2014 Pirates

[sychmd]

The starting pitching is what worries me most. I never wanted wandy and volquez in the same rotation. Wandy's velocity is just the first problem. Then you've got a season-ending injury to Taillon and that's problem #2. Morton, Cole and Liriano haven't exactyl aced it up so far. Not to suggest that i'm unhappy with any of them, but none of the trio is pitching like an ace so far.
Locke and Cumpton won't help. They may be able to outperform Wandy right now, but we need more help than that. Kingham is the only guy left who seems to have the upside that we need. I really hope Kingham can help us.

that is why i have been pointing to 2016 as the year where we can really compete for a WS.
we just don't have enough horses to keep it up and play one run games for 160 games.
it just wears on a team.
look at milwaukee. their pitchers have a great ERA and it is easier when you are pitching with a lead much of the time.
we need more offense to take the pressure off out SP and BP.
we need a lineup that puts pressure on the pitcher all the way thru and we play good situational offense. jump out to some early leads.
then we get guys that can consistently throw strikes and go deep into games be pitching in the 7th and 8th regularly. not throwing 90 pitches at 5 1/3 innings.
then we have a chance to go deep. otherwise we are stressing and wearing down and not able do the little things that are necessary when the other team has quality and doesn't give away at bats, or cheap runs.

taillon losing a year really hurts and even holmes missing a year is an impact.
we need all these young studs - cole, taillon, pimentel, kingham, glasnow, heredia, to shine and add on cumpton, sadler, locke, morton, as depth

that is why i advocated dumping burnett (a .500 pitcher) to give pimentel and taillon and even cumpton a chance to audition this year. we need to see who is really in for 2016-2020 when our window with cutch, marte, polanco, alvarez, Hanson, bell(1B) and Sanchez/Mcguire, are available. over pay or trade or sign a 2B FA who fills out our lineup and we are ready as long as the players are injury free and have a realistic level of improvement the next couple years.

 

[Illinest]

Dump volquez and wandy if you need to dump someone. We needed burnett this year.
With marte and mcc in the of, alvarez, walker, martin, and tony sanchez in the IF there was no reason to think that we couldn't put together a good offense now. Fuck 2016. We should be scoring runs now.

Polanco will save a year of service time with one more week in the minors. Maybe he's a super 2 if you call him up on the 21st, but that shouldn't prevent him from joining the big league club.
We could've done a hundred different things to address 1B but we didn't. SS doesn't need to be an offensive powerhouse. There. Done. Good lineup from start to finish.

1. Marte
2. Polanco
3. McCutchen
4. Alvarez
5. Abreu
6, Walker
7. Martin

If the team had the balls for it, Jose Abreu was available and would've been a perfect fit for the team and the lineup in every way. There was some risk involved but look at that lineup. Why the hell should we wait for 2016? We could lose every prospect to tommy john between now and then. The iron is hot now. Strike strike strike.

 

[sychmd]

Dump volquez and wandy if you need to dump someone. We needed burnett this year.
With marte and mcc in the of, alvarez, walker, martin, and tony sanchez in the IF there was no reason to think that we couldn't put together a good offense now. Fuck 2016. We should be scoring runs now.

Polanco will save a year of service time with one more week in the minors. Maybe he's a super 2 if you call him up on the 21st, but that shouldn't prevent him from joining the big league club.
We could've done a hundred different things to address 1B but we didn't. SS doesn't need to be an offensive powerhouse. There. Done. Good lineup from start to finish.

1. Marte
2. Polanco
3. McCutchen
4. Alvarez
5. Abreu
6, Walker
7. Martin

If the team had the balls for it, Jose Abreu was available and would've been a perfect fit for the team and the lineup in every way. There was some risk involved but look at that lineup. Why the hell should we wait for 2016? We could lose every prospect to tommy john between now and then. The iron is hot now. Strike strike strike.

great though but cutch is the only tested star in that lineup. pedro had a good year and great playoff and maybe he could be the other star.
i agree the should have pursued abreu more since we have no one in the system to play 1st.
marte is a couple years away and martin and walker are roll players.
polanco will come up and be a complementary player for 1-2 years like marte before he might be that second star with cutch. that lineup is still 2 years away as well.

we differ on aj. he isn't worth it. would rather spend it on abreu. aj is a .500 pitcher and we can get that for 480k as well as build for the future. sure we can vie for a wildcard this year and next, but too many pieces away from being a serious contender.

 

[Illinest]

Marte has been here since 2012.

I already have no idea why you decided to champion wins and losses. It goes against all common sense and the consensus opinion of just about every person who has an opinion on the matter.
Now you're claiming that a player with 800 major league appearances is "a couple years away".

You've got to be fucking with me.
Are you an intern for the Pirates or something? There's got to be a reason for this. Some kind of agenda...
Is your name Frank? Are you Frank Coonelly?

 

[sychmd]

Marte has been here since 2012.

I already have no idea why you decided to champion wins and losses. It goes against all common sense and the consensus opinion of just about every person who has an opinion on the matter.
Now you're claiming that a player with 800 major league appearances is "a couple years away".

You've got to be fucking with me.
Are you an intern for the Pirates or something? There's got to be a reason for this. Some kind of agenda...
Is your name Frank? Are you Frank Coonelly?

marte came up in halfway in 2012, got hurt, struggled.
last year he got hurt again.
800 appearances, do you mean AB or games. prior to 2014 he only had 182 games.
Do you think he has peaked? I surely don't. How many players peak after 182 games. have you ever played the game, and advanced up against some competition at the next level and needed some time to adjust.
by your point, everyone would hit their peak at 180 games and it would be downhill afterward.
shouldn't they make the highest then and get lesser salaries after year 2. seems like most of the league thinks different about when players peak.
trout came up earlier than marte did, but i would think trout will still improve.

wind and losses, in the end is what determines the WS champion.
they do not give the trophy based on any other statistic or criteria.
we have found other analytics and metrics that help us have a higher probability of predicting who and what will have a better chance of producing wins, but minimally do those analytics get into the head of the pitcher or athlete.

the game is 90% mental, but that is what saber metrics does the least to evaluate. sure they are getting better. late innings and less than 2 runs, free throws in the last 2 minutes with score +/- 5 points.
But i haven't seen a stat on runs allowed after an error when a pitcher is a little frazzled or irritated.

My idol growing up was Nolan Ryan. He was the classic all world talent, but no mental in game toughness to win close games. pitched good enough to lose. great stats, but most often came up short. that is where i got interested at the intangibles, the mental aspects.

no need to swear or berate. what can't you have an appropriate conversation and share relevant information instead of having what appears to be a tantrum. it's only a game, and a message board and people's opinions.

 

[Darkstone42]

Alvarez's numbers haven't caught up yet, but even in this slump, I think this is the best he's looked. The K rate is still down, the walk rate is still up (and twice he's been wrung up looking in full counts on pitches off the plate, so that could be even better pending umpire decisions), and even though the average is pretty abysmal, he's been hitting the ball pretty well, just getting no luck (a .135 BABIP is probably a bit low), and he's got an OBP in excess of 100 points higher than his average, which is often a good sign.

According to wOBA and wRC+, he's actually been above average offensively despite an average below the Mendoza line.

I'm also impressed that he has 5 home runs to left or center. The manifestation of this opposite field power is a great sign.

 

[sychmd]

Alvarez's numbers haven't caught up yet, but even in this slump, I think this is the best he's looked. The K rate is still down, the walk rate is still up (and twice he's been wrung up looking in full counts on pitches off the plate, so that could be even better pending umpire decisions), and even though the average is pretty abysmal, he's been hitting the ball pretty well, just getting no luck (a .135 BABIP is probably a bit low), and he's got an OBP in excess of 100 points higher than his average, which is often a good sign.

According to wOBA and wRC+, he's actually been above average offensively despite an average below the Mendoza line.

I'm also impressed that he has 5 home runs to left or center. The manifestation of this opposite field power is a great sign.

i agree totally.
can't believe the calls he is getting. as HR champ, you would think he would start getting some calls, but close ones are more often against him.

he has never been a quick starter, being slow in apr and may, so excited to see this strategy he has and hope he can stick with it even though the average is low for the reasons you cited.

 

[thecrow124]

Alvarez's numbers haven't caught up yet, but even in this slump, I think this is the best he's looked. The K rate is still down, the walk rate is still up (and twice he's been wrung up looking in full counts on pitches off the plate, so that could be even better pending umpire decisions), and even though the average is pretty abysmal, he's been hitting the ball pretty well, just getting no luck (a .135 BABIP is probably a bit low), and he's got an OBP in excess of 100 points higher than his average, which is often a good sign.

According to wOBA and wRC+, he's actually been above average offensively despite an average below the Mendoza line.

I'm also impressed that he has 5 home runs to left or center. The manifestation of this opposite field power is a great sign.

When you put other factors into this power opposite field context, the BABIP doesn't seem too unreasonably low. Granted, it will go up or Pedro's career is essentially over, but everything he hits he is hitting in the air. His ISO is .322, which is .082 higher than last year, and this number is almost 100% a result of homeruns.

To me, he is going to the plate with the sole purpose of hitting a homerun. If he were going to the plate with the purpose of putting the bat on the ball and hitting the ball in fair territory, I could see a reason to believe that his BABIP could rise a lot. However, when the defense can pretty much set up in one spot and have a better than average chance of getting him out, I see little reason for optimism.

My personal opinion, pitchers are throwing him low and away because that is the hardest pitch to hit for power. That would explain the increase in walks and the subsequent drop in K's. It would also explain the opposite field power because if the pitcher misses up or over the plate that pitch location becomes very easy to hit. I also would not expect pitchers to change this approach, so this may well be the Pedro we get, a .300 OBP , .500 slugging guy, unless he decides at some point that it is ok to hit the ball on the ground through the left side.

All this is said with the caveat that I do not nor have I ever liked Pedro Alvarez as a baseball player. I still feel that we should trade him at the earliest opportunity. I am also not a big believer that you need "that one guy that pitchers are scared of his power".

 

[sychmd]

interesting take, crow.

what is interesting is his going to the opposite field, hitting the ball on the nose many times, some have been line outs.
pitchers pitched him the same last year as this, the difference was that he chased more pitches out of the zone and pitchers didn't have to throw many pitches to him.
he is seeing the ball better it seems, and laying off pitches more.

Even with the opposite field power and line outs, he still has a pull the ball swing. so before he rolls his wrists he will hit in the air and as he rolls his wrists and comes through the zone, he hits on the ground.

Also, the couple games i have seen, he has a lost at least 3 hits on balls lined up the middle and fought by someone right behind 2nd or fielded on one hop.
they seem to be shifting on him much more this year, and he is losing some hits that he would have had last year.
take away 4 K's that were very marginal calls, and give him those 4 hits and he is at .273 with OBP 429 with at least 6 HR and 16 RBI.

not sure if the shift has gotten him any hits to the left side. if so, maybe 1 unless i am missing something.

he seems to have adjusted and is a thinking player. i am predicting he has not plateaued and is still evolving.

as a point, he is a good baserunner, rarely gets thrown out at any base, and was safe on the steal last nite, thus he should have 3 SB this year.

 

[Darkstone42]

When you put other factors into this power opposite field context, the BABIP doesn't seem too unreasonably low. Granted, it will go up or Pedro's career is essentially over, but everything he hits he is hitting in the air. His ISO is .322, which is .082 higher than last year, and this number is almost 100% a result of homeruns.

To me, he is going to the plate with the sole purpose of hitting a homerun. If he were going to the plate with the purpose of putting the bat on the ball and hitting the ball in fair territory, I could see a reason to believe that his BABIP could rise a lot. However, when the defense can pretty much set up in one spot and have a better than average chance of getting him out, I see little reason for optimism.

My personal opinion, pitchers are throwing him low and away because that is the hardest pitch to hit for power. That would explain the increase in walks and the subsequent drop in K's. It would also explain the opposite field power because if the pitcher misses up or over the plate that pitch location becomes very easy to hit. I also would not expect pitchers to change this approach, so this may well be the Pedro we get, a .300 OBP , .500 slugging guy, unless he decides at some point that it is ok to hit the ball on the ground through the left side.

All this is said with the caveat that I do not nor have I ever liked Pedro Alvarez as a baseball player. I still feel that we should trade him at the earliest opportunity. I am also not a big believer that you need "that one guy that pitchers are scared of his power".

I see what your saying, but I also think his opposite field approach is largely what has led to him hitting more fly balls this year. When you go the other way, especially on outside pitches, you are a lot more likely to hit the ball in the air. League wide, only about 6.5% of outside pitches are hit on the ground the other way. From this, we can reason that pitchers pitching Pedro outside almost exclusively, and Pedro hitting the ball to the opposite field on most of those pitches should lead to fewer balls on the ground.

Pedro does have a loft on his swing, though, which means most of those not-ground-balls will also be fly balls.

If he keeps hitting the ball hard the other way, be it over the fence or otherwise, pitchers will have to work him on both sides of the plate more often. Inside pitches are more likely to be hit low, ground balls and line drives, especially to the pull side.

As long as Pedro is committed to going the other way, sitting back and staying inside the ball, I think we'll continue to see a lower ground ball rate and higher fly ball rate from him, and whatever that translates to in terms of batting average, home runs, etc., but we'll also see fewer strikeouts and GIDP and more walks.

 

[Darkstone42]

Another thing to note is that he is swinging at fewer pitches outside the zone (27.4% this year compared to a career 33.1% value), and fewer pitches in general (41.8% this year compared to a career 46.8% value). His contact rate has stayed about the same, but he's been considerably more selective about which pitches he tries to hit, which ultimately could lead to an overall improved quality of contact from him. I think he's still adjusting to the opposite field and patience approach, but if he can make that adjustment and get his LD% up to about career norms while continuing to take away ground balls in favor of fly balls, he should be a pretty good hitter going forward.

 

[element1286]

Another thing to note is that he is swinging at fewer pitches outside the zone (27.4% this year compared to a career 33.1% value), and fewer pitches in general (41.8% this year compared to a career 46.8% value). His contact rate has stayed about the same, but he's been considerably more selective about which pitches he tries to hit, which ultimately could lead to an overall improved quality of contact from him. I think he's still adjusting to the opposite field and patience approach, but if he can make that adjustment and get his LD% up to about career norms while continuing to take away ground balls in favor of fly balls, he should be a pretty good hitter going forward.

That's interesting.

Also, I hear what you are saying Crow, but .125BABIP is absurdly low, if it was .225 I'd probably go along more with your thinking. Although assuming he hits more flyballs, it's more likely we regress to .250 than his career number of .293.

 

[sychmd]

i don't see a lot of games, but it seems last year, they occasionally shifted on pedro, but this year it seems every AB the shift is on.

not sure how teams work the shift with men on base and hopefully batting behind a hot cutch being on base and batting 4th will lessen the amount of shifting teams do against him.

 

[element1286]

Making a Pitcher Out of Edinson Volquez | FanGraphs Baseball

Good Volquez article.

 

[Illinest]

The story of searage is still open. I'd like to believe that he does have a special talent for polishing guys up.

 

[sychmd]

OK, wandy is on DL.
Hughes is up.
Don't need a starter till thursday.
Hopefully that means that stolmy is in the rotation, but he isn't stretched out.
could be just holding a spot for cumpton to pitch on thursday (wilk would be the one scheduled to pitch at Indy on thursday).
i believe locke pitches today so won't be available on thursday unless they only have him go a BP session and start on thursday for bucs.

I hope pimentel gets a chance to start 10 games to see what he has.

 

[element1286]

I bet Stolmy can go 60-70 pitches. Although with his walk numbers that might only get you 4 innings. Make sure another long man is ready for that game.

 

[Johnnydollaz89]

Ike Davis so happy for him

 

[Illinest]

With positive developments from Neil Walker and Pedro Alvarez and the acquisition of an actual platoon partner for Gaby, it's time to turn our attention to RF.

Polanco rights have been retained now. He would probably be a super 2 and therefore have to be paid the arbitration rate for one season instead of the pre-arb rookie salary. Probably the difference between a million dollars and 13-17 million dollars, so it is not a negligible expense.

On the other hand that expense is not money spent for no reason at all. You would gain 2 months of polanco that you wouldn't otherwise have. It would give him an opportunity to settle in at the major-league level and perhaps compete for a rookie of the year award. You could also easily find yourself slipping out of the playoff race if you wait 2 more months.

So by committing to spend an extra 12-15 million dollars you gain 2 extra months of Polanco and you put yourself in a better position to compete for a playoff spot.

If the Pirates were a cellar-dwelling team you can be sure that even I wouldn't be calling for his promotion - but the Pirates could really use another good outfielder right now. I also happen to have good reason to believe that the front office had 12 to 15 million dollars available in the budget that wasn't spent. The money spent paying Polanco would be the money that had been set aside for whatever offer they made to AJ Burnett.


As for the starting pitching situation. Starting to get a little ugly already. Taillon is already injured and Wandy is both shitty AND on the disabled list. Liriano hasn't been as effective as in '13 and his velocity is down slightly.
We're already talking about pimentel and cumpton as spot starters, so it's possible that we're about to be in trouble. If Volquez's early results are just a temporary thing then we could be in big doo-doo really soon.

 

[element1286]

Well, I wouldn't bring up Polanco for the reasons stated, and the fact the Pirates really aren't hurting runs. The pitching is really the problem right now.

And really, the long ball has been both a savior and killer. The Pirates lead the majors in HR/FB rate against, 15.7% (9.8% last year), which doesn't seem sustainable. And then they are top 5 in HR/FB rate for, 14.3% (12.7% last year), which doesn't seem sustainable either but closer to reality than the pitching number.