Who wins NL MVP??

[powerchord86]

Votto could get 5th or 6th. Cutch and Kersh will probably finish ahead of him.

 

[Arizona_Sting]

I'm too lazy to look it up but someone should post the statistic of how much Goldy and Cutch made up of their respective teams offense percentage wise. Without looking I can almost guarantee you Goldy had the biggest impact on his team in the MLB. Maybe minus Cabrera.

 

[MilkSpiller22]

Well since positional value is a thing, not sure how you could just discount it. Plus McCutchen's wRC+ was 155, Votto's was 156. There was essentially no difference between them offensively.

I'd put Votto top 5 for sure.

I Know positional value is a thing and i include in my calculations... My point with WAR, is that it is so high because of the replacement player... How can we reward a player MVP solely because the replacement would not be as good... We are talking about studs, any replacement is going to be used differently than the player they are replacing... Thats why i have been saying i dont include Defensive positions while i calculate offense... I believe they are separate things, both important, but i just dont think they should be calculated together... Saying that Player A is better offensively because of the position they play to me makes no sense...

 

[element1286]

I'm too lazy to look it up but someone should post the statistic of how much Goldy and Cutch made up of their respective teams offense percentage wise. Without looking I can almost guarantee you Goldy had the biggest impact on his team in the MLB. Maybe minus Cabrera.

What exactly does that mean? How are you measuring that?

 

[MilkSpiller22]

Just for the record: under my calculations

Votto- 54.53
Goldy- 54.29
McCutchen- 54.13
Carpenter-53.55
Freeman-50.66

As you can see the top 3 are very close... So i can see any of them winning... I just dont understand why people think it is definitely going to be McCutchen, why nobody is giving credit to votto- why votto is not even top 5...

 

[element1286]

I Know positional value is a thing and i include in my calculations... My point with WAR, is that it is so high because of the replacement player... How can we reward a player MVP solely because the replacement would not be as good... We are talking about studs, any replacement is going to be used differently than the player they are replacing... Thats why i have been saying i dont include Defensive positions while i calculate offense... I believe they are separate things, both important, but i just dont think they should be calculated together... Saying that Player A is better offensively because of the position they play to me makes no sense...

If you include it, how can you say 'How can we reward a player MVP solely because the replacement would not be as good' that is the whole basis of positional value.

Yet, there was essentially no difference in their overall offensive performances.

 

[MilkSpiller22]

If you include it, how can you say 'How can we reward a player MVP solely because the replacement would not be as good' that is the whole basis of positional value.

Yet, there was essentially no difference in their overall offensive performances.

I include position value, but i dont base it on replacement value... I value it differently than WAR does... since i do my own calculations... I do offensive stats separately than defensive stats, so i dont let one affect the other...

Like i said i do my own calculations, so the website that you took your RC+ is irrelevant... Although i do use a variant of the RC27 formula...

 

[element1286]

I include position value, but i dont base it on replacement value... I value it differently than WAR does... since i do my own calculations... I do offensive stats separately than defensive stats, so i dont let one affect the other...

Like i said i do my own calculations, so the website that you took your RC+ is irrelevant... Although i do use a variant of the RC27 formula...

So what is your methodology then?

 

[MilkSpiller22]

I will first say that some formulas need tinkering still:

But
Real Runs Created =47%- 120*(((R+RBI-HR)/PA) + ((R+RBI-HR)/(total team Runs scored)))

Formulas based on RC27=46%- based on On Base factor=Hits+ Walks+ HBP-GIDP-CS
Advancing factor= long formulas
4% defense= 3% is based on position(catcher=100, CF and SS=75,2B=60, the rest of the defensive positions=.55 DH=0) the other 1% is (31-positional dWAR rank)/30

3%= whether or not making the playoffs


That is just a quick look at how i did it... Not saying it is a perfect or even a good system and there are formulas that need tinkering... But i think it makes sense...

 

[Arizona_Sting]

He led in home runs (36), runs batted in (125), slugging percentage (.551), on-base plus slugging percentage (.952) and total bases (332). He also led in intentional walks (19). To add to his resume, Goldy hit .302 with an on-base percentage of .401 (4th in the NL).

Not to mention, he stole 15 bases, scored 103 runs and was a rock of solidarity for the team, playing in 160 games.

As a fielder, Goldschmidt fared well, especially in advanced metrics. His fielding percentage of .997 was No. 2 in the NL. His range factor per game of 10.02 was No. 1. He turned 118 double plays, good for No. 2 in the league. His total zone runs (a combination of stats that show how many runs a player saves defensively) was 12, which was also No. 1.

 

[Arizona_Sting]

Saved more runs than Cutch defensively. Hmm.

 

[Darkstone42]

I include position value, but i dont base it on replacement value... I value it differently than WAR does... since i do my own calculations... I do offensive stats separately than defensive stats, so i dont let one affect the other...

Like i said i do my own calculations, so the website that you took your RC+ is irrelevant... Although i do use a variant of the RC27 formula...

What do you think a replacement player is, exactly?

 

[StanMarsh51]

Saved more runs than Cutch defensively. Hmm.

Is that compared to the average at their position or just a cumulative number?

If it's a cumulative number, wouldn't you need to take that in context vs the number of chances? The average 1B in 2013 had 3.54x more total chances than the average centerfield...

 

[StanMarsh51]

He led in home runs (36), runs batted in (125), slugging percentage (.551), on-base plus slugging percentage (.952) and total bases (332). He also led in intentional walks (19). To add to his resume, Goldy hit .302 with an on-base percentage of .401 (4th in the NL).

Not to mention, he stole 15 bases, scored 103 runs and was a rock of solidarity for the team, playing in 160 games.

As a fielder, Goldschmidt fared well, especially in advanced metrics. His fielding percentage of .997 was No. 2 in the NL. His range factor per game of 10.02 was No. 1. He turned 118 double plays, good for No. 2 in the league. His total zone runs (a combination of stats that show how many runs a player saves defensively) was 12, which was also No. 1.

Is that really a plus when he's getting thrown out 35% of the time?

 

[Darkstone42]

Is that really a plus when he's getting thrown out 35% of the time?

I think the success rate necessary for steals to benefit the team overall sits around 70, so that would make Goldschmidt's stolen base numbers negative value.

 

[Darkstone42]

Goldschmidt, McCutchen, and Molina are, unsurprisingly (to me anyway) the three finalists for the NL MVP.

BBWAA announces finalists for four major awards | MLB.com: News

 

[MilkSpiller22]

Goldschmidt, McCutchen, and Molina are, unsurprisingly (to me anyway) the three finalists for the NL MVP.

BBWAA announces finalists for four major awards | MLB.com: News

Thanks dark... I think they are wrong to include molina and not votto... I dont even have molina in my top 10...

 

[Darkstone42]

Thanks dark... I think they are wrong to include molina and not votto... I dont even have molina in my top 10...

What ten players did you have over Molina?

 

[MilkSpiller22]

What ten players did you have over Molina?

I was wrong he is in my top 10... But way below Matt Carpenter... Matt carpenter had a much better season than yadier... I dont think defensive position should be the reason one should win the mvp(unless they are a special case), i think it should only give an advantage... I dont see any other reason for Molina to be in the top 3 than because he is a catcher... He was not even close to being STL best offensive player, that belongs to matt carpenter...

 

[Darkstone42]

I was wrong he is in my top 10... But way below Matt Carpenter... Matt carpenter had a much better season than yadier... I dont think defensive position should be the reason one should win the mvp(unless they are a special case), i think it should only give an advantage... I dont see any other reason for Molina to be in the top 3 than because he is a catcher... He was not even close to being STL best offensive player, that belongs to matt carpenter...

I think catchers are inherently that valuable, and when one can hit, too, it's huge. Molina bought his young pitchers a lot of strikes with his pitch framing, controlled the running game to the point that opponents didn't even try to run for the most part, was a wall behind the plate so his pitchers could bury two-strike pitches with confidence, and, on top of all of that, was in contention for the NL batting title. He provided elite offense for a catcher and was the best defensive catcher. Only two catchers were better offensively this season than Molina, Mauer and Santana, and the latter was only just barely better (about the same, really), but Molina was the undisputed best defensive catcher in the Majors (again) at a defensive position which is more important than any other.

He was certainly at least a top five candidate, and even though Carpenter had a better offensive season (and a larger WAR), I don't think any player on the Cardinals meant more to that team than Yadier Molina.