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With positive developments from Neil Walker and Pedro Alvarez and the acquisition of an actual platoon partner for Gaby, it's time to turn our attention to RF.

Polanco rights have been retained now. He would probably be a super 2 and therefore have to be paid the arbitration rate for one season instead of the pre-arb rookie salary. Probably the difference between a million dollars and 13-17 million dollars, so it is not a negligible expense.

On the other hand that expense is not money spent for no reason at all. You would gain 2 months of polanco that you wouldn't otherwise have. It would give him an opportunity to settle in at the major-league level and perhaps compete for a rookie of the year award. You could also easily find yourself slipping out of the playoff race if you wait 2 more months.

So by committing to spend an extra 12-15 million dollars you gain 2 extra months of Polanco and you put yourself in a better position to compete for a playoff spot.

If the Pirates were a cellar-dwelling team you can be sure that even I wouldn't be calling for his promotion - but the Pirates could really use another good outfielder right now. I also happen to have good reason to believe that the front office had 12 to 15 million dollars available in the budget that wasn't spent. The money spent paying Polanco would be the money that had been set aside for whatever offer they made to AJ Burnett.


As for the starting pitching situation. Starting to get a little ugly already. Taillon is already injured and Wandy is both shitty AND on the disabled list. Liriano hasn't been as effective as in '13 and his velocity is down slightly.
We're already talking about pimentel and cumpton as spot starters, so it's possible that we're about to be in trouble. If Volquez's early results are just a temporary thing then we could be in big doo-doo really soon.

I'm not terribly worried about Liriano, Morton, and Cole. I think they've all pitched better than their results. But Volquez is going to make me nervous for at least another month (though if he keeps the walks down like he has, he'll stay effective, I think), and we need a reliable fifth.

I would also be in favor of bringing up Polanco early, but largely because the Pirate front office has shown they can get long-term deals done early with their talented young outfielders. We may never even have to pay that extra money. Snider and Tabata have both been pretty good so far this season, though, and it would be tough to just eliminate their playing time altogether. Both are still useful, but do you really want to carry two backup outfielders who can't play anywhere else? One of them may find himself in a package for something, perhaps a pitcher or a short stop if Mercer continues to struggle.
 

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SS, C and 1B are our most pressing needs in 2015. Maybe not in that order.
 

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My guess is both Snider and Tabata are being shopped and as soon as one can be moved for a somewhat reasonable return, Polanco will be in the majors. Even though got off to a hot start, he still has not spent much time in AAA. It is not worth rushing him when Snider and Tabata are doing fine. Rushing him could make the extra arby year a moot point if it messes up his development.
 

element1286

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Well Gaby and Ike Davis are both under team control next year as their last year of arbitration.
 
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Well Gaby and Ike Davis are both under team control next year as their last year of arbitration.

With that in mind, I think if there's a good first baseman on the market next year, you take him, but you don't have to actively seek one out. The following year, though, we may need to very actively target one, either in free agency or a trade.

Depending on how Davis does for us this year, it may also be worth it to sign him to a short extension.
 

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I believe Ike has the '15 and '16 seasons for arbitration. I think this is his first year and Gaby's second year of arby.
 

element1286

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With that in mind, I think if there's a good first baseman on the market next year, you take him, but you don't have to actively seek one out. The following year, though, we may need to very actively target one, either in free agency or a trade.

Depending on how Davis does for us this year, it may also be worth it to sign him to a short extension.

Because I was curios, I ran some numbers using Gaby and Ike's career splits vs rhp and lhp making some assumptions it will be a strict platoon.

Ike 65% of starts, 85% of PA's vs RHPs and 15% vs LHPs, it comes out he will be worth about .8 WAR the rest of the year.

Gaby 35% of starts, 75% of PA's vs LHPs and 25% vs RHPs, it comes out he will be worth about .7 WAR the rest of the year.

Not great by any means, but serviceable.
 

element1286

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I believe Ike has the '15 and '16 seasons for arbitration. I think this is his first year and Gaby's second year of arby.

Piratesprospects had this as both their 2nd year of arb, not idea if that is accurate though, but where I got my info from.
 

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i like gabby and ike for 15 as gives us good bench bat as well.
the real issue is C if sanchez D is problematic.
martin's bat is playing better this year, but not as optimistic it will last.

SS defense is OK, but it would be nice to get a 250-270 bat and move people around. hopefully he is just adjusting to the pressure of being the guy and he will pick up. looks like mercers hands are so far away from his body and out over the plate as he preps. too much hand movement whole he is loading.

here's hoping walker found the magic potion and alvarez and cutch never hit in april anyways.

grilli is old and had his magic last year. liriano, cole, and morton will improve.
melancon isn't the closer.
let morris close, watson be set up, and melancon be the 7th inning guy, so you have R-L-R.
wilson was throwing a 90mph fastball on occasion last nite. at least according to game day. that is why he got jacked.is his arm tired. seems like only morris is really cranked up to potential so far this spring.

15 isn't our year, but getting the proper pieces in place for the next 4 year run is what this year really needs to be about. really identifying your leaders. it was great to see cole be assertive against gomez, show some fire and be the aggressor off the mound.
 

element1286

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4 players suspended for Brewers-Pirates incident on Sunday: Martin Maldonado 5 games, Carlos Gomez 3, Travis Snider 2, Russell Martin 1.

Not sure I get the scales, if Martin deserves 1, Maldonado deserves about 40, but whatever.
 
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i like gabby and ike for 15 as gives us good bench bat as well.
the real issue is C if sanchez D is problematic.
martin's bat is playing better this year, but not as optimistic it will last.

SS defense is OK, but it would be nice to get a 250-270 bat and move people around. hopefully he is just adjusting to the pressure of being the guy and he will pick up. looks like mercers hands are so far away from his body and out over the plate as he preps. too much hand movement whole he is loading.

here's hoping walker found the magic potion and alvarez and cutch never hit in april anyways.

grilli is old and had his magic last year. liriano, cole, and morton will improve.
melancon isn't the closer.
let morris close, watson be set up, and melancon be the 7th inning guy, so you have R-L-R.
wilson was throwing a 90mph fastball on occasion last nite. at least according to game day. that is why he got jacked.is his arm tired. seems like only morris is really cranked up to potential so far this spring.

15 isn't our year, but getting the proper pieces in place for the next 4 year run is what this year really needs to be about. really identifying your leaders. it was great to see cole be assertive against gomez, show some fire and be the aggressor off the mound.

Melancon and Watson are both better pitchers than Morris. Morris is in the role in which he belongs. I also think Wilson may have been trying a cutter or slider. There was some movement on the 90 mph pitches which isn't on his usual fastball. He was touching 98 in his previous outing, so I don't think there's a problem with his arm.
 

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morris has closer stuff now with the 2 seam and the 97-98 he is hitting.
melancon has good stuff but not the mentality needed. morris i think does.
melancon is not the replacement of the future for grilli.
morris is better suited for 15-17 as closer.
watson is just so surprisingly efficient and never chokes. but not nasty like morris is growing to be.
 

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morris has closer stuff now with the 2 seam and the 97-98 he is hitting.
melancon has good stuff but not the mentality needed. morris i think does.
melancon is not the replacement of the future for grilli.
morris is better suited for 15-17 as closer.
watson is just so surprisingly efficient and never chokes. but not nasty like morris is growing to be.

I have more faith in Watson than anyone else in the bullpen. I think I like the role he is in even long term, the true closers role, come into a bad situation and get out of it. That is a closer, the guy that pitches the 9th is just a specialist IMO.

That being said, Morris has showed a lot of improvement this season and is now more capable of being that 9th inning specialist down the road.
 

sychmd

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I have more faith in Watson than anyone else in the bullpen. I think I like the role he is in even long term, the true closers role, come into a bad situation and get out of it. That is a closer, the guy that pitches the 9th is just a specialist IMO.

That being said, Morris has showed a lot of improvement this season and is now more capable of being that 9th inning specialist down the road.

agree.
watson does do a great job being able to come into a mess and turn the momentum around with no to minimal damage.and very smoothly and efficiently.
 

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Polanco was 3 for 5 with a homerun tonight.
A rival scout recently gave his opinion about Polanco - he said that he'd be a possible ROY candidate if he gets called up soon enough. Also said that his approach and pitch recognition really stand out. In a recent discussion that included K. Law he was compared to a young Dave Winfield and also Dave Parker.
Now batting .419. No platoon split. No reason to believe that he isn't ready for the majors.

Of course we're not trying to make the playoffs until 2019, so we might as well let him win a few International League MVPs first.

Snider hasn't played particularly well, but tabata has been worse.
I'm really worried about what'll happen to those guys. What if we can't find enough playing time for them? They really need a few more years of development i think. If we keep them around until 2023 i'm sure that we'll be rewarded with a few mediocre seasons here and there.
 

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Polanco was 3 for 5 with a homerun tonight.
A rival scout recently gave his opinion about Polanco - he said that he'd be a possible ROY candidate if he gets called up soon enough. Also said that his approach and pitch recognition really stand out. In a recent discussion that included K. Law he was compared to a young Dave Winfield and also Dave Parker.
Now batting .419. No platoon split. No reason to believe that he isn't ready for the majors.

Of course we're not trying to make the playoffs until 2019, so we might as well let him win a few International League MVPs first.

Snider hasn't played particularly well, but tabata has been worse.
I'm really worried about what'll happen to those guys. What if we can't find enough playing time for them? They really need a few more years of development i think. If we keep them around until 2023 i'm sure that we'll be rewarded with a few mediocre seasons here and there.


I am not sure I understand the Winfield comparison, nothing about Polanco says Winfield to me. But that is just me.

But yes I agree a couple more years of seasoning should do Polanco well, and it is good that Hurdle and Huntington keep seeing positives with Slider and Tabata's games. Unfortunately for us fans those positives have not manifested into on field results.
 

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Not sure if you're playing or not. As for me - i thought that suggesting a few years more development time for polanco was sufficiently ridiculous that it would be obvious that i was being sarcastic.

Polanco is done with AAA.

This is a question of money. There are a number of close games that we've lost that perhaps wouldn't have been so close if we'd had a decent right-fielder. Refusing to bring polanco north with us has already cost us, and will continue to cost us games until he arrives. If he doesn't kick ass at first then it will also cost us games while he's getting acclimated to the bigs. It's also safe to say that no amount of "seasoning" would prevent that hypothetical acclimation period. If there's a year's worth of struggle that he needs to get out of the way then we'd best start him as soon as possible so that we're not fucking up next season as well as this one.
 
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Not sure if you're playing or not. As for me - i thought that suggesting a few years more development time for polanco was sufficiently ridiculous that it would be obvious that i was being sarcastic.

Polanco is done with AAA.

This is a question of money. There are a number of close games that we've lost that perhaps wouldn't have been so close if we'd had a decent right-fielder. Refusing to bring polanco north with us has already cost us, and will continue to cost us games until he arrives. If he doesn't kick ass at first then it will also cost us games while he's getting acclimated to the bigs. It's also safe to say that no amount of "seasoning" would prevent that hypothetical acclimation period. If there's a year's worth of struggle that he needs to get out of the way then we'd best start him as soon as possible so that we're not fucking up next season as well as this one.

Yes I was being sarcastic, there was no reason for Polanco to not start in the majors and there is no good reason for him to not be in the majors today. Wether he struggles or not the team is going to try to sign him long term in a couple years anyway, so it comes down to if they are buying out one or two years of free agency. If the team were going to just let him play out his 6 years of control and let him go, that is one thing, but if they are going to extend him then there is no reason to have him waste a half season in the minors.

In the article the Tim Williams wrote he makes some half arguments, saying that even if Polanco were up they would still be 9-12, however, had he been up and the team scored a run more in each game, the game could have played out differently. I am in no way saying it would have, but the way Polanco is playing there is a very good possibility that at least one game could have had a different outcome.
 

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I'm not interested in reading another tim williams column. He has worn out his welcome.
He acts like he discovered polanco, but he's not even the first fan to write about him (Wilbur Miller btw) let alone the scout who signed him.
His points are terrible too - which is what happens when you're shilling this hard.

First of all - the money spent is already banked. Everybody says "i'd rather not spend just to spend" as justification for failing to address the starting pitching situation, but then when the budgeted money is available and could help us win some games there's always a new excuse.
In the end the message is clear. Nutting can be cheap and dishonest and you're okay with it.
Rather than "48 million" - or whatever ridiculous figure Tim suggested (and that might be a figure from his twitter rather than the article - i forget which...) the cost is a flat 12-15 million which will be spread across the length of Polanco's time with the Pirates. Tim uses a big number to make it seem scary, because it doesn't suit his agenda as well if he admits that it's the same thing as saying we'd have 2.3 million dollars less to spend annually from now until 2020.

He also disguises the true cost of not having polanco in the lineup by intimating that it's "just a couple weeks" - when it's actually a third of the regular season. He also blames grilli for lost games that may not have even been save opportunities if we'd scored another run early in the game. This argument that Tim is making is absolute bullshit, and bordering on dishonest.
 
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