2014 Pirates

[WVUinVegas]

The stats for starting pitching are doodoo compared to last season at this point. Pittsburgh starters are next to dead last in the NL in ERA, #12 in OPS Against and have a 5-19 combined record.

P.U.

 

[element1286]

Theoretically we have an easy schedule in June. However, the way we have been playing, nothing will come easy. If we can't make it to above .500 by the end of June, we should start looking to sell.

The problem with selling this year is that some of the guys that would actually draw interest are players we might possibly look to bring back next year. Examples would be Liriano and Russell Martin. Don't get me wrong, I still think Sanchez will provide more value than Martin, but I don't believe the management team feels the same.

However, that is neither here nor there, if the team starts winning, the entire scenario becomes moot.

A couple observations, I think Josh Harrison should play RF until Polanco comes up. Mercer is starting to hit finally. Lastly, the start to this season is no different from a stat perspective from the last 3 years, except for the fact that we have lost more games.

Well I don't see a sell off, I don't think management would do that unless hopelessly out of it, which I don't think it is likely. I'd rather just take the comp picks with Liriano and Martin if/when they become free agents next year and play out the season.

 

[thedddd]

Just did a quick look on WAR:

Byrd 1.1
Burnett 1.0
Morneau 1.3
Total 3.4

What the Pirates are using:
Snider -.1
Tabata -.2
Volquez -.5
Ishikawa -.3
G. Sanchez -.2
I. Davis -.2

Total -1.5

Difference: 4.9 WAR

If you went by WAR only they would be in second place with the Cards and who knows some of those wins could have been against the Brewers.
You can't blame injuries for their lack of success so far it is complete regression over some of the talent they had last year.

Money spent Other teams:
15,000,000
8,000,000
5,000,000
_________
28,000,000

Pirates:
5,000,000
3,500,000
2,300,000
3,000,000
1,200,000
_________
15,000,000 (*Note did not include Ishikawa's money)

Is 13,000,000 really that big a deal? Also you can say it would be stupid for the Pirates to give all three more than a 1 year deal but remember they will be paying Tabata 4.5 in 2017. Also the only one that would be blocking a player from being recalled is Byrd, Morneau at 1B would have eliminated a need and Burnett this year and next would be fine.


I know I am beating a dead horse with this but it is more of a just think of what could have been so far this year?

 

[element1286]

Only thing though, I don't think most people wanted Byrd or Morneau back, especially Byrd since we already have a glut of OF'ers and a top prospect on the way, and he signed a two year deal.

I know Ike has been not great, but I don't know that Morneau keeps up that pace. Wouldn't be shocked if he finished under that 1.3 number this season honestly.

As for Burnett yea that's the kicker, and the starting pitching has been the main problem.

 

[thedddd]

True on both accounts with Byrd and Morneau, the one thing I find interesting with Morneau he is hitting both at home and on the road. It can be attributed to a hot start and if they signed him I seriously think a platoon with Sanchez would have been pointless, as Morneau should be out there most every day.


As for the Byrd next year deal that wouldn't have hurt as much if they didn't have Tabata tied to 8.5 million for 2015 and 2016.

 

[element1286]

True on both accounts with Byrd and Morneau, the one thing I find interesting with Morneau he is hitting both at home and on the road. It can be attributed to a hot start and if they signed him I seriously think a platoon with Sanchez would have been pointless, as Morneau should be out there most every day.


As for the Byrd next year deal that wouldn't have hurt as much if they didn't have Tabata tied to 8.5 million for 2015 and 2016.

Yeah, Byrd would have been a good 4th OF, not sure that could have worked though in real life, and yea Tabata complicates things.

That entire Rockies team is on some kind of hot streak, not sure what to make of them.

 

[thedddd]

Yeah Byrd as a 4th is not realistic since he is basically just a RF at this point going forward.

 

[thecrow124]

Only thing though, I don't think most people wanted Byrd or Morneau back, especially Byrd since we already have a glut of OF'ers and a top prospect on the way, and he signed a two year deal.

I know Ike has been not great, but I don't know that Morneau keeps up that pace. Wouldn't be shocked if he finished under that 1.3 number this season honestly.

As for Burnett yea that's the kicker, and the starting pitching has been the main problem.

Actually I wanted Byrd back, just not on a multiple year deal. This was for a number of reasons, what we gave up to get him and I really didn't think Polanco would be ready until next year. I was wrong on that one.

The WAR numbers on Ike and Gaby are odd to me, both are hitting the ball fairly well, Gaby is crushing lefties, and they are both sound defensively, so why the negative WAR? Honestly I would take that platoon over having Morneau back.

I think everyone here is on record about Burnett and how that situation was handled incorrectly. I do fond it funny though that pitching has been our biggest problem, and we have 4 starting pitchers pitching well at AAA. I realize none of them have the track record of Liriano or Wandy, and we are also pretty much stuck with those contracts, but at some point don't you have to cut bait and move on? We are on the verge of being out of the playoff picture at some point in June, when do you start leaning one way or the other?

I know that thinking is way to early, I am just tired of seeing the same things over and over again, when you have players in the minors that have earned a spot by outperforming the players that currently have those spots.

 

[element1286]

Yeah Byrd as a 4th is not realistic since he is basically just a RF at this point going forward.

Well, considering Marte, Cutch, and Polanco can play CF, not sure it's as big a deal, just would have to do a lot of shuffling to get him in the lineup.

 

[thedddd]

Great point about the WAR.

One place shows them with the negative WAR and on Fangraphs shows Gaby is a .3 and Davis with a a -.1. Let me go back and use Fangraphs and see what it is there. I should have used Fangraphs in the first place seems to be the most accurate.

 

[thedddd]

This is fangraphs:

Sanchez .3
Ishikawa 0
Davis -.1
Tabata -.2
Snider -.3
Volquez -.4

Total: -.7

Burnett .2
Byrd .5
Morneau 1.2

Total: 1.9

Diff: 2.6

 

[thecrow124]

Great point about the WAR.

One place shows them with the negative WAR and on Fangraphs shows Gaby is a .3 and Davis with a a -.1. Let me go back and use Fangraphs and see what it is there. I should have used Fangraphs in the first place seems to be the most accurate.

Baseball Reference has Gaby at .3 and Ike at .1 with the Pirates and .3 overall this year.

On another little rant for myself, why is Josh Harrison not playing in RF every day? He has a .6 WAR on the season and the second highest OPS on the team(SSS). I am tired of watching Snider and Tabata continually work hard at giving the spot away, meanwhile Harrison has done everything he could possibly do to take the job, but for some reason they just won't let him have it. I say give him the next 3-4 weeks until Polanco comes up to run Tabata and Snider out of Pittsburgh, worst case scenario, is that he proves to the fans that he isn't an everyday player.

 

[thedddd]

Actually I wanted Byrd back, just not on a multiple year deal. This was for a number of reasons, what we gave up to get him and I really didn't think Polanco would be ready until next year. I was wrong on that one.

The WAR numbers on Ike and Gaby are odd to me, both are hitting the ball fairly well, Gaby is crushing lefties, and they are both sound defensively, so why the negative WAR? Honestly I would take that platoon over having Morneau back.

I think everyone here is on record about Burnett and how that situation was handled incorrectly. I do fond it funny though that pitching has been our biggest problem, and we have 4 starting pitchers pitching well at AAA. I realize none of them have the track record of Liriano or Wandy, and we are also pretty much stuck with those contracts, but at some point don't you have to cut bait and move on? We are on the verge of being out of the playoff picture at some point in June, when do you start leaning one way or the other?

I know that thinking is way to early, I am just tired of seeing the same things over and over again, when you have players in the minors that have earned a spot by outperforming the players that currently have those spots.

Thats what frustrates me also. When they called up Decker it should have been Lambo and if they using McCutchen as the reason why Polanco is still in AAA just because it worked for one doesn't mean it will work for the other.

 

[thecrow124]

Thats what frustrates me also. When they called up Decker it should have been Lambo and if they using McCutchen as the reason why Polanco is still in AAA just because it worked for one doesn't mean it will work for the other.

Lambo is on the DL, went to the DL the day before they called up Morel. Had he not gone on the DL, I would like to think he would have been the one called up.

 

[thedddd]

Lambo is on the DL, went to the DL the day before they called up Morel. Had he not gone on the DL, I would like to think he would have been the one called up.

Thanks sorry I missed that.

As for the SP's I hope the Volquez experiment ends soon at least they aren't as tied to him as Liriano or Wandy.

Worley, Locke, Cumpton or Sadler I hope all get extended looks soon.

 

[element1286]

Actually I wanted Byrd back, just not on a multiple year deal. This was for a number of reasons, what we gave up to get him and I really didn't think Polanco would be ready until next year. I was wrong on that one.

The WAR numbers on Ike and Gaby are odd to me, both are hitting the ball fairly well, Gaby is crushing lefties, and they are both sound defensively, so why the negative WAR? Honestly I would take that platoon over having Morneau back.

I think everyone here is on record about Burnett and how that situation was handled incorrectly. I do fond it funny though that pitching has been our biggest problem, and we have 4 starting pitchers pitching well at AAA. I realize none of them have the track record of Liriano or Wandy, and we are also pretty much stuck with those contracts, but at some point don't you have to cut bait and move on? We are on the verge of being out of the playoff picture at some point in June, when do you start leaning one way or the other?

I know that thinking is way to early, I am just tired of seeing the same things over and over again, when you have players in the minors that have earned a spot by outperforming the players that currently have those spots.

Well, Wandy is nearing that point where you might have to cut bait. Liriano, not as much.

You're right about Byrd, on a one year deal, he would have been a good guy to keep.

 

[element1286]

Lambo is on the DL, went to the DL the day before they called up Morel. Had he not gone on the DL, I would like to think he would have been the one called up.

Probably, he was hitting very well too, almost as well as Polanco.

 

[sychmd]

if bucs can win 60% of the rest of their games, they will win 90.
that is a tough pace for 114 games but 90 might be more than they need, but with having to battle
milw - probably won't maintain their pace
stl - will get to 90
cinc - probably not get to 90
atl - will get to 90
wash - probably get close to 90 if players can get off DL
miami - interesting crew, could be the surprise this year
LA - will get over 90 with all their pitching and are much better in the warmer weather months
sf - they will make 90
colorado - will fizzle and come back to earth but be in the mid to possibly high 80's

that leaves atl, stl, and LA/SF as div winners.
SF/LA is the one one card and we are battling it out with
milz, cin, wash, mia, colo.
we have spotted the others a bit of a lead, but we have to be able to build on this momentum and not give back the games we have gained.

who would have thought the mourneau, gi jones, and mcgehee would all be hitting so well. throw in laroche and moss and we have 5 1b around the league that are doing great so far.
throw in batista and aramis and we would have RF and another corner IF option to work with.

who do you think we will battle for the last WC spot. I say it is miami then wash. hopefully the heat sinks miami one the dog days are in full swing.

 

[thecrow124]

Sych, unfortunately I do not believe we have a team capable of playing .600 baseball over the course of a month let alone 4. Maybe if we can pull off a trade for Samardzija or another frontline starter then we would have a chance, but as presently constructed we look to be battling more to stay out of the top ten picks as opposed to competing for a bottom ten pick next year.

I had high hopes coming into the season, but I think losing Burnett hurt more than anyone could realize. On paper it didn't look to be that big, but in reality, the lovely dovey way that this team seems to be probably needed something like his charisma to offset everything. That team chemistry/holding people accountable that we keep hearing about.

 

[sychmd]

we would need some serious pitching help to play .600 ball.
the offense is producing, but usually not early enough in the game for the pitchers to ever relax and pitch with a lead. almost every inning is a high leverage inning.

polanco might give us some earlier leads if he sparks the offense.
but a real lock down starter a la liriano circa 13, would obviously help the odds.
i was not a burnett fan, lots of money for a .500 pitcher, but not sure what his clubhouse influence was.
would settle for morton and liriano being a .500 pitcher.
bummed that taillon doesn't get his feet wet and give us a boost this year.
i like cupmton and am all for sadler getting a shot as we audition for 15. even might be interested to see kingham get a sept call up and exposure to build on to see if he can help in 2105.

on the positive side, getting some good production from walker and davis/gaby has been great. if davis can really be a real contributor as a poor man's cleanup, that will be a great find. gaby is great with the occasional platoon and great late bat against the LHP.

tony sanchez is a great DH, terrible arm.
i think marte, alvarez, and mercer improve finding their place, and have a good 2015 with polanco and cutch being the main players the others get to just fill their roles well.