2015 Free Agents

[CreepCreep2014]

If Denver passes on Manning, I would expect him to retire...OR...a long shot if you ask me. What about AZ for a yr? Manning, keep Fitz with Floyd, Brown, decent RB core. He would play indoors more too. Manning would make the TE better also. Elly in that offense would be top 5 RB based on check downs alone. Now I know they have Plamer, but man I think that would be a good fit.

 

[Yankee Traveler]

I can see Rex chasing Manning.

I cannot see Manning accepting any offer to play in Buffalo.

 

[Southieinnc]

I can see Rex chasing Manning.

I cannot see Manning accepting any offer to play in Buffalo.

No way Manning plays in Buffalo.
1st choice - Denver
2nd choice - Warm weather
3rd choice - retirement
32nd choice - Buffalo

 

[BigKen]

Belichick has historically cut a player one year early rather than one year late. Wilfork and Mayo will either restructure or be cut. Wilfork played 70% of the defensive snaps this year but his tackle totals have gone down. Mayo has a very diminished value with Collins and Hightower. The Patriots rarely use a three linebacker defense and Akeem Ayers is younger and faster than Mayo.


Critical signings are Revis and McCourty. Revis will command top dollars. The top CB in the league gets $14M a year. The easiest way to get Revis is guaranteed money and at 29 he's in his prime. Rumors are all over Boston that the Patriots are offering $50M-$65M guaranteed. McCourty could get the Franchise tag. Safties will get about $9.5M if franchised. The Pats may put the tag on him to hold him in place and negotiate a new contract. Vareen is number three. He's not an every down back and he's really not a running back per say, he's a receiver out of the backfield but he can carry the ball for quick traps etc. $3-$4M a year should make him happy to stay.


The rest of the free agents are going to have to take a back seat until the secondary is secure.

 

[#1BostonFan]

What are the odds Revis gets the long term deal he wants? I believe it will take 35-50 million guaranteed and a 4-5 year contract to bring him back. In my mind he's the #1 need this offseason and we should pay him whatever it takes. I'd be fine with Revis signing a 4-5 year deal with us, even though he turns 30 in July.

 

[BigKen]

Heard a discussion today regarding Revis. From the way I understood what was being said, Revis would like to stay with the Patriots. There's a sense he could win one or two more rings. The issue is that he still wants to be paid as one of, if not the top CB in the NFL. There are a number of rumors flying around but what was said today makes a ton of sense. The Patriots can offer Revis a 5 year contract which would take him until he's 35. The first three years would be guaranteed at $15.5M a year and the final two years would be a Patriot option at $31M. That puts the contract at 5 years $77M.

This is only speculation but if the Patriots come up with anything similar, it automatically gives them $15M in immediate cap space. If they can renegotiate with Mayo and Wilfork they could possibly pick up another 10. With roughly $25M in cap space, resigning McCourty, Gostkowski and Vereen would seem almost certain. Again, it's speculation but somebody put a lot of work into making Revis the highest paid CB in the NFL and pulling the Patriots' butt out of the fire......

Sure seems like a win-win to me......

 

[SDGuy73]

Heard a discussion today regarding Revis. From the way I understood what was being said, Revis would like to stay with the Patriots. There's a sense he could win one or two more rings. The issue is that he still wants to be paid as one of, if not the top CB in the NFL. There are a number of rumors flying around but what was said today makes a ton of sense. The Patriots can offer Revis a 5 year contract which would take him until he's 35. The first three years would be guaranteed at $15.5M a year and the final two years would be a Patriot option at $31M. That puts the contract at 5 years $77M.

This is only speculation but if the Patriots come up with anything similar, it automatically gives them $15M in immediate cap space. If they can renegotiate with Mayo and Wilfork they could possibly pick up another 10. With roughly $25M in cap space, resigning McCourty, Gostkowski and Vereen would seem almost certain. Again, it's speculation but somebody put a lot of work into making Revis the highest paid CB in the NFL and pulling the Patriots' butt out of the fire......

Sure seems like a win-win to me......

That sounds very similar to what Mike Reiss wrote. Here's the break down.

Terms: Five years, $80 million
Signing bonus: $16 million

2015
Base salary: $6 million (guaranteed)
Cap figure: $14.2 million ($9.2 million plus $5 million from original deal)

2016
Base salary: $10 million (guaranteed)
Cap figure: $13.2 million

2017
Base salary: $10 million (guaranteed)
Cap figure: $13.2 million
Option bonus: $10 million (decided on final day of league year)

2018
Base salary: $14 million

2019
Base salary: $14 million

The thought behind this deal was to show Revis the respect of the $16 million average per year salary he's earned the last two years, which sets the benchmark for the position. Arizona's Patrick Peterson ($14.01 million) and Seattle's Richard Sherman ($14 million) are the next in line. It also pays him $22 million in the first year (between signing bonus and base salary) and guarantees him $42 million (all paid in the first three years).

At that point, Revis would be turning 33 and if he's still playing at a high level, there is a chance to earn a $10 million option bonus that would activate the final two years of the pact at $14 million per season. So the total in guarantees and bonuses would be $52 million, although some would argue that the team might not have the intention of ever picking up the $10 million option bonus (or the final two years at $28 million). Extending the deal five years could help the team from the standpoint of spreading out the cap hit.

When I ran this by one NFL source not connected with a team who I believe has no agenda but is knowledgeable in contract dealings, the feeling was that perhaps the numbers were a bit lower than Revis might be able to command.

 

[BigKen]

The Author, Miguel Benzan is the Patriot's cap expert. The guy is a cap genius. This is a beautiful article.

Written By: Miguel Benzan
Posted February 26, 2015 at 6:31 am

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As of February 26, I have the Patriots 2015 total cap commitments as $152,495,147. This total is AFTER the Patriots signed all of its practice squad players to 2015 contracts and presumes that the Patriots will tender all 5 ERFAs. There have been several projections for the 2015 League cap. They have ranged from $138 million to $146 million. I will use the latest projection of $143 million. I project that that the Patriots adjusted cap number will be about $1.88 million higher than the league cap number. So, as of February 24 I project the Patriots to be over their projected cap number by about $7.6 million. So it appears that the Patriots will need to create cap space by releasing veterans or renegotiating existing contracts. There are plenty of opportunities to do both, thereby opening up millions of dollars under the cap.

When determining the cap savings from releasing players, keep in mind the Rule of 51. When a player from the top 51 is released or traded, the base salary of the player with the 52nd-highest cap number is added to the cap. For example, if Amendola was released, his cap number would be lowered by $2,100,000, although the actual team savings would be only $1,590,000 because another player’s $510,000 base salary would be added to the team cap.

Here’s how I predict that the Patriots will free up cap space. Please note that following some of these options will result in increasing the player’s cap numbers for future seasons. In another blog post I list some other ways that the Patriots could create cap space.

1. Extend Darrelle Revis I outline several possible extensions between the Patriots and Darrelle Revis in this blog post. My preferred deal would create $10 million in cap space for 2015. Under this deal Revis’ 2016/2017/2018 cap numbers would be $15.5 million each.
2. After Jerod Mayo passes a physical redo Jerod Mayo’s deal similar to the 2014 Vince Wilfork restructure but without a signing bonus for a cap savings of $4,450,000.
   
   
   It is likely that this restructure will not happen until after the spring. The $4.45 million cap savings would provide the cushion typically carried by the Patriots for the regular season.
3. Release Vince Wilfork for a net cap savings of $7,556,667. As a huge fan of Vince Wilfork I would love to be wrong about this. I tried to find a comparable player to him and the closest I came was Kevin Williams last year who signed with the Seahawks for $2.1 million. Am very doubtful that Vince would agree to such a paycut.
4. Extend Nate Solder for a net cap savings of $3.438 million. I would use the deal struck between the Arizona Cardinals and Jared Veldheer in March of 2014 as a template. 5 year, $35 million deal. $7.5 million signing bonus. 500,000 each year in 46-man active roster bonuses.
   • 2015 – $7.5m signing bonus, $2 million fully guaranteed salary, $500,000 in 46-man active roster bonuses. 4 million cap number
   • 2016 – $6 million salary. $3 million guaranteed for injury at start of deal, becomes fully guaranteed at the start of 2016 season. $500,000 in 46-man active roster bonuses. $8 million cap number
   • 2017 – $6 million salary. $500,000 in 46-man active roster bonuses. $8 million cap number.
   • 2018 – $5.5 million salary. $500,000 in 46-man active roster bonuses. $7.5 million cap number.
   • 2019 – $5.5 million salary. $500,000 in 46-man active roster bonuses. $7.5 million cap number.
   As rich as this deal sounds, this would put Solder among the lowest paid left tackles who are NOT on a rookie contract.
   
   
5. Lower Danny Amendola’s salary from $4 million to $1.9 million – net cap savings of $2,100,000 which is $510,000 more than what would be achieved by releasing him. Amendola’s 2015 cap number would then be $3.6 million. Releasing Amendola before June 2nd would cause a dead money hit of $3.6 million. I would give Amendola the chance to earn back the money by reaching NLTBE incentives. The incentives could be for
   1.Receptions – Anything more than 27 receptions would be NLTBE
   2.Receiving Yards – Anything more than 200 receiving yards would be NLTBE
   3.Receiving TDs – Anything more than 1 receiving TD would be NLTBE
   4.Wins – Anything more than 12 wins would be NLTBEFor the same amount of cap space as releasing him the Patriots would have on their roster a capable backup for Edelman. I outline other cap scenarios for the Patriots and Danny Amendola in this blog post.
6. Trade or Waive Alfonzo Dennard – net cap savings of about $1 million. Because Alfonzo earned a Proven Performance Escalator, his 2015 salary will increase to the lowest RFA tender which is currently projected to be $1.539 million. Since it seems that both Logan Ryan and Malcolm Butler have passed Dennard on their depth chart, there are better uses for Dennard’s $1.539 million salary especially when Dennard has a minuscule dead money hit of $14,462.

Revis $10,000,000
Mayo $4,450,000
Wilfork $7,556,667
Solder $3,438,000
Amendola $2,100,000
Dennard $1,029,000
Totals Savings $28,573,667

As you can see from above, doing all these moves will take the Pats from over by $7.6 million to under the cap by $21 million. The six above moves would increase

How I would use this $21 million in cap space.
1.) Sign Stephen Gostkowski to a 5-year deal, $19 million deal. $5 million signing bonus. Would no longer have a $50,000 Pro Bowl bonus in his deal. Instead will increase his offseason workout bonus money from $100,000 to $150,000. This deal would make Stephen the highest paid kicker with a APY of $3.8 million.
2015 thru 2017
Base salary: $1.85 million (fully guaranteed)
Offseason workout: $150,000
Cap figure: $3,000,000
2018
Base salary: $3.35 million
Offseason workout: $150,000
Cap figure: $4.5 million
2019
Base salary: $4.35 million
Offseason workout: $150,000
Cap figure: $5.5 million

2.) Sign Danny Aiken to a veteran minimum deal – Net impact to 2015 cap – $75,000
3.) Sign Chris White to a veteran minimum deal – Net impact to 2015 cap – $75,000
4.) Sign Jonathan Casillas to a two-year deal with a $1.5 million cap number in 2015 and $2 million cap number in 2016.
5.) Sign Alan Branch to an one-year deal worth $1 million.
6.) Sign Stevan Ridley to an incentive-laden deal worth $1 million.
7.) Reach a long-term deal with Devin McCourty. 2015 cap hit would be $4.2 million. $16.5 million ($11 million signing bonus) would be fully guaranteed at time of signing bonus
2015
Base salary: $1.5 million (fully guaranteed)
46-man active roster bonus: $500,000
Cap figure: $4,200,000
2016
Base salary: $4 million
46-man active roster bonus: $500,000
Cap figure: $6.7 million
2017
Base salary: $6 million
46-man active roster bonus: $500,000
Cap figure: $8.7 million
2018
Base salary: $6.75 million
46-man active roster bonus: $500,000
Cap figure: $9.45 million
2019
Base salary: $9.5 million
46-man active roster bonus: $500,000
Cap figure: $12.2 million
8.) Pay for the 2015 draft class – $1.5 million in cap space.
9.) Pay for players 52 and 53 – $870,000
10.) Pay for the 10-man practice squad – ($6,600 *17 weeks * 10 players) = $1,122,000. Will round up to $1,250,000 since Patriots typically pay some practice squad players more than the minimum.
11.) Have a cushion for the NLTBE 46-man active roster bonuses that could be earned by Mayo, Edelman, Vollmer, Browner, Blount and Wendell. If all six players play in all sixteen games, the Patriots will then lose $1.2 million in cap space.
12.) Have a cushion for other reachable NLTBE incentives ($4.5 million). The $4.5 million comes from Browner’s playing-time incentives ($500,000), Vollmer’s playing-time incentive ($1 million) and Mayo’s playing-time incentives ($3 million).
13.) Have a cushion to replace injured players during preseason and regular season – $2 million.
14.) Have a cushion to extend players during regular season. The Patriots have 10 players scheduled to be RFAs after the 2015 season. It is likely that at least five of them make the 53-man roster – $2 million.

Player Date Cap Cost
Gostkowski March ($2,490,000)
Aiken March ($75,000)
White March ($75,000)
Casillas March ($490,000)
Branch March ($490,000)
Ridley March ($490,000)
McCourty March ($3,690,000)
2015 Draft Class May ($1,500,000)
Cushion to replace injured players July ($2,000,000)
Players 52 and 53 September ($870,000)
10-man practice squad September ($1,250,000)
Cap Space created by roster cuts September $2,000,000
46-man active roster bonus cushion September ($1,200,000)
NLTBE incentives cushion September ($4,500,000)
Extensions cushion September ($2,000,000)
($19,120,000)
Cap Space after the 6 moves $20,958,074
Cap Space to go after Free Agents $1,838,074
The Patriots will be still able to sign players from other teams under this scenario since it is very likely that
1.) I have overstated some player’s 2015 cap hits
2.) they may use lower cushion numbers that I should
3.) they could reach extensions/restructures with other players (Browner, Vollmer, Brady) that could create cap space

 

[CreepCreep2014]

OK...so Tvyon Branch was cut by Oak...I love this guy!! He was one of the best S in the league. I know he has been hurt, but I would seriously pass on Harvin or Bush and try and get this guy for a few yrs. Ya know....that show you can still play deal. He has been hurt the past 2 yrs and would fit in nicely. NE could seriously have the best 2ndary in football: Revis, Browner, DMC, Branch....ya, I am liking that.

 

[sharkymcwrath]

Brian Hartline just got cut by Miami. I know he's not what he used to be but he would fit in well on the Pats, especially if Amendola gets cut.

 

[NWPATSFAN]

OK...soVareen on Branch was cut by Oak...I love this guy!! He was one of the best S in the league. I know he has been hurt, but I would seriously pass on Harvin or Bush and try and get this guy for a few yrs. Ya know....that show you can still play deal. He has been hurt the past 2 yrs and would fit in nicely. NE could seriously have the best 2ndary in football: Revis, Browner, DMC, Branch....ya, I am liking that.

I agree on everything you said. Lock up the secondary. Sign Vareen. Stack the O/D lines with draft choices. Throw in a tall WR somewhere and I`d be a happy man.

 

[TxHeat]

OK...so Tvyon Branch was cut by Oak...I love this guy!! He was one of the best S in the league. I know he has been hurt, but I would seriously pass on Harvin or Bush and try and get this guy for a few yrs. Ya know....that show you can still play deal. He has been hurt the past 2 yrs and would fit in nicely. NE could seriously have the best 2ndary in football: Revis, Browner, DMC, Branch....ya, I am liking that.

I'm not familiar with Branch, probably because he played in Oakland, but I would never want to see Harvin and Bush wearing a Pats uniform. They don't deserve the privilege.

 

[BigKen]

Adam Shefter is reporting that Darrell Revis will not immediately resign with the New England Patriots and has informed the team that he would like to explore the Free Agent Market. What is unknown is whether or not the Patriots will just pick up his $20M option. He's not an automatic free agent.

It's also being reported that Steven Gostkowski will be given the Franchise Tag before the 4 o'clock deadline today.

My opinion .......
Revis may have made a mistake in trying to get out to see what he's worth. Belichick has most likely figured that might be his plan of action and will pick up the option. That could be a disaster for Revis should he get hurt. This could also be one of those conflicts that Revis has had in the past with the Jets where he'll sit out until he gets what he wants. The big difference is that Belichick is not Rex Ryan or Woody Johnson. Malcolm Butler my not be Darell Revis but he showed in the playoffs and the Super Bowl that he can play man to man. Think Belichick might trade him to the Jets??

Gostkowski getting tagged guarantees he'll get $4.5M in 2015. He'll probably sign a contract if he's tagged. If not, it gives the Patriots a year to make plans.

McCourty has pretty much said he'll resign with the Patriots. His brother tried to talk him into at least talking with the Titans but Devin said the Patriots will be back challenging for the Super Bowl and he wants another ring.

 

[CreepCreep2014]

Adam Shefter is reporting that Darrell Revis will not immediately resign with the New England Patriots and has informed the team that he would like to explore the Free Agent Market. What is unknown is whether or not the Patriots will just pick up his $20M option. He's not an automatic free agent.

It's also being reported that Steven Gostkowski will be given the Franchise Tag before the 4 o'clock deadline today.

My opinion .......
Revis may have made a mistake in trying to get out to see what he's worth. Belichick has most likely figured that might be his plan of action and will pick up the option. That could be a disaster for Revis should he get hurt. This could also be one of those conflicts that Revis has had in the past with the Jets where he'll sit out until he gets what he wants. The big difference is that Belichick is not Rex Ryan or Woody Johnson. Malcolm Butler my not be Darell Revis but he showed in the playoffs and the Super Bowl that he can play man to man. Think Belichick might trade him to the Jets??

Gostkowski getting tagged guarantees he'll get $4.5M in 2015. He'll probably sign a contract if he's tagged. If not, it gives the Patriots a year to make plans.

McCourty has pretty much said he'll resign with the Patriots. His brother tried to talk him into at least talking with the Titans but Devin said the Patriots will be back challenging for the Super Bowl and he wants another ring.

I thought it was if NE does not come up with a new contract and does not pick up the option, they will let him test FA. I have not heard Revis say this to NE. I don't think he would, or at least hope not. IDK. Going to be a fun ride. Just sit back Patriot fans, we know how the off seasons go around here!

 

[BigKen]

This was posted in another thread in the Washington Redskins board. Thought it might interest a few of you...

A+
Ndamukong Suh, DT, Detroit
A
Randall Cobb, WR, Green Bay(resigned with Packers 4 yrs/$40M)
DeMarco Murray, RB, Dallas
A-
Jerry Hughes, DE, Buffalo
Terrance Knighton, DT, Denver
Devin McCourty, S, New England
Jared Odrick, DT, Miami
Jeremy Maclin, WR, Philadelphia
Pernell McPhee, OLB, Baltimore
B+
Mike Iupati, G, San Francisco
George Johnson, DE, Detroit
Denarius Moore, WR, Oakland
Torrey Smith, WR, Baltimore
Tramon Williams, CB, Green Bay
B
Akeem Ayers, OLB, New England
Bryan Bulaga, OT, Green Bay
Michael Crabtree, WR, San Francisco
Brandon Flowers, CB, San Diego
Justin Forsett, RB, Baltimore
Mark Ingram, RB, New Orleans
John Kuhn, FB, Green Bay
Ryan Matthews, RB, San Diego
Rolando McClain, ILB, Dallas
Julius Thomas, TE, Denver
Justin Tucker, K, Baltimore
Shane Vereen, RB, New England
B-
Jordan Cameron, TE, Cleveland
Frank Gore, RB, San Francisco
Greg Hardy, DE, Carolina
C+
Kenny Britt, WR, Tennessee
Antonio Cromartie, CB, Arizona
Byron Maxwell, CB, Seattle
CJ Mosley, DT, Detroit

 

[Southieinnc]

This was posted in another thread in the Washington Redskins board. Thought it might interest a few of you...

A+
Ndamukong Suh, DT, Detroit
A
Randall Cobb, WR, Green Bay(resigned with Packers 4 yrs/$40M)
DeMarco Murray, RB, Dallas
A-
Jerry Hughes, DE, Buffalo
Terrance Knighton, DT, Denver
Devin McCourty, S, New England
Jared Odrick, DT, Miami
Jeremy Maclin, WR, Philadelphia
Pernell McPhee, OLB, Baltimore
B+
Mike Iupati, G, San Francisco
George Johnson, DE, Detroit
Denarius Moore, WR, Oakland
Torrey Smith, WR, Baltimore
Tramon Williams, CB, Green Bay
B
Akeem Ayers, OLB, New England
Bryan Bulaga, OT, Green Bay
Michael Crabtree, WR, San Francisco
Brandon Flowers, CB, San Diego
Justin Forsett, RB, Baltimore
Mark Ingram, RB, New Orleans
John Kuhn, FB, Green Bay
Ryan Matthews, RB, San Diego
Rolando McClain, ILB, Dallas
Julius Thomas, TE, Denver
Justin Tucker, K, Baltimore
Shane Vereen, RB, New England
B-
Jordan Cameron, TE, Cleveland
Frank Gore, RB, San Francisco
Greg Hardy, DE, Carolina
C+
Kenny Britt, WR, Tennessee
Antonio Cromartie, CB, Arizona
Byron Maxwell, CB, Seattle
CJ Mosley, DT, Detroit

Can you elaborate, please? I don't know what I'm looking at.....

 

[cdumler7]

Can you elaborate, please? I don't know what I'm looking at.....

I think it is a list of all the top FA's and just based on talent alone what they grade out in the NFL. So Suh being possibly a top-5 player in the entire game gets an A+. Then you just keep going down the list.

That wouldn't quite be the order I would put them in but looks like a decent list.

 

[BigKen]

Thanks CD, been out taking the wife shopping all day. She's heading to Florida for a week..................

without me.............8^)

 

[cdumler7]

Thanks CD, been out taking the wife shopping all day. She's heading to Florida for a week..................

without me.............8^)

Nice! My wife has been gone for the week as her family wanted to throw her and the baby a baby shower so I have had the house to myself. Had the great excuse of having to work in order to not have to sit through a stinking baby shower.

 

[BigKen]

Reggie Bush just tweeted that he's considering three teams.

The Patriots are one of the three.