bay Packers

He is a solid all-around offensive tackle who is particularly well-suited to the Packers' offensive scheme.

Charles Clay, TE, Miami Dolphins (Transition tag)

He is a very good receiving tight end with good speed, separation quickness, hands and moves after the catch. He struggles with inline blocking due to a lack of bulk. He can also play some fullback.

Michael Crabtree, WR, San Francisco 49ers

His production was down this season because of a nagging ankle injury. He is a good route-runner with an outstanding catch radius and very good hands.

Brandon Flowers, CB, San Diego Chargers

He had a solid all-around season for San Diego after being acquired in the offseason. He is a valuable starter at a critical position.

Justin Forsett, RB, Baltimore Ravens

He had a great year in former Ravens offensive coordinator Gary Kubiak's zone running scheme. (Kubiak is now the head coach of the Broncos.) He has good acceleration in the hole, vision as a runner and the ability to avoid defenders, but his size and durability going forward are a concern.

Mark Ingram, RB, New Orleans Saints

He had a solid all-around season for New Orleans. He has very good acceleration in the hole and finishes runs well. He has dealt with injuries throughout his NFL career.

John Kuhn, FB, Green Bay Packers

For teams that utilize a fullback, Kuhn is a top value. He's a solid all-around fullback who can block, run and catch. He is a smart and versatile player.

Ryan Mathews, RB, San Diego Chargers

His problem since entering the league has been his durability. When he's on the field, he shows outstanding speed, power and finishing ability as a runner.

Rolando McClain, ILB, Dallas Cowboys

He has the capability to be a three-down linebacker. He has size, speed, instincts and a strong punch. His off-field issues have been a concern previously.

Brian Orakpo, OLB, Washington Redskins

He is a solid pass-rusher and a good edge-setter against the run in a 3-4 defense. His injury history is a concern, however.

Julius Thomas, TE, Denver Broncos

He is a receiving tight end with very good speed, hands and separation skills. Nagging injuries have been a concern. Blocking is not his strong suit.

Justin Tucker, K, Baltimore Ravens

He is a solid, reliable kicker with very good range.

Shane Vereen, RB, New England Patriots

He has speed, separation quickness, the ability to avoid defenders as a runner, really good hands and is obviously smart enough to master varied alignments as part of New England's pass package. He's also a better runner from scrimmage than most give him credit for, despite his size. He would be a good addition to almost any team because of his versatility.

 

[Gulf of Brazil]

Best available NFL free agents
By Bill Polian | ESPN Insider

B-minus


Jordan Cameron, TE, Cleveland Browns

He's an outstanding receiving tight end with good speed, excellent separation quickness and moves, and he has very good hands. His past issues with concussions, however, are a concern for any team considering signing him.

Frank Gore, RB, San Francisco 49ers

His entire career Gore has been one of the most productive north-south power runners. He's a winner whose toughness and leadership by example would be ideal for a contending team. He does have a long medical history and a lot of mileage, which are concerns.

Greg Hardy, DE, Carolina Panthers

If you based this grade on his on-field ability, he's an A. If you factor in his off-field issues, you might take him off your board entirely. The fact that he faces potential league discipline is an obvious concern. On the field, he is an outstanding natural pass-rusher with speed, power, slipperiness and good technique.

Jason Pierre-Paul, DE, New York Giants (Franchise tag)

He is an outstanding pass-rusher with very good length, first-step quickness and natural "bore." He has been hampered by a back injury so far in his career, which has to be a concern going forward.



C-plus


Players graded in the C range are defined as those whose durability, talent and production allow them to contribute to winning as a role player or a backup. Players who are graded below the C line do not appear on this list and are defined as those who fill specific backup roles on a roster and are not considered long-term players.

Kenny Britt, WR, St. Louis Rams
Antonio Cromartie, CB, Arizona Cardinals
Byron Maxwell, CB, Seattle Seahawks
C.J. Mosley, DT, Detroit Lions

 

[Gulf of Brazil]

Best available NFL free agents
By Bill Polian | ESPN Insider

C


Sam Acho, OLB, Arizona Cardinals
Mike Adams, S, Indianapolis Colts
Nate Allen, S, Philadelphia Eagles
Tyson Alualu, DE, Jacksonville Jaguars
Javier Arenas, CB, Atlanta Falcons
Joe Berger, C, Minnesota Vikings
Kroy Biermann, OLB, Atlanta Falcons
Alan Branch, DE, New England Patriots
Jasper Brinkley, ILB, Minnesota Vikings
Sergio Brown, S, Indianapolis Colts
Tarell Brown, CB, Oakland Raiders
Stevie Brown, S, New York Giants
Reggie Bush, RB, Detroit Lions
Darius Butler, CB, Indianapolis Colts
Bruce Carter, OLB, Dallas Cowboys
Quinton Carter, S, Denver Broncos
Adrian Clayborn, DE, Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Daryn Colledge, G, Miami Dolphins
Willie Colon, G, New York Jets
Dan Connolly, G, New England Patriots
Chris Conte, S, Chicago Bears
Chris Cook, CB, San Francisco 49ers
Chris Culliver, CB, San Francisco 49ers
Owen Daniels, TE, Baltimore Ravens
Brian de la Puente, C, Chicago Bears
Louis Delmas, S, Miami Dolphins
Quintin Demps, S, New York Giants
Ed Dickson, TE, Carolina Panthers
Justin Durant, OLB, Dallas Cowboys
Vladimir Ducasse, G, Minnesota Vikings
King Dunlap, OT, San Diego Chargers
Dwan Edwards, DT, Carolina Panthers
Nick Fairley, DT, Detroit Lions

 

[Gulf of Brazil]

Best available NFL free agents
By Bill Polian | ESPN Insider

C

Bradley Fletcher, CB, Philadelphia Eagles
Andre Fluellen, DT, Detroit Lions
Orlando Franklin, G, Denver Broncos
Doug Free, OT, Dallas Cowboys
Charles Godfrey, S, Atlanta Falcons
Jonathan Goodwin, C, New Orleans Saints
Brandon Graham, OLB, Philadelphia Eagles
Shayne Graham, K, New Orleans Saints
Jermaine Gresham, TE, Cincinnati Bengals
David Harris, ILB, New York Jets
Ryan Harris, OT, Kansas City Chiefs
Geno Hayes, OLB, Jacksonville Jaguars
Mark Herzlich, ILB, New York Giants
Roy Helu Jr., RB, Washington Redskins
Darrius Heyward-Bey, WR, Pittsburgh Steelers
Davon House, CB, Green Bay Packers
Brian Hoyer, QB, Cleveland Browns
Rodney Hudson, C, Kansas City Chiefs
Karl Klug, DT, Tennessee Titans
Dawan Landry, S, New York Jets
Jeffrey Linkenbach, OT, Kansas City Chiefs
Dwight Lowery, S, Atlanta Falcons
Rey Maualuga, ILB, Cincinnati Bengals
Taylor Mays, S, Cincinnati Bengals
Brice McCain, CB, Pittsburgh Steelers
Darren McFadden, RB, Oakland Raiders
Brandon Meriweather, S, Washington Redskins
Tony Moeaki, TE, Seattle Seahawks
Rahim Moore, S, Denver Broncos
Sterling Moore, CB, Dallas Cowboys
Derrick Morgan, DE, Tennessee Titans
Mike Nugent, K, Cincinnati Bengals
B.J. Raji, DE, Green Bay Packers
Cory Redding, DE, Indianapolis Colts
Brooks Reed, LB, Houston Texans
Stevan Ridley, RB, New England Patriots
Patrick Robinson, CB, New Orleans Saints
Carlos Rogers, CB, Oakland Raiders
Antrel Rolle, S, New York Giants
Eddie Royal, WR, San Diego Chargers
Mark Sanchez, QB, Philadelphia Eagles
Dane Sanzenbacher, WR, Cincinnati Bengals
Da'Norris Searcy, S, Buffalo Bills
George Selvie, DE, Dallas Cowboys
O'Brien Schofield, OLB, Seattle Seahawks
Lawrence Sidbury, OLB, Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Jabaal Sheard, DE, Cleveland Browns
Cecil Shorts, WR, Jacksonville Jaguars
Anthony Spencer, DE, Dallas Cowboys
Brandon Spikes, ILB, Buffalo Bills
Jacob Tamme, TE, Denver Broncos
Darryl Tapp, DE, Detroit Lions
Brandon Tate, WR, Cincinnati Bengals
Daniel Thomas, RB, Miami Dolphins
Cassius Vaughn, CB, Detroit Lions
Kevin Vickerson, DT, Kansas City Chiefs
Leon Washington, RB, Tennessee Titans
Sean Weatherspoon, OLB, Atlanta Falcons
D.J. Williams, ILB, Chicago Bears
Jimmy Wilson, S, Miami Dolphins
Kyle Wilson, CB, New York Jets
Stefen Wisniewski, C, Oakland Raiders
Jason Worilds, OLB, Pittsburgh Steelers
Shareece Wright, CB, San Diego Chargers



C-minus


Terrence Cody, DT, Baltimore Ravens
Letroy Guion, DT, Green Bay Packers
Colin McCarthy, OLB, Tennessee Titans

 

[Gulf of Brazil]

All eyes on Detroit Lions' Ndamukong Suh as free agency ramps up

The Lions also tendered restricted free agent defensive end George Johnson and exclusive rights free agents receiver Jeremy Ross contracts on Friday. Johnson got the low tender of $1.542 million and could draw interest from teams looking for a rotational pass rusher on the open market.

The Lions hope to sign a defensive tackle or two, add a cornerback and bring back Rashean Mathis to bolster a defense that ranked second in the NFL last year but could lose its top four interior linemen to free agency next week.

Arizona Cardinals defensive tackle Dan Williams is believed to be one of the Lions' top targets at the position, and the team has already hosted Kendall Langford, who was cut by the St. Louis Rams last month, on a visit.

 

[Gulf of Brazil]

If the Lions don't sign Suh and with the above possibility of signing Williams or Langford or maybe both, is it more likely that Mayhew will focus on signing Fairley as their #DT ? That's kind of my thought process at the moment.

Dan Williams, NT for the Arizona Cardinals at NFL.com

Kendall Langford: Career Stats at NFL.com

seems a bit odd targeting a NT but maybe Williams can be that 3-tech or is there truly a possibility by looking at, possibly signing Williams, the defense switches to a 3-4 base.

Thoughts ?

 

[Gulf of Brazil]

interwebz rumors

NFL Rumors - March 7 Updates:

NFL Rumors - WalterFootball.com

nothing against RB C J Spiller but after just cutting Bush

The Cardinals, Lions, Dolphins, Patriots, Jets, 49ers and Redskins have interest in C.J. Spiller. - Rand Getlin, Yahoo!

NFL Rumors - March 6 Updates:

"Raiders not only letting Stefen Wisniewski test free agent market but I’m hearing he’s not coming back." - Vic Tafur, San Francisco Chronicle

the following in conjunction with the Wisniewski above makes little sense.

NFL Rumors - March 5 Updates:

"My sense is Raiders will be players on Rodney Hudson, Chris Myers probably a Plan B at center." - Bill Williamson, ESPN

BB_72: so why would the Raiders let Wis go then turn around and possibly bring in Hudson.

 

[TwoCents22]

I was for tagging Suh. That being said, if we were able to land Iupati, Knighton, and Kareem Jackson, I would be very happy.

Reason I used those names is I just read a rumor reported that those guys are likely top targets for Detroit. While I don't like that Iupati is not great in pass protection, the way Lombardi wants to run the ball(even though we are built to pass), he would be a great fit.

If we landed those 3, they could look at DT and RB in the draft, and I will admit that they were right to not tag Suh. But, if they don't land anyone significant, I will still think they made a mistake not tagging Suh.

 

[Old Lion]

If the Lions don't sign Suh and with the above possibility of signing Williams or Langford or maybe both, is it more likely that Mayhew will focus on signing Fairley as their #DT ? That's kind of my thought process at the moment.

Dan Williams, NT for the Arizona Cardinals at NFL.com

Kendall Langford: Career Stats at NFL.com

seems a bit odd targeting a NT but maybe Williams can be that 3-tech or is there truly a possibility by looking at, possibly signing Williams, the defense switches to a 3-4 base.

Thoughts ?

I like Williams. He is a decent replacement for Suh in that he does not put up huge numbers but is very disruptive. Like you said it would allow us to use different looks as well.

Knighton would not be bad either. One of those 2 and then one of either Mosely or Langford. We would need to draft one as well.