2014 Pirates

[sychmd]

building on a successful playoff run, what's up next year.
2014 will be the first in maybe 20 years that bringing in a stud pitcher isnt a necessity.

we actually have too many pitchers. so what happens.
1. liriano, 2. cole, 3. morton, 4. wandy
5. locke, cumpton, McP (if back), pimentel, taillon (later in june hopefully)

do we bring back burnett, and for how much.

remember going into this year we thought we had a lot of pitching and ended up going a lot deeper than we thought we would have to go. sanchez, karstens, mcP, locke, and cole were fighting it out for #5 behind burnett, wandy, mcdonald, liriano.

i see wandy fading (altho is a nice LHP for the rotation) and locke as iffy.

morton (fully recovered from injury) and cole (now he gets it) will be better next year.
liriano will regress slightly but not much but we will have him a full year and still have some dominating games.
i like cumpton and pimentel with taillon hopefully doing a cole imitation next year.
nervous about locke, and mcP will need a several more months in the year to rehab but will be interesting.

so do we sign burnett and how much.

do we package some of the BP guys and AAA/AA depth pitchers to a pitching strapped team for a 1B guy.
we have so much pitching but morneau isnt the answer. BB but not hitting at all. bat looks slow and body getting in his way. cant really hit any heat anymore its seems.

 

[thecrow124]

I think we will bring back AJ, he means more to this team than just his pitching, probably around $8-10 million, possibly try to get him for 2 more for something in the $16-18 million range.

As for first base, tell Marlon Byrd to purchase a new glove and stand him over there, can't be as bad as Jones defensively and provides more offense. Hopefully he would come back on a 1 year deal in the $5-6 million range, although that isn't likely. In all honesty, I think the Pirates are sending Lambo to winter ball to teach him firstbase, and it will be his job to lose.

Wandy will be back, Cole, Morton and after that it is up in the air. That is why it is important to bring back AJ. I am still an advocate for putting Wilson back into the rotation, but I am also pretty sure that that boat has sailed. Irwin should be ready and McPherson by July or August, Taillon could be ready in June, but could also be ready at the beginning of the year.

Lastly Jose Abreu has been declared a FA by MLB. I am all for signing him to be our firstbaseman for the future.

 

[psaboy]

Don't Bucs need to sign Liriano? Thought he was just a 1 year deal this year?

What about Pedro, when is his contract up?

 

[thedddd]

Don't Bucs need to sign Liriano? Thought he was just a 1 year deal this year?

What about Pedro, when is his contract up?

Pedro has a team option of $700,000 and is arbitration eligible in '14.

Liriano signed a 2 year deal and is under contract for 6 million (pretty much a steal for what he did this year!)

 

[Illinest]

I'm okay with Morton in the rotation, but I consider him a #4.
Liriano is a #2 type. Cole is a #3 right now but he's starting to show his inner ace.

Locke is the one who bugs me. He's almost certainly injured imo. I think that this is just another example of the young pitcher who falls apart, then they find out that he has damage. My main worry is that he'll be healthy enough to start next season in the rotation, but only long enough to get shelled for a few weeks.

Most of the depth options are depth options until proven otherwise. Irwin, Cumpton, Pimentel, McPherson, Gomez and others are fine as sixth starters, and some may be worth more than that but I'm not holding my breath on any of them.

Wandy is going to exercise his option and he'll be back, but maybe not until later in the year and he might not be effective.


What I would like to see done is to set Liriano, Cole and Morton in the rotation. Consider Locke and Wandy as the 'fifth starter platoon' and that leaves us with a hole for a 2-3 starter. I would like it if Burnett is offered one more contract to try to bridge the gap to Taillon and Kingham.



As for the starting lineup, I am very excited about Polanco and I can deal with Tabata in RF in the meantime. I've never been a big fan of Tabata but I can't slight him when he's producing, and he has been producing for the last 2 months.
The only other change that I'd like to see would be to get a real 1B. Abreu is interesting and I'd be on board with that if the money isn't crazy large.

If the Pirates sign Burnett to a 1 year deal and land Abreu I would be extremely happy. Oh and I suppose we're going to need a defensive specialist to replace Barmes.

 

[thecrow124]

Pedro can opt out of his deal and go to arbitration this offseason, and will certainly do that because he will be awarded more than $700, 000.

I am good with bringing Barmes back as a backup MI.

I would rather try to get Byrd back at a reasonable rate than just give the job to Tabata. Polanco need at least one more complete season in the minors.

There are a lot of back of the rotation starters in our system, I would focus on bringing back AJ, than look to upgrade the back end through free agency.

 

[element1286]

Tabata and Lambo could be a decent platoon, IMO.

 

[sychmd]

tabata and lambo would be good 4/5 behind byrd if he had a reasonable price for yr.
it would be nice if lambo could play first and really replace jones, that would free up a lot of money.

a lot would be determined by knowing what polanco can do next year.
will he even play at the MLB level. i tend to agree with crow that polanco would be best served with AAA all year, or a little AA for 1-2 months, scorch it, then AAA till Sept.
but in ST, if he is lights out, goes to AAA and rakes, then comes in june like marte did his first year and platoons with tabata, who knows. unfortunately our decision on byrd needs to come over the winter, not in the spring. definitely not more than 2 years, and pay a little extra for a 1 yr contract.

sign the cuban 1B (is he R or L).

sign burnett for one year,
let barmes go and rotate walker, mercer, and harrison depending on RHP or LHP as our middle infielders till hansen, d'arnaud, dejesus pushes harrison for a spot.

mercer, walker, marte, tabata will all be better next year.
alvarez might not hit 36, but he will be around 30 with less K's, more BB, and slightly better ave.
sanchez will split more time with martin and we will get more O from C.

 

[ramburgh]

gone: Barmes, Buck, Burnett, Gomez, Jones, Karstens, Morneau, G. Sanchez. about $26M in salary paid by the Pirates.

25:
Martin, T. Sanchez
Jose Abreu or Kendrys Morales
Walker, Harrison
Mercer, d'Arnaud
Alvarez
Marte
McCutchen
Byrd, Tabata, Snider or Lambo

Liriano, Cole, Morton, Locke, Rodriguez (if not healthy then one of Cumpton, Irwin, McPherson)
Grilli, Melancon, Wilson, Watson, Morris, Mazzaro, Pimental

line-up:
Marte, Walker, McCutchen, Byrd, Abreu/Morales, Alvarez, Martin, Mercer

money will go to extend Alvarez and Walker, re-sign Byrd and bring in Abreu or Morales. Those 4 extensions/moves with cost the Pirates more than the $26M that they are shedding. There will also be some raises to the rest of the roster. That seems like a solid 25-man with Taillon and several others being added to the mix later in the summer. I don't see the Pirates bringing back AJ unless that increase payroll from this year to next by almost $20M. I think it will be closer to a $8-$12M increase.

possibly trading for a solid SP or bringing one in on an incentive laden contract. another possibility is to sell high on Grilli.

 

[element1286]

I'd be open to bringing Barmes back on a one year deal for a smaller paycheck. I like Gaby as well, solid bench bat/defensive replacement and first base is easy to find a platoon partner and make it work. I thought he was arb eligible anyway. Can't see him making that much.

 

[element1286]

Choo interests me if they can get him on a 3 year deal. Much rather have him in RF, than Byrd. And has a career .389 OBP, so he would be the leadoff hitter. You could use Lambo as a platoon partner with Sanchez at first base.

Or go with James Loney at first, platoon him with Gaby, and resign Bryd.

Or take a look to see what Corey Hart's medicals are like, and what kind of deal he wants. You'd be gambling, and losing defensive value, but he can hit for sure.

 

[thedddd]

I would like to see Choo also but what is interesting is how bad he is against left handed pitching in recently seasons.

His splits lifetime vs lefties aren't horrible but the last two years he regressed considerably but still I would like to see him more than Byrd long term.

 

[ramburgh]

Choo will want a multi-year deal and Byrd might sign a one-year deal. We need to go with the one-year deal because Polanco could be ready sooner than later plus one of the single A outfielders could move quickly. A few of them will probably see some time in AA in 2014 with a potential ML call-up in 2015.

 

[Illinest]

The Pirates listed payroll is 66, but that includes AJ's full salary. They were actually around 60 million prior to the pro-rated portions of Byrd and Morneau's contract. With Barmes, AJ, Jones and a number of others coming off the books (remember Jonathan Sanchez? Brandon Inge?) the Pirates are actually only on the hook for a little over 40 million in 2013.
The Brewers are at about 90. The Reds 110. The Cardinals 116.
I'm willing to punt on the 'better market' argument. The Pirates - let's just say they're the shittiest market. Still - with revenue from 3 home playoff games and the highest attendance figures in the history of the ballpark there's no reason I can think of why we shouldn't be able to spend up to our own limit which I would say is conservatively at least 80 million, but that's entirely based on this season's economics. In actuality all teams are expected to have new annual revenue from collective bargaining agreements that should total around 13 million per year.


I think that the Pirates should be able to handle long term contracts and/or arbitration awards for all of the players who've earned them and then still be able to add 30 to 35 million dollars per year on top of that.

We need a Starting Pitcher most of all. If AJ wants to come back I'm okay with that.
We need a bat. Don't care how. After Abreu the list should include guys like Morales, Napoli, Choo, Ramirez (transplanted to first if willing) and maybe Loney in the worst case.
We need a glove guy to backup Mercer or a legit starter to displace Mercer. No more Barmes please. If we must have a glove guy then Brenden Ryan.

I think AJ is worth 10-15 on a 1-year deal. I know a guy who knows a guy (which means a whole heck of a lot if you know what I mean) regardless - the story I've heard is that AJ wants to play in a city that's not too far from Baltimore and that he really likes Pittsburgh, and supposedly would seriously rather retire if he's not pitching here again.

I think that Abreu, Napoli and Choo are all worth pursuing and should all be in our price range - though I think that Choo will get more years and dollars than has been speculated upon in this thread.


Guys that I want no part of:
Jones - he's at an age where guys like him lose it.
Morneau - much better hitter but it must be mentioned - he's a lefty who did not hit a single homerun while with the Pirates. He's just not that good nowadays.
Byrd - I'm going out on a limb - I would not be willing to bet that he'd repeat this season again. I think he had a career year. I think he could very easily be a trap contract.
Barmes - when we acquired him the best that could be said about him was that the advanced metrics loved his defense. Well now the advanced metrics are saying he's lost a few steps. He's not the glove guy for us.

I would take Sanchez back as a right-handed bench bat.
I would allow Tabata to have the first shot in RF again.
I would allow Tony Sanchez to have his shot as the backup C.


But it's time to hold the Pirates accountable. We were given every excuse in the book in past years when we demanded justification for low payroll but the most prevalent excuse was the suggestion that "it's not time to spend money yet".
Well now it's time. It is time.

 

[thecrow124]

Tabata and Lambo could be a decent platoon, IMO.

They both have platoon splits that would have them playing against RHP's. Personally I think they will platoon Lambo with Sanchez at first, unless they can sign an everyday firstbaseman.

Honestly it is just way to early to try to speculate on what is going to happen next year, but I think that is what makes the guesswork here so much fun.

 

[steelparrot]

We know that MLB’s new national TV contracts with ESPN, Fox, and Turner will more than double the amount of money each team received from those three networks. Where the previous contract paid teams an average of $25.53 million each per year, next year’s contract will pay teams an average of $51.67 million per year. Having an additional $26 million on hand seems useful.

How MLB splits your TV dollars | May | 2013

They went further in detail, 2013 total tv revenue 50.21 million, 2014 est 78.76, the extra 3 mill comes from escalators in other teams tv deals that add to the revenue sharing pool. It looks like he did his homework, that is a 28.5 million dollar revenue jump for the Pirates and its the minimum jump for every team in MLB.


I havent looked at any free agent lists, but this offseason is going to be crazy based on the massive league wide revenue spike. Its a good year to resign your own players imho. I would try to resign Burnett and do something at first base(maybe Morneau), I dont think I would block Polanco with a free agent/ Byrd. If Taillon is ready and everyone is healthy we can trade Morton/Locke to open a spot for him.

 

[steelparrot]

Pittsburgh Pirates 2013-14 Off-Season Contract Situations | Pirates Prospects

options/ arbitration/free agent info on the 40 man roster

 

[element1286]

I'm ok with Byrd on a one year deal (or one year with team option), can't see giving him more than that, but I also can't see him accepting that without seeing the market. And if he gets to the market, he'll get more money.

 

[element1286]

Morales is interesting because the M's are expected to give him a qualifying offer, which means he could cost a pick to sign I believe.

 

[element1286]

They both have platoon splits that would have them playing against RHP's. Personally I think they will platoon Lambo with Sanchez at first, unless they can sign an everyday firstbaseman.

Honestly it is just way to early to try to speculate on what is going to happen next year, but I think that is what makes the guesswork here so much fun.

Not sure what you mean, Tabata is pretty close to standard platoon split for his career.