2014 Pirates

[Illinest]

I'm not interested in reading another tim williams column. He has worn out his welcome.
He acts like he discovered polanco, but he's not even the first fan to write about him (Wilbur Miller btw) let alone the scout who signed him.
His points are terrible too - which is what happens when you're shilling this hard.

First of all - the money spent is already banked. Everybody says "i'd rather not spend just to spend" as justification for failing to address the starting pitching situation, but then when the budgeted money is available and could help us win some games there's always a new excuse.
In the end the message is clear. Nutting can be cheap and dishonest and you're okay with it.
Rather than "48 million" - or whatever ridiculous figure Tim suggested (and that might be a figure from his twitter rather than the article - i forget which...) the cost is a flat 12-15 million which will be spread across the length of Polanco's time with the Pirates. Tim uses a big number to make it seem scary, because it doesn't suit his agenda as well if he admits that it's the same thing as saying we'd have 2.3 million dollars less to spend annually from now until 2020.

He also disguises the true cost of not having polanco in the lineup by intimating that it's "just a couple weeks" - when it's actually a third of the regular season. He also blames grilli for lost games that may not have even been save opportunities if we'd scored another run early in the game. This argument that Tim is making is absolute bullshit, and bordering on dishonest.

 

[thedddd]

Ishikawa wasn't a FA long. He signed with the Giants.

 

[element1286]

.296 team OBP, last year was .313, not acceptable. Too many below replacement level performances from guys who are legit MLB players too. Very disturbing.

 

[thecrow124]

.296 team OBP, last year was .313, not acceptable. Too many below replacement level performances from guys who are legit MLB players too. Very disturbing.

I have grown to be okay with Hurdle as a manager, sure he has mental lapses here and there, but what manager doesn't? However, the constant changing of the line-up has to stop. Put people in a spot and give them a month to work out their jobs in that spot and then tweak, but don't change the order every day.

I won't go so far as to say Polanco is going to fix everything, but having him hit second and Walker fourth would make this a much better line-up. However, until the point that Polanco is up, Walker should be hitting second.

As for the left side of the field, I expect Mercer and Marte to be better, but I have no delusions that Pedro will be any better than he has been to this point in the season.

 

[element1286]

Yeah, Polanco won't be a cure all, but it would be nice to have him here now. Assuming he would hit remotely close to his AAA numbers.

Not sure I get the confidence in Mercer and Marte, especially Mercer, and not Pedro. Pedro has the longest track record by far of being an above average hitter in this league. I know you personally don't like him crow, but that isn't a good reason.

 

[sychmd]

polanco will help and is it too much to bat him 3rd.

i think polanco should be 3rd if he can handle it. If that is too much pressure, then let him leadoff.
then let marte bat second (he will see a lot more fastballs i would assume).

alvarez will show some life in may as he is a slow starter.

polanco
marte
cutch
alvarez
walker
martin/sanchez
davis/gabby
mercer/barmes

would be interesting to see:
cutch
walker
polanco
davis/gabby
martin/sanchez
alvarez - then when he starts hitting move to 5 or 4
marte - move him to 2 if he starts hitting and can get a 330-350 OBP
mercer

i still feel, as i said from the winter on, that this is not our year to really contend. didn't think we would be this bad, but not enough matured pieces yet.
we need to find out what the players we are counting on can actually do and give them time to show us.
cutch, polanco, marte, cole, melancon, morris, watson, wilson are definites for the future.
alvarez, walker, mercer, are good starters that are probably supporting cast and not carry the load players.
altho alvarez boarders into the first tier.
tony sanchez(or mcguire), morton, locke, cumpton, hughes, need to prove themselves to be ongoing average players.

we are hoping taillon, pimentel, hanson, kingham, glasnow can be above average to all-star caliber type players.

the glaring hole is 1B. does ike davis come around, lambo, or josh bell or FA.

but this is the year to find out so we can really have a good foundation in 15 and be ready to win it all in 16.
losing taillon for the year sets him back one year, but does give one or two of the other guys a chance to shine to be part of our future or good trade bait for the future 1B or C (if we need something before Mcguire)

 

[Darkstone42]

When Polanco comes up, I bat him leadoff right away. He's got great patience and works a lot of walks, has a good contact skill, and has speed. If he develops as expected, he's basically a perfect leadoff hitter.

Marte should bat down in the order to take some pressure off him until he figures it out, but he's worth keeping in the lineup for his glove and baserunning alone in the interim.

Polanco
McCutchen
Walker
Alvarez
Sanchez/Davis
Martin
Marte
Mercer

When Marte starts hitting, I would just swap him and Walker.

 

[thecrow124]

Yeah, Polanco won't be a cure all, but it would be nice to have him here now. Assuming he would hit remotely close to his AAA numbers.

Nisot sure I get the confidence in Mercer and Marte, especially Mercer, and not Pedro. Pedro has the longest track record by far of being an above average hitter in this league. I know you personally don't like him crow, but that isn't a good reason.

I wouldn't say that I have confidence in Mercer or Marte, I just think they have more ability to improve their current offensive numbers than Pedro. I personally don't understand how so many people on this board continue to consider Pedro Alvarez a productive baseball player. At best he is below average with short stretches of being All Star caliber. Almost all of his production comes in these short stretches, but for the better part of most seasons, he should not see a major league baseball field. This is far beyond my dislike for Pedro, this is simply the facts, Pedro is not very good, I don't care about his WAR, or his OPS, this is the simple eyeball test, and Pedro fails it.

However, of the three, Mercer does have the shortest track record, however, he has also been the most consistent in his patterns throughout his professional career. But you are correct, Pedro has more of a pattern at the major league level. I just personally would not call it an "above average hitter" track.

 

[element1286]

So he gets there is a strange, maddening way, still doesn't change the fact that at the end of the year when we tally everything up he rates out as solidly above average.

 

[thecrow124]

So he gets there is a strange, maddening way, still doesn't change the fact that at the end of the year when we tally everything up he rates out as solidly above average.

However, for 75% of the season he plays not just below average, but well below, with stretches where he looks like he should not be on a major league roster. That is one of the flaws of blindly looking at WAR, and taking it as a grading tool. I understand what it is for, and what it represents, but it isn't perfect, and in some cases seems more broken than accurate. I am not saying that Pedro falls into that particular group, however, if you can go on a 2 week stretch 2-3 times a year and be bad the rest of the time and still grade out as above average, something is broken.

 

[thecrow124]

I realize a lot of people no longer consider him a prospect, or after his 30 AB audition last season, a viable major league baseball player, but Andrew Lambo is not hitting .356 with an OPS over 1.000 with Indy. He has 13 doubles, and 2 HR. His only visible weaknesses this season seem to be playing on the road and hitting behind in the count. He is destroying lefty's with an OPS over 1.100.

I will say again, I do not think he is a star, and is likely to not even be very good, but I am at the point where I see no reason to not put him in RF in Pittsburgh for the next 40 games until Polanco is "ready". Basically give him a 150 AB audition to see if he can hit at the major league level. The few certainties in this situation, Tabata and Snider can't hit, and Davis is pretty much in the same boat. If Lambo can hit, then when Polanco comes up, shift Lambo to first and let him play there u til he is comfortable. Personally I think the switch from OF to first had an affect on him that he just didn't want to admit.

 

[sychmd]

I realize a lot of people no longer consider him a prospect, or after his 30 AB audition last season, a viable major league baseball player, but Andrew Lambo is not hitting .356 with an OPS over 1.000 with Indy. He has 13 doubles, and 2 HR. His only visible weaknesses this season seem to be playing on the road and hitting behind in the count. He is destroying lefty's with an OPS over 1.100.

I will say again, I do not think he is a star, and is likely to not even be very good, but I am at the point where I see no reason to not put him in RF in Pittsburgh for the next 40 games until Polanco is "ready". Basically give him a 150 AB audition to see if he can hit at the major league level. The few certainties in this situation, Tabata and Snider can't hit, and Davis is pretty much in the same boat. If Lambo can hit, then when Polanco comes up, shift Lambo to first and let him play there u til he is comfortable. Personally I think the switch from OF to first had an affect on him that he just didn't want to admit.

i agree,
snider and tabata will have occasional spurts, but are just nice bench players.
lamb certainly has potential to be more.
he choked a bit in spring training but is crushing it now and did last year.
nobody is blocking him now in RF. play him now, he can't be much worse than what we have now.
if he plays well, then he can be viable trade bait at the deadline or move to 1B if davis isn't hitting.

you also need to show your minor league players that if they perform well they will get a chance. by keeping him down with hs numbers and no one ahead of him gets discouraging to others in the system. not good.

 

[sychmd]

can sanchez throw,
that is twice he has blown a strikeout and led to a bad inning,
also had terrible throws to 2B.
how can a catcher not be able to throw accurately when he is 25 and catching all his life.

how soon till mcgure can be ready. is 2016 too early to predict. A ball in 2014, AA-AAA in 2015, and AAA-MLB in 2016. Sanchez seems to have a decent bat, but seems to be destined for DH a la doumit.

 

[WVUinVegas]

We stink again

 

[sychmd]

why do our pitchers seem to be not throwing as hard as they did last year.
are they not stretched out yet.

i watch on game day on mlb and it shows the velocity, but cole, melancon, grilli, pimentel, and especially wilson aren't bringing it like last year.

morris and morton seem to be.

wandy is way down as we've mentioned.
not sure what volquez's baseline was last year.

any thoughts or reasons other than the cold and rainy weather conditions.

 

[element1286]

Spot checked the pitchfx; Wilson and Cole are pretty much dead on from last year, Grilli and Melancon are both down about 1mph on their fastballs.

 

[sychmd]

Spot checked the pitchfx; Wilson and Cole are pretty much dead on from last year, Grilli and Melancon are both down about 1mph on their fastballs.

thanks,
cole was consistently higher today and later in the game as well.

wilson used to hit 97-99 regularly last year with a rare 100.
not so much this year and the results show it.

 

[sychmd]

Our May hitting stats are off the charts for BA, OBP, and OPS.

the exception is pedro's OPS and
the black hole of RF.

 

[element1286]

18-25, not completely out of it, but the run differential (-18) is becoming a concern and doesn't bode well for the rest of the season.

 

[thecrow124]

Theoretically we have an easy schedule in June. However, the way we have been playing, nothing will come easy. If we can't make it to above .500 by the end of June, we should start looking to sell.

The problem with selling this year is that some of the guys that would actually draw interest are players we might possibly look to bring back next year. Examples would be Liriano and Russell Martin. Don't get me wrong, I still think Sanchez will provide more value than Martin, but I don't believe the management team feels the same.

However, that is neither here nor there, if the team starts winning, the entire scenario becomes moot.

A couple observations, I think Josh Harrison should play RF until Polanco comes up. Mercer is starting to hit finally. Lastly, the start to this season is no different from a stat perspective from the last 3 years, except for the fact that we have lost more games.